A simple-to-use nomogram for the individualized prediction of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis among individuals with previous tuberculosis history

Abstract Background: So far, there are few studies that have investigated the risk of incident multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) among individuals with previous tuberculosis history (PTBH), let alone developed a nomogram so as to comprehensively estimate an individualized risk of incident MDR-TB in this population. The present study was to construct a comprehensive nomogram for providing simple and precise personalized prediction of incident MDR-TB risk among individuals with PTBH.Methods: A matched case−control study (1: 2 ratios) was performed between 2005 and 2018 in Hangzhou City, China. A multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression was used to evaluate independent predictors of incident MDR-TB in individuals with PTBH. A comprehensive nomogram was developed based on the multivariable Cox model.Results: Overall, 1, 836 participants were included in this study. We developed a simple-to-use nomogram for predicting the individualized risk of incident MDR-TB by using the parameters of age < 60 years, a history of direct contact, passive mode of TB case finding, human immunodeficiency virus infection, re-treated TB history, unsuccessful treatment, 3HRZES/6HRE, duration of pulmonary cavities, and duration of positive sputum culture in individuals with PTBH. The concordance index of this nomogram was 0.833 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.807-0.859] and 0.871 (95% CI 0.773-0.969) for the training and validation sets, respectively, which indicated adequate discriminatory power. The calibration curves for the risk of incident MDR-TB showed an optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation in the training and validation sets, respectively. The high sensitivity and specificity of nomogram was indicated by using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.Conclusions: We developed and validated a novel nomogram for predicting and preventing the risk of incident MDR-TB in individuals with PTBH. Through this clinic tool, TB control executives could more precisely monitor, estimate and intervene the risk of incident MDR-TB among individual PTB patients.

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Artificial Intelligence and Amikacin Exposures Predictive of Outcomes in Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Patients

Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy ◽

10.1128/aac.00962-16 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 60 (10) ◽

pp. 5928-5932 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Chawangwa Modongo ◽

Jotam G. Pasipanodya ◽

Beki T. Magazi ◽

Shashikant Srivastava ◽

Nicola M. Zetola ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Characteristic Curve ◽

Multidrug Resistant ◽

Sputum Culture ◽

Classification And Regression Tree ◽

Fiber System ◽

Sputum Culture Conversion ◽

Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Mdr Tb ◽

Culture Conversion

ABSTRACTAminoglycosides such as amikacin continue to be part of the backbone of treatment of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). We measured amikacin concentrations in 28 MDR-TB patients in Botswana receiving amikacin therapy together with oral levofloxacin, ethionamide, cycloserine, and pyrazinamide and calculated areas under the concentration-time curves from 0 to 24 h (AUC0–24). The patients were followed monthly for sputum culture conversion based on liquid cultures. The median duration of amikacin therapy was 184 (range, 28 to 866) days, at a median dose of 17.30 (range 11.11 to 19.23) mg/kg. Only 11 (39%) patients had sputum culture conversion during treatment; the rest failed. We utilized classification and regression tree analyses (CART) to examine all potential predictors of failure, including clinical and demographic features, comorbidities, and amikacin peak concentrations (Cmax), AUC0–24, and trough concentrations. The primary node for failure had two competing variables,Cmaxof <67 mg/liter and AUC0–24of <568.30 mg · h/L; weight of >41 kg was a secondary node with a score of 35% relative to the primary node. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the CART model was an R2= 0.90 on posttest. In patients weighing >41 kg, sputum conversion was 3/3 (100%) in those with an amikacinCmaxof ≥67 mg/liter versus 3/15 (20%) in those with aCmaxof <67 mg/liter (relative risk [RR] = 5.00; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.82 to 13.76). In all patients who had both amikacinCmaxand AUC0–24below the threshold, 7/7 (100%) failed, compared to 7/15 (47%) of those who had these parameters above threshold (RR = 2.14; 95% CI, 1.25 to 43.68). These amikacin dose-schedule patterns and exposures are virtually the same as those identified in the hollow-fiber system model.

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Challenges in morphological diagnosis of tuberculosis

Biomedical update ◽

10.52739/bio-up.1.2021.28-35 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 28-35

Author(s):

Petro V. Kuzyk ◽

Andriy Yu. Horoshchak ◽

Bogdan Ya. Serbin ◽

Rahaina Musa-Bador ◽

Uchenna Uchie-Okoro

Keyword(s):

Cause Of Death ◽

High Sensitivity ◽

Multidrug Resistant ◽

Molecular Diagnostic ◽

Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Solid Media ◽

Mdr Tb ◽

Morphological Diagnosis ◽

Chest X Ray

TB is the seventh leading cause of death worldwide and third leading cause of death among women in the 15–44 age group1. However, in 2010, the number of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) cases rose to 650,000 worldwide, with more than 150,000 deaths. All of the well-known widely available methods such as chest X-ray, culture in liquid and solid media should be accompanied with the modern and more accurate methods such as chest CT and molecular diagnostic tests which proved the necessity of usage with high sensitivity and accuracy, especially in smear-negative pulmonary TB patients and patients with the multi drug resistant forms.

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Faculty Opinions recommendation of Development and evaluation of a pilot nurse case management model to address multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and HIV in South Africa.

Faculty Opinions – Post-Publication Peer Review of the Biomedical Literature ◽

10.3410/f.725239549.793504303 ◽

2015 ◽

Author(s):

Rannakoe Lehloenya

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Case Management ◽

Multidrug Resistant ◽

Management Model ◽

Nurse Case Management ◽

Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Mdr Tb

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Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis (MDR-TB) Control Activities in Kano State, North West Nigeria: Progress so Far

TEXILA INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH ◽

10.21522/tijph.2013.se.19.02.art002 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 6-12

Author(s):

Musa K. Bawa

Keyword(s):

Multidrug Resistant ◽

North West ◽

Tb Control ◽

Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Mdr Tb

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The epidemiologic impact and cost-effectiveness of new tuberculosis vaccines on multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in India and China

BMC Medicine ◽

10.1186/s12916-021-01932-7 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Chathika K Weerasuriya ◽

Rebecca C Harris ◽

C Finn McQuaid ◽

Fiammetta Bozzani ◽

Yunzhou Ruan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cost Effectiveness ◽

Cost Effective ◽

Multidrug Resistant ◽

Second Line ◽

Second Line Therapy ◽

China And India ◽

Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Line Therapy ◽

Mdr Tb

Abstract Background Despite recent advances through the development pipeline, how novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines might affect rifampicin-resistant and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (RR/MDR-TB) is unknown. We investigated the epidemiologic impact, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of hypothetical novel prophylactic prevention of disease TB vaccines on RR/MDR-TB in China and India. Methods We constructed a deterministic, compartmental, age-, drug-resistance- and treatment history-stratified dynamic transmission model of tuberculosis. We introduced novel vaccines from 2027, with post- (PSI) or both pre- and post-infection (P&PI) efficacy, conferring 10 years of protection, with 50% efficacy. We measured vaccine cost-effectiveness over 2027–2050 as USD/DALY averted-against 1-times GDP/capita, and two healthcare opportunity cost-based (HCOC), thresholds. We carried out scenario analyses. Results By 2050, the P&PI vaccine reduced RR/MDR-TB incidence rate by 71% (UI: 69–72) and 72% (UI: 70–74), and the PSI vaccine by 31% (UI: 30–32) and 44% (UI: 42–47) in China and India, respectively. In India, we found both USD 10 P&PI and PSI vaccines cost-effective at the 1-times GDP and upper HCOC thresholds and P&PI vaccines cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold. In China, both vaccines were cost-effective at the 1-times GDP threshold. P&PI vaccine remained cost-effective at the lower HCOC threshold with 49% probability and PSI vaccines at the upper HCOC threshold with 21% probability. The P&PI vaccine was predicted to avert 0.9 million (UI: 0.8–1.1) and 1.1 million (UI: 0.9–1.4) second-line therapy regimens in China and India between 2027 and 2050, respectively. Conclusions Novel TB vaccination is likely to substantially reduce the future burden of RR/MDR-TB, while averting the need for second-line therapy. Vaccination may be cost-effective depending on vaccine characteristics and setting.

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PP581 Catastrophic Costs Of Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis: Estimation Based On The Cost Of Treatment In China

International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care ◽

10.1017/s0266462320002032 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 36 (S1) ◽

pp. 43-43

Author(s):

Lijun Shen ◽

Shangshang Gu ◽

Fan Zhang ◽

Zhao Liu ◽

Yuehua Liu

Keyword(s):

Market Price ◽

Multidrug Resistant ◽

Policy Support ◽

World Health ◽

Chinese Patients ◽

Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Mdr Tb ◽

Drug Affordability ◽

The Cost

IntroductionChina bears a considerably high burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). Second-line anti-TB drugs are urgently needed yet domestic MDR-TB drugs are expensive and lack policy support. Patients’ living conditions are closely related to the drug affordability. The national TB prevention programs should play a critical role. The purpose of this study is to measure the cost of treating MDR-TB patients under different treatment schemes and price sources. The results of this study are expected to inform the relevant drug protection policies and provide inputs for further cost-effectiveness analyses.MethodsBased on the treatment plan of China's Multidrug-Resistant Pulmonary Tuberculosis Clinical Path (2012 edition) and the World Health Organization (WHO) Drug-Resistant Tuberculosis Treatment Guide (2018 edition), the treatment costs of MDR-TB were measured under different scenarios. Catastrophic health expenditure was then calculated if the treatment cost exceeds 40 percent of the household's non-subsistence income. National, rural and disposable income per capita in 2018, were used to represent Chinese patients’ affordability.ResultsUnder varied treatment schemes and market price sources in China, the total costs for MDR-TB patients range from 19,401 to 126,703 CNY [2,853 to 18,633 USD] per person. Under current prices, all treatment schemes recommended by the WHO will incur catastrophic costs for Chinese MDR-TB patients. Significant differences were found between rural and urban areas as 52.8 percent of the treatment listed in the 2012 China Guideline would lead to catastrophic cost for rural patients but not urban ones.ConclusionsOur study concludes that the domestic drugs are more expensive than the international purchase price and the treatment of MDR-TB imposes substantial economic burden on patients, especially in the rural areas. The results of the study also indicate that it is urgent for the state to emphasize government responsibility and initiate centralized procurement for price negotiations to reduce the market price of MDR-TB drugs. The urban-rural gap should also be addressed in the design of future policies to ensure the drug affordability for all patients in need.

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Outcomes of Community-Based Systematic Screening of Household Contacts of Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis in Myanmar

Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease ◽

10.3390/tropicalmed5010002 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 2

Author(s):

Nang Thu Thu Kyaw ◽

Aung Sithu ◽

Srinath Satyanarayana ◽

Ajay M. V. Kumar ◽

Saw Thein ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Chest Radiography ◽

Multidrug Resistant ◽

Sputum Smear ◽

Community Based ◽

Household Contacts ◽

Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Symptom Screening ◽

Multidrug Resistant Tuberculosis ◽

Screening Algorithm ◽

Mdr Tb

Screening of household contacts of patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a crucial active TB case-finding intervention. Before 2016, this intervention had not been implemented in Myanmar, a country with a high MDR-TB burden. In 2016, a community-based screening of household contacts of MDR-TB patients using a systematic TB-screening algorithm (symptom screening and chest radiography followed by sputum smear microscopy and Xpert-MTB/RIF assays) was implemented in 33 townships in Myanmar. We assessed the implementation of this intervention, how well the screening algorithm was followed, and the yield of active TB. Data collected between April 2016 and March 2017 were analyzed using logistic and log-binomial regression. Of 620 household contacts of 210 MDR-TB patients enrolled for screening, 620 (100%) underwent TB symptom screening and 505 (81%) underwent chest radiography. Of 240 (39%) symptomatic household contacts, 71 (30%) were not further screened according to the algorithm. Children aged <15 years were less likely to follow the algorithm. Twenty-four contacts were diagnosed with active TB, including two rifampicin- resistant cases (yield of active TB = 3.9%, 95% CI: 2.3%–6.5%). The highest yield was found among children aged <5 years (10.0%, 95% CI: 3.6%–24.7%). Household contact screening should be strengthened, continued, and scaled up for all MDR-TB patients in Myanmar.

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