scholarly journals A novel nomogram to predict the overall survival in esthesinoeroblastoma

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijie Jiang ◽  
Tengjiao Lin ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Wenxiang Gao ◽  
Jie Deng ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Increasing evidence indicates that the pathology and the modified Kadish system have some influence on the prognosis of esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB). However, an accurate system to combine pathology with a modified Kadish system has not been established. Methods This study aimed to set up and evaluate a model to predict overall survival (OS) accurately in ENB, including clinical characteristics, treatment and pathological variables. We screened the information of patients with ENB between January 1, 1976, and December 30, 2016 from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program as a training cohort. The validation cohort consisted of patients with ENB at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center and The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University in the same period, and 87 patients were identified. The Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to assess significance of clinicopathological and demographic characteristics. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to examine univariate and multivariate analyses. The model coefficients were used to calculate the Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Prognostic factors with a p- value < 0.05 in multivariate analysis were included in the nomogram. The concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram. Results The c-index of training cohort and validation cohort are 0.737 (95% CI, 0.709 to 0.765) and 0.791 (95% CI, 0.767 to 0.815) respectively. The calibration curves revealed a good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation regarding the probability of 3-year and 5-year survival. We used a nomogram to calculate the 3-year and 5-year growth probability and stratified patients into three risk groups. Conclusions The nomogram provided the risk group information and identified mortality risk and can serve as a reference for designing a reasonable follow-up plan.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijie Jiang ◽  
Tengjiao Lin ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Wenxiang Gao ◽  
Jie Deng ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Increasing evidence indicates that the pathology and the modified Kadish system have some influence on the prognosis of esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB). However, an accurate system to combine pathology with a modified Kadish system has not been established. Methods: This study aimed to set up and evaluate a model to predict overall survival (OS) accurately in ENB, including clinical characteristics, treatment and pathological variables. We screened the information of patients with ENB between January 1, 1976, and December 30, 2016 from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program as a training cohort. The validation cohort consisted of patients with ENB at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center and The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University in the same period, and 87 patients were identified. The Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to assess significance of clinicopathological and demographic characteristics. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to examine univariate and multivariate analyses. The model coefficients were used to calculate the Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Prognostic factors with a p- value < 0.05 in multivariate analysis were included in the nomogram. The concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram. Results: The c-index of training cohort and validation cohort are 0.737 (95% CI, 0.709 to 0.765) and 0.791 (95% CI, 0.767 to 0.815) respectively. The calibration curves revealed a good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation regarding the probability of 3-year and 5-year survival. We used a nomogram to calculate the 3-year and 5-year growth probability and stratified patients into three risk groups. Conclusions: The nomogram provided the risk group information and identified mortality risk and can serve as a reference for designing a reasonable follow-up plan.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijie Jiang ◽  
Tengjiao Lin ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Wenxiang Gao ◽  
Jie Deng ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Increasing evidence indicates that the pathology and the modified Kadish system have some influence on the prognosis of esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB). However, an accurate system to combine pathology with a modified Kadish system has not been established. MethodsThis study aimed to set up and evaluate a model to predict overall survival (OS) accurately in ENB, including clinical characteristics, treatment and pathological variables. We screened the information of patients with ENB between January 1, 1976, and December 30, 2016 from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program as a training cohort. The validation cohort consisted of patients with ENB at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center and The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University in the same period, and 87 patients were included. The Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to assess significance of clinicopathological and demographic characteristics. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to examine univariate and multivariate analyses. The model coefficients were used to calculate the Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Prognostic factors with a p-value < 0.05 in multivariate analysis were included in the nomogram. The concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram.ResultsThe c-index of training cohort and validation cohort are 0.737 (95% CI, 0.709 to 0.765) and 0.791 (95% CI, 0.767 to 0.815) respectively. The calibration curves revealed a good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation regarding the probability of 3-year and 5-year survival. We used a nomogram to calculate the 3-year and 5-year growth probability and stratified patients into three risk groups.ConclusionsThe nomogram provided the risk group information and identified mortality risk and can serve as a reference for designing a reasonable follow-up plan.


BMC Cancer ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijie Jiang ◽  
Tengjiao Lin ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Wenxiang Gao ◽  
Jie Deng ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Increasing evidence indicates that the pathology and the modified Kadish system have some influence on the prognosis of esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB). However, an accurate system to combine pathology with a modified Kadish system has not been established. Methods This study aimed to set up and evaluate a model to predict overall survival (OS) accurately in ENB, including clinical characteristics, treatment and pathological variables. We screened the information of patients with ENB between January 1, 1976, and December 30, 2016 from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program as a training cohort. The validation cohort consisted of patients with ENB at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center and The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University in the same period, and 87 patients were included. The Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to assess significance of clinicopathological and demographic characteristics. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to examine univariate and multivariate analyses. The model coefficients were used to calculate the Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Prognostic factors with a p-value < 0.05 in multivariate analysis were included in the nomogram. The concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram. Results The c-index of training cohort and validation cohort are 0.737 (95% CI, 0.709 to 0.765) and 0.791 (95% CI, 0.767 to 0.815) respectively. The calibration curves revealed a good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation regarding the probability of 3-year and 5-year survival. We used a nomogram to calculate the 3-year and 5-year growth probability and stratified patients into three risk groups. Conclusions The nomogram provided the risk group information and identified mortality risk and can serve as a reference for designing a reasonable follow-up plan.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijie Jiang ◽  
Tengjiao Lin ◽  
Yu Zhang ◽  
Wenxiang Gao ◽  
Jie Deng ◽  
...  

Abstract BackgroundIncreasing evidence indicates that the pathology and the modified Kadish system have some influence on the prognosis of esthesioneuroblastoma (ENB). However, an accurate system to combine pathology with a modified Kadish system has not been established.MethodsThis study aimed to set up and evaluate a model to predict overall survival (OS) accurately in ENB, including clinical characteristics, treatment and pathological variables. We screened the information of patients with ENB between January 1, 1976, and December 30, 2012 from the National Cancer Institute Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program as a training cohort. The validation cohort consisted of patients with ENB at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center and The First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University in the same period, and 87 patients were identified. The Pearson’s chi-squared test was used to assess significance of clinicopathological and demographic characteristics. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to examine univariate and multivariate analyses. The model coefficients were used to calculate the Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Prognostic factors with a p-value < 0.05 in multivariate analysis were included in the nomogram. The concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram.ResultsThe c-index of training cohort and validation cohort are 0.737 (95% CI, 0.709 to 0.765) and 0.791 (95% CI, 0.767 to 0.815) respectively. The calibration curves revealed a good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual observation regarding the probability of 3-year and 5-year survival. We used a nomogram to calculate the 3-year and 5-year growth probability and stratified patients into three risk groups.ConclusionsThe nomogram provided the risk group information and identified mortality risk and can serve as a reference for designing a reasonable follow-up plan.# Co-first authors: Lijie Jiang and Tengjiao Lin contributed equally to this article.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 721-721
Author(s):  
Doug Baughman ◽  
Krishna Bilas Ghimire ◽  
Binay Kumar Shah

721 Background: Combination chemoradiotherapy is the standard of care for treatment of non-metastatic squamous cell carcinoma of the anus (SCCA). This population-based study evaluated disparities in receipt of radiotherapy (RT) and its effect on survival in patients with localized and regional SCCA in the United States. Methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 database was used to identify patients with localized and regional SCCA diagnosed between 1998 and 2008. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression to model the relationships between receipt of RT and age, sex, marital status, stage, and race. Relative survival rates were calculated and compared using two sample z-tests. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to find adjusted hazard ratios (HR). Results: A total of 3,971 patients with localized or regional SCCA as the only primary malignancy were included in the study, of which 3,278 (82.6%) received RT. After adjusting for covariates, those 65 years and older (adjusted OR 0.82, p=0.029) were less likely to receive RT. Females were more likely to receive RT compared to males (adjusted OR 1.54, p<0.001). We found no difference in receipt of RT by race. Comparisons of 1- and 5-year relative survival rates showed lower survival for blacks (p-value <0.01 at 1-year and <0.0001 at 5-years), those 65 years and older, and males. A 1-year survival disparity was found for those not receiving RT (p-value <0.0001 at 1-year), but no difference was observed at 5-years. A Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for all covariates showed greater hazard for blacks (adjusted HR 1.36, p=0.001), those not receiving RT (adjusted HR 1.23, p=0.03), patients 65 years or older, and males. Conclusions: This population based study identified older patients as less likely to receive RT and females as more likely to receive RT. Survival analysis identified blacks, males, older patients, and those not receiving RT as having lower rates of survival.


Blood ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 1392-1392
Author(s):  
Noha Soror ◽  
Hamid D. Ismail ◽  
Catherine Chung ◽  
Basem M. William

Abstract I ntroduction: Mycosis Fungoides (MF) is the most common subtype of cutaneous T-cell lymphomas. Prior Studies have identified Black race as a risk factor for earlier age at diagnosis, more advanced stages at time of diagnosis and poor prognosis in patients with MF. Data examining differences in racial disparities outcomes over time are limited. Objective: This retrospective analysis aims to examine if the racial disparities in survival outcomes of MF patients have improved over time. Subjects and Methods: Using the United States Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) 1988-2011 public use database, we examined survival patterns for patients with MF (with the code of 9700) between 1988 and 2011. Cases were divided into three cohorts based on the year of diagnosis; "1988 - 1995", "1996 - 2003", and "2004 - 2011". Univariable and multivariable analysis were conducted to assess for factors significantly associated with the overall survival. The nonparametric estimates of the survival distribution function, Kaplan and Meier survival curves, and Cox proportional hazards model were used to investigate the factors affecting the survival time. Results: From 1988 to 2011, a total of 2896 cases of MF were identified with a median follow-up of 60 months. The difference in the survival time between the years of diagnosis 1988-1995 and 2004-2011 is significant (p-value=0.05). The parameter estimate of the Cox proportional hazards model for the "1988-1995" and the "2004-2011" period as a reference is also significant (p-value = 0.024) and the hazard ratio (HR) is 1.407, which means that patients diagnosed in 1988-1995 were 1.4 times likely to die from the disease compared to the patients diagnosed in 2004-2011 (i.e. patients in 1988-1995 were more likely to not survive than in 2004-2011) (Table 1 and 2). There is no significant difference in the survival of the patients between "1996-2003" and "2004-2011" (p-value 0.998), Cox model estimate is not significant (p-value = 0.178), and the HR is 0.94 (Table 1 and 2). For the time period 1988-1995, the survival of Black patients was inferior to White (p= 0.0339), Asians (p=0.001), and other races (p=0.0011); Figure 2 and Table 3. For the time period 1996-2003, there was no difference in survival across races (p-value=0.7599); Figure 3 and Table 3. For the time period of 2004-2011, survival of Black patients was similar to White (p-value=1) but again inferior to Asian (p-value=0.05) and other races (p-value=0.09); Figure 4 and Table 3. Across the entire time period of 1998-2011, the survival of Black patients was inferior to White (Chi-square=6.59 and p-value=0.0084); Figure 5. The survival gap between Black and White patients seems to be obliterated in subsequent; "1996 - 2003" and "2004 - 2011" vs 1988-1995 (Figures 3 and 4) due to improvements in survival of Black patients over time (Figure 6) while the survival of White patients remained rather steady over time (Figure 7). Conclusions: Our study demonstrated that Black race was significantly correlated with poorer survival in patients with MF. The etiology of this poorer prognosis can be related to access to medical care, socioeconomic disparities, or possibly difference in disease biology and immune response. Despite the persistent pattern of lower survival across all time periods, the gap in survival between White and Black races seems to be narrowing overtime. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures William: Dova Pharmaceuticals: Research Funding; Incyte: Research Funding; Kyowa Kirin: Consultancy; Merck: Research Funding; Guidepoint Global: Consultancy.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shilong Wu ◽  
Mengyang Liu ◽  
Weixue Cui ◽  
Guilin Peng ◽  
Jianxing He

Abstract Background Thymoma is an uncommon intrathoracic malignant tumor and has a long natural history. It is uncertain whether the survival of thymoma patient is affected by prior cancer history. Finding out the impact of a prior cancer history on thymoma survival has important implications for both decision making and research. Method The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was queried for thymoma patients diagnosed between 1975 and 2015. Kaplan-Meier methods and Cox proportional hazards model were used to analyze overall survival across a variety of stages, age, and treatment methods with a prior cancer history or not. Results A total of 3604 patients with thymoma were identified including 507 (14.1%) with a prior cancer history. The 10-year survival rate of patients with a prior cancer history (53.8%) was worse than those without a prior cancer history (40.32%, 95%CI 35.24-45.33, P < 0.0001). However, adjusted analyses showed that the impact of a prior cancer history was heterogenous across age and treatment methods. In subset analyses, prior cancer history was associated with worse survival among patients who were treated with chemoradiotherapy (HR: 2.80, 95% CI: 1.51-5.20, P = 0.001) and age ≤ 65 years (HR: 1.33, 95%CI: 1.02-1.73, P = 0.036). Conclusions Prior cancer history provides an inferior overall survival for patients with thymoma. But it does not worsen the survival in some subgroups and these thymoma patients should not be excluded from clinical trials.


2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (6) ◽  
pp. 915-919
Author(s):  
Edvard Zhavrid ◽  
Pavel Demeshko ◽  
Nataliya Artemova ◽  
V. Sinayko

The outcomes of multimodality treatment of 227 glioblastoma (grade IV) patients were evaluated in relation to the postoperative chemoradiotherapy (ChRT) regimen. No statistically significant differences were found in groups with conventional ChRT (temozolomide 75 mg/m2 per os 1 hour before the radiation treatment during the whole course of radiotherapy, n=111) and modified ChRT (temozolomide 75 mg/m2 per os 5 days a week 1 hour before the radiation treatment in the first and last two weeks of radiotherapy, n=116), the median overall survival being 16 months and 16 months respectively (P=0,889). The Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that the postoperative ChRT regimen was not a prognostic factor affecting patient survival.


2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 5042-5042
Author(s):  
S. Patil ◽  
R. A. Figlin ◽  
T. E. Hutson ◽  
M. D. Michaelson ◽  
S. Négrier ◽  
...  

5042 Background: Sunitinib demonstrated superior progression-free survival (PFS; the primary endpoint) over interferon-alfa (IFN-α) as first-line mRCC therapy (NEJM 2007;356:115). Median overall survival (OS) with sunitinib compared to IFN-α was: 26.4 vs. 21.8 months (HR=0.821; P=0.051 by unstratified log-rank test; Proc ASCO 2008;26, May 20 suppl; abstr 5024). An analysis of prognostic factors for OS was performed on data from this trial. Methods: 750 treatment-naïve mRCC patients were randomized 1:1 to receive sunitinib or IFN-α. By Cox proportional hazards model, selected pretreatment variables were evaluated univariately and in a multivariate model for each treatment arm. Multivariate models for each treatment arm were based on a stepwise algorithm with a type I error of 0.25 for entry and 0.15 for elimination. Further elimination was applied to identify variables significant at P<0.05. Results: In multivariate analysis of sunitinib patients, factors associated with longer OS include: interval from diagnosis to treatment ≥1 yr, ECOG PS of 0, lower corrected calcium, absence of bone metastases, lower lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), and higher hemoglobin (Hgb) ( table ). For the IFN-α treatment arm, male gender, absence of bone or lymph node metastases, lower LDH, higher Hgb, lower corrected calcium, higher neutrophil count, and interval from diagnosis to treatment ≥1 yr were associated with longer OS. Conclusions: For patients in the sunitinib treatment arm, prognostic factors identified were similar to the factors previously identified in the MSKCC risk groups (J Clin Oncol 2002;20:289). Additional prognostic factors were identified for the IFN-α arm. Further studies are warranted to independently validate these findings as well as to identify tumor-specific prognostic factors. [Table: see text] [Table: see text]


2009 ◽  
Vol 27 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e15517-e15517
Author(s):  
A. E. Hendifar ◽  
D. Yang ◽  
S. Iqbal ◽  
H. Lenz ◽  
A. El-Khoueiry

e15517 Background: Recent reports suggest that estrogen mediated inhibition of IL-6 protects against the development of HCC and may explain the decreased risk of liver cancer in women. We investigated the relation-hip between gender, age, and survival for patients with localized HCC. Methods: We identified 11,097 patients with localized, histologically defined HCC, from 1988- 2003, using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) registry. Age at diagnosis, sex, ethnicity, and overall survival were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards model. The models were adjusted for treatment modality, tumor differentiation, tumor size, lymph node involvement, and number of lesions; they were stratified by year of diagnosis and SEER registry site. Results: 8,111 (73%) patients were men and 2,986 (27%) were women. In univariate and multivariate analyses, female gender, young age (< 55 yo), and Asian ethnicity were all associated with improved overall survival (p<0.001). In patients less than 55 yo, women had a superior OS and cancer specific survival (CSS) when compared to men (OS: 18 months vs. 9, CSS: 31 months vs. 14, p<0.001). Conversely, in patients older than 55, there were no gender differences (OS: 8 months vs. 8, CSS 13 months vs. 11, p = 0.08). Local therapies, including, ablation (HR = 0.47 [0.43–0.53]), hepatectomy (HR = 0.40 [0.36–0.44]), radiation (HR = 0.67 [0.57–0.78]) and transplantation (HR = 0.17 [0.15–0.20]) were also associated with improved survival. There were no interactions identified between gender and treatment use. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first report to highlight the superior outcome of premenopausal women with HCC compared to men. We postulate a potential role for estrogen in influencing the biology of HCC and the response to treatment. These observations are consistent with ones made in other gastrointestinal cancers and with reported preclinical data suggesting a protective role for estrogen. Further studies that confirm these observations and elucidate the biology of estrogen's influence on HCC are needed. [Table: see text] No significant financial relationships to disclose.


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