scholarly journals Projected epidemiological consequences of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in England, December 2021 to April 2022

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosanna C Barnard ◽  
Nicholas G Davies ◽  
Carl A B Pearson ◽  
Mark Jit ◽  
W John Edmunds
Keyword(s):  
Health Outcomes ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Immune Escape ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Gene Target ◽  
S Gene ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The Omicron B.1.1.529 SARS-CoV-2 variant was first detected in late November 2021 and has since spread to multiple countries worldwide. We model the potential consequences of the Omicron variant on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and health outcomes in England between December 2021 and April 2022, using a deterministic compartmental model fitted to epidemiological data from March 2020 onwards. Because of uncertainty around the characteristics of Omicron, we explore scenarios varying the extent of Omicron's immune escape and the effectiveness of COVID-19 booster vaccinations against Omicron, assuming the level of Omicron's transmissibility relative to Delta to match the growth in observed S gene target failure data in England. We consider strategies for the re-introduction of control measures in response to projected surges in transmission, as well as scenarios varying the uptake and speed of COVID-19 booster vaccinations and the rate of Omicron's introduction into the population. These results suggest that Omicron has the potential to cause substantial surges in cases, hospital admissions and deaths in populations with high levels of immunity, including England. The reintroduction of additional non-pharmaceutical interventions may be required to prevent hospital admissions exceeding the levels seen in England during the previous peak in winter 2020-2021.

scholarly journals Living with COVID-19: The road ahead

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (8) ◽  
pp. 619-628
Author(s):  
Wycliffe Enli Wei ◽  
Wei Keat Tan ◽  
Alex Richard Cook ◽  
Li Yang Hsu ◽  
Yik Ying Teo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
The Road ◽  
Mild Disease ◽  
The World ◽  
Response Measures ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Endemic State

ABSTRACT Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the world for more than a year, with multiple waves of infections resulting in morbidity, mortality and disruption to the economy and society. Response measures employed to control it have generally been effective but are unlikely to be sustainable over the long term. Methods: We examined the evidence for a vaccine-driven COVID-19 exit strategy including academic papers, governmental reports and epidemiological data, and discuss the shift from the current pandemic footing to an endemic approach similar to influenza and other re spiratory infectious diseases. Results: A desired endemic state is characterised by a baseline prevalence of infections with a generally mild disease profile that can be sustainably managed by the healthcare system, together with the resumption of near normalcy in human activities. Such an endemic state is attainable for COVID-19 given the promising data around vaccine efficacy, although uncertainty remains around vaccine immunity escape in emergent variants of concern. Maintenance of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains crucial until high vaccination coverage is attained to avoid runaway outbreaks. It may also be worthwhile to de-escalate measures in phases, before standing down most measures for an endemic state. If a variant that substantially evades immunity emerges, it will need to be managed akin to a new disease threat, with pandemic preparedness and response plans. Conclusion: An endemic state for COVID-19, characterised by sustainable disease control measures, is likely attainable through vaccination. Keywords: COVID-19, endemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions, transition, vaccination

scholarly journals S Gene Target Failure (SGTF) in Commercial Multiplex RT-PCR assay as indicator to detect SARS-CoV-2 VOC B.1.1.7 lineage in Tamil Nadu, India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vidhya N M ◽  
Kumaresan A ◽  
Kalaivani V ◽  
Rajesh Kumar A ◽  
Gurunathan Subramanian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Whole Genome Sequencing ◽  
Genome Sequencing ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Immune Escape ◽  
Whole Genome ◽  
Rt Pcr ◽  
Pcr Assay ◽  
Gene Target ◽  
S Gene ◽  
Significant Public Health

Emergence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Corona Virus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) Variants of Concern (VOC) possessing improved virulence, transmissibility and/or immune-escape capabilities has raised significant public health concerns. In order to identify VOCs, WHO recommends Whole-Genome Sequencing approach, which is costly and involves longer completion time. Hence, potential role of commercial multiplex RT-PCR kit to screen variants rapidly is being attempted in this study. A total of 1200 suspected COVID samples from different districts of Tamil Nadu State (India) were screened with Thermo TaqPath RT-PCR kit and Altona Realstar RT-PCR Assay kit. Among 1200 screened, S-gene target failure (SGTF) phenomenon were identified in 112 samples while testing with TaqPath RT-PCR Kit. 100% concordant results were observed between SGTF phenomenon and whole-genome sequencing (WGS) results in detecting SARS-CoV-2 VOC B.1.1.7. TaqPath RT-PCR assay testing can be utilized by laboratories to screen rapidly the VOC B.1.1.7 variants, thus enabling early detection of B.1.1.7 variant infection and transmission in population. This in turn will pave way to implement suitable preventive measures by appropriate authorities to control the transmission of the viral variant.

scholarly journals Modelling COVID 19 in the Basque Country from introduction to control measure response

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maíra Aguiar ◽  
Eduardo Millán Ortuondo ◽  
Joseba Bidaurrazaga Van-Dierdonck ◽  
Javier Mar ◽  
Nico Stollenwerk
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Task Force ◽  
Control Measure ◽  
Basque Country ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Reproduction Ratio

Abstract In March 2020, a multidisciplinary task force (so-called Basque Modelling Task Force, BMTF) was created to assist the Basque health managers and Government during the COVID-19 responses. BMTF is a modelling team, working on different approaches, including stochastic processes, statistical methods and artificial intelligence. Here we describe the efforts and challenges to develop a flexible modeling framework able to describe the dynamics observed for the tested positive cases, including the modelling development steps. The results obtained by a new stochastic SHARUCD model framework are presented. Our models differentiate mild and asymptomatic from severe infections prone to be hospitalized and were able to predict the course of the epidemic, providing important projections on the national health system’s necessities during the increased population demand on hospital admissions. Short and longer-term predictions were tested with good results adjusted to the available epidemiological data. We have shown that the partial lockdown measures were effective and enough to slow down disease transmission in the Basque Country. The growth rate $$ \lambda $$ λ was calculated from the model and from the data and the implications for the reproduction ratio r are shown. The analysis of the growth rates from the data led to improved model versions describing after the exponential phase also the new information obtained during the phase of response to the control measures. This framework is now being used to monitor disease transmission while the country lockdown was gradually lifted, with insights to specific programs for a general policy of “social distancing” and home quarantining.

scholarly journals Preliminary modeling estimates of the relative transmissibility and immune escape of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern in South Africa

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolò Gozzi ◽  
Matteo Chinazzi ◽  
Jessica T. Davis ◽  
Kunpeng Mu ◽  
Ana Pastore y Piontti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Parameter Space ◽  
Generation Time ◽  
Immune Escape ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Unknown Origin ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Initial Seeding ◽  
Epidemic Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

We develop a stochastic, multi-strain, compartmental epidemic model to estimate the relative transmissibility and immune escape of the Omicron variant of concern (VOC) in South Africa. The model integrates population, non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccines, and epidemiological data and it is calibrated in the period May 1st, 2021 - November 23rd, 2021. We explore a parameter space of relative transmissibility with respect to the Delta variant and immune escape for Omicron by assuming an initial seeding, from unknown origin, in the first week of October 2021. We identify a region of the parameter space where combinations of relative transmissibility and immune escape are compatible with the growth of the epidemic wave. We also find that changes in the generation time associated with Omicron infections strongly affect the results concerning its relative transmissibility. The presented results are informed by current knowledge of Omicron and subject to changes.

scholarly journals Can Copper Products and Surfaces Reduce the Spread of Infectious Microorganisms and Hospital-Acquired Infections?

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (13) ◽  
pp. 3444
Author(s):  
Joji Abraham ◽  
Kim Dowling ◽  
Singarayer Florentine
Keyword(s):  
Infection Control ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Copper Alloys ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Traditional Use ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Infection Control Measures

Pathogen transfer and infection in the built environment are globally significant events, leading to the spread of disease and an increase in subsequent morbidity and mortality rates. There are numerous strategies followed in healthcare facilities to minimize pathogen transfer, but complete infection control has not, as yet, been achieved. However, based on traditional use in many cultures, the introduction of copper products and surfaces to significantly and positively retard pathogen transmission invites further investigation. For example, many microbes are rendered unviable upon contact exposure to copper or copper alloys, either immediately or within a short time. In addition, many disease-causing bacteria such as E. coli O157:H7, hospital superbugs, and several viruses (including SARS-CoV-2) are also susceptible to exposure to copper surfaces. It is thus suggested that replacing common touch surfaces in healthcare facilities, food industries, and public places (including public transport) with copper or alloys of copper may substantially contribute to limiting transmission. Subsequent hospital admissions and mortality rates will consequently be lowered, with a concomitant saving of lives and considerable levels of resources. This consideration is very significant in times of the COVID-19 pandemic and the upcoming epidemics, as it is becoming clear that all forms of possible infection control measures should be practiced in order to protect community well-being and promote healthy outcomes.

scholarly journals Human Cystic Echinococcosis in Lebanon: A Retrospective Study and Molecular Epidemiology

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gaelle Joanny ◽  
Maria Grazia Cappai ◽  
Francesca Nonnis ◽  
Claudia Tamponi ◽  
Giorgia Dessì ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Echinococcus Granulosus ◽  
Cystic Echinococcosis ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Sensu Stricto ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Mediterranean Countries ◽  
High Gene ◽  
Human Infections ◽  
And Control ◽  
Human Cystic Echinococcosis

Abstract Purpose Human cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a zoonotic parasitic disease that constitutes a public health challenge and a socio-economic burden in endemic areas worldwide. No specific surveillance system of CE infections in humans exists in Lebanon. The incidence and trends over time have not been documented. The current study aimed to assess the demographic and epidemiologic features of human CE surgical cases over a 14-year period in the five main regions of Lebanon. Methods From 2005 to 2018, a total of 894 surgically confirmed cases of hydatidosis were recorded from five anatomy and pathology laboratories. Results The mean annual surgical incidence was 1.23/100,000 inhabitants. Over the span of these years, the incidence increased from 0.53 to 1.94 cases/100,000 inhabitants in 2005 and 2018, respectively. CE is present in Lebanon with an uneven distribution from one region to the other with higher prevalence in Bekaa (29.0%), a rural area where sheep raising is widespread. Human CE cases were more common in females (60.1%) than in males (39.9%) and a high burden of infection was reported for the age group of 30–39 years. Besides, 66.7% of the cases expressed only liver complications whereas, 20.5% showed predilection towards lungs. The 7.8% of cases presented cysts in other organs, and 1.3% showed multiple localizations. Additionally, predominant involvement of Echinococcus granulosus sensu stricto was recorded in human infections. Comparison of Echinococcus granulosus s.s. populations from different Mediterranean countries also revealed high gene flow among this region and sharing of alleles. Conclusion The current study is a step forward to fill the gap of knowledge for the hydatidosis in Lebanon where the lack of epidemiological data and control measures have resulted in higher incidence of human CE. Graphic Abstract

scholarly journals Rapid Spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in Southern Italy (December 2020–March 2021)

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 4766
Author(s):  
Daniela Loconsole ◽  
Francesca Centrone ◽  
Caterina Morcavallo ◽  
Silvia Campanella ◽  
Anna Sallustio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Characteristics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Whole Genome ◽  
Third Wave ◽  
Gene Target ◽  
The Third ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Over Time

Epidemiological and virological studies have revealed that SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) are emerging globally, including in Europe. The aim of this study was to evaluate the spread of B.1.1.7-lineage SARS-CoV-2 in southern Italy from December 2020–March 2021 through the detection of the S gene target failure (SGTF), which could be considered a robust proxy of VOC B.1.1.7. SGTF was assessed on 3075 samples from week 52/2020 to week 10/2021. A subset of positive samples identified in the Apulia region during the study period was subjected to whole-genome sequencing (WGS). A descriptive and statistical analysis of the demographic and clinical characteristics of cases according to SGTF status was performed. Overall, 20.2% of samples showed SGTF; 155 strains were confirmed as VOC 202012/01 by WGS. The proportion of SGTF-positive samples rapidly increased over time, reaching 69.2% in week 10/2021. SGTF-positive cases were more likely to be symptomatic and to result in hospitalization (p < 0.0001). Despite the implementation of large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as the closure of schools and local lockdowns, a rapid spread of VOC 202012/01 was observed in southern Italy. Strengthened NPIs and rapid vaccine deployment, first among priority groups and then among the general population, are crucial both to contain the spread of VOC 202012/01 and to flatten the curve of the third wave.

Virtual screening attributes male biased COVID-19 mortality to predicted antiviral activity of female sex hormones

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galal Yahya ◽  
Basem Mansour ◽  
Kristina Keuper ◽  
Moataz Shaldam ◽  
Ahmed El-Baz
Keyword(s):  
Virtual Screening ◽  
Sex Hormones ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Antiviral Effect ◽  
Sex Hormone ◽  
Female Sex ◽  
Female Sex Hormones ◽  
Disaggregated Data ◽  
Male Sex

Background: Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) is a newly emerged pandemic leading to a state of international alert with millions of infected individuals and thousands of deaths all over the world. Analysis of statistics and epidemiological data for the pandemic outcome pinpointed a puzzling influence of human sex on the heterogeneous outcome of COVID-19, where hospital admissions and mortality were higher among males than females. Two theories explained the observed male-biased COVID-19 mortality based on either dosage of immunoregulatory genes coded in X- chromosomes or on the abundance of the angiotensin-converting enzyme two (ACE2) receptors in males than females. Objective: In our study, we propose a third scenario through virtual screening of direct antiviral effects of sex hormones. Materials & Methods: Updated screening statistics from 47 countries displaying sex-disaggregated data on COVID-19 were employed and visualized in the form of heatmaps depicting sex difference effects on statistics of cases and deaths. Molecular docking and binding simulations of investigated sex steroids against COVID-19 specific proteins were investigated. Results: Analysis of COVID-19 sex-disaggregated data confirmed that male-biased mortality and computer-aided docking found unexpected female sex hormones biased binding against key targets implicated in the life cycle of COVID-19 compared to the male sex hormone testosterone. Other investigated steroids showed promising docking scores, while the male sex hormone exhibited the lowest affinity. Conclusion: Female sex hormones virtually exhibited direct COVID-19 effect. The proposed antiviral effect of sex hormones should be considered to explain the outcomes of mortality; moreover, the fluctuation of sex hormones influences sex and personal derived-differential response to COVID-19 infection.

scholarly journals Session 3: Joint Nutrition Society and Irish Nutrition and Dietetic Institute Symposium on ‘Nutrition and autoimmune disease’ Nutrition in Crohn's disease

2009 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 127-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria O'Sullivan
Keyword(s):  
Vitamin D ◽  
Crohn’S Disease ◽  
Crohn's Disease ◽  
Enteral Nutrition ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Overweight And Obesity ◽  
Micronutrient Deficiencies ◽  
Hospital Stays ◽  
Current Guidelines

The exact aetiology of Crohn's disease remains unknown. The consensus is that the disease results from a complex interaction between genes, immunity and environmental factors. Diet is attractive, in theory, as an environmental risk factor in the aetiology of the disease. The epidemiological data, often impeded by methodological issues, have failed to confirm a direct link between pre-diet illness and the development of Crohn's disease. Once diagnosed, however, nutrition has an important role in disease management. Among the nutritional issues are malnutrition, weight loss and suboptimal nutritional status; these outcomes may be present at any stage of the disease but are likely to be overt during acute illness and hospitalisation. Malnutrition has been identified in approximately 40% of hospital admissions with Crohn's disease and is associated with higher mortality, longer hospital stays and higher healthcare costs. Patients in remission may indeed be overweight and appear to be influenced by the general population trends toward overweight and obesity. Irrespective of BMI, patients are at risk of micronutrient deficiencies. Vitamin D deficiency, for example, is common in Crohn's disease and has important implications for bone health. Moreover, newer evidence suggests that vitamin D has potential anti-inflammatory effects. Dietary approaches, in the form of enteral nutrition, have previously been shown to reduce inflammation and treat the active disease. Current guidelines now recommend that corticosteroids are more effective than enteral nutrition for treating adults. Enteral nutrition has important growth and developmental benefits and continues to be a recommended therapy for children with Crohn's disease.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document