scholarly journals Recursive State and Parameter Estimation of COVID-19 Circulating Variants Dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Martins Silva ◽  
Argimiro Resende Secchi
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Parameter Estimations ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Efficient Detection ◽  
State Estimators ◽  
Evolution Dynamics ◽  
Restrictive Measures

Abstract COVID-19 pandemic response with non-pharmaceutical interventions is an intrinsic control problem. Governments balance social distancing policies to avoid overload on health system without major economic impact. A control strategy requires reliable predictions to be efficient on long-term. SARS-CoV-2 mutability, vaccination coverage and time-varying restrictive measures change virus evolution dynamics frequently. State and parameter estimations are an option do deal with these uncertainties. In this paper, a SIR-based model is proposed considering data available and feedback corrections over time. State and parameter estimations were done on state estimators with augmented states. Three observers were implemented: Constrained Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF), CEKF and Smoother (CEKF&S) and Moving Horizon Estimator (MHE). The parameters estimated therein are based on vaccine efficacy studies regarding transmissibility, severeness of disease and lethality. Social distancing is a measured disturbance calculated with Google mobility data. Six federative units from Brazil are used to evaluate proposed strategy: Amazonas, Mato Grosso do Sul, Rio Grande do Norte, Rio Grande do Sul, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. State and parameter estimations were realized from October 1 st 2020 to July 1 st 2021 during which Zeta and Gamma variants emerged. Results showed an efficient detection of circulating variants from proposed parameter estimation. In addition, it asserted dynamics related to virus mutations. Zeta mutations increase lethality between 19 and 45%, and increased transmissibility between 20 and 38%. Gamma mutations, on the other hand, increased lethality between 62 and 110% while increasing transmissibility between 52 and 107%. Furthermore, parameter estimation indicated existence and temporal change of subnotification on hospitalized and deceased individuals. Overall, dynamics estimated were within expectations and are applicable to control theory.

Marx, marxismo e dialética

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Batista Prado ◽  
Jadir Antunes ◽  
Pedro Leão da Costa Neto ◽  
Ricardo Pereira de Melo
Keyword(s):  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Mato Grosso Do Sul

A obra Marx Marxismo e Dialética nasceu do III Encontro Nacional dos GT’s Marx e Marxismo da Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação em Filosofia – ANPOF realizado em Campo Grande, na Universidade Federal de Mato Grosso do Sul, de 9 a 11 de setembro de 2019. Dois encontros do mesmo gênero o antecederam em Fortaleza, na Universidade Federal do Ceará, em 2015 e 2017. Consolida-se, assim, paulatinamente, uma tradição de encontros compartilhados que fortalecem ambos os GT’s que os promovem, a saber: o GT Marxismo e o GT Marx e a Tradição Dialética. O GT Marxismo foi criado em 2004, no XVI Encontro Nacional de Filosofia, realizado em Salvador e o GT Marx e a Tradição Dialética foi criado em 2006, no XVII Encontro Nacional de Filosofia, também realizado em Salvador. Ambos os GT’s, hoje congregam pesquisadores de diversas universidades espalhadas pelas regiões Sudeste, Centro-Oeste, Sul e Nordeste, dentre as quais se destacam a Universidade Estadual de Campinas – Unicamp, a Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro – UFRJ, a Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais – UFMG, a Universidade Federal de Uberlândia – UFU, a Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais – PUC Minas, a Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso do Sul – UFMS, a Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná – Unioeste, a Universidade Federal do Ceará – UFC, a Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte – UFRN, a Universidade Federal da Paraíba – UFPB, a Universidade Federal da Bahia – UFBA, etc. Dr. Mauro Castelo Branco de Moura: Prof. Titular do Departamento de Filosofia – UFBA.

scholarly journals Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pierre Nouvellet ◽  
Sangeeta Bhatia ◽  
Anne Cori ◽  
Kylie E. C. Ainslie ◽  
Marc Baguelin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Strict Control ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Proxy Measure ◽  
Lower Transmission ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27–77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49–91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12–48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial.

scholarly journals Mining Google and Apple mobility data: temporal anatomy for COVID-19 social distancing

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Corentin Cot ◽  
Giacomo Cacciapaglia ◽  
Francesco Sannino
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Strong Decrease ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Actual Measure ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Political Decisions ◽  
Mobility Reduction

AbstractWe employ the Google and Apple mobility data to identify, quantify and classify different degrees of social distancing and characterise their imprint on the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe and in the United States. We identify the period of enacted social distancing via Google and Apple data, independently from the political decisions. Our analysis allows us to classify different shades of social distancing measures for the first wave of the pandemic. We observe a strong decrease in the infection rate occurring two to five weeks after the onset of mobility reduction. A universal time scale emerges, after which social distancing shows its impact. We further provide an actual measure of the impact of social distancing for each region, showing that the effect amounts to a reduction by 20–40% in the infection rate in Europe and 30–70% in the US.

Ceratitis capitata. [Distribution map].

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Ceratitis Capitata ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
Distribution Map ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Mainland Portugal ◽  
South Wales ◽  
Southern Russia ◽  
St Helena ◽  
Distribution In Europe

Abstract A new distribution map is provided for Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann). Diptera: Tephritidae. Hosts: polyphagous. Information is given on the geographical distribution in Europe (Albania, Austria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, France, Corsica, Mainland France, Greece, Crete, Mainland Greece, Italy, Mainland Italy, Sardinia, Sicily, Malta, Montenegro, Portugal, Azores, Madeira, Mainland Portugal, Romania, Russia, Southern Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Balearic Islands, Canary Islands, Mainland Spain, Switzerland, Ukraine), Asia (China, Hubei, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, Yemen), Africa (Algeria, Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Comoros, Congo, Congo Democratic Republic, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Reunion, Sao Tome & Principe, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, South Africa, St Helena, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe), North America (Mexico, USA, California, Florida, Hawaii), Central America & Caribbean (Bermuda, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico), South America (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Alagoas, Amapa, Bahia, Ceara, Espirito Santo, Goias, Maranhao, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Para, Paraiba, Parana, Pernambuco, Piaui, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte, Rio Grande do Sul, Rondonia, Santa Catarina, Sao Paulo, Tocantins, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Galapagos Islands, Paraguay, Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela), Oceania (Australia, New South Wales, Northern Territory, South Australia, Victoria, Western Australia).

Disparity and Dynamics of Social Distancing Behaviors in Japan: An Investigation of mobile phone mobility data (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeyu Lyu ◽  
Hiroki Takikawa
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Government ◽  
Over Time

BACKGROUND The availability of large-scale and fine-grained aggregated mobility data has allowed researchers to observe the dynamic of social distancing behaviors at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Despite the increasing attentions paid to this research agenda, limited studies have focused on the demographic factors related to mobility and the dynamics of social distancing behaviors has not been fully investigated. OBJECTIVE This study aims to assist in the design and implementation of public health policies by exploring the social distancing behaviors among various demographic groups over time. METHODS We combined several data sources, including mobile tracking data and geographical statistics, to estimate visiting population of entertainment venues across demographic groups, which can be considered as the proxy of social distancing behaviors. Then, we employed time series analyze methods to investigate how voluntary and policy-induced social distancing behaviors shift over time across demographic groups. RESULTS Our findings demonstrate distinct patterns of social distancing behaviors and their dynamics across age groups. The population in the entertainment venues comprised mainly of individuals aged 20–40 years, while according to the dynamics of the mobility index and the policy-induced behavior, among the age groups, the extent of reduction of the frequency of visiting entertainment venues during the pandemic was generally the highest among younger individuals. Also, our results indicate the importance of implementing the social distancing policy promptly to limit the spread of the COVID-19 infection. However, it should be noticed that although the policy intervention during the second wave in Japan appeared to increase the awareness of the severity of the pandemic and concerns regarding COVID-19, its direct impact has been largely decreased could only last for a short time. CONCLUSIONS At the time we wrote this paper, in Japan, the number of daily confirmed cases was continuously increasing. Thus, this study provides a timely reference for decision makers about the current situation of policy-induced compliance behaviors. On the one hand, age-dependent disparity requires target mitigation strategies to increase the intention of elderly individuals to adopt mobility restriction behaviors. On the other hand, considering the decreasing impact of self-restriction recommendations, the government should employ policy interventions that limit the resurgence of cases, especially by imposing stronger, stricter social distancing interventions, as they are necessary to promote social distancing behaviors and mitigate the transmission of COVID-19. CLINICALTRIAL None

Meloidogyne incognita. [Distribution map].

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
South Carolina ◽  
Meloidogyne Incognita ◽  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
New Caledonia ◽  
Russian Far East ◽  
Far East ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
Distribution Map ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Brunei Darussalam

Abstract A new distribution map is provided for Meloidogyne incognita (Kofoid & White) Chitwood Nematoda: Meloidogynidae Polyphagous. Information is given on the geographical distribution in EUROPE, Albania, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Malta, Moldova, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Central Russia Russian Far East, Northern Russia, Southern Russia, Western Siberia, Spain, Canary, Islands Mainland Spain, Switzerland, UK, Ukraine, Yugoslavia (Fed. Rep.), ASIA, Armenia, Bangladesh, Brunei Darussalam, China, Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou, Hainan, Hebei, Heilongjiang, Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Nei, Menggu, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Shandong, Sichuan, Yunnan, Zhejiang, Republic of Georgia, India, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chandigarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Manipur, Meghalaya, Orissa, Punjab, Rajasthan, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Indonesia, Java, Sumatra, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Japan, Hokkaido, Honshu, Kyushu, Ryukyu Archipelago, Shikoku, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Korea, Republic, Lebanon, Malaysia, Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah, Sarawak, Mongolia, Myanmar, Nepal, Oman, Pakistan, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Syria, Taiwan, Tajikistan, Thailand, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Yemen, AFRICA, Algeria, Angola, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Congo, Democratic Republic, Cote d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Kenya, Liberia, Libya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Reunion Senegal, Seychelles, Somalia, South Africa, Sudan, Tanzania, Tunisia, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, NORTH AMERICA, Canada, Ontario, Quebec, Mexico, USA, Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico, St Lucia, St Vincent and Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, SOUTH AMERICA, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Bahia, Ceara, Espirito, Santo, Goias, Maranhao, Mato, Grosso, do Sul, Minas Gerais, Para, CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, Costa Rica, Cuba, Paraiba, Parana, Pernambuco, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa, Catarina, Sao Paulo, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, French, Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela, OCEANIA, American, Samoa, Australia, New South Wales, Northern Territory, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria, Western Australia, Fiji, Kiribati, New Caledonia, New Zealand, Niue, Norfolk Island, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu.

Spodoptera frugiperda. [Distribution map].

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
Rhode Island ◽  
Spodoptera Frugiperda ◽  
Prince Edward Island ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
Virgin Islands ◽  
Cayman Islands ◽  
Distribution Map ◽  
Mato Grosso

Abstract A new distribution map is provided for Spodoptera frugiperda (Smith). Lepidoptera: Noctuidae. Hosts: polyphagous but especially Poaceae. Information is given on the geographical distribution in Africa (Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Congo Democratic Republic, Ethiopia, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe), North America (Canada, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, Saskatchewan, Mexico, USA, Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming), Central America & Caribbean (Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Montserrat, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico, St Kitts-Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago, United States Virgin Islands), South America (Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Amapa, Amazonas, Bahia, Ceara, Espirito Santo, Goias, Maranhao, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Para, Paraiba, Parana, Pernambuco, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte, Rio Grande do Sul, Roraima, Santa Catarina, Sao Paulo, Tocantins, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela).

scholarly journals ELISA com MSP5 recombinante truncada para detecção de anticorpos contra Anaplasma marginale em bovinos

2007 ◽  
Vol 27 (7) ◽  
pp. 301-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elaine S.P. Melo ◽  
Flábio R. Araújo ◽  
Carlos A.N. Ramos ◽  
Cleber O. Soares ◽  
Grácia M.S. Rosinha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Escherichia Coli ◽  
Costa Rica ◽  
Rio Grande ◽  
Anaplasma Marginale ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
Mato Grosso ◽  
Mato Grosso Do Sul

Os objetivos deste estudo foram produzir e solubilizar a proteína MSP5 recombinante truncada de Anaplasma marginale, e avaliar seu desempenho em um ensaio de imunoadsorção enzimática indireto (ELISA) para detecção de anticorpos contra a riquétsia. O gene msp5, exceto a região N-terminal hidrofóbica, foi amplificado por PCR, clonado em plasmídeo pTrcHis-TOPO e expresso em Escherichia coli. A solubilização da proteína recombinante foi avaliada em diferentes pHs e concentrações de uréia. A sensibilidade e a especificidade do ensaio foram avaliados testando-se 66 soros de animais infectados experimentalmente com A. marginale e 96 soros negativos, com o estado de infecção destes animais confirmado por PCR. Um total de 1.666 amostras de soros bovino, provenientes do Brasil - Rio Grande do Sul (73), Mato Grosso do Sul (91), Pernambuco (86), Bahia (314) e Minas Gerais (267)-, Uruguai (32) e Costa Rica (803) foram testadas nos ELISAs com MSP5 truncada e com MSP1a recombinantes e a concordância entre os dois testes foi avaliada. O ELISA indireto com MSP5 truncada foi capaz de detectar animais infectados com 96,97% de sensibilidade e 100% de especificidade. Nos animais infectados experimentalmente, o ELISA detectou anticorpos do 12º até o último dia de observação (37º dia). Os ELISAs para MSP5 e MSP1a apresentaram concordância de 95,67%, com índice kappa de 0,81. Os resultados discordantes apresentaram uma diferença significativa (p <0,001). Anticorpos contra A. marginale foram detectados em animais de todas as regiões estudadas. O ELISA com MSP5 recombinante truncada apresentou bom desempenho na detecção de anticorpos contra A. marginale, com alta sensibilidade e especificidade, representando uma importante ferramenta para o diagnóstico da anaplasmose bovina em estudos epidemiológicos.

scholarly journals Fórum: saúde e povos indígenas no Brasil. Introdução

2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 851-854
Author(s):  
James R. Welch
Keyword(s):  
Rio Grande ◽  
Rio Grande Do Sul ◽  
Santa Catarina ◽  
Mato Grosso

O presente Fórum sobre Saúde e Povos Indígenas no Brasil explora os desafios contemporâneos para a saúde indígena e políticas de saúde no Brasil. O pequeno conjunto de artigos que se seguem são baseados em palestras, originalmente realizadas em painel do Grupo de Trabalho em Saúde Indígena, por ocasião do 10o Congresso Brasileiro de Saúde Coletiva no Rio Grande do Sul, pelos professores Carlos E. A. Coimbra Jr. (Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz), Marina Denise Cardoso (Universidade Federal de São Carlos) e Eliana E. Diehl (Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina), com Marcos A. Pellegrini (Universidade Federal de Roraima). Nesta breve Introdução apresento as contribuições ao Fórum, tomando como ponto de referência um exemplo local de iniquidade nos cuidados à saúde derivado da apresentação realizada no mesmo painel por Paulo F. Supretaprã, liderança comunitária indígena da aldeia Etênhiritipá no Mato Grosso.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document