scholarly journals Keterkaitan Antar Bursa Efek Dunia (Studi Kasus pada Bursa Efek Negara Maju dan Negara Berkembang)

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Muhammad Madyan ◽  
Haka Adila ◽  
Novian Abdi Firdausi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
Stock Exchanges ◽  
Subprime Mortgage ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Stock Indexes ◽  
Second Period

This research analyzes the correlation between stock markets worldwide. Developing countries stock exchanges are represented by China and Indonesia, whereas developed countries stock exchanges are represented by Germany, Japan, Australia, Singapore, and the United States. Using stock’s daily close prices as data, then assessed with Vector Error Correction Model and Granger Causality. Analyzed indexes are Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SHCOMP), Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Nikkei225 (NKY), Deutscher Aktien Index (DAX), All Ordinaries Index (AOI), and Strait Times Index (STI). Stock data grouped into two periods, the first period is the Asian Financial Crisis in 1 January 1998-31 December 2003, while second period is the Subprime Mortgage crisis in 1 January 2008-31 December 2013. Research results show correlations between analyzed stock indexes in both long run and short run relationship in the firstperiod as well asthe second period, however the correlation between Singapore’s and Indonesia’s stock exchange in second period is unproven.

scholarly journals Studying the Stock Market – Economic Activity Nexus in Poland with a VAR‑VECM Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (348) ◽  
pp. 65-89
Author(s):  
Piotr Pietraszewski
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Stock Market Performance ◽  
Short Run

The paper discusses the links between stock market performance and real economic activity and presents results of an empirical inquiry into dynamic relationships between the main stock index quoted on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WIG) and GDP in Poland over the years 1995–2019. In many empirical studies for highly developed countries not only short‑run dynamic interactions but also a long‑run cointegrating relationship between the stock index and output have been found. Previous studies for Poland reported mainly short‑run linkages between stock returns and changes of economic activity whereas the evidence for a long‑run cointegrating relationship is still quite scarce. In this paper, the VAR‑VECM methodology with the Johansen tests for cointegration is used to study a substantially longer quarterly data interval than has been investigated so far. Research results show that stock returns Granger‑cause GDP growth with up to three‑quarters lead. The evidence for the existence of a long‑term cointegrating relationship has also been found.

scholarly journals The Co-Movement between Shariah Compliant and Sectorial Stock Indexes Performance in Bursa Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 515-524
Author(s):  
Mohammad Sahabuddin ◽  
Junaina Muhammad ◽  
Mohamed Hisham Dato' HjYahya ◽  
Sabarina Mohammed Shah ◽  
Mohammad Mizanur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Index Stock ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Stock Indexes

Islamic financial market is the growing innovation of global financial market which moves together with conventional and sectorial counterpart in many countries. As the fastest growing investment component, Shariah compliant stock index in Bursa Malaysia has picked up positive momentum and attracted more attention to the investors, policy makers, issuers and researchers. The main objective of this study is to investigate the co-movement between Shariah compliant stock and sectorial stocks indexes performance in Bursa Malaysia using a standard time series techniques. For understanding a long run and short run co-movement among the Shariah compliant stock index, composite stock index and sectorial stock indexes, a co-integration approach, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) have been applied respectively in this study. In addition, Granger causality test have been adopted to determine the lead-lag relationship. The findings show that in the long run, Shariah compliant index stock price and sectorial indexes stock price move together but in short run, speed of adjustment varies among the variables. Ganger causality test shows that there are bidirectional, unidirectional and no causality relationships between Shariah compliant and sectorial indexes.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

Enhancing Economic Growth and Government Revenue Generation in Nigeria: The Role of Diaspora Remittances

2021 ◽  
pp. 003464462110256
Author(s):  
Dal Didia ◽  
Suleiman Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Even though remittances constitute the second-largest source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, with a $24 billion inflow in 2018, its impact on economic growth remains unclear. This study, therefore, examined the short-run and long-run impact of remittances on the economic growth of Nigeria using the vector error correction model. Utilizing World Bank data covering 1990–2018, the empirical analysis revealed that remittances hurt economic growth in the short run while having no impact on economic growth in the long run. Our parameter estimates indicate that a 1% increase in remittances would result in a 0.9% decrease in the gross domestic product growth rate in the short run. One policy implication of this study is that Nigeria needs to devise policies and interventions that minimize the emigration of skilled professionals rather than depending on remittances that do not offset the losses to the economy due to brain drain.

scholarly journals Do Erratic Rainfalls Hamper Grain Production? Analysis of Supply Response of Rice to Price and Non-Price Factors

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1463
Author(s):  
Ghulam Mustafa ◽  
Azhar Abbas ◽  
Bader Alhafi Alotaibi ◽  
Fahd O. Aldosri
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Supply Response ◽  
Target Time ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Increasing rice production has become one of the ultimate goals for South Asian countries. The yield and area under rice production are also facing threats due to the consequences of climate change such as erratic rainfall and seasonal variation. Thus, the main aim of this work was to find out the supply response of rice in Malaysia in relation to both price and non-price factors. To achieve this target, time series analysis was conducted on data from 1970 to 2014 using cointegration, unit root test, and the vector error correction model. The results showed that the planted area and rainfall have a significant effect on rice production; however, the magnitude of the impact of rainfall is less conspicuous for off-season (season 2) rice as compared to main-season rice (season 1). The speed of adjustment from short-run to long-run for season-1 rice production is almost two-and-a-half years (five production seasons), while for season-2 production, it is only about one-and-a-half year (three production seasons). Consequently, the study findings imply the supply of water to be enhanced through better water infrastructure for both seasons. Moreover, the area under season 2 is continuously declining to the point where the government has to make sure that farmers are able to cultivate the same area for rice production by providing uninterrupted supply of critical inputs, particularly water, seed and fertilizers.

scholarly journals International trade in services and inequalities

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1069-1075 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvain Petit
Keyword(s):  
Wage Inequality ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Business Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Unskilled Workers ◽  
Tourism Services ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of the international openness in tourism services trade on wage inequality between highly skilled, semi-skilled, and unskilled workers in the tourism industry. The sample covers 10 developed countries and expands over 15 years. A cointegrated panel data model and an error correction model were used to distinguish between the short- and long-run effects. The results are compared to those of openness of business services and manufactured goods. The findings point out that tourism increases wage inequality at the expense of the least skilled workers in the long run and the short run.

Does educational progress impact energy consumption? A causality test for India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Soumen Rej ◽  
Barnali Nag
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Supply ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Educational Advancement ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose Both energy and education have been positioned as priority objectives under the itinerary of UN development goals. Hence, it is necessary to address the implicit inter relationship between these two development goals in the context of developing nations such as India who are trying to grow in both per capita income and socio economic factors whilst struggling with the challenges of a severe energy supply constrained economy. Design/methodology/approach In the present study, the causal relationship between energy consumption per capita and education index (EI) as a proxy of educational advancement is investigated for India for 1990–2016 using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and vector error correction model. Findings The empirical results infer although energy consumption per capita and EI lack short run causality in either direction, existence of unidirectional long run causality from EI to per capita energy consumption is found for India. Further, it is observed that energy consumption per capita takes around four years to respond to unit shock in EI. Research limitations/implications The findings from this study imply that with the advancement of education, a rise in per capita energy consumption requirement can be foreseen on the demand side, and hence, India’s energy policy needs to emphasize further its sustainable energy supply goals to meet this additional demand coming from a population with better education facilities. Originality/value The authors hereby confirm that this manuscript is entirely their own original study and not submitted elsewhere.

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Mongolia

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 211-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gan-Ochir Doojav
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

For resource-rich developing economies, the effect of real exchange rate depreciation on trade balance may differ from the standard findings depending on country specific characteristics. This article employs vector error correction model to examine the effect of real exchange rate on trade balance in Mongolia, a resource-rich developing country. Empirical results show that exchange rate depreciation improves trade balance in both short and long run. In particular, the well-known Marshall–Lerner condition holds in the long run; however, there is no evidence of the classic J-curve effects in the short run. The results suggest that the exchange rate flexibility may help to deal effectively with current account deficits and exchange rate risk. JEL Classification: C32, C51, F14, F32

scholarly journals The spatial integration of potato wholesale markets of Uttarakhand in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 20-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Kumar ◽  
R Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Spatial Integration ◽  
Market Information ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Price Demand

This paper analyzes the spatial integration of potato markets in Uttarakhand using monthly wholesale price for ten years. The maximum likelihood method of cointegration developed by Johansen (1988) was used in the study. The dynamics of short-run price responses were examined using vector error correction model (VECM). The results indicated that five potato markets reacted on the long-run cointegrating equations while the speed of price adjustment in the short-run was almost absent. Moreover, it was found that the longer the distance between the markets, the weaker the integration was. To increase the efficiency of potato markets in Uttarakhand, there is need to focus on building an improved market information system. This system should be able to disseminate timely market information about price, demand and supply of produce to enable producers, traders and consumers to make proper production and marketing decisions.SAARC J. Agri., 14(2): 20-30 (2016)

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