scholarly journals A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Using Fractional Derivative: Outbreak in India with Dynamics of Transmission and Control

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amjad S. Shaikh ◽  
Iqbal N. Shaikh ◽  
Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Fixed Point Theory ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Approximation Technique ◽  
Transform Method ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control

Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) detected on Jan 30, 2020, in India, the number of cases rapidly increased to 3819 cases including 106 deaths as of 5 April 2020. Taking this into account, in the present work, we are studying a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission fractional-order COVID-19 model for simulating the potential transmission with the thought of individual social response and control measures by the government. The real data available about infectious cases from $14^{th}$ March to $26^{th}$ March 2020 is analysed and accordingly various parameters of the model are estimated or fitted. The Picard successive approximation technique and Banach's fixed point theory have been used for verification of the existence and stability criteria of the model. Numerical computations are done utilizing the iterative Laplace transform method. In the end, we illustrate the obtained results graphically. The purpose of this study is to estimate the effectiveness of preventive measures, predicting future outbreaks and potential control strategies using the mathematical model.

scholarly journals Epidemiological Characteristics of Confirmed Cases and Nepal’s Response for Prevention and Control of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-35
Author(s):  
Sasmita Poudel
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Government ◽  
Using Data ◽  
And Control ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Introduction: The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Wuhan, China. "COVID- 19 has already spread worldwide with the total number of 2,241, 778 confirmed cases and 152, 551 deaths. There are 31 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Nepal as of 19 April 2020." This article aims to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the context of Nepal and discuss prevention and control measures taken by the Government of Nepal (GoN). Methods: The epidemiological characteristics of 31 confirmed cases in Nepal were analyzed using data available from a daily press release and Nepal situation report published by the Ministry of Health and Population, GoN. The data were analyzed and presented using SPSS and Arc GIS. Results: Of these 31confirmed cases, 29 (93.5%) cases were imported into the country and 2 (6.5%) were suspected to be secondary cases originating in Nepal either through the family contact or community contact. Among the confirmed cases, 77.4% are males and four cases have already been recovered. The mean age of confirmed cases in Nepal is 36.7 years, with the age ranging from 19 years to 81 years with the highest number (13) reported from province 1.The highest number of cases (14) were reported on 17 April 2020. Conclusion: The distribution of confirmed cases varied with age, sex, and geographical location. The cases are high in males, in the age group of 20-29 years, and in Udayapur district of Province 1. Most of the confirmed cases in Nepal was reported among the individuals who have recently returned to Nepal from foreign countries with evidence of local transmission in the country linked with the imported cases. Different prevention and control strategies are being implemented at the provincial and national levels with the expansion of laboratory facilities for testing COVID-19.

scholarly journals Optimization of the Controls against the Spread of Zika Virus in Populations

Computation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Gilberto González-Parra ◽  
Miguel Díaz-Rodríguez ◽  
Abraham J. Arenas
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Optimal Control ◽  
Zika Virus ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Information Campaigns ◽  
Control Functions ◽  
Cost Efficient

In this paper, we study and explore two control strategies to decrease the spread of Zika virus in the human and mosquito populations. The control strategies that we consider in this study are awareness and spraying campaigns. We solve several optimal control problems relying on a mathematical epidemic model of Zika that considers both human and mosquito populations. The first control strategy is broad and includes using information campaigns, encouraging people to use bednetting, wear long-sleeve shirts, or similar protection actions. The second control is more specific and relies on spraying insecticides. The control system relies on a Zika mathematical model with control functions. To develop the optimal control problem, we use Pontryagins’ maximum principle, which is numerically solved as a boundary value problem. For the mathematical model of the Zika epidemic, we use parameter values extracted from real data from an outbreak in Colombia. We study the effect of the costs related to the controls and infected populations. These costs are important in real life since they can change the outcomes and recommendations for health authorities dramatically. Finally, we explore different options regarding which control measures are more cost-efficient for society.

scholarly journals Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore

2007 ◽  
Vol 136 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. N. BURATTINI ◽  
M. CHEN ◽  
A. CHOW ◽  
F. A. B. COUTINHO ◽  
K. T. GOH ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Mixed Strategy ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Dengue Infection ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Other ◽  
Effective Strategy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Dengue Epidemics

SUMMARYNotified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13 817 cases) and the reason for such an increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004–2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient in preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.

scholarly journals Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuiyuan Guo ◽  
Dan Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Individual Based Model ◽  
Whole Process ◽  
Coordinate Descent Algorithm ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

AbstractWe established a stochastic individual-based model and simulated the whole process of occurrence, development, and control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and the infectors and patients leaving Hubei Province before the traffic was closed in China. Additionally, the basic reproduction number (R0) and number of infectors and patients who left Hubei were estimated using the coordinate descent algorithm. The median R0 at the initial stage of the epidemic was 4.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.82–5.17). Before the traffic lockdown was implemented in Hubei, 2000 (95% CI 1982–2030) infectors and patients had left Hubei and traveled throughout the country. The model estimated that if the government had taken prevention and control measures 1 day later, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in the whole country would have increased by 32.1%. If the lockdown of Hubei was imposed 1 day in advance, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in other provinces would have decreased by 7.7%. The stochastic model could fit the officially issued data well and simulate the evolution process of the epidemic. The intervention measurements nationwide have effectively curbed the human-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the measures was assessed. Results A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit the reported data well (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would have reached a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would have been 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proven effective; increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

Hong Kong’s response to COVID-19: a glance to the control measures and their enforcement

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ka Ki Lawrence Ho ◽  
Ying-Tung Chan
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control ◽  
Viral Outbreak

Purpose This study aims to examine Hong Kong’s responses to COVID-19, arguing that Hong Kong’s relatively low infection rate is due to self-discipline of citizens together with the enforcement measures introduced by the government. Design/methodology/approach This study reviewed the government policy announcements and the prevailing scholarly analyses on Hong Kong society during COVID-19. Findings It starts by examining the partial lockdown and control measures since mid-January, and the roles of different government units in enforcement were examined and assessed. Suppression of viral outbreak in Hong Kong should primarily be attributed to the appropriate lockdown and quarantine actions of the government. Originality/value However, outperformance of the frontline professionals and the highly aware, self-disciplined and mutually aided citizens in the community are also the key to the “interim success” by June 2020 in the highly accessible and densely populated city.

scholarly journals Early transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Mudatsir Mudatsir ◽  
Synat Keam ◽  
Wira Winardi ◽  
Amanda Yufika ◽  
Ali A. Rabaan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surveillance System ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Disease Surveillance System ◽  
First Case ◽  
Directorate General ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control ◽  
Importation Risk

The objective of this study was to determine the transmission dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and to evaluate the vigilance of the health system during the early phase of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Indonesia. The early epidemiology and transmission chains of COVID-19 were analyzed based on data from the Directorate General of Disease Prevention and Control of the Indonesian Ministry of Health. The results of this study shown although Indonesia is a country with a high relative importation risk of SARS-CoV-2, the first two cases of COVID-19 were identified on March 2, 2020. This relatively late date by regional standards raises the possibility of undetected cases beforehand. The first case was a foreigner citizen who visited the capital city of Jakarta and later was diagnosed COVID-19 after returning from Indonesia. One week later after the first case, 27 confirmed COVID-19 cases had been reported in Indonesia, and the majority of the cases were clustered together. Apart from the possibility of underdetection of COVID-19 cases in the country, the government has strengthened the disease surveillance system and established an outbreak preparedness system to diagnose and control COVID-19. 

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Sudan

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (02) ◽  
pp. 204-208
Author(s):  
Ayman Ahmed ◽  
Nouh Saad Mohamed ◽  
Sarah Misbah EL-Sadig ◽  
Lamis Ahmed Fahal ◽  
Ziad Bakri Abelrahim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Systems ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Religious Practices ◽  
Mass Gathering ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
High Case Fatality Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control

The steadily growing COVID-19 pandemic is challenging health systems worldwide including Sudan. In Sudan, the first COVID-19 case was reported on 13th March 2020, and up to 11 November 2020 there were 14,401 confirmed cases of which 9,535 cases recovered and the rest 3,750 cases were under treatment. Additionally, 1,116 deaths were reported, indicating a relatively high case fatality rate of 7.7%. Several preventive and control measures were implemented by the government of Sudan and health partners, including the partial lockdown of the country, promoting social distancing, and suspending mass gathering such as festivals and performing religious practices in groups. However, new cases still emerging every day and this could be attributed to the noncompliance of the individuals to the advocated preventive measurements.

The Study of the Beijing Traffic Noise Pollution Control Countermeasures

2014 ◽  
Vol 641-642 ◽  
pp. 853-859
Author(s):  
Wei Wang ◽  
Hui Zhao ◽  
Guan Xing Wang ◽  
Hua Zhen Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Road Traffic ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Traffic Noise ◽  
Noise Pollution ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Road Traffic Noise ◽  
Typical Time ◽  
The Status ◽  
And Control

Traffic noise is a major source of noise pollution in the urban environment, including road traffic noise and rail traffic noise, which has become one of the domestic large and medium cities in environmental issues to be solved. This paper analyzes the status of the Beijing traffic noise pollution and control strategies, and a typical apartment block selected as a case, analyzes its noise pollution elements, severity, time distribution, and draws a noise map of the plane area and a dormitory building in the noise conditions typical time. Last we discussed and gave the method based on noise control measures.

scholarly journals Research of Jiles-Atherton Dynamic Model in Giant Magnetostrictive Actuator

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Yongguang Liu ◽  
Xiaohui Gao ◽  
Chunxu Chen
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Structural Parameters ◽  
Hysteresis Loops ◽  
Structural Dynamic ◽  
Magnetostrictive Actuator ◽  
Output Characteristics ◽  
And Control ◽  
Minor Hysteresis Loops

Due to the existence of multicoupled nonlinear factors in the giant magnetostrictive actuator (GMA), building precise mathematical model is highly important to study GMA’s characteristics and control strategies. Minor hysteresis loops near the bias magnetic field would be often applied because of its relatively good linearity. Load, friction, and disc spring stiffness seriously affect the output characteristics of the GMA in high frequency. Therefore, the current-displacement dynamic minor loops mathematical model coupling of electric-magnetic-machine is established according to Jiles-Atherton (J-A) dynamic model of hysteresis material, GMA structural dynamic equation, Ampere loop circuit law, and nonlinear piezomagnetic equation and demonstrates its correctness and effectiveness in the experiments. Finally, some laws are achieved between key structural parameters and output characteristics of GMA, which provides important theoretical foundation for structural design.

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