The Physician Assistant/associate Medical Workforce: 2020-2035
Abstract Background: Physician assistant/associates (PAs) are health care professionals whose roles expand universal access to a broad range of people across many nations. In the US, there is a growing shortage of physicians. PAs and advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs) were developed to help span medical providers' supply and demand gap. A forecasting project was undertaken to predict the likely census of PAs in the medical workforce spanning 2020 to 2035. Methods: Microsimulation modeling of the American PA workforce was performed using standard stock and flow format. The number of clinically active PAs employed in 2020 formed the baseline. Graduation rates and PA program expansion were factored as critical parameters to predict annual growth; attrition estimates balanced the equation. Two models, one based on data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and another based on data from the National Commission on Certification of Physician Assistants (NCCPA), were analyzed to estimate future annual PA numbers. Results: As of 2020, the BLS estimated 125,280 PAs were employed in the medical workforce; the NCCPA estimate was 148,560 PA in active practice. The mean age was 40, and 76% were female. The Accreditation Review Commission accredited 277 PA education programs for the Physician Assistant (ARC-PA), and 99% had a graduating class. The mean annual graduation cohort was 45. The BLS model predicted approximately 204,243 clinically active PAs by 2035; the NCCPA-based model predicted 211,537 PAs in clinical practice. Conclusions: A physician assistant/associate predictive model based on two data sources projects the supply of PAs by 2035 between 204,000 and 212,000: a growth rate of ± 35% (3.5% model differences). If the most likely scenario is realized, the 15-year growth of the PA will help improve the gap in the supply and demand of American medical service.