scholarly journals Cykl koniunkturalny w Turcji w latach 2005–2020 — interpretacja austriackiej szkoły ekonomii

Ekonomia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-53
Author(s):  
Patrycja Guzikowska
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Austrian School ◽  
Austrian School Of Economics ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Third Phase ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Two Phases ◽  
The Interest Rate

Turkey was hit by the recession, defined in a classic way (as negative real GDP growth lasting at least two quarters), three times over the discussed period. The main goal of the central bank of Turkey is to keep inflation as close as possible to the inflation target. The use of the interest rate as a tool to stabilize the economic situation is therefore limited. The country has experienced periods of high inflation which was not temporary, but long-term. Using the approach appropriate to the Austrian School of Economics, the article analyzes the behavior of the Turkish economy in 2005–2020. In the discussed time horizon, two phases of the business cycle have been identified according to the Austrian School of Economics — the first from 2005 to the first quarter of 2014, and the second from the second quarter of 2014 to 2020. It can be assumed that the Turkish economy will enter the third phase of the business cycle in the near future, although it is difficult to determine when it will happen.

scholarly journals The business cycle: a definition

2021 ◽  
pp. 205-262
Author(s):  
Tuur Demeester
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Austrian School ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
The Core ◽  
Palabras Clave ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Counter Argument

The goal of this article is to properly define the economic phenomenon of the business cycle. The text is rooted in the tradition of the Austrian School of Economics, and the methodological framework builds on concepts developed by Aristotle and Thomas Aquinas. This leads to the development of a few new methodological concepts, such as a re-interpretation of «inflation» and «deflation», and the re-introduction of «imaginary goods» as an important social phenomenon. The core observation of the article is that the business cycle is in fact a subclass of another kind of cycle, the «fraud cycle». Our conclusion is that in order to produce a business cycle, the occurrence of institutional fraud in the sphere of money and banking are both necessary and sufficient. The counter-argument that honest banking can also produce business cycles is refuted in Appendix I. We believe this article is significant in two ways: 1) it provides an unambiguous recipe for the long term extermination of the business cycle; and 2) it helps expand the scope of the Austrian School beyond economics into fields of law and morality. Key words: Business Cycle, Fraud Cycle, Austrian School, money and banking. JEL Classification: B53, B49, D01, K13. Resumen: El objetivo de este artículo es definir apropiadamente el fenómeno económico del ciclo económico. El resto está enraizado en la tradición de la Escuela Austriaca de Economía, y el marco metodológico parte de los conceptos desarrollados por Aristóteles y Tomás de Aquino. Esto conduce al desarrollo de algunos conceptos metodológicos nuevos, tales como la reinterpretación de la «inflación» y la «deflación», y la reintroducción de los «bienes imaginarios» como un fenómeno social importante. La observación central de este artículo es que el ciclo económico es de hecho una subclase de otro tipo de ciclo, el «ciclo del fraude». Nuestra conclusión es que para producir un ciclo económico, la existencia de un fraude institucional en la esfera del dinero y la banca es una condición necesaria y suficiente. El Apéndice I refuta el contra-argumento de que una banca honesta también puede producir ciclos económicos. Creemos que este artículo es significativo por dos motivos: 1) ofrece una receta clara para la eliminación del ciclo económico; y 2) ayuda a expandir el ámbito de la Escuela Austriaca más allá del campo de la Economía hacia los campos del Derecho y la Moralidad. Palabras clave: Ciclo económico, ciclo del fraude, Escuela Austriaca, dinero y banca. Clasificación JEL: B53, B49, D01, K13.

A NOTE ON INFLATION PERSISTENCE IN A FAIR WAGE MODEL OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 673-684 ◽  
Author(s):  
David de la Croix ◽  
Gregory de Walque ◽  
Rafael Wouters
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Marginal Cost ◽  
Inflation Persistence ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Fair Wage ◽  
The Business Cycle

We generalize existing fair wage models to allow effort to vary over the business cycle. When effort is variable, wage fluctuations are partially compensated for by endogenous effort fluctuations, so that the sensitivity of marginal cost to output and employment variations is decreased. This new mechanism decreases the need for sluggishness to explain the observed high inflation persistence.

scholarly journals Taxes and the Structure of Production

1998 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Walter Block
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Structure Of Production

Abstract In Austrian theory, the business cycle is caused by expansive monetary policy, which artificially lowers the interest rate below equilibrium rates, necessarily lengthening the structure of production. Can tax alterations also cause an Austrian business cycle? Only if they affect time preference rates, the determinant of the shape of the Hayekian triangle. It is the contention of this paper that changes in taxes possibly can (but need not) impact time preference rates. Thus there may be a causal relation between fiscal policy and the business cycle, but this is not a necessary connection, as there is between monetary policy and the business cycle. This is contentious, since some Austrians argue that there is a praxeological link between tax policy and time preference rates.

Business-cycle fluctuations in economic activity

2021 ◽  
pp. 105-125
Author(s):  
Jesper Rangvid
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Growth Trend ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Two Phases

This chapter explains what the business cycle is and what causes business-cycle fluctuations. We call fluctuations in economic activity around the long-term growth trend ‘the business cycle’. The business cycle consists of two phases. The first is a period of strong economic activity. The second, following the first, is a period of weak economic activity. We call the first phase of the business cycle an ‘expansion’ and the second phase a ‘contraction’ or ‘recession’. The chapter explains what causes business cycles, and examines the empirical evidence on the lengths and strengths of the typical business cycle. It finds that expansions typically last longer than recessions. The chapter also shows that the length of expansions has increased during recent decades.

The Capital-Using Economy

2015 ◽  
pp. 144-163
Author(s):  
Peter Lewin ◽  
Howard Baetjer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Austrian Economics ◽  
Austrian School ◽  
Capital Theory ◽  
Austrian Capital Theory ◽  
Austrian Capital ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Main Ideas

Capital theory is fundamental to everything else in Austrian economics. It lies at its core, implicit in discussions of monetary policy, the business cycle, the entrepreneur, and the subjectivity of value and expectations. Prior to the Keynesian revolution, it was capital theory for which the Austrian school was most known among mainstream economists. With the advent of Keynesian macroeconomics, interest in capital theory all but disappeared. But it has recently been the subject of increasing attention. After a brief overview of the main ideas in Austrian capital theory (ACT) from its origins and extensions through the middle of the last century, this chapter notes this rekindled interest and surveys recent applications, including its connection to complexity studies, management studies, entrepreneurship, and macroeconomic policy.

scholarly journals Response of Market Returns to Inflation News: Asymmetry Based on the Level of Inflation

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Yasemin Ulu
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Asymmetric Response ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
News Asymmetry ◽  
Daily Returns

Using daily data we look at S&P500 returns to inflation news during the period 1980-2002, where we categorize the data into sub-periods based on the level of inflation and the phase of economic cycle. We find that although stock market’s reaction to inflation news is generally negative, the response appears to depend on the level of prevailing inflation and phase of the business cycle. Specifically, we find that on the day of inflation announcement daily returns during periods of low inflation and low risks of recession respond positively to inflation news in recessionary states. Our results show that while high inflation weighs on market returns, low inflation creates positive returns opportunities when the economy faces low risks of recession. Asymmetric response of daily returns to inflation news depending on the level of inflation is an interesting novel finding.

scholarly journals The causes of the Japanese deflationary crisis in the light of the Austrian school of economics

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-48
Author(s):  
Bartosz Karpiński
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Relevant Literature ◽  
Austrian School ◽  
Japanese Economy ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Remarkable Case ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Austrian School Of Economics ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle

The aim of this study is an attempt to indicate the causes of deflationary crises through the presentation of the phenomenon of deflation and its causes in the light of the Austrian school of economics and to show that the most remarkable case of deflation in recent history, which took place in Japan confirms the Austrian assertions in respect of factors causing severe deflation. For this purpose, basing on relevant literature, the author presents the Austrian view on the concept of deflation and the main aspects of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. Subsequently, the author analyzes the monetary policy of Japan in the period preceding deflation, pointing out the facts from the contemporary Japanese economy seem to confirm the assertions of the Austrian school of economics.

scholarly journals Changes in Wages and Cyclical Fluctuations in Lithuania in View of the Austrian School of Economics

2019 ◽  
pp. 83-102
Author(s):  
Andrzej Jędruchniewicz
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Deductive Reasoning ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Wage Structure ◽  
Austrian School ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Austrian School Of Economics ◽  
Cyclical Fluctuations

The aim of the paper was to evaluate the usefulness of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT) in explaining the changes in the wage structure occurring during different phases of the business cycle. Research methods applied are consistent with the methodological viewpoint of the Austrian School of Economics (ASE), using a mix of deductive reasoning and statistical analysis.The analysis of data on wage developments in various sectors of the Lithuanian economy in a cyclical environment has allowed confirming the research hypothesis almost entirely. The study has demonstrated that from 2004 to 2013 during expansion and contraction phases the most dynamic change in wages occurred in sectors that were in the early stages of production, i.e. most distant from consumption, and were producing the most durable consumer durables.Empirical verification of arguments formulated by the ASE is very rare. In global economic literature such studies of changes in the labour market during cyclical fluctuations are scarce. This study fills this gap by confronting the ASE theory with wage changes in a real-life economy.

Application of filters to analysis of business cycles and business cycle synchronization of Poland with European countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (10) ◽  
pp. 5-18
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Beck
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Price Level ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Business Cycle Synchronization ◽  
Quarterly Data ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
The Business Cycle

The aim of this paper is to present the importance of business cycle synchronization between Poland and other European countries. The Hodrick- Prescott and Christiano-Fitzgerald filters were used in the research. They were applied to extract cyclical components from quarterly time series of real GDP of 33 European countries basing on the Eurostat’s quarterly data on nominal GDP and price level in the years 2002—2016. The application of filters proved that, in case of some countries (e.g. Greece), the economic crisis led not only to a drop of GDP but also to a break in the trend. Moreover, the results indicate that most European countries overcame the crisis at the end of 2015. The business cycle synchronization of Poland with euro area countries is slowly increasing.

scholarly journals Oil Price Volatility and Business Cycles in Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oziengbe Scott Aigheyisi
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Government

AbstractThe effect of oil price volatility on the business cycle (measured as fluctuations in real GDP) in Nigeria is investigated, while controlling for effects of other variables such as inflation, exchange rate, money supply, trade openness and foreign direct investment. Volatility in real GDP and oil price is generated through the EGARCH process. The ARDL approach to cointegration and error correction modeling is employed for analysis of data covering the period from 1970 to 2015. The study finds positive and significant short-run effect of oil price volatility on real GDP volatility, and no significant long-run effect. The short-run and long-run effects of other variables on business cycle (real GDP volatility) in Nigeria are not statistically significant. This suggests that short-run fluctuations in real GDP are engendered mainly by oil price volatility. This could be attributed to the precarious dependence of the country on oil export. The paper recommends channeling of efforts by the government towards diversifying the productive base and exports of the country as measure to reduce volatility in the real GDP.

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