scholarly journals Response of the Carbon Budget of Global Forest Ecosystems to Future Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongfei Xie ◽  
JUNFANG ZHAO ◽  
Jianyong Ma ◽  
Weixiong Yan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future

Abstract Background At present, global warming is an indisputable fact, and more and more attention has been paid to the impacts of climate warming on global ecological environments. Forests play increasing significant roles in regulating global carbon balance and mitigating climate change. Therefore, to understand the response mechanisms of the carbon budget of global forest ecosystems to future climate change, an improved version of the FORest ecosystem Carbon budget model for CHiNa (FORCCHN) and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were applied in this study.Results The global forest ecosystems will play a major role in the carbon sink under the future two climate change scenarios. In particular, the average carbon budget (namely the Net Ecosystem Productivity, NEP) of global forest ecosystems under RCP4.5 scenario was estimated to be 0.017 kg(C)·m− 2·yr− 1 from 2006 to 2100. The future carbon sink areas of global forest ecosystems will increase significantly. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the carbon sink areas of global forest ecosystems during 2026–2100 would be significantly higher than those in 2006–2025, with increases of 83.16–87.26% and 23.53–29.70%, respectively. The impacts of future climate change on NEP of global forest ecosystems will significantly vary between different regions. The NEP of forests will be enhanced in the northern hemisphere and significantly weakened in the southern hemisphere under the future two climate change scenarios. The carbon sink regions of global forests will be mainly distributed in the middle and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere. In particular, the forests'NEP in northeastern and central Asia, northern Europe and western North America will increase by 40%~80%. However, the NEP of forests will decrease by 20%~40% in the most regions of the southern hemisphere. In northern South America and central Africa, the forests' NEP will be reduced by more than 40%.Conclusions The global forest ecosystems will play a major role in the carbon sink under the future two climate change scenarios. However, the NEP of forests will be enhanced in the northern hemisphere and significantly weakened in the southern hemisphere. In the future, in some areas of southern hemisphere, where the forests' NEP was predicted to be reduced, some measures for improving forest carbon sink, such as strengthening forest tending, enforcing prohibiting deforestation laws and scientific forest management, and so on, should be implemented to ensure immediate mitigation and adaptation to climate change.

The City Pack - the co-production of an urban climate service providing local summaries of a city's future climate 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Fuller ◽  
Claire Scannell ◽  
Victoria Ramsey ◽  
Rebecca Parfitt ◽  
Nicola Golding
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
City Council ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
The Future ◽  
Climate Service ◽  
The City

<p>In 2018, the UN estimated that around 55% of the world’s population currently live within urban areas, with this value projected to rise to 60% by 2030 (United Nations, 2018). High levels of urbanisation, coupled with an increasing trend in extreme weather under future climate change scenarios, combine to create significant challenges to increasing urban resilience for the future (Masson et al., 2020).</p><p>Urban climate services provide tools to support decision making at a range of scales across the city, from day-to-day operations to informing urban design over longer timescales (Grimmond et al., 2015). Whilst urban climate services may be developed at a range of scales (Grimmond et al., 2020), this presentation looks at a prototype climate service which provides long-term climate change projections at the city-specific scale. The ‘City Pack’ was developed through a process of co-production, in which project development aims to move away from a one-way push of scientific information, to a two-way collaborative process of knowledge construction and sharing (Vincent et al., 2019).</p><p>This ‘City Pack’ service was co-developed by the Met Office and Bristol City Council following an assessment of the Council’s climate information needs. The City Pack comprises of three non-technical factsheets which explain how the climate of Bristol has changed and will continue to change into the 21<sup>st</sup> Century based on the UKCP climate projections. The City Pack’s primary aims are to raise awareness of how a cities climate may change in the future and to inform the development of city resilience whilst also providing a tool to be used by city stakeholders to raise awareness of climate change across the council. The audience for the City Pack therefore includes city officials, city planners and the general public. The Bristol City Pack has since provided an evidence base for the Bristol City Council Climate Change Risk Assessment and informed Bristol’s Climate Strategy. In addition, the City Pack has been used to engage with the council’s wider stakeholders and also as a communication and training tool. As such, whilst the co-production of a climate service may be time and resource intensive, the process may also be rewarded with the production of a highly tailored and user-relevant tool.</p><p>Following the success of the prototype ‘City Pack’ service for Bristol City Council, the Met Office are continuing to produce City Packs for additional cities across the UK, and also in China. The project is seeking to ascertain if services which are co-produced with and bespoke to one set of stakeholders, may provide an equally valuable service for other cities and if so, how can we make these services scalable.</p>

scholarly journals Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Chinese White Pines (Pinus subsect. Strobus) under Climate Changes and Implications for Their Conservation

Forests ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 996
Author(s):  
Lele Lin ◽  
Jian He ◽  
Lei Xie ◽  
Guofa Cui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Current Distribution ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
White Pine ◽  
Chinese White ◽  
The Future ◽  
Pine Species

White pines (Pinus subsect. Strobus) play important roles in forest ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. Species of this group are narrowly distributed or endangered in China. In this study, we used a species distribution model (SDM) to project and predict the distribution patterns of the 12 species of Chinese white pine under a variety of paleoclimatic and future climate change scenarios based on 39 high-resolution environmental variables and 1459 distribution records. We also computed the centroid shift, range expansion/contraction, and suitability change of the current distribution area to assess the potential risk to each species in the future. The modeling results revealed that the suitable habitat of each species is consistent with but slightly larger than its actual distribution range and that temperature, precipitation, and UV radiation are important determining factors for the distribution of different white pine species. The results indicate that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) greatly affected the current distribution of the Chinese white pine species. Additionally, it was predicted that under the future climate change scenarios, there will be a reduction in the area of habitats suitable for P. armandii, P. morrisonicola, and P. mastersiana. Furthermore, some of the current distribution sites of P. armandii, P. kwangtungensis, P. mastersiana, P. morrisonicola, P. sibirica, and P. wallichiana were predicted to become more unsuitable under these scenarios. These results indicate that some Chinese white pine species, such as P. armandii, P. morrisonicola, and P. mastersiana, may have a very high risk of population shrinkage in the future. Overall, this study provided relevant data for the long-term conservation (both in situ and ex situ) and sustainable management of Chinese white pine species.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra, Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 462
Author(s):  
Muhammad Hadi Saputra ◽  
Han Soo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Conservation Strategies ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Slope Aspect ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
North Sumatra

This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of Styrax sumatrana in North Sumatra by applying the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model with biophysical factors (elevation, slope, aspect, and soil), climatic factors (19 bioclimate data sets for 2050 and 2070), and anthropogenic factors (land use land cover (LULC) changes in 2050 and 2070). The future climate data retrieved and used are the output of four climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), namely, the CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, MIROC5, and MRI-CGCM3 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The MaxEnt modelling results showed the importance of the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the LULC variables. Styrax sumatrana rely on environmental conditions with air temperatures ranging from 13 to 19 °C. The potentially suitable land types for Styrax sumatrana are shrubs, gardens, and forests. The future predictions show that the suitable habitat for Styrax sumatrana is predicted to decrease to 3.87% in 2050 and to 3.54% in 2070 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the suitable area is predicted to decrease to 3.04% in 2050 and to 1.36% in 2070, respectively. The degradation of the suitable area is mainly due to increasing temperature and deforestation in future predictions. The modelling results illustrate that the suitable habitats of Styrax sumatrana are likely to be reduced under future climate change scenarios or lost in 2070 under the RCP8.5 scenario. The potential future extinction of this species should alert authorities to formulate conservation strategies. Results also demonstrated key variables that should be used for formulating ex situ conservation strategies.

scholarly journals Drought occurrence under future climate change scenarios in the Zard River basin, Iran

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedram Mahdavi ◽  
Hossein Ghorbanizadeh Kharazi ◽  
Hossein Eslami ◽  
Narges Zohrabi ◽  
Majid Razaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Global warming affected by human activities causes changes in the regime of rivers. Rivers are one of the most vital sources that supply fresh water. Therefore, management, planning, and proper use of rivers will be crucial for future climate change conditions. This study investigated the monitoring of hydrological drought in a future period to examine the impact of climate change on the discharging flow of the Zard River basin in Iran. Zard River is an important supplier of fresh and agricultural water in a vast area of Khuzestan province in Iran. A continuous rainfall-runoff model based on Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) algorithm was applied to simulate the discharge flow under 10 scenarios (obtained from LARS-WG.6 software) of future climate change. Then, the Stream-flow Drought Index (SDI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) were calculated for each climate change scenario for the future period (2041–2060). The results of the meteorological drought assessment showed that near normal and moderate droughts had higher proportions among other drought conditions. Moreover, the hydrological drought assessment showed the occurrence of two new droughts (severe and extreme) conditions for the future period (2041–2060) that has never happened in the past (1997–2016).

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos ◽  
Cesar Augusto Marchioro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature Dependent ◽  
Dependent Development ◽  
Degree Day ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

Climate, ticks and disease

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Disease Ecology ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
The World ◽  
Host Pathogen ◽  
The Future ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract This book is a collection of 77 expert opinions arranged in three sections. Section 1 on "Climate" sets the scene, including predictions of future climate change, how climate change affects ecosystems, and how to model projections of the spatial distribution of ticks and tick-borne infections under different climate change scenarios. Section 2 on "Ticks" focuses on ticks (although tick-borne pathogens creep in) and whether or not changes in climate affect the tick biosphere, from physiology to ecology. Section 3 on "Disease" focuses on the tick-host-pathogen biosphere, ranging from the triangle of tick-host-pathogen molecular interactions to disease ecology in various regions and ecosystems of the world. Each of these three sections ends with a synopsis that aims to give a brief overview of all the expert opinions within the section. The book concludes with Section 4 (Final Synopsis and Future Predictions). This synopsis attempts to summarize evidence provided by the experts of tangible impacts of climate change on ticks and tick-borne infections. In constructing their expert opinions, contributors give their views on what the future might hold. The final synopsis provides a snapshot of their expert thoughts on the future.

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