scholarly journals Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival In Synchronous Peritoneal Metastasis of Colorectal Cance

Author(s):  
Wenle Chen ◽  
Zixu Yuan ◽  
Aiwen Wu ◽  
Ming Cui ◽  
Zhongyi Yue ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Synchronous peritoneal metastases (PM) is a difficult issue to tackle and the prognosis is poor. The aim of this study is to construct a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) for synchronous colorectal peritoneal metastasis.Method: In this retrospective study, 332 patients with synchronous PM were included. The training cohort consisting of 251 patients underwent abdominal surgery from February 2007 to February 2018. The risk factors related to prognosis were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox regression model. 81 patients from other two hospitals were enrolled as validation cohort. The prediction effect of this nomogram was evaluated by C-index and the calibration curve. Result: Five predictors were enrolled into this nomogram after multivariate analysis, including age, peritoneal cancer index (PCI), completeness of cytoreductive surgery (CRS), CA19-9, and albumin. The nomogram showed the accuracy to predict the OS at 0.5, 1, 2, and 3 years. The C-index of the nomogram in the training cohort and validation cohort were 0.713 (95% CI, 0.674–0.752) and 0.642 (95% CI, 0.563-0.720) separately. Both training and validation cohorts showed good discrimination of the nomogram for OS. Calibration curves have shown the predicted OS of nomogram are consistent with actual survival.Conclusion: This novel nomogram, combined with age, PCI, CRS, CA19-9, and albumin, has shown good accuracy to predict OS in patients with synchronous PM, which could be used as an easy-to-use tool for clinicians and surgeons to make decisions.

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Chen ◽  
Shu Wang ◽  
Jing-He Lang

Abstract Background Ovarian clear cell carcinoma (OCCC) is a rare histologic type of ovarian cancer. There is a lack of an efficient prognostic predictive tool for OCCC in clinical work. This study aimed to construct and validate nomograms for predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with OCCC. Methods Data of patients with primary diagnosed OCCC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2016 was extracted. Prognostic factors were evaluated with LASSO Cox regression and multivariate Cox regression analysis, which were applied to construct nomograms. The performance of the nomogram models was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA) and risk subgroup classification. The Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to compare survival outcomes between subgroups. Results A total of 1541 patients from SEER registries were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 1079) and a validation cohort (n = 462). Age, laterality, stage, lymph node (LN) dissected, organ metastasis and chemotherapy were independently and significantly associated with OS, while laterality, stage, LN dissected, organ metastasis and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for CSS. Nomograms were developed for the prediction of 3- and 5-year OS and CSS. The C-indexes for OS and CSS were 0.802[95% confidence interval (CI) 0.773–0.831] and 0.802 (0.769–0.835), respectively, in the training cohort, while 0.746 (0.691–0.801) and 0.770 (0.721–0.819), respectively, in the validation cohort. Calibration plots illustrated favorable consistency between the nomogram predicted and actual survival. C-index and DCA curves also indicated better performance of nomogram than the AJCC staging system. Significant differences were observed in the survival curves of different risk subgroups. Conclusions We have constructed predictive nomograms and a risk classification system to evaluate the OS and CSS of OCCC patients. They were validated to be of satisfactory predictive value, and could aid in future clinical practice.


2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (4_suppl) ◽  
pp. 418-418
Author(s):  
Frederic Mercier ◽  
Iris Amblard ◽  
David L. Bartlett ◽  
Edward Allen Levine ◽  
Dario Baratti ◽  
...  

418 Background: Peritoneal metastasis from biliary carcinoma (PMC) is associated with poor prognosis when treated with chemotherapy. The objective was to evaluate the impact on survival of cytoreduction surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC), and compare with conventional palliative chemotherapy for patients with PMC. Methods: A prospective multicenter international database was retrospectively searched to identify all patients with PMC treated with a potentially curative CRS/HIPEC (CRS/HIPEC group). The overall survival (OS) was compared to patients with PMC treated with palliative chemotherapy (systemic chemotherapy group). Survival was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier method and compared with Log-Rank test. Results: Between 1995 and 2015, 34 patients were included in the surgical group, and compared to 21 in the medical group. In the surgical group, median peritoneal cancer index was 9 (range 3-26), macroscopically complete resection was obtained for 25 patients (73%). There was more gallbladder localization in the surgical group compared to the medical group (35% vs. 18%, p= 0.001). Median OS was 21.4 and 9.3 months for surgical and medical group, respectively (p =0.007). Three-year overall survival was 30% and 10% for surgical and medical group, respectively. Conclusions: Treatment with CRS and HIPEC for cholangiocarcinoma with peritoneal metastasis is feasible and may provide survival benefit when compared to palliative chemotherapy.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minling Liu ◽  
Wei Dai ◽  
Mengyuan Zhu ◽  
Xueying Li ◽  
Shan Huang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is a particular breast cancer subtype with poor prognosis due to its aggressive biological behavior and strong heterogeneity. TNBC with germline BRCA1/2 mutation (gBRCAm) have higher sensitivity to DNA damaging agents including platinum-based chemotherapy and PARP inhibitors. But the treatment of TNBC without gBRCAm remains challenging. This study aimed to develop a long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) signature of TNBC patients without gBRCAm to improve risk stratification and optimize individualized treatment.Methods: 98 TNBC patients without gBRCAm were acquired from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. The univariable Cox regression analysis and LASSO Cox regression model were applied to establish an lncRNA signature in the training cohort (N = 59). Then Kaplan–Meier survival curve and time-dependent ROC curve were used to validate the prognostic ability of the signature. The signature related mRNAs were identified using the Pearson correlation. Functional enrichment analysis of related mRNA was performed using the Metascape. The qPCR assay was performed to confirm the expressions and clinicopathological correlationsof two potential lncRNAs HAGLROS and TONSL-AS1 in 30 paired clinical triple-negative breast cancer samples without gBRCAm.Results:We developed an 8-lncRNA signature in the training cohort including HAGLROS, AL139002.1, AL391244.2, AP000696.1, AL391056.1, AL513304.1, TONSL-AS1 and AL031008.1. In both the training and validation cohort, patients with higher risk scores showed significantly worse overall survival compared to those with lower risk scores(P=0.00018 and P =0.0068 respectively). 1, 5, 8-year AUC in the training cohort were 1.000, 1.000 and 0.908 respectively, in the validation cohort were 0.785, 0.790 and 0.892 respectively indicating that our signature has a good prognostic capacity. Signature related mRNA mainly enriched in terms include RNA metabolic process, DNA repair pathways, and so on. Two potential lncRNAs HAGLROS and TONSL-AS1 were found frequently overexpressed in TNBC without gBRCAm, and significantly associated with tumor grade and invasion.Conclusions: We constructed a novel 8-lncRNA signaturewhich significantly associated with the overall survival of TNBC patients without gBRCAm. Among those 8lncRNAs, HAGLROS and TONSL-AS1 may be potential therapeutic targetswhich function needed further exploration.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Chen ◽  
Shu Wang ◽  
Jing-he Lang

Abstract Background: Ovarian clear cell carcinoma (OCCC) is a rare histologic type of ovarian cancer. There is a lack of an efficient prognostic predictive tool for OCCC in clinical work. This study aimed to construct and validate nomograms for predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with OCCC.Methods: Data of patients with primary diagnosed OCCC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2016 was extracted. Prognostic factors were evaluated with LASSO Cox regression and multivariate Cox regression analysis, which were applied to construct nomograms. The performance of the nomogram models was assessed by the concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA) and risk subgroup classification. The Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to compare survival outcomes between subgroups.Results: A total of 1541 patients from SEER registries were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=1079) and a validation cohort (n=462). Age, laterality, stage, lymph node (LN) dissected, organ metastasis and chemotherapy were independently and significantly associated with OS, while laterality, stage, LN dissected, organ metastasis and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for CSS. Nomograms were developed for the prediction of 3‐ and 5‐year OS and CSS. The C-indexes for OS and CSS were 0.802[95% confidence interval (CI) 0.773-0.831] and 0.802 (0.769-0.835), respectively, in the training cohort, while 0.746 (0.691-0.801) and 0.770 (0.721-0.819), respectively, in the validation cohort. Calibration plots illustrated favorable consistency between the nomogram predicted and actual survival. C-index and DCA curves also indicated better performance of nomogram than the AJCC staging system. Significant differences were observed in the survival curves of different risk subgroups.Conclusions: We have constructed predictive nomograms and a risk classification system to evaluate the OS and CSS of OCCC patients. They were validated to be of satisfactory predictive value, and could aid in future clinical practice.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qinqin Liu ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
Fei Liu ◽  
Weilin Yang ◽  
Jingjing Ding ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is associated with a dismal prognosis, and prediction of the prognosis of HCC can assist in therapeutic decision-makings. An increasing number of studies have shown that the texture parameters of images can reflect the heterogeneity of tumors, and may have the potential to predict the prognosis of patients with HCC after surgical resection. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of computed tomography (CT) texture parameters in patients with HCC after hepatectomy and to develop a radiomics nomogram by combining clinicopathological factors and the radiomics signature. Methods In all, 544 eligible patients were enrolled in this retrospective study and were randomly divided into the training cohort (n = 381) and the validation cohort (n = 163). The tumor regions of interest (ROIs) were delineated, and the corresponding texture parameters were extracted. The texture parameters were selected by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox model in the training cohort, and a radiomics signature was established. Then, the radiomics signature was further validated as an independent risk factor for overall survival (OS). The radiomics nomogram was established based on the Cox regression model. The concordance index (C-index), calibration plot and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the radiomics nomogram. Results The radiomics signature was formulated based on 7 OS-related texture parameters, which were selected in the training cohort. In addition, the radiomics nomogram was developed based on the following five variables: α-fetoprotein (AFP), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), largest tumor size, microvascular invasion (MVI) and radiomics score (Rad-score). The nomogram displayed good accuracy in predicting OS (C-index = 0.747) in the training cohort and was confirmed in the validation cohort (C-index = 0.777). The calibration plots also showed excellent agreement between the actual and predicted survival probabilities. The DCA indicated that the radiomics nomogram showed better clinical utility than the clinicopathologic nomogram. Conclusion The radiomics signature is a potential prognostic biomarker of HCC after hepatectomy. The radiomics nomogram that integrated the radiomics signature can provide a more accurate estimation of OS than the clinicopathologic nomogram for HCC patients after hepatectomy.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunyuan Cen ◽  
Liying Liu ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Ailan Wu ◽  
Huan Liu ◽  
...  

ObjectivesTo construct a nomogram model that combines clinical characteristics and radiomics signatures to preoperatively discriminate pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in stage I-II and III-IV and predict overall survival.MethodsA total of 135 patients with histopathologically confirmed PDAC who underwent contrast-enhanced CT were included. A total of 384 radiomics features were extracted from arterial phase (AP) or portal venous phase (PVP) images. Four steps were used for feature selection, and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to build radiomics signatures and combined nomogram model. Performance of the proposed model was assessed by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Kaplan-Meier analysis was applied to analyze overall survival in the stage I-II and III-IV PDAC groups.ResultsThe AP+PVP radiomics signature showed the best performance among the three radiomics signatures [training cohort: area under the curve (AUC) = 0.919; validation cohort: AUC = 0.831]. The combined nomogram model integrating AP+PVP radiomics signature with clinical characteristics (tumor location, carcinoembryonic antigen level, and tumor maximum diameter) demonstrated the best discrimination performance (training cohort: AUC = 0.940; validation cohort: AUC = 0.912). Calibration curves and DCA verified the clinical usefulness of the combined nomogram model. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that overall survival of patients in the predicted stage I-II PDAC group was longer than patients in stage III-IV PDAC group (p<0.0001).ConclusionsWe propose a combined model with excellent performance for the preoperative, individualized, noninvasive discrimination of stage I-II and III-IV PDAC and prediction of overall survival.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Chen ◽  
Shu Wang ◽  
Jing-he Lang

Abstract Background Ovarian clear cell carcinoma (OCCC) is a rare histologic type of ovarian cancer. There is a lack of useful prognostic predictive tool for OCCC in clinical work. This study aimed to construct and validate nomograms for predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with OCCC. Methods Data of patients with primary diagnosed OCCC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2016 was extracted. Prognostic factors were evaluated with LASSO COX regression and multivariate Cox regression analysis, which were applied to construct nomograms. The performance of the nomogram models was assessed by concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA) and risk subgroup classification. The Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to compare survival outcomes between subgroups. Results A total of 1541 patients from SEER registries were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 1079) and a validation cohort (n = 462). Age, laterality, stage, lymph node (LN) dissected, organ metastasis and chemotherapy were independently and significantly associated with OS, while laterality, stage, LN dissected, organ metastasis and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for CSS. Nomograms were developed for prediction of 3- and 5‐year OS and CSS. The C-indexes for OS and CSS were 0.802[95% confidence interval (CI) 0.773–0.831] and 0.802 (0.769–0.835), respectively, in the training cohort, while 0.746 (0.691–0.801) and 0.770 (0.721–0.819), respectively, in the validation cohort. Calibration plots illustrated favorable consistency between the nomogram predicted and actual survival. C-index and DCA curves also indicated better performance of nomogram than the AJCC staging system. Significant differences were observed in survival curves of different risk subgroups. Conclusions We constructed predictive nomograms and a risk classification system to evaluate the OS and CSS of OCCC patients. They were validated to be of satisfactory predictive value, and could aid in future clinical practice.


2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
John Spiliotis ◽  
Vasileios Kalles ◽  
Ioannis Kyriazanos ◽  
Alexios Terra ◽  
Anastasia Prodromidou ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundCombining cytoreductive surgery (CRS) with Hyperthermic IntraPeritoneal Chemotherapy (HIPEC) can benefit patients with peritoneal metastasis from colorectal cancer. The present study evaluates the small bowel subset of the Peritoneal Cancer Index (Small-Bowel-PCI score (SB-PCI), min-max 0–12) as a prognostic factor in such patients.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed patients that underwent CRS and HIPEC for recurrent colorectal cancer with peritoneal metastasis. Patient characteristics, procedure details, and clinical outcomes were evaluated.ResultsEighty patients were included. The mean intraoperative PCI-score was 16.8, with a mean SB-PCI score of 5.9. CC0/1 was achieved in 62/80 patients. The mean follow-up period was 26.3 months. Univariate regression analysis showed that the ECOG status, the presence of severe complications, the HIPEC regimen (oxaliplatin vs. mitomycin-C), the PCI score, the SB-PCI score and the completeness of cytoreduction correlated significantly with overall survival. In multivariate analysis, the SB-PCI and CC score were identified as independent prognostic factors of survival. When the SB-PCI was stratified in three groups (0–4, 5–8 and 9–12), Kaplan–Meier curve analysis showed significant difference in survival (p<0.001).ConclusionsThe SB-PCI correlates with overall survival in patients with peritoneal metastases secondary to colorectal cancer in this retrospective cohort. Its use should be validated in prospective patient series.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. e0242263
Author(s):  
Huan Luo ◽  
Chao Ma

Background Uveal melanoma (UM) is the most common primary intraocular malignancy in adults. Many previous studies have demonstrated that the infiltrating of immune and stromal cells in the tumor microenvironment contributes significantly to prognosis. Methods Dataset TCGA-UVM, download from TCGA portal, was taken as the training cohort, and GSE22138, obtained from GEO database, was set as the validation cohort. ESTIMATE algorithm was applied to find intersection differentially expressed genes (DEGs) among tumor microenvironment. Kaplan-Meier analysis and univariate Cox regression model were performed on intersection DEGs to initial screen for potential prognostic genes. Then these genes entered into the validation cohort for validation using the same methods as that in the training cohort. Moreover, we conducted correlation analyses between the genes obtained in the validation cohort and the status of chromosome 3, chromosome 8q, and tumor metastasis to get prognosis genes. At last, the immune infiltration analysis was performed between the prognostic genes and 6 main kinds of tumor-infiltrating immune cells (TICs) for understanding the role of the genes in the tumor microenvironment. Results 959 intersection DEGs were found in the UM microenvironment. Kaplan-Meier and Cox analysis was then performed in the training and validation cohorts on these DEGs, and 52 genes were identified with potential prognostic value. After comparing the 52 genes to chromosome 3, chromosome 8q, and metastasis, we obtained 21 genes as the prognostic genes. The immune infiltration analysis showed that Neutrophil had the potential prognostic ability, and almost every prognostic gene we had identified was correlated with abundances of Neutrophil and CD8+ T Cell. Conclusions Identifying 21 prognosis genes (SERPINB9, EDNRB, RAPGEF3, HFE, RNF43, ZNF415, IL12RB2, MTUS1, NEDD9, ZNF667, AZGP1, WARS, GEM, RAB31, CALHM2, CA12, MYEOV, CELF2, SLCO5A1, ISM1, and PAPSS2) could accurately identify patients' prognosis and had close interactions with Neutrophil in the tumor environment, which may provide UM patients with personalized prognosis prediction and new treatment insights.


2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuanhe Sun ◽  
Kang Li ◽  
Gang Xu ◽  
Kun Zhu ◽  
Qiong Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The prognosis of patients with colorectal cancer and peritoneal metastasis (CRC-PM) after incomplete cytoreductive surgery (CRS) or palliative surgery is poor. Novel and effective therapies are urgently needed. This study aimed to assess the effects of palliative postoperative hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) in patients with CRC-PM. Methods This retrospective study included patients with CRC-PM at the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University in 05/2014–05/2019. Observation indicators included overall survival (OS), ascites-free survival, peritoneal cancer index (PCI), and completeness of cytoreduction (CC). Kaplan-Meier survival curves and multivariable Cox regression models were used to determine the factors associated with OS and ascites-free survival. The ascites-specific quality of life (QoL) was measured using the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Ascites Index (FACIT-AI). Results Eighty-two patients were included, including 37 and 45 in the HIPEC and non-HIPEC groups, respectively. Mean OS was 10.3±3.7 (95% CI 9.5–11.2) months. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression suggested that PCI (HR=6.086, 95% CI 3.187–11.620, P < 0.0001) was independently associated with OS. The degree of ascites (HR=2.059, 95% CI 1.412–3.005, P < 0.0001), PCI (HR=6.504, 95% CI 2.844–14.875, P < 0.0001), and HIPEC (HR=0.328, 95% CI 0.191–0.562, P < 0.0001) were independently associated with ascites-free survival. In patients with survival >6 months, postoperative ascites-specific QoL was significantly improved after HIPEC compared with the non-HIPEC group (P < 0.001). Oxaliplatin-based HIPEC significantly increased the rates of neutropenia and peripheral neurotoxicity (both P < 0.05). Conclusion These data indicate that postoperative oxaliplatin-based HIPEC might help increase ascites-free survival in CRC-PM patients after incomplete CRS or palliative surgery, with improved QoL after 6 months of follow-up.


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