scholarly journals Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Tuberculosis in India over past three decades: A Joinpoint and Age-Period- Cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepak Dhamnetiya ◽  
Priyanka Patel ◽  
Ravi Prakash Jha ◽  
Neha Shri ◽  
Mayank Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Tuberculosis Incidence ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

Abstract BackgroundThe morbidity and mortality burden of tuberculosis has been a major public health challenge in India. Despite various commitments to end the global TB epidemic, India has the highest burden of TB and MDR-TB. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, it is imperative to outline the incidence and trend of tuberculosis in India. This study provides the trends in the burden of TB in India, along with age, period and cohort effect of TB. MethodsWe have extracted the TB incidence and mortality estimates from GBD database over the period 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression was used to determine the magnitude of time trends in incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis by calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI). We have analyzed the tuberculosis incidence and mortality trends in India to distinguish age, period and cohort effects by using age-period-cohort (APC) model.ResultsThere has been a decline in age standardized incidence rate in the period 1990-2019. Results from the APC table showed that the incidence and mortality due to tuberculosis in India decreased with the recent cohort. The period RRs of incidence had a downward trend in India in the period 1990-2019. Age standardized incidence and mortality rates of tuberculosis was found higher among males. The period RRs of incidence had a downward trend. Findings show that incidence and mortality were higher in older ages. The cohort effect on the incidence of tuberculosis was found higher among 1990-94 birth cohorts than in the later birth cohorts 2010-14. Wald test results demonstrated that the cohort and period RRs for both sexes and the net drift and local drifts for tuberculosis incidence and mortality were statistically significant.ConclusionHigher incidence and mortality in the older age groups is attributed to poor nutrition and socio-economic status. Improvement in India’s public health facility and strategic programs aimed at eliminating tuberculosis might be the reason behind declining RRs in India. The decline in the cohort RRs signifies the effective measures taken to reduce the burden of tuberculosis in the country.

scholarly journals Secular Trends in the Incidence of Migraine in China From 1990 to 2019: a Joinpoint and Age-period-cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yufeng Wang ◽  
Xueying Huang ◽  
Huan Ma ◽  
Suru Yue ◽  
Jie Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Disease Pattern ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Disease Study

Abstract Background Migraine is a common disorder of the nervous system in China, imposing heavy burdens on individuals and societies. Optimal healthcare planning requires understanding the magnitude and changing trend of migraine incidence in China. However, the secular trend of migraine incidence in China remains unclear. Methods Data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 in China from 1990 to 2019 to investigate changes in the incidence rate of migraine. The average annual percent change and relative risk were calculated using joinpoint regression and an age–period–cohort model, respectively. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates of migraine in China increased by 0.26% (95% CI: 0.22 to 0.31) and 0.23% (95% CI: 0.19 to 0.28) per year in males and females, respectively. The age effect exerted the most significant impact on the incidence of migraine. The period effect showed a slightly decreasing trend in the incidence of migraine. In terms of the cohort effect, people born after the 1960s presented a higher risk of migraine as compared with the total cohort, with the occurrence risk of migraine increasing with birth cohorts. Conclusion Migraine incidence shows an overall increasing trend in China, with a significant gender difference. An intensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of migraine could allow the early detection of persons with a high risk of developing migraine and promote the development of timely intervention measures to relieve this burden effectively.

scholarly journals Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates Among New York City Adults Ages 20–54 years during 1976–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kellie C Van Beck ◽  
John Jasek ◽  
Kristi Roods ◽  
Jennifer J Brown ◽  
Shannon M Farley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
New York State ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Registry Data ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

Abstract Colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence rates are rising in younger Americans and mortality rates are increasing among younger white Americans. We used New York State Cancer Registry data to examine New York City CRC incidence and mortality trends among adults ages 20–54 years by race from 1976 to 2015. Annual percent change (APC) was considered statistically significant at P less than .05 using a two-sided test. CRC incidence increased among those ages 20–49 years, yet blacks had the largest APC of 2.2% (1993–2015; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.4% to 3.1%) compared with 0.5% in whites (1976–2015; 95% CI = 0.2% to 0.7%). Among those aged 50–54 years, incidence increased among blacks by 0.8% annually (1976–2015; 95% CI = 0.4% to 1.1%), but not among whites. CRC mortality decreased among both age and race groups. These findings emphasize the value of local registry data to understand trends locally, the importance of timely screening, and the need for clinicians to consider CRC among all patients with compatible signs and symptoms.

scholarly journals Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Diabetes in China from 1990 to 2017: A Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxue Liu ◽  
Chuanhua Yu ◽  
Yongbo Wang ◽  
Yongyi Bi ◽  
Yu Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Joinpoint Regression Analysis ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Incidence And Mortality

Background: The prevalence of diabetes mellitus is rapidly increasing in China, but the secular trends in incidence and mortality remain unknown. This study aims to examine time trends from 1990 to 2017 and the net age, period, and cohort effects on diabetes incidence and mortality. Methods: Incidence and mortality rates of diabetes (1990–2017) were collected for each 5-year age group (from 5–9 to 80–84 age group) stratified by gender from the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study. The average annual percentage changes in incidence and mortality were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality were estimated by age-period-cohort analysis. Results: The joinpoint regression analysis showed that age-standardized incidence significantly rose by 0.92% (95% CI: 0.6%, 1.3%) in men and 0.69% in women (95% CI: 0.3%, 1.0%) from 1990 to 2017; age-standardized mortality rates rose by 0.78% (95% CI: 0.6%, 1.0%) in men and decreased by 0.12% (95% CI: −0.4%, 0.1%) in women. For age-specific rates, incidence increased in most age groups, with exception of 30–34, 60–64, 65–69 and 70–74 age groups in men and 25–29, 30–34, 35–39 and 70–74 age groups in women; mortality in men decreased in the younger age groups (from 20–24 to 45–49 age group) while increased in the older age groups (from 50–54 to 80–84 age group), and mortality in women decreased for all age groups with exception of the age group 75–79 and 80–84. The age effect on incidence showed no obvious changes with advancing age while mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality increased with advancing time period while the period trend on incidence began to decrease since 2007; cohort effect on incidence and mortality decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts while incidence showed no material changes from 1982–1986 to 2012–2016 birth cohort. Conclusions: Mortality decreased in younger age groups but increased in older age groups. Incidence increased in most age groups. The net age or period effect showed an unfavorable trend while the net cohort effect presented a favorable trend. Aging likely drives a continued increase in the mortality of diabetes. Timely population-level interventions aiming for obesity prevention, healthy diet and regular physical activity should be conducted, especially for men and earlier birth cohorts at high risk of diabetes.

scholarly journals Current and Future Burden of Prostate Cancer in Songkhla, Thailand: Analysis of Incidence and Mortality Trends From 1990 to 2030

2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian S. Alvarez ◽  
Shama Virani ◽  
Rafael Meza ◽  
Laura S. Rozek ◽  
Hutcha Sriplung ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Public Health Burden ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
Using Data

Purpose Prostate cancer is the second most common malignancy among men worldwide, and it poses a significant public health burden that has traditionally been limited mostly to developed countries. However, the burden of the disease is expected to increase, affecting developing countries, including Thailand. We undertook an analysis to investigate current and future trends of prostate cancer in the province of Songkhla, Thailand, using data from the Songkhla Cancer Registry from 1990 to 2013. Methods Joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine trends in age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer and provide estimated annual percent change (EAPC) with 95% CIs. Age-period-cohort (APC) models were used to assess the effect of age, calendar year, and birth cohort on incidence and mortality rates. Three different methods (Joinpoint, Nordpred, and APC) were used to project trends from 2013 to 2030. Results Eight hundred fifty-five cases of prostate cancer were diagnosed from 1990 to 2013 in Songkhla, Thailand. The incidence rates of prostate cancer significantly increased since 1990 at an EAPC of 4.8% (95% CI, 3.6% to 5.9%). Similarly, mortality rates increased at an EAPC of 5.3% (95% CI, 3.4% to 7.2%). The APC models suggest that birth cohort is the most important factor driving the increased incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer. Future incidence and mortality of prostate cancer are projected to continue to increase, doubling the rates observed in 2013 by 2030. Conclusion It is critical to allocate resources to provide care for the men who will be affected by this increase in prostate cancer incidence in Songkhla, Thailand, and to design context-appropriate interventions to prevent its increasing burden.

scholarly journals Surveillance of the Incidence and Mortality of Oral and Pharyngeal, Esophageal, and Lung Cancer in Nevada: Potential Implications of the Nevada Indoor Clean Air Act

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (15) ◽  
pp. 7966
Author(s):  
Kevin Foote ◽  
David Foote ◽  
Karl Kingsley
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Oral Cancer ◽  
Cancer Incidence ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Lung Cancer Incidence ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Smoking Restrictions ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Us

Reviews of national and state-specific cancer registries have revealed differences in rates of oral, esophageal, and lung cancer incidence and mortality that have implications for public health research and policy. Many significant associations between these types of cancers and major risk factors, such as cigarette usage, may be influenced by public health policy such as smoking restrictions and bans—including the Nevada Clean Indoor Air Act (NCIAA) of 2006 (and subsequent modification in 2011). Although evaluation of general and regional advances in public policy have been previously evaluated, no recent studies have focused specifically on the changes to the epidemiology of oral and pharyngeal, esophageal, and lung cancer incidence and mortality in Nevada. Methods: Cancer incidence and mortality rate data were obtained from the National Cancer Institute (NCI) Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences (DCCPS) Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program. Most recently available rate changes in cancer incidence and mortality for Nevada included the years 2012–2016 and are age-adjusted to the year 2000 standard US population. This analysis revealed that the overall rates of incidence and mortality from these types of cancer in Nevada differs from that observed in the overall US population. For example, although the incidence rate of oral cancer is decreasing in the US overall (0.9%), it is stable in Nevada (0.0%). However, the incidence and mortality rates from esophageal cancer are also decreasing in the US (−1.1%, −1.2%, respectively), and are declining more rapidly in Nevada (−1.5%, −1.9%, respectively). Similarly, the incidence and mortality rates from lung are cancer are declining in the US (−2.5%, −2.4%, respectively) and are also declining more rapidly in Nevada (−3.2%, −3.1%, respectively). Analysis of previous epidemiologic data from Nevada (1999–2003) revealed the highest annual percent change (APC) in oral cancer incidence in the US was observed in Nevada (+4.6%), which corresponded with the highest APC in oral cancer mortality (+4.6%). Subsequent studies regarding reduced rates of cigarette use due to smoking restrictions and bans have suggested that follow up studies may reveal changes in the incidence and mortality rates of oral and other related cancers. This study analysis revealed that oral cancer incidence rates are no longer increasing in Nevada and that mortality rates have started to decline, although not as rapidly as the overall national rates. However, rapid decreases in both the incidence and mortality from esophageal and lung cancer were observed in Nevada, which strongly suggest the corresponding changes in oral cancer may be part of a larger epidemiologic shift resulting from improved public health policies that include indoor smoking restrictions and bans.

scholarly journals Mortality rates for chronic lower respiratory diseases in Italy from 1979 to 2010: an age–period–cohort analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 00093-2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giancarlo Pesce
Keyword(s):  
Birth Cohort ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Occupational Exposures ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
World Health ◽  
Chronic Obstructive ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Time Period

Chronic lower respiratory diseases (CLRDs) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The objectives of this study were to estimate the trends in CLRD mortality in Italy, and the specific contributions of age, time period and birth cohort in driving these trends.Population and cause-of-death data in Italy between 1979 and 2010 were collected from the World Health Organization website. Age-specific mortality rates for CLRDs, and effects for age, time period and birth cohort on mortality trends were estimated using age–period–cohort models.Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and chronic bronchitis represent nearly 98% of the deaths from CLRDs. Despite the overall number of deaths have been stable (in men) or increasing (in women), the age-standardised rates have been steadily decreasing from 1979 to 2010, passing from 104.3 to 55.4 per 100 000 person-years in men and from 32.2 to 19.6 per 100 000 person-years in women. The average relative annual decrease was −3.6% in men and −2.7% in women. Since the end of the 1990s, the decreasing trend of CLRD mortality has started to level off, in particular in women. The decrease in CLRD mortality rates has been more accentuated in more recent cohorts and in younger age groups.Both birth cohort and time period significantly affected the CLRD mortality rates, suggesting that changes in the spread of risk factors (smoking habits, early-life and occupational exposures) across different birth cohorts, as well as in advanced in healthcare and medical practice, may have played a major role in secular changes in COPD mortality rates in Italy.

Follow-up of an age-period-cohort analysis on alcohol-related mortality trends in Sweden 1970–2015 with predictions to 2025

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 446-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Måns Rosén ◽  
Bengt Haglund
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Swedish Population ◽  
Higher Alcohol ◽  
Alcohol Policies ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Related Mortality

Background and aims: Several studies have indicated that birth cohorts are important in explaining trends in alcohol-related mortality. An earlier study from Sweden with data up to 2002 showed that birth cohorts that grew up under periods of more liberal alcohol policies had higher alcohol-related mortality than those cohorts growing up under more restrictive time periods. In spite of increasing alcohol consumption, predictions in 2002 also indicated lower alcohol-related mortality in the future. The aim of this study is to follow-up whether the effects of birth cohorts and the predictions made for Sweden still holds using data up to 2015. Method: The study comprised an age-period-cohort analysis and predictions based on population predictions from Statistics Sweden. The analysis was based on all alcohol-related deaths in the Swedish population between 1969 and 2015 for the cohorts born in the decades 1920 through 1990. Data were restricted to people 15–84 years of age. In total, the analysis covered 68,341 deaths and more than 284 million person-years. Results: Male and female cohorts born in the 1940s to 1950s exhibited the highest alcohol-related mortality, while those born in the 1970s continued to have the lowest alcohol-related mortality rates. The predicted mortality rates for males are still anticipated to decrease somewhat through 2025. Conclusions: The updated age-period-cohort analysis further supports the importance of focusing on restrictive alcohol policies targeting adolescents.

scholarly journals Trends in incidence and mortality of tuberculosis in India over past three decades: a joinpoint and age–period–cohort analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepak Dhamnetiya ◽  
Priyanka Patel ◽  
Ravi Prakash Jha ◽  
Neha Shri ◽  
Mayank Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Effect ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Control Programme ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Joinpoint Regression ◽  
Birth Cohorts ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Tuberculosis Control Programme ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
National Tuberculosis

Abstract Background Tuberculosis, as a communicable disease, is an ongoing global epidemic that accounts for high burden of global mortality and morbidity. Globally, with an estimated 10 million new cases and around 1.4 million deaths, TB has emerged as one of the top 10 causes of morbidity and mortality in 2019. Worst hit 8 countries account for two thirds of the new TB cases in 2019, with India leading the count. Despite India's engagement in various TB control activities since its first recognition through the resolution passed in the All-India Sanitary Conference in 1912 and launch of first National Tuberculosis Control Programme in 1962, it has remained a major public health challenge to overcome. To accelerate progress towards the goal of ending TB by 2025, 5 years ahead of the global SDG target, it is imperative to outline the incidence and mortality trends of tuberculosis in India. This study aims to provide deep insights into the recent trends of TB incidence and mortality in India from 1990 to 2019. Methods This is an observational study based on the most recent data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. We extracted numbers, age-specific and age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of Tuberculosis for the period 1990–2019 from the Global Health Data Exchange. The average annual percent change (AAPC) along with 95% Confidence Interval (CI) in incidence and mortality were derived by joinpoint regression analysis; the net age, period, and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality rates were estimated by using Age–Period–Cohort model. Results During the study period, age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of TB in India declines from 390.22 to 223.01 and from 121.72 to 36.11 per 100,000 population respectively. The Joinpoint regression analysis showed a significant decreasing pattern in incidence rates in India between 1990 and 2019 for both male and female; but larger decline was observed in case of females (AAPC: − 2.21; 95% CI: − 2.29 to − 2.12; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 1.63; 95% CI: − 1.71 to − 1.54; p < 0.001). Similar pattern was observed for mortality where the declining trend was sharper for females (AAPC: − 4.35; 95% CI: − 5.12 to − 3.57; p < 0.001) as compared to males (AAPC: − 3.88; 95% CI: − 4.63 to − 3.11; p < 0.001). For age-specific rates, incidence and mortality rates of TB decreased for both male and female across all ages during this period. The age effect showed that both incidence and mortality significantly increased with advancing age; period effect showed that both incidence and mortality decreased with advancing time period; cohort effect on TB incidence and mortality also decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts. Conclusion Mortality and Incidence of TB decreased across all age groups for both male and female over the period 1990–2019. The incidence as well as mortality was higher among males as compared to females. The net age effect showed an unfavourable trend while the net period effect and cohort effect presented a favourable trend. Aging was likely to drive a continued increase in the mortality of TB. Though the incidence and mortality of tuberculosis significantly decreased from 1990 to 2019, the annual rate of reduction is not sufficient enough to achieve the aim of India’s National Strategic plan 2017–2025. Approximately six decades since the launch of the National Tuberculosis Control Programme, TB still remains a major public health problem in India. Government needs to strengthen four strategic pillars “Detect–Treat–Prevent–Build” (DTPB) in order to achieve TB free India as envisaged in the National Tuberculosis Elimination Programme (2020).

scholarly journals Descriptive-epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer in Serbia

2008 ◽  
Vol 61 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 16-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natasa Maksimovic ◽  
Kyriakos Spanopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Lung Cancer ◽  
Direct Method ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Malignant Tumour ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Malignant Tumours ◽  
Mortality Trends ◽  
Incidence And Mortality ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Introduction. Lung cancer represents the most common malignant tumour among men, and appears more and more frequently among women in many countries worldwide. The aims of this descriptive epidemiological study were to evaluate the mortality trends of all malignant tumours and lung cancer in Central Serbia from 1990 to 1999, and to estimate the incidence, mortality and the basic demographic characteristics of lung cancer in Central Serbia in 1999. Material and methods. The source of data concerning cancer cases in 1999 was the Cancer Registry of Central Serbia, while data of the Republic Statistics Institute were used for the analysis of mortality trends for the period 1990-1999. All rates were standardized by the direct method, to the world standard population. Confidence intervals for mortality rates were assessed with 95% level of probability. Linear regression coefficient was determined by Fisher's test. Results. The mortality rates showed rising tendencies for both lung cancer (y=-1876.26+0.96x, p=0.028 for men; y=654.78U).33x, p-0.001 for women) and all malignant tumours (y=-4139.88+2.15x, p=0.163 for men; y=3649.68 + 1.88x, p=0.016 for women), with statistically significant increase being observed for all trends, except all malignant tumours among men. In the year 1999, lung cancer ranked first among men and third among women, with 29.2% and 10.3% of cancer mortality respectively. The age-specific mortality rates were much higher in men in all age groups. Mortality increased with age and the highest rates were found in the age group 70-74 for both sexes. The highest incidence and mortality rates were reported in Belgrade, Moravicki and Sumadijski district. .

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