scholarly journals Mathematical modeling and comparative analysis of the Ebola epidemic reveal effective control measures

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junlong Li ◽  
Caiping Song ◽  
Jingya Yang ◽  
Jingmin Zheng ◽  
Lina Zhou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
And Control

Abstract The Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a highly contagious disease which is caused by the Ebola virus . Various measures were used to prevent and control the spread of EVD. The aim of this study was to find out the most critical measures to prevent and control the spread of EVD. Both mathematical modeling and comparative analysis were used to explore the development process of EVD outbreak in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The results of comparative analysis showed quarantined individuals before infection (R 2 = 0.848, ε = 1.012), safe burial teams (R 2 = 0.772, ε = 0.385), and the Ebola treatment units (ETU) bed (R 2 = 0.690, ε = 0.432) could significantly influence the incidence of EVD which were consistent with the results of mathematical modeling. These findings indicted that a timely and effective quarantine played a significant role in preventing and controlling the spread of EVD, and the findings would help us prevent and control the epidemic outbreak of new infectious disease in the future.

scholarly journals Mathematical modeling and comparative analysis of the Ebola epidemic reveal effective control measures

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luosheng Wen(Former Corresponding Author) ◽  
Junlong Li ◽  
Caiping Song ◽  
Jingya Yang ◽  
Jingmin Zheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Control Parameters ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Effect Estimation ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background The Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a highly contagious disease which is caused by the Ebola virus. Various measures were used to prevent and control the spread of EVD in Guinea, Liberia Sierra and Leone. The aim of this study was to find out the most critical measures to prevent and control the spread of EVD and the effect of control in the three countries. Methods We used a novel deterministic compartmental model with the parameters that describes the spreading and control of Ebola, and then the data of confirmed case from the WHO was fitted to obtain the effect estimation of control measures. On the other hand, a comparative analysis also was used to explore the process. Results The results of our compartmental model showed that the control parameters ( a , c ) of pre-infection and post-infection are (0.1827, 0.1091), (0.5832, 0.3278) and (0.3696, 0.1281) in Guinea, Liberia Sierra and Leone, respectively. This means that the control measures in Liberia Sierra works best and that in Guinea works worst. The results of comparative analysis based on the same data showed that the quarantined individuals before infection ( R -squared R 2 = 0.848, standardized coefficients ε = 1.025), the safe burial teams ( R 2 = 0.772, ε = 0.365), and the Ebola treatment units (ETU) beds ( R 2 = 0.690, ε = 0.424) could significantly influence the incidence of EVD. Conclusion These findings indicted that a timely and effective quarantine plays a significant role in preventing and controlling the spread of EVD, and the findings would help us prevent and control the epidemic outbreak of new infectious disease in the future.

scholarly journals Challenges in Implementation of Infection Prevention and Control Measures During the Tenth Ebola Virus Disease in Northeastern of DRC, in 2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Paul Mansiangi Mankadi ◽  
Aimee Lulebo Mampasi ◽  
Guillaume Kiyombo Mbela ◽  
Jean-Claude Makenga Bof ◽  
Jean Nyandwe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Infection Prevention ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

scholarly journals Forecasting and control policy assessment for the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in Sierra Leone using small-world networked model simulations

BMJ Open ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. e008649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantinos I Siettos ◽  
Cleo Anastassopoulou ◽  
Lucia Russo ◽  
Christos Grigoras ◽  
Eleftherios Mylonakis
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Control Policy ◽  
Small World ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
Policy Assessment ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
And Control

scholarly journals Comparison between two types of control strategies for the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (07) ◽  
pp. 696-698
Author(s):  
Xiaoyan Zhang ◽  
Yuxuan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Analysis ◽  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Control Strategy ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Epidemic Control ◽  
And Control

Different countries have employed various strategies for controlling the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic because there is no consensus regarding effective control measures in the literature. Epidemic control strategies can be classified into two types based on their characteristics. The first type is the “severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like epidemic control strategy,” i.e., containment. The second type is the “influenza pandemic-like epidemic control strategy” (flu pandemic-like strategy), i.e., mitigation. This paper presents a comparative analysis on the prevention and control strategies for COVID-19 in different countries to provide a reference to control the further spread of the pandemic.

scholarly journals Epidemiological investigation and prevention control analysis of longitudinal distribution of COVID-19 in Henan province, China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianguang Yang ◽  
Xuelin Chen ◽  
Cuihong Ding ◽  
Zhibo Bai ◽  
Jingyi Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Henan Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Longitudinal Distribution ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Control Analysis ◽  
Female Ratio ◽  
And Control ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Objective: To analyze the vertical distribution of six cities in Henan Province,China from January 21, 2020 to June17, 2020: Xinyang City (including Gushi County), Nanyang City (including Dengzhou City), Zhumadian City (including XincaiCounty), Zhengzhou City (including Gongyi City), Puyang City and Anyang City (including Hua County) corona virus disease 2019(COVID-19) epidemiological characteristics and local prevention and control measures.Methods: Data were collected and analyzed through the COVID-19 information published on the official websites of health commissions of Henan Province and six cities.Results: As of June 17, 2020, the cumulative incidence rate of COVID-19 in Henan province was 1.33/100,000, the cumulative cure rate was 98.27%, the cumulative mortality rate was 1.73%, the age range of diagnosed cases was 5days-85years old, and the male to female ratio was 1.09:1.The confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Henan province were mainly imported cases from Hubei, accounting for 87.74%, of which the highest number was 70.50% in Zhumadian. The contact cases and local cases increased in a fluctuating manner over time.Significance: In this paper, epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in Henan province from the outbreak to the effective control within 60 days were analyzed, and effective and distinctive prevention and control measures in various cities were summarized, so as to provide a favorable reference for the further formulation and implementation of epidemic prevention and control and a valuable theoretical basis for effectively avoiding the second outbreak.

scholarly journals A Mathematical Model with Quarantine States for the Dynamics of Ebola Virus Disease in Human Populations

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gideon A. Ngwa ◽  
Miranda I. Teboh-Ewungkem
Keyword(s):  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Emergency Services ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Threshold Parameter

A deterministic ordinary differential equation model for the dynamics and spread of Ebola Virus Disease is derived and studied. The model contains quarantine and nonquarantine states and can be used to evaluate transmission both in treatment centres and in the community. Possible sources of exposure to infection, including cadavers of Ebola Virus victims, are included in the model derivation and analysis. Our model’s results show that there exists a threshold parameter,R0, with the property that when its value is above unity, an endemic equilibrium exists whose value and size are determined by the size of this threshold parameter, and when its value is less than unity, the infection does not spread into the community. The equilibrium state, when it exists, is locally and asymptotically stable with oscillatory returns to the equilibrium point. The basic reproduction number,R0, is shown to be strongly dependent on the initial response of the emergency services to suspected cases of Ebola infection. When intervention measures such as quarantining are instituted fully at the beginning, the value of the reproduction number reduces and any further infections can only occur at the treatment centres. Effective control measures, to reduceR0to values below unity, are discussed.

scholarly journals Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic

eLife ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Paul Chretien ◽  
Steven Riley ◽  
Dylan B George
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
The West ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Public Sharing

As of November 2015, the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic that began in West Africa in late 2013 is waning. The human toll includes more than 28,000 EVD cases and 11,000 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the most heavily-affected countries. We reviewed 66 mathematical modeling studies of the EVD epidemic published in the peer-reviewed literature to assess the key uncertainties models addressed, data used for modeling, public sharing of data and results, and model performance. Based on the review, we suggest steps to improve the use of modeling in future public health emergencies.

scholarly journals Measuring the impact of Ebola control measures in Sierra Leone

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (46) ◽  
pp. 14366-14371 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam J. Kucharski ◽  
Anton Camacho ◽  
Stefan Flasche ◽  
Rebecca E. Glover ◽  
W. John Edmunds ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Additional Treatment ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Direct Result ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
International Response ◽  
The Impact

Between September 2014 and February 2015, the number of Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases reported in Sierra Leone declined in many districts. During this period, a major international response was put in place, with thousands of treatment beds introduced alongside other infection control measures. However, assessing the impact of the response is challenging, as several factors could have influenced the decline in infections, including behavior changes and other community interventions. We developed a mathematical model of EVD transmission, and measured how transmission changed over time in the 12 districts of Sierra Leone with sustained transmission between June 2014 and February 2015. We used the model to estimate how many cases were averted as a result of the introduction of additional treatment beds in each area. Examining epidemic dynamics at the district level, we estimated that 56,600 (95% credible interval: 48,300–84,500) Ebola cases (both reported and unreported) were averted in Sierra Leone up to February 2, 2015 as a direct result of additional treatment beds being introduced. We also found that if beds had been introduced 1 month earlier, a further 12,500 cases could have been averted. Our results suggest the unprecedented local and international response led to a substantial decline in EVD transmission during 2014–2015. In particular, the introduction of beds had a direct impact on reducing EVD cases in Sierra Leone, although the effect varied considerably between districts.

Nosocomial transmission of Ebola virus disease on pediatric and maternity wards: Bombali and Tonkolili, Sierra Leone, 2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela C. Dunn ◽  
Tiffany A. Walker ◽  
John Redd ◽  
David Sugerman ◽  
Jevon McFadden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sierra Leone ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
Nosocomial Transmission
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