The recent evolution of the HIV rates in Sub-Saharan Africa: Do differences still persist?
Abstract Background This paper studies the evolution of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence and incidence rates in Sub-Saharan African countries, paying special attention to the possible presence of a unique pattern of behavior of these variables across the mentioned countries during the 1990-2016 period. Methods We employ time series methods designed to analyze the hypothesis of convergence. We apply these tests to prevalence and incidence rates of the Sub-Saharan African countries for the 1990-2016 period. Results We cannot reject the null hypothesis of convergence for male prevalence rates and total incidence rates. By contrast, we can observe divergence in female prevalence rates, Conclusion The evolution of the male prevalence rates and incidence rates is quite similar for the Sub-Saharan countries. But, we can still find different patterns of behavior for female prevalence rates. Therefore, the recent HIV-oriented policies have not been able to control its transmission yet. We can also appreciate that some socioeconomic variables play a crucial role to explain the different behaviors of female prevalence rates, especially the level of female education. So, focusing on this variable is crucial to control this pandemia.