scholarly journals Mathematical modeling of the West Africa Ebola epidemic

eLife ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Paul Chretien ◽  
Steven Riley ◽  
Dylan B George

As of November 2015, the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic that began in West Africa in late 2013 is waning. The human toll includes more than 28,000 EVD cases and 11,000 deaths in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, the most heavily-affected countries. We reviewed 66 mathematical modeling studies of the EVD epidemic published in the peer-reviewed literature to assess the key uncertainties models addressed, data used for modeling, public sharing of data and results, and model performance. Based on the review, we suggest steps to improve the use of modeling in future public health emergencies.

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. B. DeSilva ◽  
T. Styles ◽  
C. Basler ◽  
F. L. Moses ◽  
F. Husain ◽  
...  

AbstractIn early October 2014, 7 months after the 2014–2015 Ebola epidemic in West Africa began, a cluster of reported deaths in Koinadugu, a remote district of Sierra Leone, was the first evidence of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in the district. Prior to this event, geographic isolation was thought to have prevented the introduction of Ebola to this area. We describe our initial investigation of this cluster of deaths and subsequent public health actions after Ebola was confirmed, and present challenges to our investigation and methods of overcoming them. We present a transmission tree and results of whole genome sequencing of selected isolates to identify the source of infection in Koinadugu and demonstrate transmission between its villages. Koinadugu's experience highlights the danger of assuming that remote location and geographic isolation can prevent the spread of Ebola, but also demonstrates how deployment of rapid field response teams can help limit spread once Ebola is detected.


2021 ◽  
pp. 002076402110022
Author(s):  
Zhifeng Wang ◽  
Dongmei Wang

Background: Since the 21st century, humans have experienced five public health emergencies: the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), type A H1N1 influenza (H1N1), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), Ebola virus disease (EVD), and the new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19). They caused a large number of casualties and a wider psychological crisis, which might cause severe consequences such as post-traumatic stress disorder and suicide. Aims: To reveal the law of formation of public psychological crisis in public health emergencies, and draw lessons from it. To provide ideas for effectively deal with these psychological crisis problems and fundamentally curbing the occurrence of public health emergencies. Method: Through the method of literature research, ‘public health incidents’, ‘psychological crisis’, ‘mental health’, ‘psychological intervention’, ‘SARS’, ‘H1N1’, ‘MERS’, ‘EVD’, and ‘COVID-19’ were used to search literatures in the databases such as PubMed, Springer, and Sciencedirect, and the literatures were summarized, sorted, and studied. Results: (1) The public health emergencies caused a universal psychological crisis. The main manifestations were depression, compulsion, despair, etc. The people involved mainly include patients, suspected isolated patients, medical staff, and the general public in the epidemic situation. (2) People’s psychological state often experienced stress stage, shock stage, acceptance, and reorganization. Only some susceptible individuals couldn’t complete effective psychological reconstruction, resulting in serious psychological disorders. Individual susceptibility is related to genetic factors, adversity, and traumatic stimuli experienced in early life. Conclusion: To reduce these psychological crisis problems, we should establish and improve the psychological crisis intervention or rescue system of public health emergencies, it was still necessary to live in harmony with nature, get rid of the inappropriate habit of preying on wild animals, in order to prevent the cross-species transmission of the virus between wild animals and humans, and to fundamentally avoid the occurrence of major infectious diseases.


Author(s):  
Nadege Goumkwa Mafopa ◽  
Gianluca Russo ◽  
Raoul Emeric Guetiya Wadoum ◽  
Emmanuel Iwerima ◽  
Vincent Batwala ◽  
...  

A serosurvey of anti-Ebola Zaire virus nucleoprotein IgG prevalence was carried out among Ebola virus disease survivors and their Community Contacts in Bombali District, Sierra Leone. Our data suggest that the specie of Ebola virus (Zaire) responsible of the 2013-2016 epidemic in West Africa may cause mild or asymptomatic infection in a proportion of cases, possibly due to an efficient immune response.


2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis O. Laryea ◽  
Yaw Amoako ◽  
Dan V. Armooh ◽  
Emmanuel P. Abbeyquaye ◽  
Bernice N. Amartey

Surveillance for communicable diseases of public health importance is critical in preventing and controlling outbreaks. In Ghana, this responsibility lies with the Disease Surveillance Department of the Ghana Health Service (GHS). However, the structure of Ghana's health system means surveillance activities by the department are concentrated in GHS facilities. Active surveillance in non-GHS facilities usually occur during outbreaks. In light of the recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa, there is the need to integrate the surveillance activities to include all health facilities to ensure the prompt identification of cases.


2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 268-298
Author(s):  
Gloria C. Nwafor ◽  
Anthony O. Nwafor

The recent outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease (evd) in the West African sub-region sprung challenges on the healthcare providers in the observance of their ethical rules in dealing with their patients and the State in fulfilling its obligations to ensure that the rights of patients are respected in times of public health emergency. The ethical rules of medical practice demand that the healthcare providers prefer the interests of their patients to the preservation of self. The State is by law under obligation to protect and respect the rights of the patients in all situations. The paper argues that the responses by the healthcare providers and the States in the West African sub region in the wake of the public health emergency fell short of the demands of the ethical rules of the medical profession and the obligation to ensure that the rights of the patients are respected.


2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (11) ◽  
pp. 1307-1314 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.M. Rojek ◽  
A. Salam ◽  
R.J. Ragotte ◽  
E. Liddiard ◽  
A. Elhussain ◽  
...  

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 151-160 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melanie O’Brien ◽  
Maria Ximena Tolosa

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide an analysis of the disproportionate impact of the 2014 West Africa Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic on women, presenting an assessment of how this impact in particular is linked with violence against women and women’s right to health, and a critique of improvements that could avoid discrimination against women in healthcare crises. Design/methodology/approach This paper covers conceptual understandings of, and utilises a human rights law and public health lens to analyse how the EVD epidemic in West Africa both directly and indirectly caused greater harm to women and girls. All these factors which represent intersectional violations of the human rights of women are examined with a focus on violence against women and the right to health. Findings There are multiple reasons why the EVD outbreak harmed women disproportionately, and this intersectionality of discrimination must be considered in any response to a public health crisis. Addressing the vulnerability of women and girls to all forms of violence involves the coordinated efforts of public health, legal and political actors to empower women. Originality/value Specific issues of the 2014 West Africa EVD outbreak have been examined in medical journals, but there have been no academic studies that present a cross-disciplinary analysis of the gender concerns. This paper combines a public health perspective with a human rights law viewpoint in order to consider the impact of the EVD outbreak on women and provide suggestions as to how discrimination and disadvantage of women in such health crises can be avoided.


2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilie Alirol ◽  
Annette C. Kuesel ◽  
Maria Magdalena Guraiib ◽  
Vânia de la Fuente-Núñez ◽  
Abha Saxena ◽  
...  

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1298-1307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Folorunso Oludayo Fasina ◽  
Olubukola T. Adenubi ◽  
Samuel T. Ogundare ◽  
Aminu Shittu ◽  
Dauda G. Bwala ◽  
...  

Introduction: Since the first case of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in Guinea in 2013, major outbreaks have been reported in West Africa. Methodology: Cases and fatalities of EVD caused by Zaire Ebola virus (ZEBOV) were evaluated, and the risks of dying in the general population and in healthcare workers were assessed. Results: The case fatality rate estimated for EVD was 76.4% in 20 studies. Cumulative proportion of fatal cases in West Africa was 42.9%, 30.1%, and 64.2% in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, respectively. The proportion of total deaths in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea was 42.5%, 35.8%, and 21.6%, respectively. Healthcare workers were at higher risk of dying compared with the general public, and the same applied to intense transmission countries and to countries with sufficient bed capacities. The declaration of a health emergency “out-of-control” situation by the World Health Organization on 8 August 2014 reduced the risk of death among patients. Factors including deplorable healthcare delivery infrastructure in war-ravaged regions of Africa, the impotence of governments to enforce public health regulations, and the loss of confidence in public healthcare delivery programs were key among others factors that enhanced the spread and magnitude of outbreaks. Conclusions: The findings underscore the need for an overall re-appraisal of the healthcare systems in African countries and the ability to cope with widespread epidemic challenges. Outbreaks like that of Ebola diseases should be handled not just as a medical emergency but also a socio-economic problem with significant negative economic impacts.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junlong Li ◽  
Caiping Song ◽  
Jingya Yang ◽  
Jingmin Zheng ◽  
Lina Zhou ◽  
...  

Abstract The Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a highly contagious disease which is caused by the Ebola virus . Various measures were used to prevent and control the spread of EVD. The aim of this study was to find out the most critical measures to prevent and control the spread of EVD. Both mathematical modeling and comparative analysis were used to explore the development process of EVD outbreak in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. The results of comparative analysis showed quarantined individuals before infection (R 2 = 0.848, ε = 1.012), safe burial teams (R 2 = 0.772, ε = 0.385), and the Ebola treatment units (ETU) bed (R 2 = 0.690, ε = 0.432) could significantly influence the incidence of EVD which were consistent with the results of mathematical modeling. These findings indicted that a timely and effective quarantine played a significant role in preventing and controlling the spread of EVD, and the findings would help us prevent and control the epidemic outbreak of new infectious disease in the future.


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