scholarly journals COVID-19 w Polsce — sekwencja epidemii według modelu SIR

Ekonomia ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-73
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Pastuszka ◽  
Sławomir Pastuszka

The paper aims to indicate the duration and intensity of the COVID-19 epidemic in Poland. To achieve this goal, the SIR interval model was used. The study was based on data from the Central Statistical Office, Hopkins University, and the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva. Based on the analysis results, it was established that the prognosis of the epidemic’s course largely depends on the size of the adopted R virus reproduction coefficient. The higher the coefficient, the more rapid the predicted course of the epidemic, the shorter the duration, and the greater the number of infected. And vice versa: the smaller the coefficient, the milder its course, the longer its duration, and the smaller the number of infected. For this reason, it is important to accurately assess the intensity of the epidemic’s development measured by the virus renewal rate, depending on the nature and intensity of interpersonal contacts. Perhaps in a given country different values of the coefficient for urbanized and rural areas should be used.

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 523
Author(s):  
Andrzej Rosner ◽  
Monika Wesołowska

Since the Second World War, Poland has been undergoing an intensive process of transformation of the economic structure of rural areas, manifested, among other things, in the change in the occupational make-up of its inhabitants. The development of non-agricultural methods of management in rural areas has led to the emergence of multifunctional rural areas, where the role of agriculture as a source of income for the inhabitants is decreasing. There is a process of deagrarianisation of the economic structure, which has been indicated by many researchers as an unavoidable process, connected with the changes taking place in rural areas. One of the effects of this process are changes in rural settlement patterns. The aim of this article is to present the spatial effects of the deagrarianisation process in the Polish countryside, expressed in the changes in the rural settlement network. The authors used the statistical database of the Central Statistical Office (over 41 thousand records) to draw up the classification of rural areas by the nature of changes in population numbers in the period 1950–2011, which was compared with the research carried out as part of the Monitoring of Rural Development in Poland. The study confirmed that the factor behind the evolution of the rural settlement network is the process of decreasing agricultural demand for labour. As a consequence, there is a polarisation of localities into multifunctional rural localities, mainly headquarter villages and local government offices, and those with a predominantly agricultural function. On a supra-local scale, a process of polarisation of rural areas between a growing suburban population and a reducing peripheral location around large and medium-sized towns has been observed.


Author(s):  
Alicja Stolarska

The paper presents income situation of Polish rural households in 2005 –2012. The research material came from unpublished empirical studies of Central Statistical Office . Changes of income level and structure of main income sources of the livelihoods were presented. Growing importance of wage from off-farm jobs and a decline of the share of income from agriculture was observed. The author indicated differences in the economic situation of the population living in rural areas and of individual incomes of the families, which suggests the need of checking the activities of the regional policy in relation to rural areas. Conclusions from the analysis are confirmed by the answers of the respondents. According to them, “very good” and “good” levels of income in rural families (over 18% in 2012) came from all sources, including social benefits. Declining share of expenditures reflects positive trends in Polish rural areas after EU accession as well as possibilities of further structural and social changes in rural areas.


Author(s):  
Nina Drejerska ◽  
Mariola Chrzanowska

Agriculture, forestry and fishing have been still a very important part of the labour market. However, the situation is diversified across Polish subregions. The objective of the study is to investigate sectoral employment diversification in rural areas across Polish subregions (NUTS 3). In order to do it, data on the subregional employment structure provided by the Central Statistical Office of Poland was used for computation of spatial autocorrelation described by Moran’s statistics. Results of this analysis display for example a cluster of subregions in south-east Poland, where employment in agriculture, forestry and fishing is a significant trend of predominantly rural subregions.


2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-26
Author(s):  
Roman Kisiel ◽  
Iwona Pietruszewska ◽  
Andrzej Andrzej

This paper analyses the influence of the implementation of milk quotas on the dairy sector and the situation of milk producers in the province of Warmia and Mazury and describes the changes taking place in the milk market from 2004-2009 in milk production, processing and management. The research material originated from a questionnaire-based survey conducted by the Chair of Economic and Regional Policy of the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn in close collaboration with the Agricultural Market Agency (AMA). The survey encompassed 313 milk producers from the province of Warmia and Mazury during the quota year of 2009/2010. The remaining data referenced in the publication originated from materials developed by the AMA, the Agency for Restructuring and Modernisation of Agriculture (ARMA), the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MoA) and the Central Statistical Office (GUS). The milk production quota system was intended to prevent excessive supply of raw material on the market and trigger concentration processes in the dairy sector. On the basis of the AMA studies results, it was determined that in the six years following milk production quotas, almost 3,500 producers withdrew from the market. Additionally, an analysis of data made available by the AMA indicates that the volume of milk produced has been constantly increasing (during the years 2004-2010 the volume of wholesale milk sold from a single supplier per year increased by 58.11% in the area of the province of Warmia and Mazury).


Author(s):  
Romana Głowicka-Wołoszyn ◽  
Joanna Stanisławska ◽  
Andrzej Wołoszyn

The aim of the study was to compare the housing conditions of the population living in rural and urban areas of Wielkopolska province communes. The multidimensional assessment of housing conditions was carried out using the TOPSIS method. The research drew on 2016 data published by the Central Statistical Office in the Local Data Bank. The housing conditions in rural areas of the Wielkopolska province were found to be significantly worse than in urban areas. Over 38% of all examined urban areas and only 5% of rural areas (mainly located in the Poznań Metropolitan Area) were classified as Class I with the highest level of housing conditions. Class IV – with the lowest level of housing conditions – included as many as 25% of rural areas and only one urban area located in a mixed, urban-rural commune. In many of the studies, dynamic, beneficial changes in housing conditions in rural areas are emphasized despite the continuous worse situation of rural areas compared to cities. However, due to the observed suburbanisation processes in rural areas in the vicinity of large urban agglomerations, it would be necessary to distinguish living transformations in these rural areas, from changes in housing conditions in rural areas that perform typical agricultural functions.


Author(s):  
Paulina Stolarczyk ◽  
Michał Wielechowski

The aim of the paper was to present and assess the economic activity of disabled people on the Polish labour market from a country, voivodship, and Masovian Voivodship rural areas’ perspective. The study used data from the Labour Force Survey in Poland collected by the Central Statistical Office and original data collected by a questionnaire, using public institutions, NGOs and direct interviews. The adopted research period covered the years 2007-2018. Japanese candlestick charting as well as tabular and selected statistical methods were used to present the research results. Levels of analysed Polish labour market indicators for disabled people increased noticeably in the analysed period, however persisted significantly below those for non-disabled people. At a voivodship level, the study showed that rates and changes of economic activity in the group of disabled people differed visibly. The highest economic activity rates were observed in the Subcarpathian, Lubusz and Holy Cross voivodships, while the lowest in the West Pomeranian and Lesser Poland voivodships. In 15 voivodships, the unemployment rate decreased significantly in the analysed period. Survey results highlighted a relatively high employment rate and low earnings rates in the researched group of disabled people from the Masovian Voivodship, where the level of education had a significant positive impact on those rates.


2016 ◽  
Vol 58 (3) ◽  
pp. 163-169
Author(s):  
Adam Kaliszewski ◽  
Wojciech Młynarski ◽  
Piotr Gołos

Abstract The aim of the paper is to present the potential for afforestation of agricultural lands under the ‘National Programme for Expanding of Forest Cover’ (KPZL) in Poland until 2020. The analysis is based on the ongoing social and economic changes in rural areas in the past decade as well as factors limiting implementation of the Programme. The data used have been derived from annual reports of the Agricultural Property Agency (ANR), the Central Statistical Office and also other official documents and legal acts related to the issue. Assuming that the area of agricultural lands transferred by the ANR to the State Forests Holding – an institution responsible for implementing the KPZL on state-owned lands – remains approximately 350 ha per year, the overall extent of afforestation on state-owned lands will not exceed 4,500–4,600 ha until 2020. In case of private lands, a further decline in annual afforestation area will be observed. The lack of a stable financing system is a major reason for the decrease in the area of agricultural lands transferred for afforestation. The projections show that the average annual afforestation area on private lands will not exceed 2,500 ha until 2020. Altogether, it can be expected that during the period 2015–2020, approximately 20,000 ha of agricultural lands will be afforested. The study shows that the current rate of afforestation is insufficient for reaching the target defined in the KPZL (afforestation of 680,000 ha of lands during the period 2001–2020). Low supply of private lands for afforestation and insufficient financial support for farmers are the most important factors limiting the implementation of the KPZL. The situation could be improved by free transfer of public lands for afforestation from the ANR to the State Forests Holding and by implementing financial instruments for afforestation of private lands from the Forest Fund resources.


Author(s):  
Alicja Stolarska

On the basis of unpublished data from GUS (Central Statistical Office), in the years 2014-2016, as well as a review of literature, an analysis of the socio-economic situation of rural women, who make a living by running own non-agricultural businesses, was conducted. Income stemming from various sources of earnings was compared with reference to the situation on the labour market. Rural women were characterized on the basis of various types of self-employment undertaken, underlining the major role of such forms of labour in levelling out opportunities and the development of rural areas. Their average age was 45 and the number of people in the family 3.8. Only 2.4% of female entrepreneurs were from single-person households. Types of non-agricultural entrepreneurship were presented, where trade prevailed and 25.9% of entrepreneurs also employed other employees. By applying the coefficient of variation, many differences in the household income of female entrepreneurs were noted.


Author(s):  
Agnieszka Kozera ◽  
Joanna Stanisławska

The main objective of this article is to assess the level and identify occurring differences in the level of housing conditions of the population of rural municipalities in a selected metropolitan area in Poland in 2004 and 2019. The Poznań Metropolitan Area (POM) was analysed. Studies were carried out based on data from the Local Data Bank of Statistics Poland (Polish Central Statistical Office). In the first stage of the study, selected indicators that illustrate the housing conditions of municipalities situated in the POM in comparison with other rural municipalities in the Wielkopolskie voivodeship were evaluated. In the second part of the study, a synthetic assessment of the level of housing conditions and their changes over time in rural municipalities located in the POM was carried out using the TOPSIS method. As a result of ongoing demographic changes in rural areas around Poznań, associated with the phenomenon of suburbanisation and the change in the functionality of these areas, which perform residential and service functions increasingly often, the level of housing conditions of the population is clearly improving. Better housing conditions distinguish rural municipalities situated in the POM in relation to other rural municipalities outside this area, yet the latter are distinguished by higher dynamics of changes in housing conditions in numerous study aspects.


2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-59 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adrienn Nagy ◽  
Henrietta Nagy

Abstract Tourism has been a determining factor in the economic growth of Hungary recently and it will continue to have a significant role in the future development of the country. Although Hungary has great potentials in tourism sector, it is concentrated only on a few places of the country at present, especially in the capital, Budapest. While tourism has about 10% share in the national GDP production, most of it is generated in the capital. In addition, to the center of the country, there are only a few places that are really known by foreign tourists and thus are able to attract crowds. Such places are Lake Balaton, the largest lake in Europe; and the city of Debrecen, the second largest city in the country, with its surroundings and several thermal baths. The aim of our paper is to analyze the tendencies of Hungarian tourism, focusing on the festivals, and to follow the changes of the tourism strategies, as well as the direct and indirect effects of the development of the tourism industry on the economic growth of the country. In order to prepare our study, we have collected information on tourism from the Central Statistical Office, from the organizers of the different festivals throughout the country and from the National Tourism Office. Based on our research, we intend to draw consequences on the sector and define recommendations for further developments, because we believe that festivals can be the solution for the sustainable economic and social development of several rural areas, providing income for a huge part of population in the countryside.


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