Impact of Urban Expansion On Carbon Storage Under Multi-Scenario Simulations In Wuhan, China

Abstract Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems, which is the basis of the global carbon cycle, reflects the changes in the environment due to anthropogenic impacts. Rapid and effective assessment of the impact of urban expansion on carbon reserves is vital for the sustainable development of urban ecosystems. Previous studies lack research regarding different scenarios during future city and comprehensive analysis on the driving factors from the socioeconomic point of view. Therefore, this study examined Wuhan, China and explored the latent effects of urban expansion on terrestrial carbon storage by combining the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model. Based on different socioeconomic strategies, we developed three future scenarios, including Baseline Scenario (BS), Cropland Protection Scenario (CP), and Ecological protection Scenario (EP), to predict the urban built-up land use change from 2015 to 2035 in Wuhan and discussed the carbon storage impacts of urban expansion. The result shows that: (1) Wuhan's urban built-up land area expanded 2.67 times between 1980 and 2015, which is approximately 685.17 km2 and is expected to continuously expand to 1,349–1,945.01 km2 by 2035. (2) Urban expansion in Wuhan has caused carbon storage loss by 5.12×106 t during 1980–2015 and will lead to carbon storage loss by 6.15×106 t, 4.7×106 t, and 4.05×106 t under BS, CP, and EP scenarios from 2015 to 2035, accounting for 85.42%, 81.74%, and 78.79% of the total carbon loss, respectively. (3) The occupation of cropland by urban expansion is closely related to the road system expansion, which is the main driver of carbon storage reduction from 2015 to 2035. (4) We expect that by 2035, the districts facing carbon loss caused by the growth of urban built-up land will expand outward around secondary roads, and the scale of outward expansion under various scenarios will be ranked as: BS >CP > EP. In combination, the InVEST and the PLUS model can assess the impact of urban expansion on carbon storage more efficiently and is conducive to carrying out urban planning and promoting a dynamic balance between urban economic development and human well-being.

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Carbon Dynamics in the Northeastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau from 1990 to 2030 Using Landsat Land Use/Cover Change Data

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs12030528 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (3) ◽

pp. 528 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jingye Li ◽

Jian Gong ◽

Jean-Michel Guldmann ◽

Shicheng Li ◽

Jie Zhu

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Tibetan Plateau ◽

Carbon Storage ◽

Sharp Decrease ◽

Total Carbon ◽

Qinghai Lake ◽

Lake Basin ◽

Ecosystem Carbon ◽

Trade Offs ◽

The Impact

Land use/cover change (LUCC) has an important impact on the terrestrial carbon cycle. The spatial distribution of regional carbon reserves can provide the scientific basis for the management of ecosystem carbon storage and the formulation of ecological and environmental policies. This paper proposes a method combining the CA-based FLUS model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model to assess the temporal and spatial changes in ecosystem carbon storage due to land-use changes over 1990–2015 in the Qinghai Lake Basin (QLB). Furthermore, future ecosystem carbon storage is simulated and evaluated over 2020–2030 under three scenarios of natural growth (NG), cropland protection (CP), and ecological protection (EP). The long-term spatial variations in carbon storage in the QLB are discussed. The results show that: (1) Carbon storage in the QLB decreased at first (1990–2000) and increased later (2000–2010), with total carbon storage increasing by 1.60 Tg C (Teragram: a unit of mass equal to 1012 g). From 2010 to 2015, carbon storage displayed a downward trend, with a sharp decrease in wetlands and croplands as the main cause; (2) Under the NG scenario, carbon reserves decrease by 0.69 Tg C over 2020–2030. These reserves increase significantly by 6.77 Tg C and 7.54 Tg C under the CP and EP scenarios, respectively, thus promoting the benign development of the regional ecological environment. This study improves our understanding on the impact of land-use change on carbon storage for the QLB in the northeastern Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP).

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Local Perspectives on Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs in a Forest Frontier Landscape in Myanmar

Land ◽

10.3390/land8030045 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (3) ◽

pp. 45 ◽

Cited By ~ 10

Author(s):

Melanie Feurer ◽

Andreas Heinimann ◽

Flurina Schneider ◽

Christine Jurt ◽

Win Myint ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Oil Palm ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Forest Products ◽

Well Being ◽

Rubber Plantations ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Land User ◽

The Impact ◽

Local Perspectives

Extensive land use changes in forest frontier landscapes are leading to trade-offs in the supply of ecosystem services (ES) with, in many cases, as yet unknown effects on human well-being. In the Tanintharyi Region of Myanmar, a forest frontier landscape facing oil palm and rubber expansion, little is known about local perspectives on ES and the direct impact of trade-offs from land use change. This study assessed the trade-offs experienced with respect to 10 locally important ES from land user perspectives using social valuation techniques. The results show that while intact forests provide the most highly valued ES bundle, the conversion to rubber plantations entails fewer negative trade-offs than that to oil palm. Rubber plantations offer income, fuelwood, a good microclimate, and even new cultural identities. By contrast, oil palm concessions have caused environmental pollution, and, most decisively, have restricted local people’s access to the respective lands. The ES water flow regulation is seen as the most critical if more forest is converted; other ES, such as non-timber forest products, can be more easily substituted. We conclude that, from local perspectives, the impact of ES trade-offs highly depends on access to land and opportunities to adapt to change.

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Urban expansion in the Atlantic Forest: applying the Nature Futures Framework to develop a conceptual model and future scenarios

Biota Neotropica ◽

10.1590/1676-0611-bn-2019-0904 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 20 (suppl 1) ◽

Author(s):

Rafael Cavalcanti Lembi ◽

Cecilia Cronemberger ◽

Caroline Picharillo ◽

Sheina Koffler ◽

Pedro H. Albuquerque Sena ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Conceptual Model ◽

Atlantic Forest ◽

Urban Expansion ◽

Well Being ◽

Integrative Approach ◽

Natural Ecosystems ◽

Social Ecological ◽

Trade Offs ◽

The Impact

Abstract: The Atlantic Forest is an important hotspot of biodiversity and ecosystem services that contributes to the well-being of its 125 million human inhabitants, about three quarters of the Brazilian population. In the coming decades, forecasts show that urban areas in the Atlantic Forest will grow at the expense of natural ecosystems, leading to increasing pressure on biodiversity and ecosystem services. We used the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) for envisioning positive scenarios for cities in the Atlantic Forest. First, we developed a conceptual model based on the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) approach to describe consequences of urban growth for the three NFF perspectives: Nature for Society, Nature for Nature and Nature as Culture. Second, we proposed scenario storylines that encompass multiple social-ecological values of nature and could be used by policy makers to plan desirable futures for the Atlantic Forest. Then, we discussed the impact of distinct policies on these values, identifying the different ways in which the management of urban green and blue spaces, natural ecosystems, and urban densities can lead to different social-ecological outcomes. We further detail the complexity, trade-offs, and synergies regarding city development, nature conservation, and human well-being in this tropical hotspot. Applying NFF can contribute to the ongoing debate regarding urban sustainability, by providing an interdisciplinary and integrative approach that explicitly incorporates multiple values of nature and the visualization of positive futures.

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The Grain for Green Program Intensifies Trade-Offs between Ecosystem Services in Midwestern Shanxi, China

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13193966 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (19) ◽

pp. 3966

Author(s):

Baoan Hu ◽

Zhijie Zhang ◽

Hairong Han ◽

Zuzheng Li ◽

Xiaoqin Cheng ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Ecological Engineering ◽

Well Being ◽

Chinese Government ◽

Grain For Green ◽

Grain For Green Program ◽

Trade Offs ◽

The Impact

Ecological engineering is a widely used strategy to address environmental degradation and enhance human well-being. A quantitative assessment of the impacts of ecological engineering on ecosystem services (ESs) is a prerequisite for designing inclusive and sustainable engineering programs. In order to strengthen national ecological security, the Chinese government has implemented the world’s largest ecological project since 1999, the Grain for Green Program (GFGP). We used a professional model to evaluate the key ESs in Lvliang City. Scenario analysis was used to quantify the contribution of the GFGP to changes in ESs and the impacts of trade-offs/synergy. We used spatial regression to identify the main drivers of ES trade-offs. We found that: (1) From 2000 to 2018, the contribution rates of the GFGP to changes in carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), water yield (WY), and soil conservation (SC) were 140.92%, 155.59%, −454.48%, and 92.96%, respectively. GFGP compensated for the negative impacts of external environmental pressure on CS and HQ, and significantly improved CS, HQ, and SC, but at the expense of WY. (2) The GFGP promotes the synergistic development of CS, HQ, and SC, and also intensifies the trade-off relationships between WY and CS, WY and HQ, and WY and SC. (3) Land use change and urbanization are significantly positively correlated with the WY–CS, WY–HQ, and WY–SC trade-offs, while increases in NDVI helped alleviate these trade-offs. (4) Geographically weighted regression explained 90.8%, 94.2%, and 88.2% of the WY–CS, WY–HQ, and WY–SC trade-offs, respectively. We suggest that the ESs’ benefits from the GFGP can be maximized by controlling the intensity of land use change, optimizing the development of urbanization, and improving the effectiveness of afforestation. This general method of quantifying the impact of ecological engineering on ESs can act as a reference for future ecological restoration plans and decision-making in China and across the world.

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The impact of two decades of land-use changes in potential ecosystem services supply in a Portuguese municipality - Coimbra

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-1291 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Inês Amorim Leitão ◽

Carla Sofia Santos Ferreira ◽

António José Dinis Ferreira

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Agricultural Land ◽

Urban Expansion ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Qualitative Evaluation ◽

Well Being ◽

Positive Potential ◽

The Impact

<p>Land-use changes affect the properties of ecosystems, and are typically associated with decreasing ability to supply services, which in turn causes a decrease in the social well-being. Urbanization is identified as one of the main causes of ecosystem degradation, once it is considered an artificial space that replaces natural areas.This study investigates the impact of land-use changes during 20 years (1995-2015) on the potential supply of ecosystem services in Coimbra municipality, central Portugal. The assessment was based on the evaluation performed by 31 experts familiar with the study area, through questionnaires. The experts ranked the potential supply of 31 ecosystem services, grouped in regulation, provisioning and cultural services, for the several land-uses existent. Experts performed a qualitative evaluation, considering &#8216;strong adverse potential&#8217;, &#8216;weak adverse potential&#8217;, &#8216;not relevant&#8217;, &#8216;low positive potential&#8217; and &#8216;strong positive potential&#8217;. The qualitative evaluation was converted into a quantitative classification (-2, -1, 0, 1, 2). Quantitative values were then used to develop an ecosystem services quantification matrix and to map the information in the study area, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). An urban expansion from 14% to 18% was recorded over the last 20 years. Agricultural land decreased 8% due to conversion into forest (4% increase) and urban areas (4% increase). This has led to a decrease in the supply of provision (e.g. food) and regulation services (e.g. flood regulation). In fact, over the last years, recurrent floods have been increasingly noticed in Coimbra city. On the other hand, the growth of forest areas has led to an increase in general ESs supply. The adverse impacts of urbanization were partially compensated by enlarging the benefits provided by forest areas, which is the land-use with greatest ESs potential supply. In order to support urban planning and develop sustainable cities, it is essential to quantify the potential supply of ecosystem services considering local scale and characteristics.</p>

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Comparing the impact of future cropland expansion on global biodiversity and carbon storage across models and scenarios

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences ◽

10.1098/rstb.2019.0189 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 375 (1794) ◽

pp. 20190189 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Amy Molotoks ◽

Roslyn Henry ◽

Elke Stehfest ◽

Jonathan Doelman ◽

Petr Havlik ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Carbon Storage ◽

Direct Consequence ◽

Theme Issue ◽

Carbon Loss ◽

Projected Image ◽

The Impact ◽

Effects Of Land Use ◽

Variance Explained

Land-use change is a direct driver of biodiversity and carbon storage loss. Projections of future land use often include notable expansion of cropland areas in response to changes in climate and food demand, although there are large uncertainties in results between models and scenarios. This study examines these uncertainties by comparing three different socio-economic scenarios (SSP1–3) across three models (IMAGE, GLOBIOM and PLUMv2). It assesses the impacts on biodiversity metrics and direct carbon loss from biomass and soil as a direct consequence of cropland expansion. Results show substantial variation between models and scenarios, with little overlap across all nine projections. Although SSP1 projects the least impact, there are still significant impacts projected. IMAGE and GLOBIOM project the greatest impact across carbon storage and biodiversity metrics due to both extent and location of cropland expansion. Furthermore, for all the biodiversity and carbon metrics used, there is a greater proportion of variance explained by the model used. This demonstrates the importance of improving the accuracy of land-based models. Incorporating effects of land-use change in biodiversity impact assessments would also help better prioritize future protection of biodiverse and carbon-rich areas. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.

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Impact of climate and land use/cover changes on the carbon cycle in China (1981–2000): a system-based assessment

Biogeosciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/bgd-7-5517-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 7 (4) ◽

pp. 5517-5555

Author(s):

Z. Gao ◽

W. Gao ◽

N.-B. Chang

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

High Resolution ◽

Carbon Cycle ◽

Carbon Storage ◽

Net Primary Productivity ◽

Total Carbon ◽

Climate Effect ◽

Environmental Controls ◽

Decadal Scale ◽

The Impact

Abstract. In China, cumulative changes in climate and land use/land cover (LULC) from 1981 to 2000 had collectively affected the net productivity in the terrestrial ecosystem and thus the net carbon flux, both of which are intimately linked with the global carbon cycle. This paper represents the first national effort of its kind to systematically investigate the impact of changes of LULC on carbon cycle with high-resolution dynamic LULC data at the decadal scale (1990s and 2000s). The CEVSA was applied and driven by high resolution LULC data retrieved from remote sensing and climate data collected from two ground-based meteorological stations. In particular, it allowed us to simulate carbon fluxes (net primary productivity (NPP), vegetation carbon (VEGC) storage, soil carbon (SOC) storage, heterotrophic respiration (HR), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP)) and carbon storage from 1981 to 2000. Simulations generally agree with output from other models and results from bookkeeping approach. Based on these simulations, temporal and spatial variations in carbon storage and fluxes in China may be confirmed and we are able to relate these variations to climate variability during this period for detailed analyses to show influences of the LULC and environmental controls on NPP, NEP, HR, SOC, and VEGC. Overall, the increases in NPP were greater than HR in most of the time due to the effect of global warming with more precipitation in China from 1981 to 2000. With this trend, the NEP remained positive during that period, resulting in the net increase of total amount of carbon being stored by about 0.296 Pg C within the 20-years time frame. Because the climate effect was much greater than that of changes of LULC, the total carbon storage in China actually increased by about 0.17 Pg C within the 20 years. Such findings will contribute to the generation of control policies of carbon emissions under global climate change.

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Sources of and Control Measures for PTE Pollution in Soil at the Urban Fringe in Weinan, China

Land ◽

10.3390/land10070762 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (7) ◽

pp. 762

Author(s):

Lei Han ◽

Rui Chen ◽

Zhao Liu ◽

Shanshan Chang ◽

Yonghua Zhao ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Urban Expansion ◽

Pollution Sources ◽

Urban Fringe ◽

Control Measures ◽

Atomic Fluorescence Spectrometry ◽

Human Beings ◽

Rapid Urbanization ◽

Kriging Interpolation Method ◽

The Impact

The environment of the urban fringe is complex and frangible. With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, the urban fringe has become the primary space for urban expansion, and the intense human activities create a high risk of potentially toxic element (PTE) pollution in the soil. In this study, 138 surface soil samples were collected from a region undergoing rapid urbanization and construction—Weinan, China. Concentrations of As, Pb, Cr, Cu, and Ni (Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry, ICP-MS) and Hg (Atomic Fluorescence Spectrometry, AFS) were measured. The Kriging interpolation method was used to create a visualization of the spatial distribution characteristics and to analyze the pollution sources of PTEs in the soil. The pollution status of PTEs in the soil was evaluated using the national environmental quality standards for soils in different types of land use. The results show that the content range of As fluctuated a small amount and the coefficient of variation is small and mainly comes from natural soil formation. The content of Cr, Cu, and Ni around the automobile repair factory, the prefabrication factory, and the building material factory increased due to the deposition of wear particles in the soil. A total of 13.99% of the land in the study area had Hg pollution, which was mainly distributed on category 1 development land and farmland. Chemical plants were the main pollution sources. The study area should strictly control the industrial pollution emissions, regulate the agricultural production, adjust the land use planning, and reduce the impact of pollution on human beings. Furthermore, we make targeted remediation suggestions for each specific land use type. These results are of theoretical significance, will be of practical value for the control of PTEs in soil, and will provide ecological environmental protection in the urban fringe throughout the urbanization process.

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Spatio-temporal variation of water supply in Guizhou Province, China

Water Policy ◽

10.2166/wp.2016.036 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

pp. 181-195 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Huiqing Han ◽

Yuxiang Dong

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Water Supply ◽

Urban Expansion ◽

Guizhou Province ◽

Water Yield ◽

Freshwater Ecosystem ◽

Yield Model ◽

Invest Model ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

The Impact

Water supply is an important freshwater ecosystem service provided by ecosystems. Water shortages resulting from spatio-temporal heterogeneity of climate condition or human activities present serious problems in the Guizhou Province of southwest China. This study aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal changes of water supply service using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, explore how climate and land-use changes impact water supply provision, and discuss the impact of parameters associated with climate and land-use in the InVEST model on water supply in the region. We used data and the model to forecast trends for the year 2030 and found that water supply has been declining in the region at the watershed scale since 1990. Climate and land-use change played important roles in affecting the water supply. Water supply was overwhelmingly driven by the reference evapotranspiration and annual average precipitation, while the plant evapotranspiration coefficients for each land-use type had a relatively small effect. The method for sensitivity analysis developed in this study allowed exploration of the relative importance of parameters in the InVEST water yield model. The Grain-for-Green project, afforestation, and urban expansion control should be accelerated in this region to protect the water supply.

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