scholarly journals Equivalent Hazard Magnitude Scale

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Wang ◽  
Antonia Sebastian
Keyword(s):  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Magnitude Scale ◽  
Effective Management ◽  
Hazard Management ◽  
Disaster Communication ◽  
Magnitude Scales

Abstract Effective management of natural hazards requires the capability of cross-hazard evaluations. However, existing hazard magnitude scales cannot be easily adapted to evaluate sizes of events across different hazard types. Here, we propose a regression-based methodology with historical data on hazard impacts and magnitude indicators worldwide from 1900 to 2020 to derive an equivalent magnitude scale, called the Gardoni Scale after Professor Paolo Gardoni, to effectively quantify and compare sizes of events across twelve natural hazard types. Our results suggest that when compared on the Gardoni Scale, tsunami and drought disasters tend to have large magnitudes, while tornadoes are relatively small in size. We further propose hazard equivalency as a new area of research for cross-hazard evaluations of sizes and intensities of natural hazard events. Continuing efforts in this new area will strengthen guidance for resource allocation for hazard management, facilitate disaster communication, and enhance risk analysis within a multi-hazard context.

Pipeline Vulnerability to Natural Hazards

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
José Vicente Amórtegui
Keyword(s):  
Stress State ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Monitoring Systems ◽  
System Vulnerability ◽  
Preventive Actions ◽  
Strength And Stiffness ◽  
External Forces

The strength and stiffness of the pipelines allow them to tolerate the effects of natural hazards for some period of time. The amount of time depends on the strength and deformability, the stress state, the age, the conditions of installation and operation of the pipeline and their geometric arrangement with regard to the hazardous process. Accordingly, some of the hazards due to weather conditions and external forces would not be time independent. In consequence the designing of monitoring systems to predict the behavior of the pipelines against natural hazards is required in order to carry out the preventive actions which are necessary to avoid failure of the pipes due to the exposition to those hazards. In this paper a method for assessing the transport system vulnerability is developed, a function for risk analysis is proposed (which is determined by the probability of the natural hazard, the pipeline’s vulnerability to the hazard and the consequences of the pipe rupture). The elements that are part of that evaluation are presented and illustrated by means of examples.

Rural Intelligent Transportation System Natural-Hazard Management on Low-Volume Roads

2003 ◽  
Vol 1819 (1) ◽  
pp. 255-259
Author(s):  
Rand Decker ◽  
Robert Rice ◽  
Steve Putnam ◽  
Stanford Singer
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Traffic Control ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Intelligent Transportation System ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Intelligent Transportation ◽  
Transportation System ◽  
Hazard Management ◽  
Low Volume ◽  
Road Closure

The growth of winter travel on alpine roads in the western United States has increased the risk to motorists and highway maintenance personnel owing to a variety of natural hazards. Hazards include snow and ice, avalanching snow, and blowing and drifting snow. The conditions call for attendant need for incident response. A substantial number of affected routes are low-volume rural winter roads. Configurations have been developed for rural intelligent transportation system (ITS) technology that can detect hazards and provide, autonomously and in real time, warnings to and traffic control actions for motorists, highway maintainers, and incident responders for roadway natural hazards. These warnings include on-site traffic control signing and road closure gates, in-vehicle audio alarms for agency maintenance and patrol vehicles, and notification to highway agency maintenance facilities or centralized multiagency dispatchers. These actions and notifications are initiated automatically from the remote rural sites and via manual intervention from off-site personnel, well removed from the rural roadway corridor itself. About 5 years of experience have been accumulated in using these rural ITS natural-hazard reduction systems, including snow avalanche detection and warning systems on Loveland Pass, Colorado; Hoback Canyon, Wyoming; and Banner Summit, Idaho. Automated road closure gates on the Teton Pass in Idaho and Wyoming now allow for remote road closure during heavy snow events. These cost-effective ITS natural-hazard systems are highly exportable for other processes that affect rural low-volume roadways, including landslide, flooding, high surf, high winds, loss of visibility, wildlife, and other natural hazards of this type.

Natural Hazards and Their Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dewald van Niekerk ◽  
Livhuwani David Nemakonde
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Hazard Management ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Sub Saharan

The sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) region, along with the rest of the African continent, is prone to a wide variety of natural hazards. Most of these hazards and the associated disasters are relatively silent and insidious, encroaching on life and livelihoods, increasing social, economic, and environmental vulnerability even to moderate events. With the majority of SSA’s disasters being of hydrometeorological origin, climate change through an increase in the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events is likely to exacerbate the situation. Whereas a number of countries in SSA face significant governance challenges to effectively respond to disasters and manage risk reduction measures, considerable progress has been made since the early 2000s in terms of policies, strategies, and/or institutional mechanisms to advance disaster risk reduction and disaster risk management. As such, most countries in SSA have developed/reviewed policies, strategies, and plans and put in place institutions with dedicated staffs and resources for natural hazard management. However, the lack of financial backing, limited skills, lack of coordination among sectors, weak political leadership, inadequate communication, and shallow natural hazard risk assessment, hinders effective natural hazard management in SSA. The focus here is on the governance of natural hazards in the sub-Saharan Africa region, and an outline of SSA’s natural hazard profile is presented. Climate change is increasing the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events, thus influencing the occurrence of natural hazards in this region. Also emphasized are good practices in natural hazard governance, and SSA’s success stories are described. Finally, recommendations on governance arrangements for effective implementation of disaster risk reduction initiatives and measures are provided.

scholarly journals Review article: Assessing the costs of natural hazards – state of the art and knowledge gaps

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1351-1373 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Meyer ◽  
N. Becker ◽  
V. Markantonis ◽  
R. Schwarze ◽  
J. C. J. M. van den Bergh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Cost Assessment ◽  
Knowledge Gaps ◽  
Hazard Management ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Risk Dynamics

Abstract. Efficiently reducing natural hazard risks requires a thorough understanding of the costs of natural hazards. Current methods to assess these costs employ a variety of terminologies and approaches for different types of natural hazards and different impacted sectors. This may impede efforts to ascertain comprehensive and comparable cost figures. In order to strengthen the role of cost assessments in the development of integrated natural hazard management, a review of existing cost assessment approaches was undertaken. This review considers droughts, floods, coastal and Alpine hazards, and examines different cost types, namely direct tangible damages, losses due to business interruption, indirect damages, intangible effects, and the costs of risk mitigation. This paper provides an overview of the state-of-the-art cost assessment approaches and discusses key knowledge gaps. It shows that the application of cost assessments in practice is often incomplete and biased, as direct costs receive a relatively large amount of attention, while intangible and indirect effects are rarely considered. Furthermore, all parts of cost assessment entail considerable uncertainties due to insufficient or highly aggregated data sources, along with a lack of knowledge about the processes leading to damage and thus the appropriate models required. Recommendations are provided on how to reduce or handle these uncertainties by improving data sources and cost assessment methods. Further recommendations address how risk dynamics due to climate and socio-economic change can be better considered, how costs are distributed and risks transferred, and in what ways cost assessment can function as part of decision support.

Methods and Tools for Natural Hazard Risk Analysis in Eastern Canada: Using Knowledge to Understand Vulnerability and Implement Mitigation Measures

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Miroslav Nastev ◽  
Marie-José Nollet ◽  
Ahmad Abo El Ezz ◽  
Alex Smirnoff ◽  
Sarah Kate Ploeger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Hazard Risk

A Common Approach to Risk Analysis Methodology

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Robert Sims
Keyword(s):  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Broad Spectrum ◽  
Analysis Methodology ◽  
Risk Ranking ◽  
Homeland Defense ◽  
Narrow Area ◽  
Allocation Decisions ◽  
Resource Allocation Decisions

Risk analysis has been used extensively to inform decisions throughout government and industry for many years. Many methodologies have been developed to perform these analyses, resulting in differences in terminology and approach that make it difficult to compare the results of an analysis in one field to that in another. In particular, many approaches result only in a risk ranking within a narrow area or field of interest, so the results cannot be compared to rankings in other areas or fields. However, dealing with terrorist threats requires prioritizing the allocation of homeland defense resources across a broad spectrum of possible targets. Therefore, a common approach is needed to allow comparison of risks. This presentation summarizes an approach that will allow the results of risk analyses based on using current methodologies to be expressed in a common format with common terminology to facilitate resource allocation decisions.

RISK ANALYSIS OF OFFSHORE TRANSPORTATION ACCIDENT IN ARCTIC WATERS

2021 ◽  
Vol 159 (A3) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Abbassi ◽  
F Khan ◽  
N Khakzad ◽  
B Veitch ◽  
S Ehlers
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Fault Trees ◽  
Northern Sea Route ◽  
Accident Scenarios ◽  
Oil Tanker ◽  
Harsh Conditions ◽  
Monte Carlo Framework ◽  
Transportation Accident

A methodology for risk analysis applicable to shipping in arctic waters is introduced. This methodology uses the Bowtie relationship to represent an accident causes and consequences. It is further used to quantify the probability of a ship accident and also the related accident consequences during navigation in arctic waters. Detailed fault trees for three possible ship accident scenarios in arctic transits are developed and represented as bowties. Factors related to cold and harsh conditions and their effects on grounding, foundering, and collision are considered as part of this study. To illustrate the application of the methodology, it is applied to a case of an oil-tanker navigating on the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The methodology is implemented in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo framework to assess the uncertainties arisen from historical data and expert judgments involved in the risk analysis.

scholarly journals Landscape analysis for multi-hazard prevention in Orco and Soana valleys, Northwest Italy

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 1963-1972 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Turconi ◽  
D. Tropeano ◽  
G. Savio ◽  
S. K. De ◽  
P. J. Mason
Keyword(s):  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Thematic Maps ◽  
Italian Alps ◽  
Alpine Environment ◽  
Natural Risk ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Morphological Studies ◽  
Field Evidence ◽  
Different Types

Abstract. The study area (600 km2), consisting of Orco and Soana valleys in the Western Italian Alps, experienced different types of natural hazards, typical of the whole Alpine environment. Some of the authors have been requested to draw a civil protection plan for such mountainous regions. This offered the special opportunity (1) to draw a lot of unpublished historical data, dating back several centuries mostly concerning natural hazard processes and related damages, (2) to develop original detailed geo-morphological studies in a region still poorly known, (3) to prepare detailed thematic maps illustrating landscape components related to natural conditions and hazards, (4) to thoroughly check present-day situations in the area compared to the effects of past events and (5) to find adequate natural hazard scenarios for all sites exposed to risk. The method of work has been essentially to compare archival findings with field evidence in order to assess natural hazard processes, their occurrence and magnitude, and to arrange all such elements in a database for GIS-supported thematic maps. Several types of natural hazards, such as landslides, rockfalls, debris flows, stream floods and snow avalanches cause huge damage to lives and properties (housings, roads, tourist sites). We aim to obtain newly acquired knowledge in this large, still poorly understood area as well as develop easy-to-interpret products such as natural risk maps.

scholarly journals Assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Unni Marie Kolderup Eidsvig ◽  
Krister Kristensen ◽  
Bjørn Vidar Vangelsten
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Quality Level ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Natural Event ◽  
Ranking Criteria ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
Restoration Effort

Abstract. This paper proposes a model for assessing the risk posed by natural hazards to infrastructures. The model prescribes a three level analysis with increasing level of detail, moving from qualitative to quantitative analysis. The focus is on a methodology for semi-quantitative analysis to be performed at the second level. The purpose of this type of analysis is to perform a screening of the scenarios of natural hazards threatening the infrastructures, identifying the most critical scenarios and investigating the need for further analyses (third level). The proposed semi-quantitative methodology considers the frequency of the natural hazard, different aspects of vulnerability including the physical vulnerability of the infrastructure itself and the societal dependency on the infrastructure. An indicator-based approach is applied, ranking the indicators on a relative scale according to pre-defined ranking criteria. The proposed indicators, which characterize conditions that influence the probability of an infrastructure break-down caused by a natural event, are defined as 1) Robustness and buffer capacity, 2) Level of protection, 3) Quality/Level of maintenance and renewal, 4) Adaptability and quality in operational procedures and 5) Transparency/complexity/degree of coupling. Further indicators describe the societal consequences of the infrastructure failure, such as Redundancy and/or substitution, Restoration effort/duration, Preparedness, early warning and emergency response and Dependencies and cascading effects. The aggregated risk estimate is a combination of the semi-quantitative vulnerability indicators, as well as quantitative estimates of the frequency of the natural hazard, the potential duration of the infrastructure malfunctioning (depending e.g. on the required restoration effort) and the number of users of the infrastructure. Case studies for two Norwegian municipalities are presented where risk posed by adverse weather and natural hazards to primary road, water supply and power network is assessed. The application examples show that the proposed model provides a useful tool for screening of potential undesirable events, contributing to a targeted reduction of the risk.

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