scholarly journals Climate Suitable Conditions Index and Autochthonous Dengue Infections: an Early Warning Index

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinting Lu ◽  
Hilary Bambrick ◽  
Francesca D. Frentiu ◽  
Xiaodong Huang ◽  
Callan Davis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Dengue Case ◽  
Vector Species ◽  
Dengue Outbreak ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background: Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of dengue and contributes to most major epidemics of this virus worldwide. Aedes albopictus is also blamed for certain epidemics, as the 2014 Guangdong dengue outbreak. In Guangdong province, Ae. albopictus is thought to be the dominant vector species, with Ae. aegypti absent from most areas. Whether or not primary mosquito vectors are present, optimal climatic conditions for dengue vector species may play a substantial role in epidemics of the virus. We hypothesise that although vector species are required to initiate and establish an outbreak, favourable weather conditions may then grow and perpetuate the outbreak via complex effects on vector sympatry or interactions.Methods: Vector spices-specific suitable conditions index (SCI) and autochthonous dengue case data were fitted to negative binomial (NB) regression models. After accounting for potential confounders, we assessed the relationship between SCI and autochthonous dengue cases. We assumed SCI interaction was a proxy for vector species sympatry and SCI difference a proxy for interspecies competition. Finally, we explored the relationship between these assumed conditions and the autochthonous dengue case. Results: Autochthonous dengue cases are associated negatively with SCI for Ae.albopictus and positively with SCI for Ae.aegypti. According to the NB regression models, autochthonous dengue cases increased 4% (Incident Rate Ratio (IRR): 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.06) for every unit increase in SCI for Ae. aegypti, but decreased by 3% (IRR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.96, 0.99) for Ae. albopictus SCI. There was also an interaction between two SCIs and a positive effect of the difference in SCIs on autochthonous dengue cases. These findings support the hypothesis that vector sympatry and interactions may influence the risk of a dengue outbreak.Conclusions: Our results confirm the hypothesis that the dengue virus is more transmissible in regions with warmer weather conditions (high SCI for Ae. aegypti). SCI of Ae. aegypti would be a valuable index to predict dengue transmission even in the absence of Ae. aegypti but with Ae. albopictus present. The results also support that the SCI is beneficial for evaluating dengue outbreak risk in terms of vector sympatry and interactions in the absence of entomology data in future research.

scholarly journals 694 Insufficient sleep linked with higher COVID-19 infection cases and deaths in the United States

SLEEP ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 44 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. A271-A271
Author(s):  
Azizi Seixas ◽  
Nicholas Pantaleo ◽  
Samrachana Adhikari ◽  
Michael Grandner ◽  
Giardin Jean-Louis
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
The United States ◽  
Poor Sleep ◽  
County Level ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Insufficient Sleep ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Rural Counties ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Introduction Causes of COVID-19 burden in urban, suburban, and rural counties are unclear, as early studies provide mixed results implicating high prevalence of pre-existing health risks and chronic diseases. However, poor sleep health that has been linked to infection-based pandemics may provide additional insight for place-based burden. To address this gap, we investigated the relationship between habitual insufficient sleep (sleep <7 hrs./24 hr. period) and COVID-19 cases and deaths across urban, suburban, and rural counties in the US. Methods County-level variables were obtained from the 2014–2018 American community survey five-year estimates and the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. These included percent with insufficient sleep, percent uninsured, percent obese, and social vulnerability index. County level COVID-19 infection and death data through September 12, 2020 were obtained from USA Facts. Cumulative COVID-19 infections and deaths for urban (n=68), suburban (n=740), and rural (n=2331) counties were modeled using separate negative binomial mixed effects regression models with logarithmic link and random state-level intercepts. Zero-inflated models were considered for deaths among suburban and rural counties to account for excess zeros. Results Multivariate regression models indicated positive associations between cumulative COVID-19 infection rates and insufficient sleep in urban, suburban and rural counties. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) for urban counties was 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01 – 1.05), 1.04 (95% CI: 1.02 – 1.05) for suburban, and 1.02 (95% CI: 1.00 – 1.03) rural counties.. Similar positive associations were observed with county-level COVID-19 death rates, IRR = 1.11 (95% CI: 1.07 – 1.16) for urban counties, IRR = 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01 – 1.06) for suburban counties, and IRR = 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01 – 1.05) for rural counties. Level of urbanicity moderated the association between insufficient sleep and COVID deaths, but not for the association between insufficient sleep and COVID infection rates. Conclusion Insufficient sleep was associated with COVID-19 infection cases and mortality rates in urban, suburban and rural counties. Level of urbanicity only moderated the relationship between insufficient sleep and COVID death rates. Future studies should investigate individual-level analysis to understand the role of sleep mitigating COVID-19 infection and death rates. Support (if any) NIH (K07AG052685, R01MD007716, R01HL142066, K01HL135452, R01HL152453

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Alcohol Beverage Types and Violence

2018 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 183-200
Author(s):  
Aleksandra J. Snowden
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Neighborhood Characteristics ◽  
Substantial Evidence ◽  
Alcohol Outlets ◽  
Observation Instrument ◽  
Beverage Type ◽  
Social Observation ◽  
Ecological Association ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Relationship

There is substantial evidence of an ecological association between off-premise alcohol outlets and violence. We know less, however, about how specific beverage types that are sold in the outlets might explain the difference in violence rates across different alcohol outlets. Data on alcohol beverage types were collected for all off-premise alcohol outlets in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, using a systematic social observation instrument. Spatially lagged regression models were estimated to determine whether the variation in alcohol beverage types is related to robbery density net of important neighborhood predictors of crime rates. Availability of all alcohol beverage types (beer, wine, spirits, premixed, single beer, single spirits, single premixed) was positively associated with the density of robberies, net of neighborhood characteristics. Reducing alcohol beverages, regardless of the beverage type, sold at off-premise alcohol outlets may reduce violence in communities.

scholarly journals Concentration of Banking Sector and Loan Markups in Short Term: An Example from Poland

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-44
Author(s):  
Krysztof Drachal
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Regression Techniques ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this paper is to present an analysis of the relationship between concentration of the banking sector and banks' markups on offered loans. The markup is understood as the difference between the rate offered by banks and the reference rate fixed by the Monetary Policy Council. The period between 2009 and 2013 was analyzed. Monthly data from the Polish banking sector were considered. This paper also consists of the literature review, which focuses on the mortgage market. The methodology used for the analysis is based mainly on simple linear regression techniques. It is found that such methods are not sufficient to give conclusive answers. Therefore additional future research is proposed.

Scared or Attached? Unraveling Important Links in Strain–Crime Relationships Among School Students

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (8) ◽  
pp. 1175-1201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anastasiia Kuptsevych-Timmer ◽  
Olena Antonaccio ◽  
Ekaterina V. Botchkovar ◽  
William R. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Parental Monitoring ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Adolescent Delinquency ◽  
Research Needs ◽  
School Students ◽  
Decomposition Procedure ◽  
Theory Of Crime ◽  
General Strain ◽  
The Relationship

Drawing on general strain theory of crime, the study employs the survey data from a random sample of 600 school students in Lviv, Ukraine, to examine how sanction risks and social bonds mediate and moderate the relationship between strain and adolescent delinquency. Findings from negative binomial regressions and the KHB decomposition procedure demonstrate that fear of sanctions and levels of social control mediate the relationships between strain and delinquency to a different degree, depending on the type of strain experienced. Results concerning conditioning effects are mixed, with only parental monitoring found to be a moderator of the strain–delinquency link. However, the direction of the interaction effect is unexpected. Future research needs to improve the specification of strain models and evaluate them in other sociocultural contexts.

scholarly journals Climate as an Evolutionary Driver of Nest Morphology in Birds: A Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela M. Perez ◽  
Janet L. Gardner ◽  
Iliana Medina
Keyword(s):  
Local Environment ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Extended Phenotype ◽  
The Face ◽  
Building Behavior ◽  
Fledgling Success ◽  
Nest Microclimate ◽  
The Relationship

Avian nests are critical for successful reproduction in birds. Nest microclimate can affect egg development, chick growth and fledgling success, suggesting that nest building behavior should be under strong selective pressure to nesting conditions. Given that the internal microclimate of the nest is critical for avian fitness, it is expected that nest morphology is shaped by the local environment. Here we review the relationship between nest morphology and climate across species’ distributions. We collate growing evidence that supports a link between environmental conditions and particular nest traits, within species and across species. We discuss the degree to which phenotypic plasticity in nesting behavior can contribute to observed variation in nest traits, the role of phylogenetic history in determining nest morphology, and which nest traits are likely to be influenced by climatic conditions. Finally, we identify gaps in our understanding of the evolution of nest morphology and suggest topics for future research. Overall, we argue that nests are part of the extended phenotype of a bird, they play a crucial role in their reproductive success, and may be an important factor in determining which species will be able to persist in the face of ongoing climate change.

scholarly journals Predicting SARS-CoV-2 Weather-Induced Seasonal Virulence from Atmospheric Air Enthalpy

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (23) ◽  
pp. 9059
Author(s):  
Angelo Spena ◽  
Leonardo Palombi ◽  
Massimo Corcione ◽  
Alessandro Quintino ◽  
Mariachiara Carestia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Specific Enthalpy ◽  
Atmospheric Air ◽  
Italian Provinces ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Risk Scale ◽  
Correlating Equation

Following the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several studies have examined the possibility of correlating the virulence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, to the climatic conditions of the involved sites; however, inconclusive results have been generally obtained. Although neither air temperature nor humidity can be independently correlated with virus viability, a strong relationship between SARS-CoV-2 virulence and the specific enthalpy of moist air appears to exist, as confirmed by extensive data analysis. Given this framework, the present study involves a detailed investigation based on the first 20–30 days of the epidemic before public health interventions in 30 selected Italian provinces with rather different climates, here assumed as being representative of what happened in the country from North to South, of the relationship between COVID-19 distributions and the climatic conditions recorded at each site before the pandemic outbreak. Accordingly, a correlating equation between the incidence rate at the early stage of the epidemic and the foregoing average specific enthalpy of atmospheric air was developed, and an enthalpy-based seasonal virulence risk scale was proposed to predict the potential danger of COVID-19 outbreak due to the persistence of weather conditions favorable to SARS-CoV-2 viability. As an early detection tool, an unambiguous risk chart expressed in terms of coupled temperatures and relative humidity (RH) values was provided, showing that safer conditions occur in the case of higher RHs at the highest temperatures, and of lower RHs at the lowest temperatures. Despite the complex determinism and dynamics of the pandemic and the related caveats, the restriction of the study to its early stage allowed the proposed risk scale to result in agreement with the available infectivity data highlighted in the literature for a number of cities around the world.

scholarly journals The relationship of agroclimatic factors and the yield of potato varieties in the conditions of the near Moscow region

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (44) ◽  
pp. 21-21
Author(s):  
Alexander Saakian ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Starch Content ◽  
Organic Fertilizer ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Hydrothermal Coefficient ◽  
Potato Varieties ◽  
Yield And Quality ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Relationship

In 2005-2015. studied the effect of liquid organic fertilizer BIOOD-1 as foliar feeding on the yield and quality of various potato varieties in changing meteorological conditions. According to the results of the experiments, it was established that the most stable yields under various weather conditions were shown by the potatoes of the mid-season variety Bryansk delicacy. The low starch content of varieties Nevsky, Udacha was noted in years of high humidity, but with a lack of moisture, the starch content of these varieties increased in the background variant and in the experiment with organic fertilization. Keywords: CLIMATIC CONDITIONS, HYDROTHERMAL COEFFICIENT, MEAN SENIOR PRECIPITATION, POTATO, YIELD, STARCH, HUMIC FERTILIZERS

scholarly journals Predicting SARS-CoV-2 Weather-Induced Seasonal Virulence from Atmospheric Air Enthalpy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angelo Spena ◽  
Leonardo Palombi ◽  
Massimo Corcione ◽  
Alessandro Quintino ◽  
Mariachiara Carestia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Specific Enthalpy ◽  
Atmospheric Air ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Italian Provinces ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Risk Scale ◽  
Correlating Equation

Following the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, several studies have examined the possibility of correlating the virulence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, to the climatic conditions of the involved sites; however, inconclusive results have been generally obtained. Although either air temperature or humidity cannot be independently correlated with virus viability, a strong relationship between SARS-CoV-2 virulence and the specific enthalpy of moist air appears to exist, as confirmed by extensive data analysis. Given this framework, the present study involves a detailed investigation based on the first 20–30 days of the epidemic before public health interventions in 30 selected Italian provinces with rather different climates, here assumed as being representative of what happened in the country from North to South, of the relationship between COVID-19 distributions and the climatic conditions recorded at each site before the pandemic outbreak. Accordingly, a correlating equation between the incidence rate of the pandemic and the average specific enthalpy of atmospheric air was developed, and an enthalpy-based seasonal virulence risk scale was proposed as a tool to predict the potential danger of COVID-19 spread due to the persistence of weather conditions favorable to SARS-CoV-2 viability. For practical applications, a conclusive risk chart expressed in terms of coupled temperatures and relative humidity (RH) values was provided, showing that safer conditions occur in case of higher RH at the highest temperatures, and of lower RH at the lowest temperatures. The proposed risk scale was in agreement with the available infectivity data in the literature for a number of cities around the world.

The Relationship Between Self-Regulatory Efficacy and Physical Activity in Adolescents With a Caveat: A Cross-Lag Design Examining Weather

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 210-216
Author(s):  
Kathleen S. Wilson ◽  
Kevin S. Spink
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Self Efficacy ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Cold Weather ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Future Research ◽  
School Year ◽  
Warm Weather ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose: The use of self-efficacy to predict physical activity has a long history. However, this relationship is complex, as self-efficacy is thought to influence and be influenced by physical activity. The directionality of the self-regulatory efficacy (SRE) and physical activity relationship was examined using a cross-lagged design. A secondary purpose was to examine these relationships across differing weather conditions. Methods: Canadian adolescents (N = 337; aged between 13 and 18 years) completed the physical activity and SRE measures 4 times during a school year. Structural equation modeling was used to perform a cross-lag analysis. Results: The relationships between physical activity and SRE appeared to be weather dependent. During a more challenging weather period (eg, cold weather), the relationship between physical activity and SRE was bidirectional. However, no relationship emerged when the 2 constructs were assessed during a more optimal weather period (eg, warm weather). Conclusions: Some support has been provided for the bidirectional nature of the relationship between physical activity and SRE. The relationship appeared to be qualified by climate considerations, suggesting that future research examine how weather may relate not just to physical activity but also to the correlates of physical activity.

scholarly journals Prediction of Plastic Shrinkage Cracking of Self-Compacting Concrete

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parviz Ghoddousi ◽  
Armin Monir Abbasi ◽  
Esmail Shahrokhinasab ◽  
Mohammad Abedin
Keyword(s):  
Shrinkage Strain ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Water Evaporation ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Self Compacting Concrete ◽  
Shrinkage Cracking ◽  
Plastic Shrinkage ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Concrete Elements

Concrete exposed to hot climatic conditions is prone to plastic shrinkage after casting within the first few hours due to the water evaporation and restraining conditions of concrete. This cracking is more commonly observed in concrete elements with a large surface area exposed to drying. In this research, plastic shrinkage of 13 self-compacting concrete samples with different cement paste volumes and various coarse to total aggregate ratios was studied. Test specimens of fresh concrete were subjected to a wind tunnel, which simulated hot dry environmental condition immediately after casting. It can be observed from the test results that the relationship between free plastic shrinkage and the difference between bleeding and evaporation is direct and linear. Finally, a model for plastic shrinkage estimation was suggested by considering the effect of free plastic shrinkage strain, restraining factor, and tensile strain capacity of self-compacting concrete.

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