scholarly journals Epidemiological Characteristics of Confirmed Cases and Nepal’s Response for Prevention and Control of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-35
Author(s):  
Sasmita Poudel
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Government ◽  
Using Data ◽  
And Control ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Introduction: The first case of COVID-19 was reported in Wuhan, China. "COVID- 19 has already spread worldwide with the total number of 2,241, 778 confirmed cases and 152, 551 deaths. There are 31 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Nepal as of 19 April 2020." This article aims to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the context of Nepal and discuss prevention and control measures taken by the Government of Nepal (GoN). Methods: The epidemiological characteristics of 31 confirmed cases in Nepal were analyzed using data available from a daily press release and Nepal situation report published by the Ministry of Health and Population, GoN. The data were analyzed and presented using SPSS and Arc GIS. Results: Of these 31confirmed cases, 29 (93.5%) cases were imported into the country and 2 (6.5%) were suspected to be secondary cases originating in Nepal either through the family contact or community contact. Among the confirmed cases, 77.4% are males and four cases have already been recovered. The mean age of confirmed cases in Nepal is 36.7 years, with the age ranging from 19 years to 81 years with the highest number (13) reported from province 1.The highest number of cases (14) were reported on 17 April 2020. Conclusion: The distribution of confirmed cases varied with age, sex, and geographical location. The cases are high in males, in the age group of 20-29 years, and in Udayapur district of Province 1. Most of the confirmed cases in Nepal was reported among the individuals who have recently returned to Nepal from foreign countries with evidence of local transmission in the country linked with the imported cases. Different prevention and control strategies are being implemented at the provincial and national levels with the expansion of laboratory facilities for testing COVID-19.

scholarly journals A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Using Fractional Derivative: Outbreak in India with Dynamics of Transmission and Control

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amjad S. Shaikh ◽  
Iqbal N. Shaikh ◽  
Kottakkaran Sooppy Nisar
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Fixed Point Theory ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Approximation Technique ◽  
Transform Method ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control

Since the first case of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) detected on Jan 30, 2020, in India, the number of cases rapidly increased to 3819 cases including 106 deaths as of 5 April 2020. Taking this into account, in the present work, we are studying a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission fractional-order COVID-19 model for simulating the potential transmission with the thought of individual social response and control measures by the government. The real data available about infectious cases from $14^{th}$ March to $26^{th}$ March 2020 is analysed and accordingly various parameters of the model are estimated or fitted. The Picard successive approximation technique and Banach's fixed point theory have been used for verification of the existence and stability criteria of the model. Numerical computations are done utilizing the iterative Laplace transform method. In the end, we illustrate the obtained results graphically. The purpose of this study is to estimate the effectiveness of preventive measures, predicting future outbreaks and potential control strategies using the mathematical model.

scholarly journals Should we remain hopeful? The key 8 weeks: Spatiotemporal epidemic characteristics of COVID-19 in Sichuan Province and its comparative analysis with other provinces in China and global epidemic trends

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinyin Xu ◽  
Jing Zeng ◽  
Runyou Liu ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Xiaobo Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Sichuan Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
First Case ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
And Control ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background: The COVID-19 spread worldwide quickly. Exploring the epidemiological characteristics could provide a basis for responding to imported cases abroad and to formulate prevention and control strategies in areas where COVID-19 is still spreading rapidly. Methods: The number of confirmed cases, daily growth, incidence and length of time from the first reported case to the end of the local cases (i.e., non-overseas imported cases) were compared by spatial (geographical) and temporal classification and visualization of the development and changes of the epidemic situation by layers through maps. Results: In the first wave, a total of 539 cases were reported in Sichuan, with an incidence rate of 0.6462/100,000. The closer to Hubei the population centres were, the more pronounced the epidemic was. The peak in Sichuan Province occurred in the second week. Eight weeks after the Wuhan lockdown, the health crisis had eased. The longest epidemic length at the city level in China (except Wuhan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) was 53 days, with a median of 23 days. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of China showed positive spatial correlation (Moran's Index >0, p<0.05). Most countries outside China began to experience a rapid rise in infection rates 4 weeks after their first case. Some European countries experienced that rise earlier than the USA. The pandemic in Germany, Spain, Italy, and China took 28, 29, 34, and 18 days, respectively, to reach the peak of daily infections, after their daily increase of up to 20 cases. During this time, countries in the African region and Southeast Asian region were at an early stage of infections, those in the Eastern Mediterranean region and region of the Americas were in a rapid growth phase. Conclusions: After the closure of the outbreak city, appropriate isolation and control measures in the next 8 weeks were key to control the outbreak, which reduced the peak value and length of the outbreak. Some countries with improved epidemic situations need to develop a continuous "local strategy at entry checkpoints" to respond to a possible second local epidemic.

scholarly journals Should we remain hopeful? The key 8 weeks: spatiotemporal epidemic characteristics of COVID-19 in Sichuan Province and its comparative analysis with other provinces in China and global epidemic trends

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinyin Xu ◽  
Jing Zeng ◽  
Runyou Liu ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Xiaobo Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Sichuan Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
First Case ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
And Control ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background The COVID-19 spread worldwide quickly. Exploring the epidemiological characteristics could provide a basis for responding to imported cases abroad and to formulate prevention and control strategies in areas where COVID-19 is still spreading rapidly. Methods The number of confirmed cases, daily growth, incidence and length of time from the first reported case to the end of the local cases (i.e., non-overseas imported cases) were compared by spatial (geographical) and temporal classification and visualization of the development and changes of the epidemic situation by layers through maps. Results In the first wave, a total of 539 cases were reported in Sichuan, with an incidence rate of 0.6462/100,000. The closer to Hubei the population centres were, the more pronounced the epidemic was. The peak in Sichuan Province occurred in the second week. Eight weeks after the Wuhan lockdown, the health crisis had eased. The longest epidemic length at the city level in China (except Wuhan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) was 53 days, with a median of 23 days. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of China showed positive spatial correlation (Moran’s Index > 0, p < 0.05). Most countries outside China began to experience a rapid rise in infection rates 4 weeks after their first case. Some European countries experienced that rise earlier than the USA. The pandemic in Germany, Spain, Italy, and China took 28, 29, 34, and 18 days, respectively, to reach the peak of daily infections, after their daily increase of up to 20 cases. During this time, countries in the African region and Southeast Asian region were at an early stage of infections, those in the Eastern Mediterranean region and region of the Americas were in a rapid growth phase. Conclusions After the closure of the outbreak city, appropriate isolation and control measures in the next 8 weeks were key to control the outbreak, which reduced the peak value and length of the outbreak. Some countries with improved epidemic situations need to develop a continuous “local strategy at entry checkpoints” to to fend off imported COVID-19.

scholarly journals Should we remain hopeful? The key 8 weeks: Spatiotemporal epidemic characteristics of COVID-19 in Sichuan Province and its comparative analysis with other provinces in China and global epidemic trends

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinyin Xu ◽  
Jing Zeng ◽  
Runyou Liu ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Xiaobo Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Sichuan Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
First Case ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
And Control ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background: The COVID-19 spread worldwide quickly. Exploring the epidemiological characteristics could provide a basis for responding to imported cases abroad and to formulate prevention and control strategies in areas where COVID-19 is still spreading rapidly.Methods: The number of confirmed cases, daily growth, incidence and length of time from the first reported case to the end of the local cases (i.e., non-overseas imported cases) were compared by spatial (geographical) and temporal classification and visualization of the development and changes of the epidemic situation by layers through maps.Results: In the first wave, a total of 539 cases were reported in Sichuan, with an incidence rate of 0.6462/100,000. The closer to Hubei the population centres were, the more pronounced the epidemic was. The peak in Sichuan Province occurred in the second week. Eight weeks after the Wuhan lockdown, the health crisis had eased. The longest epidemic length at the city level in China (except Wuhan, Taiwan, and Hong Kong) was 53 days, with a median of 23 days. Spatial autocorrelation analysis of China showed positive spatial correlation (Moran's Index >0, p<0.05). Most countries outside China began to experience a rapid rise in infection rates 4 weeks after their first case. Some European countries experienced that rise earlier than the USA. The pandemic in Germany, Spain, Italy, and China took 28, 29, 34, and 18 days, respectively, to reach the peak of daily infections, after their daily increase of up to 20 cases. During this time, countries in the African region and Southeast Asian region were at an early stage of infections, those in the Eastern Mediterranean region and region of the Americas were in a rapid growth phase.Conclusions: After the closure of the outbreak city, appropriate isolation and control measures in the next 8 weeks were key to control the outbreak, which reduced the peak value and length of the outbreak. Some countries with improved epidemic situations need to develop a continuous "local strategy at entry checkpoints" to to fend off imported COVID-19.

scholarly journals Should we keep hope? Key 8 weeks - Spatiotemporal epidemic characteristics of COVID-19 in Sichuan Province and its comparative analysis with other provinces in China and global epidemic trend

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinyin Xu ◽  
Jing Zeng ◽  
Runyou Liu ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Xiaobo Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean Region ◽  
Sichuan Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Local Case ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
And Control ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background: To compare the epidemiological characteristics of Sichuan Province, other provinces in China and the world epidemic trends by analyzing the prevalence and length of epidemic time. in order to provide a basis for responding to imported cases abroad and to formulate prevention and control strategies in areas that are still rapidly circulating.Methods: The number of confirmed cases, daily growth, incidence and the length of time from the first reported case to the end of local case(non-overseas imported cases) were compared by spatial and temporal (geographical, temporal) classification. Visualizing the development and changes of epidemic situation by layer through maps.Results: In the first wave, total of 539 cases were reported in Sichuan Province, with the incidence rate of 0.6462 / 100,000. The closer to Hubei, the heavier the epidemic. The peak of Sichuan Province came earlier and the value was lower. Eight weeks after Wuhan lockdown, all became better. The longest epidemic length in city level of China was 53 days, median 23 days. It was released quickly in the 1st month, and accelerated in the 2ed month (three times of 1st month). Most countries outside China began to rise rapidly 4 weeks after their first case. Some European countries was earlier than USA. Germany, Spain, Italy, and China cost 28, 29, 34, and 18 days to reached the peak of daily increment, after their daily increase up to 20 cases. Countries in African Region and South-East Asia Region were at the early stage, in Eastern Mediterranean Region and Region of the Americas were at rapid growth phase,in European presented an inflection point or at a plateau period but falling slowly.Conclusions: Adopting appropriate isolation and control measures is necessary to actively respond to the epidemic situation. If effective measures were implemented at the 8 key weeks, the peak value of the confirmed cases will be lower and decrease quickly. Some countries with improved epidemic situations also need to develop a continuous "local strategy at entry checkpoints" to respond to a possible second local epidemic.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing mechanism of the COVID-19 epidemic in Shandong province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinlong Shi ◽  
Xing Gao ◽  
Shuyan Xue ◽  
Fengqing Li ◽  
Qifan Nie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Shandong Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Aged People ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
And Control

AbstractThe novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) outbreak that emerged in late 2019 has posed a severe threat to human health and social and economic development, and thus has become a major public health crisis affecting the world. The spread of COVID-19 in population and regions is a typical geographical process, which is worth discussing from the geographical perspective. This paper focuses on Shandong province, which has a high incidence, though the first Chinese confirmed case was reported from Hubei province. Based on the data of reported confirmed cases and the detailed information of cases collected manually, we used text analysis, mathematical statistics and spatial analysis to reveal the demographic characteristics of confirmed cases and the spatio-temporal evolution process of the epidemic, and to explore the comprehensive mechanism of epidemic evolution and prevention and control. The results show that: (1) the incidence rate of COVID-19 in Shandong is 0.76/100,000. The majority of confirmed cases are old and middle-aged people who are infected by the intra-province diffusion, followed by young and middle-aged people who are infected outside the province. (2) Up to February 5, the number of daily confirmed cases shows a trend of “rapid increase before slowing down”, among which, the changes of age and gender are closely related to population migration, epidemic characteristics and intervention measures. (3) Affected by the regional economy and population, the spatial distribution of the confirmed cases is obviously unbalanced, with the cluster pattern of “high–low” and “low–high”. (4) The evolution of the migration pattern, affected by the geographical location of Wuhan and Chinese traditional culture, is dominated by “cross-provincial” and “intra-provincial” direct flow, and generally shows the trend of “southwest → northeast”. Finally, combined with the targeted countermeasures of “source-flow-sink”, the comprehensive mechanism of COVID-19 epidemic evolution and prevention and control in Shandong is revealed. External and internal prevention and control measures are also figured out.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effectiveness of measures to control the novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Jilin Province, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinglong Zhao ◽  
Yao Wang ◽  
Meng Yang ◽  
Meina Li ◽  
Zeyu Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Reported Data ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Based on differences in populations and prevention and control measures, the spread of new coronary pneumonia in different countries and regions also differs. This study aimed to calculate the transmissibility of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to control the disease in Jilin Province, China. Methods The data of reported COVID-19 cases were collected, including imported and local cases from Jilin Province as of March 14, 2019. A Susceptible–Exposed–Infectious–Asymptomatic–Recovered/Removed (SEIAR) model was developed to fit the data, and the effective reproduction number (Reff) was calculated at different stages in the province. Finally, the effectiveness of the measures was assessed. Results A total of 97 COVID-19 infections were reported in Jilin Province, among which 45 were imported infections (including one asymptomatic infection) and 52 were local infections (including three asymptomatic infections). The model fit the reported data well (R2 = 0.593, P < 0.001). The Reff of COVID-19 before and after February 1, 2020 was 1.64 and 0.05, respectively. Without the intervention taken on February 1, 2020, the predicted cases would have reached a peak of 177,011 on October 22, 2020 (284 days from the first case). The projected number of cases until the end of the outbreak (on October 9, 2021) would have been 17,129,367, with a total attack rate of 63.66%. Based on the comparison between the predicted incidence of the model and the actual incidence, the comprehensive intervention measures implemented in Jilin Province on February 1 reduced the incidence of cases by 99.99%. Therefore, according to the current measures and implementation efforts, Jilin Province can achieve good control of the virus’s spread. Conclusions COVID-19 has a moderate transmissibility in Jilin Province, China. The interventions implemented in the province had proven effective; increasing social distancing and a rapid response by the prevention and control system will help control the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals The increasing menace of dengue in Guangzhou, 2001–2016: the most important epicenter in mainland China

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhoubin Zhang ◽  
Qinlong Jing ◽  
Zongqiu Chen ◽  
Tiegang Li ◽  
Liyun Jiang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Infectious Disease Reporting ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
System Data ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne disease in the world, with China affected seriously in recent years. 65.8% of dengue cases identified in mainland China since 2005 were reported from the city of Guangzhou. Methods In this study, we described the incidence rate and distribution of dengue cases using data collected form National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System data in Guangzhou for 2001 to 2016. All dengue cases were investigated using standardized questionnaire. Results A total of 42,469 dengue cases were reported, with an average annual incidence rate of 20.99 per 100,000 resident population. Over this time period, the incidence rate of indigenous cases increased. Dengue affected areas also expanded sharply geographically from 58.1% of communities affected during 2001–2005 to 96.4% of communities affected in 2011–2016. Overall 95.30% of the overseas imported cases were reported during March and December, while 99.79% of indigenous cases were reported during July and November. All four dengue virus serotypes were identified both in imported cases and indigenous cases. The Aedes albopictus mosquito was the only vector for dengue transmission in the area. Conclusions Guangzhou has become the dengue epicenter in mainland China. Control strategies for dengue should be adjusted to the epidemiological characteristics above and intensive study need to be conducted to explore the factors that driving the rapid increase of dengue.

scholarly journals Notes from the Field: Effectiveness of Prevention and Control Measures for Imported COVID-19 in Guangming District of Shenzhen

2020 ◽  
pp. 016327872097183
Author(s):  
Xiaoliang Chen ◽  
Tieqiang Wang ◽  
Yang Zhao ◽  
Yunjie Wu ◽  
Ranran Qie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Screening Strategy ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Returning To Work ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
And Control

Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was present in most provinces of China after January 2020. We implemented a surveillance and screening strategy that included early detection of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases and people who were exposed to the disease in Guangming District of Shenzhen. Separate targeted treatment and management strategies were applied to confirmed and suspected cases. From January 23 to March 13, 2020, we found 12 suspected cases, and 11 were confirmed as positive. Although eight of the 11 confirmed cases were family-aggregated, they were all imported cases with common exposure, which did not further cause local community transmission, and no medical staff were infected. After February 14, when the last case was confirmed, there were no newly confirmed cases for 28 consecutive days under the strict outbreak control. The targeted and whole-society involved prevention and control measures prevented the spread of the disease in a very short time and provided a strong guarantee for the orderly recovery of returning to work and social activities.

scholarly journals Forecast Possible Risk for COVID-19 Epidemic Dissemination under Current Control Strategies in Japan

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 3872 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongxiang Chen ◽  
Jun Yang ◽  
Binxiang Dai
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Current Control ◽  
Self Healing ◽  
Current State ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Times ◽  
Robust Measures ◽  
And Control

COVID-19 has globally spread to over 4 million people and the epidemic situation in Japan is very serious. The purpose of this research was to assess the risk of COVID-19 epidemic dissemination in Japan by estimating the current state of epidemic dissemination and providing some epidemic prevention and control recommendations. Firstly, the period from 6 January to 31 March 2020 was divided into four stages and the relevant parameters were estimated according to the imported cases in Japan. The basic reproduction number of the current stage is 1.954 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.851–2.025), which means COVID-19 will spread quickly, and the self-healing rate of Japanese is about 0.495 (95% CI 0.437–0.506), with small variations in the four stages. Secondly, the results were applied to the actual reported cases from 1 to 5 April 2020, verifying the reliability of the estimated data using the accumulated reported cases located within the 95% confidence interval and the relative error of forecast data of five days being less than 2.5 % . Thirdly, considering the medical resources in Japan, the times the epidemic beds and ventilators become fully occupied are predicted as 5 and 15 May 2020, respectively. Keeping with the current situation, the final death toll in Japan may reach into the millions. Finally, based on experience with COVID-19 prevention and control in China, robust measures such as nationwide shutdown, store closures, citizens isolating themselves at home, and increasing PCR testing would quickly and effectively prevent COVID-19 spread.

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