scholarly journals THAI BUSINESS CYCLE FROM MACROECONOMIC MODEL USING BVAR AND MS-BVAR METHODS

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 452-466
Author(s):  
Disorn Siriphirunphong ◽  
◽  
Chukiat Chaiboonsri ◽  
Anuphak Saosaovaphak ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Thai Business

Collateral Shocks

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-103
Author(s):  
Yvan Becard ◽  
David Gauthier
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Lending Standards ◽  
Joint Dynamics ◽  
The Business Cycle

We estimate a macroeconomic model on US data where banks lend to households and businesses and simultaneously adjust lending requirements on the two types of loans. We find that the collateral shock, a change in the ability of the financial sector to redeploy collateral, is the most important force driving the business cycle. Hit by this unique disturbance, our model quantitatively replicates the joint dynamics of output, consumption, investment, employment, and both household and business credit quantities and spreads. The estimated collateral shock generates accurate movements in lending standards and tracks measures of market sentiment. (JEL E21, E23, E24, E32, E44, G21)

scholarly journals Asymmetric Attention

2021 ◽  
Vol 111 (9) ◽  
pp. 2879-2925
Author(s):  
Alexandre N. Kohlhas ◽  
Ansgar Walther
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Limited Attention ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Expectation Formation ◽  
Rational Theory ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
New Information

We document that the expectations of households, firms, and professional forecasters in standard surveys simultaneously extrapolate from recent events and underreact to new information. Existing models of expectation formation, whether behavioral or rational, cannot account for these observations. We develop a rational theory of extrapolation based on limited attention, which is consistent with this evidence. In particular, we show that limited, asymmetric attention to procyclical variables can explain the coexistence of extrapolation and underreactions. We illustrate these mechanisms in a microfounded macroeconomic model, which generates expectations consistent with the survey data, and show that asymmetric attention increases business cycle fluctuations. (JEL C53, D83, D84, E23, E27, E32)

scholarly journals Predicting turning points in the South African economy

2003 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 289-303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elna Moolman
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
South African ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Economic Indicator ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
The South ◽  
Macroeconomic Models ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
The Business Cycle

Despite the existence of macroeconomic models and complex business cycle indicators, it would be beneficial to policymakers and market participants if they could look at one well-chosen indicator in predicting business cycle turning points. If one indicator accurately predicts business cycle turning points, it provides an easy way to confirm the predictions of macroeconomic models, or it can eliminate the need for a macroeconomic model if the interest is in the turning points and not in the levels of the business cycle. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether turning points of the South African business cycle can be predicted with only one economic indicator.

scholarly journals Emergent inequality and business cycles in a simple behavioral macroeconomic model

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (27) ◽  
pp. e2025721118
Author(s):  
Yuki M. Asano ◽  
Jakob J. Kolb ◽  
Jobst Heitzig ◽  
J. Doyne Farmer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Economic Dynamics ◽  
Household Decision ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Poor Households ◽  
Savings Rate ◽  
Optimal Value ◽  
Savings Rates

Standard macroeconomic models assume that households are rational in the sense that they are perfect utility maximizers and explain economic dynamics in terms of shocks that drive the economy away from the steady state. Here we build on a standard macroeconomic model in which a single rational representative household makes a savings decision of how much to consume or invest. In our model, households are myopic boundedly rational heterogeneous agents embedded in a social network. From time to time each household updates its savings rate by copying the savings rate of its neighbor with the highest consumption. If the updating time is short, the economy is stuck in a poverty trap, but for longer updating times economic output approaches its optimal value, and we observe a critical transition to an economy with irregular endogenous oscillations in economic output, resembling a business cycle. In this regime households divide into two groups: poor households with low savings rates and rich households with high savings rates. Thus, inequality and economic dynamics both occur spontaneously as a consequence of imperfect household decision-making. Adding a few “rational” agents with a fixed savings rate equal to the long-term optimum allows us to match business cycle timescales. Our work here supports an alternative program of research that substitutes utility maximization for behaviorally grounded decision-making.

scholarly journals Beyond Keynes and the Classics. Outline of the Goods Side/Money Side Model of the Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Configurations

2021 ◽  
pp. 111-135
Author(s):  
Antony P. Mueller
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Macroeconomic Analysis ◽  
Palabras Clave ◽  
Demand Models ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Basic Features

This paper presents the goods side/money side (GSMS) model as a novel way of macroeconomic analysis. The GSMS model goes beyond Keynesianism as it makes a sharp distinction between the goods side and the money side and thus avoids the indistinctness between real nominal values that come with spending in aggregate demand models. The GSMS model transcends classical macroeconomics in its traditional and modern versions as it reinstates money as an active factor in the economy. Different from monetarism, the key monetary concept of the GSMS model is «macroeconomic liquidity», which includes velocity of circulation. The present paper presents the basic features of the model and shows its use by analyzing macroeconomic configurations, the business cycle, and economic growth. The paper includes an appendix with an evaluation of macroeconomic configurations in the light of the GSMS model. Key words: GSMS Macroeconomic Model, Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle (ATB). JEL Classification: A23, E32, E52. Resumen: Este trabajo presenta el modelo lado del mercado de bienes/lado del mercado de dinero (GSMS) como una nueva forma de análisis macro-económico. El modelo GSMS va más allá del keynesianismo, ya que hace una clara distinción entre el lado de los bienes y el lado del dinero y, por tanto, evita la ausencia de diferenciación entre los valores nominales y reales que vienen con el gasto en los modelos de demanda agregada. El modelo GSMS trasciende la macroeconomía clásica en sus versiones tradicional y moderna, ya que restituye al dinero un rol activo en la economía. A diferen-cia del monetarismo, el concepto monetario clave del modelo GSMS es la «liquidez macroeconómica», que incluye la velocidad de circulación. El pre-sente artículo presenta las características básicas del modelo y muestra su uso mediante el análisis de configuraciones macroeconómicas, el ciclo eco-nómico y el crecimiento económico. El documento incluye un apéndice con una evaluación de configuraciones macroeconómicas a la luz del modelo GSMS. Palabras clave: Modelo Macroeconómico GSMS, Política Monetaria, Cre - cimiento Económico, Teoría Austriaca del Ciclo Económico. Clasificación JEL: A23, E32, E52.

scholarly journals The Economics of Bernard Lonergan: Context, Modelling and Assessment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Oslington
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Bernard Lonergan ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Graduate Course ◽  
Boston College ◽  
Context Modelling ◽  
The Business Cycle

Bernard Lonergan S.J. (1904-84) is unusual among major theologians in engaging deeply with economic theory. In the 1940s he developed his own dynamic multisectoral macroeconomic model, informed by reading of Smith, Marx, Keynes, Hayek, Schumpeter, and later Kalecki. Lonergan’s economic research is little known because the economic manuscripts were not published in his lifetime, and his interactions with professional economists were limited. In the 1970s, however, when he returned to economics he engaged with Post-Keynesians and taught a graduate course on macroeconomics at Boston College until illness overtook him. This paper places Lonergan’s economic research in the context of his overall intellectual project, outlines his macroeconomic model and associated theory of the business cycle, then evaluates his contribution in relation to mid-twentieth century macroeconomics and considers whether it has anything to offer contemporary economists. Whatever view we take of his theoretical contributions, Lonergan’s work opens up connections between economics and theology.

Forming Sources of Long-run Growth: How to Understand Them?

2014 ◽  
pp. 4-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Idrisov ◽  
S. Sinelnikov-Murylev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Accelerate Growth ◽  
Budget Institutions

The paper analyzes the inconsequence and problems of Russian economic policy to accelerate economic growth. The authors consider three components of growth rate (potential, Russian business cycle and world business cycle components) and conclude that in order to pursue an effective economic policy to accelerate growth, it has to be addressed to the potential (long-run) growth component. The main ingredients of this policy are government spending restructuring and budget institutions reform, labor and capital markets reforms, productivity growth.

Russia’s fiscal stimulus and fiscal sustainability

2013 ◽  
pp. 90-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Akindinova ◽  
N. Kondrashov ◽  
A. Cherniavsky
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Macroeconomic Model ◽  
Sharp Drop ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Fiscal Multipliers ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of public expenditure on economic growth in Russia. Fiscal multipliers for various items of government spending are calculated by means of our macroeconomic model of the Russian economy. Resources for fiscal stimulus and optimization are analyzed. In this study we assess Russia’s fiscal sustainability in conditions of various levels of oil prices. We conclude that fiscal stimulus is ineffective in Russia, while fiscal sustainability in conditions of a sharp drop in oil prices is relatively low.

Debates on monetary policy issues and economic situation: Searching for constructive comments

2016 ◽  
pp. 25-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mogilat ◽  
Y. Achkasov ◽  
A. Egorov ◽  
A. Klimovets ◽  
S. Donets
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Policy Analysis ◽  
Economic Situation ◽  
Policy Issues ◽  
Macroeconomic Conditions

The article discusses approaches and instruments used in the Bank of Russia public analytical materials for analysis and forecast of macroeconomic conditions and monetary indicators. The authors focus on indicators of business cycle and monetary conditions, as crucial for monetary policy analysis. The attention is paid to issues most frequently discussed in scientific and expert literature, specifically, to new indicators and models presented in the Bank of Russia Monetary Policy Reports in 2015.

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