scholarly journals Investigation of the Effects of Silage Type, Silage Consumption, Birth Type and Birth Weight on Live Weight in Kıvırcık Lambs With MARS and Bagging MARS Algorithms.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ömer ŞENGÜL ◽  
Şenol Çelik ◽  
İbrahim AK
Keyword(s):  
Birth Weight ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Live Weight ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Corn Silage ◽  
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Fit Statistics ◽  
Birth Type

Abstract This study was carried out to determine the effect of silage type, silage consumption, birth type (single or twin) and birth weight on live weight at the end of fattening in Kıvırcık lambs. In the experiment, 40 male Kıvırcık lambs aged 2.5-3 months were used and the animals were fattened for 56 days. During the fattening period, the lambs fed with 5 different types of silage (100% sunflower silage, 75% sunflower + 25% corn silage, 50% sunflower + 50% corn silage, 25% sunflower + 75% corn silage, 100% corn silage) pure and mixed in different proportions and concentrate feed. Data on fattening results were analyzed with MARS and Bagging MARS algorithms. The main objective of this research is to predict live weight of lambs using Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and Bagging MARS algorithms as a nonparametric regression technique. Live weight value was modeled based on factors such as birth type, birth weight, silage type and silage consumption. Correlation coefficient (r), determination coefficient (R2), Adjust R2, Root-mean-square error (RMSE), standard deviation ratio (SD ratio), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), and Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) values of MARS algorithm predicting live weight were as follows: 0.9986, 0.997, 0.977, 0.142, 0.052, 0.2389, 0.086 and -88 respectively. Like statistics for Bagging MARS algorithm were 0.754, 0.556, 0.453, 1.8, 0.666, 3.96, 1.47 and 115 respectively. It was observed that MARS and Bagging MARS algorithms have revealed correct results according to goodness of fit statistics. However, it has been revealed that MARS algorithm gives better results in live weight modeling.

Factors governing the shape of the growth curve of body weight and the age at slaughter of Suffolk × Welsh lambs

1966 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-444 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Broadbent ◽  
J. H. Watson
Keyword(s):  
Body Weight ◽  
Birth Weight ◽  
Growth Curve ◽  
Compensatory Growth ◽  
Marked Effect ◽  
Growth Curves ◽  
Live Weight ◽  
Linear Component ◽  
Slaughter Weight ◽  
Birth Type

Curves of growth in live-weight, from birth to 16 weeks of age, of 362 Suffolk × Welsh lambs were analysed for the effect of sex, birth type, sire and test centre environment and related to variation in age at slaughter.The relative pre-natal disadvantages of twin lambs resulted in their curves of growth differing from those of single-born animals, particularly in males. Test centre environment exerted a marked effect in such cases. At one centre, male twins showed marked compensatory growth.Differences in growth existed between the 14 sire progeny groups. As the linear component of the growth curves decreased, the quadratic values became increasingly negative. Deceleration of growth was most marked in slowest growing progeny groups and this was accentuated by a poor test centre environment.These factors combined to influence age at slaughter, which was also related to birth weight of the lamb. Lambs at the best test centre reached slaughter weight 10 and 16 days earlier than lambs at the two remaining centres. Sires produced differences in age at slaughter of 10 to 14 days, within centres.

Relationships between pre-weaning growth, post-weaning growth and mature body size in Chios sheep

1990 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. P. Mavrogenis ◽  
A. Constantinou
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Body Size ◽  
Birth Weight ◽  
Growth Traits ◽  
Genetic Correlations ◽  
Live Weight ◽  
Pedigree Information ◽  
Mature Weight ◽  
Chios Sheep ◽  
Birth Type

ABSTRACTThe study examined early measures of growth and their relationships with mature body size. Data on 792 purebred females of the Chios breed, born and reared on two experimental farms between 1978 and 1986, were analysed. Pedigree information and records on live weight at birth, at weaning, 105 days of age and at first and subsequent matings was recorded. There were flock-year differences for all traits studied (P < 0·01) and birth type was important for all traits except post-weaning growth rate. Dam lactation number had no significant effect on birth weight and pre-weaning growth rate, but it significantly affected all subsequent weights and post-weaning growth rate. Estimated heritabilities increased with age and ranged from 0·13 (s.e. 0·14) (birth weight) to 0·30 (s.e. 0·15) (mature weight). Genetic correlations were generally positive between weights and growth traits. Phenotypic correlations were positive and followed the pattern of the genetic correlations. The results suggest that selection for 105-day weight will result in increased mature weight.

scholarly journals Gompertz and Logistic Models to the Productive Traits of Sunn Hemp

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cláudia Marques de Bem ◽  
Alberto Cargnelutti Filho ◽  
Gabriela Görgen Chaves ◽  
Jéssica Andiara Kleinpaul ◽  
Rafael Vieira Pezzini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Logistic Models ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Fresh Matter ◽  
Sunn Hemp ◽  
Productive Traits

Studies on growth models for productive character of sunn hemp are important to know the behavior of the culture. Therefore, the objective of this research was to adjust non-linear models, Gompertz and Logistic, in the description of productive traits of sunn hemp in two sowing periods. Two uniformity trials were performed. The evaluations began on October the 29th 2014 and December the 16th 2014, totaling 94 and 76 evaluation days for periods 1 and 2, respectively. After the emergence of the seeds of sunn hemp, for first period from 7 days after sowing, and from 2 to 13 days after sowing, on each day, they were collected randomly four plants. The traits: fresh matter leaf, stem, root, shoot, and total, and dry matter leaf, stem, root, shoot, and total. For both models the confidence interval was calculated of parameters a, b and c. The adjustment quality of the Gompertz and Logistic models was verified by the determination coefficient, the Akaike information criteria, residual standard deviation, mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percentage error and mean prediction error. The Gompertz model when compared between the sowing periods through the confidence interval of the parameters, for the productive traits, differs. The same result was found for the Logistic model. The growth models of Gompertz and Logistic presented good adjustment quality.

scholarly journals Farklı Yaşlarda Sütten Kesimin Prolifik ve Terminal Irk Melez Kuzuların Büyüme Özellikleri ve Yaşama Güçleri Üzerine Etkisi

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (11) ◽  
pp. 2255-2260
Author(s):  
Müzeyyen Kutluca Korkmaz ◽  
Ebru Emsen
Keyword(s):  
Weight Gain ◽  
Birth Weight ◽  
Growth Performance ◽  
Live Weight ◽  
Weaning Weight ◽  
Growth And Survival ◽  
Sex Effect ◽  
Different Ages ◽  
Weaning Age ◽  
Birth Type

In this study, we compared the growth and survival characteristics of Romanov × Morkaraman (F1 Rom), Romanov × F1 Romanov (G1 Rom) and Charollais × F1 Romanov (Charom) crossbreed lambs weaning weight at different ages. After birth, from three genotypes lambs were weaned at two different ages of 50 and 75 days and growth performance after weaning was examined at 120 days of age. The effect of three different genotypes and birth type on birth weight was very important, and sex effect was insignificant. In weaning weight, only the effect of birth type was found to be significant. Lamb birth and weaning weights were in Charom, F1 Rom, G1 Rom lambs, 3.38-15.28; 3.98-15.04; 3.21-15.55 kg, respectively. The type of birth showed variation in the birth weight of the lamb and the decrease in lamb birth weights (Single: 4.19 kg: Twin: 3.42 kg; Triplet: 3.15 kg and Quadrature: 2.88 kg) was observed as the number of offspring increased. The effect of the birth type on weaning weights was similar in single and triplet. Single-born lambs have higher weaning weights than those of twins and quadruplets. Average daily live weight gain (ADG) from weaning in single lambs, 247.37 g were found higher than twin (190.67 g), triplets (201.44 g) and quadruplets (178.57 g). The effect of weaning age was insignificant on weaning weights. The first month weight after weaning, effect of the genotype of the lamb, the birth type and the sex were insignificant; but effect of weaning age was significant weaning weights and first month after weaning weights the ADG. The late weaned lambs had higher next first month live weight (18.62-17.89 kg) and ADG (179.45-81.32 g). The live weights of the lambs on the 120 days were similar and none of the factors investigated were found to be effective.

scholarly journals Impact of birth and rearing type, as well as inaccuracy of recording, on pre-weaning lamb phenotypic and genetic merit for live weight1

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. McHugh ◽  
T. Pabiou ◽  
K. McDermott ◽  
E. Wall ◽  
D. P. Berry
Keyword(s):  
Birth Weight ◽  
Average Daily Gain ◽  
Live Weight ◽  
Breeding Value ◽  
Parity Number ◽  
Recorded Data ◽  
Genetic Evaluations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Selection Of ◽  
Birth Type

Abstract The objective of the present study was to quantify the impact of the systematic environmental effects of both birth and rearing type on pre-weaning lamb live weight, and to evaluate the repercussions of inaccurate recording of birth and rearing type on subsequent genetic evaluations. A total of 32,548 birth weight records, 35,770 forty-day weight records and 32,548 records for average daily gain (ADG) between birth and 40-day weight from the Irish national sheep database were used. For each lamb, a new variable, birth-rearing type, reflecting both the birth and rearing type of a lamb was generated by concatenating both parameters. The association between birth-rearing type and birth weight, 40-day weight, and ADG was estimated using linear mixed models. The repercussions of inaccurate recording of birth type were determined by quantifying the impact on sire estimated breeding value (EBV; with an accuracy of ≥ 35%), where one of the lambs born in a selection of twin litter births was assumed to have died at birth but the farmer recorded the birth and rearing type as a singleton. The heaviest mean birth weight was associated with lambs born and subsequently reared as singles (5.47 kg); the lightest mean birth weight was associated with lambs born and reared as triplets (4.10 kg). The association between birth-rearing type and 40-day weight differed by dam parity (P &lt; 0.001). Lambs reared by first parity dams as singles, irrespective of birth type were, on average, heavier at 40-day weighing than lambs reared as multiples, but as parity number increased, single-born lambs reared as twins outperformed triplet-born lambs reared as singles. Irrespective of the trait evaluated, the correlation between sire EBV estimated from the accurately recorded data and sire EBV estimated from the data with recording errors was strong ranging from 0.93 (birth weight) to 0.97 (ADG). The EBV for sires with progeny data manipulated were 0.14 kg, 0.34 kg and 5.56 g/d less for birth weight, 40-day weight and ADG, respectively, compared to their equivalent EBV calculated using accurately recorded data. Results from this study highlight the importance of precise recording of birth-rearing type by producers for the generation of accurate genetic evaluations.

scholarly journals An α-Monotone Generalized Log-Moyal Distribution with Applications to Environmental Data

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1400
Author(s):  
Talha Arslan
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Rate Function ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Fit Statistics ◽  
Bathtub Shape ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
Environmental Events

Modeling environmental data plays a crucial role in explaining environmental phenomena. In some cases, well-known distributions, e.g., Weibull, inverse Weibull, and Gumbel distributions, cannot model environmental events adequately. Therefore, many authors tried to find new statistical distributions to represent environmental phenomena more accurately. In this paper, an α-monotone generalized log-Moyal (α-GlogM) distribution is introduced and some statistical properties such as cumulative distribution function, hazard rate function (hrf), scale-mixture representation, and moments are derived. The hrf of the α-GlogM distribution can form a variety of shapes including the bathtub shape. The α-GlogM distribution converges to generalized half-normal (GHN) and inverse GHN distributions. It reduces to slash GHN and α-monotone inverse GHN distributions for certain parameter settings. Environmental data sets are used to show implementations of the α-GlogM distribution and also to compare its modeling performance with its rivals. The comparisons are carried out using well-known information criteria and goodness-of-fit statistics. The comparison results show that the α-GlogM distribution is preferable over its rivals in terms of the modeling capability.

scholarly journals Application of time series models for heating degree day forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 2137-2146
Author(s):  
Merve Kuru ◽  
Gulben Calis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Sarima Models

AbstractThis study aims at constructing short-term forecast models by analyzing the patterns of the heating degree day (HDD). In this context, two different time series analyses, namely the decomposition and Box–Jenkins methods, were conducted. The monthly HDD data in France between 1974 and 2017 were used for analyses. The multiplicative model and 79 SARIMA models were constructed by the decomposition and Box–Jenkins method, respectively. The performance of the SARIMA models was assessed by the adjusted R2 value, residual sum of squares, the Akaike Information Criteria, the Schwarz Information Criteria, and the analysis of the residuals. Moreover, the mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute deviation, and mean squared deviation values were calculated to evaluate the performance of both methods. The results show that the decomposition method yields more acceptable forecasts than the Box–Jenkins method for supporting short-term forecasting of the HDD.

scholarly journals Using Benford’s law to assess the quality of COVID-19 register data in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucas Silva ◽  
Dalson Figueiredo Filho
Keyword(s):  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Mean Absolute Deviation ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Distortion Factor ◽  
Benford Law ◽  
Official Data

Abstract We employ Newcomb–Benford law (NBL) to evaluate the reliability of COVID-19 figures in Brazil. Using official data from February 25 to September 15, we apply a first digit test for a national aggregate dataset of total cases and cumulative deaths. We find strong evidence that Brazilian reports do not conform to the NBL theoretical expectations. These results are robust to different goodness of fit (chi-square, mean absolute deviation and distortion factor) and data sources (John Hopkins University and Our World in Data). Despite the growing appreciation for evidence-based-policymaking, which requires valid and reliable data, we show that the Brazilian epidemiological surveillance system fails to provide trustful data under the NBL assumption on the COVID-19 epidemic.

scholarly journals Energy Supplementation during the Last Third of Gestation Improves Mother–Young Bonding in Goats

Animals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 287
Author(s):  
Juan M. Vázquez-García ◽  
Gregorio Álvarez-Fuentes ◽  
Héctor O. Orozco-Gregorio ◽  
Juan C. García-López ◽  
Milagros González-Hernández ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Rate ◽  
Birth Weight ◽  
Respiratory Rate ◽  
Rectal Temperature ◽  
First Feeding ◽  
Labor Duration ◽  
Daily Energy ◽  
Energy Supplementation ◽  
Birth Body Weight ◽  
Birth Type

We tested whether maternal energy supplementation during the last third of gestation improves birth weight, neonatal wellbeing, and mother–young bonding. Thirty-six pregnant French Alpine goats were randomly allocated among three nutritional treatments for the last third of pregnancy: (i) Control, fed alfalfa (T-0; n = 12); (ii) alfalfa + 150 g/head daily energy concentrate (T-150; n = 12); (iii) alfalfa + 300 g/head daily energy concentrate (T-300; n = 12). At birth, we collected progeny data on birth weight, birth type, sex, rectal temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, time to standing, time to udder connection, and time to first feeding. For the dams, we collected data on the duration of labor, time to clean the progeny, and time to allow first suckling. At birth, body weight, rectal temperature, heart rate, and the respiratory rate did not differ among treatments (p > 0.05). In the dams, labor duration was not affected by the treatments (p > 0.05). The T-150 dams were faster to clean the newborn and allow first suckling (p < 0.05). The T-150 progeny were faster to stand and the T-300 progeny were faster to connect to the udder (p < 0.05). We conclude that energy supplementation of the dam during the last third of gestation does not affect the birth weight of the progeny, but enhances the mother–young bonding.

Empirical comparison of skewed t-copula models for insurance and financial data

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 351-361
Author(s):  
Liwei Huang ◽  
Arkady Shemyakin
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Estimation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Special Importance ◽  
Copula Model ◽  
Technical Problems ◽  
T Copula

Skewed t-copulas recently became popular as a modeling tool of non-linear dependence in statistics. In this paper we consider three different versions of skewed t-copulas introduced by Demarta and McNeill; Smith, Gan and Kohn; and Azzalini and Capitanio. Each of these versions represents a generalization of the symmetric t-copula model, allowing for a different treatment of lower and upper tails. Each of them has certain advantages in mathematical construction, inferential tools and interpretability. Our objective is to apply models based on different types of skewed t-copulas to the same financial and insurance applications. We consider comovements of stock index returns and times-to-failure of related vehicle parts under the warranty period. In both cases the treatment of both lower and upper tails of the joint distributions is of a special importance. Skewed t-copula model performance is compared to the benchmark cases of Gaussian and symmetric Student t-copulas. Instruments of comparison include information criteria, goodness-of-fit and tail dependence. A special attention is paid to methods of estimation of copula parameters. Some technical problems with the implementation of maximum likelihood method and the method of moments suggest the use of Bayesian estimation. We discuss the accuracy and computational efficiency of Bayesian estimation versus MLE. Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with block updates was suggested to deal with the problem of intractability of conditionals.

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