A practical nomogram predicting the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with lymph node metastasis: A population-based analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Zhang ◽  
Changcheng Tao ◽  
Jianxiong Wu ◽  
Weiqi Rong

Abstract Background: Lymph node (LN) metastasis is associated with poor survival outcomes in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients and because of the reported low probability of lymph node metastasis, research into the Anchorprognoses of such patients is difficult to conduct. In this study, we aimed to develop a nomogram model to predict the prognosis of HCC patients with lymph node metastasis. Methods: HCC patients diagnosed with LN metastasis from 2010 to 2015 were enrolled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate Cox regression and lasso regression were used to screen prognostic factors. Cox multiple-factor analysis was used to investigate the independent risk factors for survival. We developed a prognostic nomograms using these independent risk factors. The predictive performance of our nomogram model was evaluated according to the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. The net clinical benefit was assessed via decision curve analysis (DCA). Patients were divided into different risk groups according to the model. A survival curve was drawn using the Kaplan-Meier method and the difference was compared by the log-rank test. Results: There were 944 patients in the training cohort and 402 patients in the validation cohort. Grade, T stage, surgery to the liver, chemotherapy, radiation recode, AFP, fibrosis score, tumor size group, M stage were selected as independent prognostic factors, and we developed nomograms using these variables. The calibration curves for probability of survival showed good agreement between the prediction by our model and actual observation in both the training and validation groups. DCA indicated that the nomogram had positive net benefits. Conclusions: The nomogram can accurately predict the prognosis of HCC patients with lymph nodes metastasis and provide a reasonable basis for treatment. Keywords: Hepatocellular carcinoma, prognosis, lymph nodes metastasis, prediction model, nomogram

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qi Qi ◽  
Pan Xu ◽  
Cheng Zhang ◽  
Suping Guo ◽  
Xingzhi Huang ◽  
...  

BackgroundThis work explores the clinical significance of Delphian lymph nodes (DLN) in thyroid papillary carcinoma (PTC). At the same time, a nomogram is constructed based on clinical, pathological, and ultrasonic (US) features to evaluate the possibility of DLN metastasis (DLNM) in PTC patients. This is the first study to predict DLNM using US characteristics.MethodsA total of 485 patients, surgically diagnosed with PTC between February 2017 and June 2021, all of whom underwent thyroidectomy, were included in the study. Using the clinical, pathological, and US information of patients, the related factors of DLNM were retrospectively analyzed. The risk factors associated with DLNM were identified through univariate and multivariate analyses. According to clinical + pathology, clinical + US, and clinical + US + pathology, the predictive nomogram for DLNM was established and validated.ResultsOf the 485 patients with DLN, 98 (20.2%) exhibited DLNM. The DLNM positive group had higher positive rates of central lymph node metastasis (CLNM), lateral lymph node metastasis (LLNM), and T3b–T4b thyroid tumors than the negative rates. The number of CLNM and LLNM lymph nodes in the DLNM+ group was higher as compared to that in the DLNM- group. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the common independent risk factors of the three prediction models were male, bilaterality, and located in the isthmus. Age ≥45 years, located in the lower pole, and nodural goiter were protective factors. In addition, the independent risk factors were classified as follows: (I) P-extrathyroidal extension (ETE) and CLNM based on clinical + pathological characteristics; (II) US-ETE and US-CLNM based on clinical + US characteristics; and (III) US-ETE and CLNM based on clinical +US + pathological features. Better diagnostic efficacy was reported with clinical + pathology + US diagnostic model than that of clinical + pathology diagnostic model (AUC 0.872 vs. 0.821, p = 0.039). However, there was no significant difference between clinical + pathology + US diagnostic model and clinical + US diagnostic model (AUC 0.872 vs. 0.821, p = 0.724).ConclusionsThis study found that DLNM may be a sign that PTC is more invasive and has extensive lymph node metastasis. By exploring the clinical, pathology, and US characteristics of PTC progression to DLNM, three prediction nomograms, established according to different combinations of features, can be used in different situations to evaluate the transfer risk of DLN.


Author(s):  
Xiuli Zheng ◽  
Mingli Wu ◽  
Limian Er ◽  
Huiyan Deng ◽  
Gongning Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose The detection rate of colorectal neuroendocrine tumours (CR-NETs) is increasing, but their treatment is still controversial. Lymph node metastasis is an important reference index for the selection of treatment. The aim of our study was to investigate the factors associated with lymph node metastasis and prognosis of CR-NETs. Methods The case characteristics of patients with colorectal neuroendocrine tumours from January 2011 to December 2020 were retrospectively analysed, including age, gender, tumour size, tumour location, lymph node metastasis, pathological grade and follow-up. Results A total of 195 cases of CR-NETs were included in this study. When 15 mm was used as the cut-off value, the sensitivity, specificity and area under the curve (AUC) of lymph node metastases were 95.9%, 95.2% and 0.986, respectively. Multivariate analysis suggested that tumour size ≥ 15 mm (OR: 30.517, 95% CI: 1.250 ~ 744.996, p = 0.036) and lymphovascular invasion (OR: 42.796, 95% CI: 2.882 ~ 635.571, p = 0.006) were independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis. Age ≥ 56 (HR: 7.434, 95% CI: 1.334 ~ 41.443, p = 0.022) and distant metastasis (HR: 24.487, 95% CI: 5.357 ~ 111.940, p < 0.001) were independent prognostic factors in multivariable analyses. Conclusions When the size of a CR-NET is ≥ 15 mm, the risk of lymph node metastasis is higher, and it is recommended to choose the surgical method carefully. Tumour size and lymphovascular invasion were independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis. Age ≥ 56 and distant metastasis were independent prognostic factors.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kai Zhang ◽  
Changcheng Tao ◽  
Jianxiong Wu ◽  
Weiqi Rong

Abstract Background: The presence of lymph node metastases is related to poor survival outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma patients and because of the reported low probability of lymph node metastasis, research into the prognoses of such patients is difficult to conduct. In this study, we aimed to develop a nomogram model to predict the prognosis of HCC patients with lymph node metastasis and provided a reasonable basis for the choice of follow-up treatment.Methods: HCC patients diagnosed with LN metastasis from 2010 to 2015 were enrolled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate Cox regression and lasso regression were used to screen prognostic factors. Cox multiple-factor analysis was employed to investigate the independent prognostic factors for survival. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive performance of our model. The clinical benefit was assessed via decision curve analysis (DCA). The survival was analyzed using Kaplan-Meier method and the differences among survival curves were compared by the log-rank test.Results: Patients were randomized into the training group (944 patients) and the validation group (402 patients) in a 70:30 ratio. Grade, T stage, surgery to the liver, chemotherapy, radiation recode, AFP, fibrosis score, tumor size group, M stage were selected as independent prognostic factors, and we developed nomograms using these variables. The c-indices of the training and validation groups were 0.70 and 0.73, respectively. The calibration curves for probability of survival showed good agreement. The DCA indicated that the nomogram had positive net benefits. Patients were divided into two risk groups according to our model, survival curves were drawn, and the log-rank test was performed, the p-value of which was <0.001.Conclusions: The nomogram can accurately predict the prognosis of HCC patients with lymph nodes metastasis and provide a reasonable basis for treatment.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi Zheng ◽  
Haiqiao Zhang ◽  
Rui Xu ◽  
Jie Yin ◽  
Jun Cai ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Adenocarcinoma of esophagogastric junction (AEG) has a high incidence, while the extent of lymph node dissection (LND) and prognosis are still controversial. The present study aimed to explore the risk factors of lymph node metastasis (LNM) and prognosis in Siewert II/III AEG patients. Methods A total of 134 patients who underwent surgical operation between July 2013 and December 2019 at the Beijing Friendship Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. The patients were followed up until January 2020. The data were analyzed using logistic regression. Survival analyses were performed using Cox regression. Results Multivariate analysis revealed that the parameters infiltration depth (OR=4.341, 95%CI: 2.498-7.545, P=0.000), gross type (OR=3.626, 95% CI: 1.425-9.228, P=0.007) and intravascular cancer embolus (OR=2.888, 95%CI: 1.106-7.544, P=0.030) correlated with LNM. For all patients, the lymph nodes No. 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 11 indicated higher lymph node metastatic rate in the abdominal cavity. However, No.5 and No. 6 indicated different tendency, which was higher in Siewert III AEG and lower in Siewert II AEG patients. Mediastinal LNM of Siewert II AEG mainly occurred in No. 110 and No. 111 cases corresponding to 7.1 and 3%, respectively, compared with those noted in Siewert III AEG patients. The 3-year overall survival analysis revealed that LNM ( P= 0.046) and chemotherapy ( P= 0.007) exhibited significant differences. Conclusion The infiltration depth, gross type and intravascular cancer embolus were independent risk factors of LNM. For Siewert II AEG patients, it is reasonable to remove both celiac and mediastinal lymph nodes. This was noted notably for No.1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 11, 110 and No.111. For No.5 and No.6 lymph nodes dissection was not required. For Siewert III AEG patients, mediastinal LND was not required. However, it was necessary to perform pyloric lymphadenectomy, which was performed for No.5 and No.6 lymph nodes. In addition, patients with LNM exhibited worse long-term prognosis. The data indicated that perioperative chemotherapy could improve the prognosis of AEG patients.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxiao Wang ◽  
Cong Li ◽  
Mengjie Fang ◽  
Liwen Zhang ◽  
Lianzhen Zhong ◽  
...  

Abstract Background:This study aimed to evaluate the value of radiomic nomogram in predicting lymph node metastasis in T1-2 gastric cancer according to the No. 3 station lymph nodes.Methods:A total of 159 T1-2 gastric cancer (GC) patients who had undergone surgery with lymphadenectomy between March 2012 and November 2017 were retrospectively collected and divided into a primary cohort (n = 80) and a validation cohort (n = 79). Radiomic features were extracted from both tumor region and No. 3 station lymph nodes (LN) based on computed tomography (CT) images per patient. Then, key features were selected using minimum redundancy maximum relevance algorithm and fed into two radiomic signatures, respectively. Meanwhile, the predictive performance of clinical risk factors was studied. Finally, a nomogram was built by merging radiomic signatures and clinical risk factors and evaluated by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) as well as decision curve.Results: Two radiomic signatures, reflecting phenotypes of the tumor and LN respectively, were significantly associated with LN metastasis. A nomogram incorporating two radiomic signatures and CT-reported LN metastasis status showed good discrimination of LN metastasis in both the primary cohort (AUC: 0.915; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.832-0.998) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.908; 95%CI: 0.814-1.000). The decision curve also indicated its potential clinical usefulness.Conclusions:The nomogram received favorable predictive accuracy in predicting No.3 station LN metastasis in T1-2 GC, and could assist the choice of therapy.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhao Hongcan ◽  
Yang Hongjian ◽  
Zhang Xiping

Abstract Background: To analyze and screen the miRNAs associated with lymph node metastasis of breast cancer (BC), and to explore the roles of these miRNAs in the proliferation, invasion and prognosis of BC. Methods: MicroRNAs associated with lymph node metastasis in Her-2 positive BC was screened by TCGA database. The qRT-PCR was used to verify theses 5 miRNAs in 30 cases of Her-2 positive BC with lymph node metastasis of different degree. The tumor tissue samples were divided into non-lymph node metastasis group, ≤ 3 lymph node metastasis group and > 3 lymph node metastasis group. In addition, 10 cases of paracancerous tissues were considered as paracancerous control group. Pearson correlation analysis was used to analysis the relationship of 5 miRNAs and MALAT1 with Her-2 positive BC patients' clinicopathological characteristics and prognosis. CCK8 and Transwell experiments were used to detect the effects of miR-143 and miR-455 on the proliferation and invasion of Her-2 positive BC cells (MDA-MB-453). Results: Five kinds of miRNA (miR-143, miR-196a, miR-455, miR-9 and miR-92a) related with Her-2 positive BC with lymph node metastasis were screened by TCGA database. The detecting results of qRT-PCR showed that the levels of miR-143, miR-196a, miR-9 and MALAT1 increased with the increased number of lymph nodes. The expression level of miR-143 in the group of ≤ 3 lymph nodes metastasis and > 3 lymph nodes metastasis was significantly higher than that in the group of non-lymph nodes metastasis (P<0.001), and that in the group of > 3 lymph nodes metastasis was significantly higher than that in the group of ≤ 3 lymph nodes metastasis (P<0.001). The expression level of miR-196a in the group of ≤ 3 lymph nodes metastasis and > 3 lymph nodes metastasis was significantly higher than that in the group of non-lymph nodes metastasis (P<0.001), and that in the group of > 3 lymph nodes metastasis was significantly higher than that in the group of ≤ 3 lymph nodes metastasis (P<0.001). The expression level of miR-455 in the group of ≤ 3 lymph nodes metastasis and > 3 lymph nodes metastasis was significantly lower than that in the group of non-lymph nodes metastasis (P<0.001), and that in the group of > 3 lymph nodes metastasis was significantly lower than that in the group of ≤ 3 lymph nodes metastasis (P<0.001). The expression level of MALAT1 in the group of ≤ 3 lymph nodes metastasis and > 3 lymph nodes metastasis was significantly higher than that in the group of non-lymph nodes metastasis (P<0.001), and that in the group of > 3 lymph nodes metastasis was significantly higher than that in the group of ≤ 3 lymph nodes metastasis (P<0.01). Pearson correlation analysis showed that the expression levels of miR-455-5p, miR-196a-5p and MALAT1 were negatively correlated, positively correlated and positively correlated with the pathological stages of Her-2 positive BC, respectively. The results of survival analysis showed that RFS of patients with high expression of miR-196a, miR-92a and MALAT1 was significantly lower than that of patients with low expression (P<0.05), and OS and RFS of patients with high expression of miR-9 were significantly lower than those of patients with low expression, while OS and RFS of patients with high expression of miR-455 were significantly higher than those of patients with low expression (P<0.05). Cytological experiments showed that up regulation of miR-455 significantly inhibited the proliferation and invasion of BC cells, while down regulation of miR-143 significantly inhibited the proliferation and invasion of BC cells and the expression of MALAT1 (P<0.05). Conclusion: High expression of miR-143, miR-9, miR-196a, MALAT1 and low expression of miR-455 are related to the degree of lymph node metastasis of Her-2-positive BC patients, indicating poor prognosis. Down-regulation of miR-455 and up-regulation of miR-143 and MALAT1 can promote the cell proliferation and invasion of Her-2-positive BC.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangjian Zheng ◽  
Xiaodong Chen ◽  
Min Li ◽  
Chunmeng Li ◽  
Xian Shen

Abstract Background: Surgery combined with chemo-radiotherapy is a recognized model for the treatment of gastric and colon cancers. Lymph node metastasis determines the patient's surgical or comprehensive treatment plan. This analytical study aims to compare preoperative prediction scores to better predict lymph node metastasis in gastric and colon cancer patients.Methods: This study comprised 768 patients, which included 312 patients with gastric cancer and 462 with colon cancer. Preoperative clinical tumor characteristics, serum markers, and immune indices were evaluated using single-factor analysis. Logistic analysis was designed to recognize independent predictors of lymph node metastasis in these patients. The independent risk factors were integrated into preoperative prediction scores, which were accurately assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.Results: Results showed that serum markers (CA125, hemoglobin, albumin), immune indices (S100, CD31, d2–40), and tumor characteristics (pathological type, size) were independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis in patients with gastric and colon cancer. The preoperative prediction scores reliably predicted lymph node metastasis in gastric and colon cancer patients with a higher area under the ROC curve (0.901). The area was 0.923 and 0.870 in gastric cancer and colon cancer, respectively. Based on the ROC curve, the ideal cutoff value of preoperative prediction scores to predict lymph node metastasis was established to be 287. Conclusion: The preoperative prediction scores is a useful indicator that can be applied to predict lymph node metastasis in gastric and colon cancer patients.


2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 26-26
Author(s):  
Jun Liu ◽  
Xiaolong Fu ◽  
Hongxuan Li ◽  
Yan Cheng ◽  
Zhigang Li

Abstract Background Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) can be used as a less invasive treatment option for early esophageal cancer. But how to prevent lymph node metastasis is essential in these patients. This study aimed to analyze prevalence of lymph nodes metastasis for T1b thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma(TESCC) patients treated in Shanghai Chest Hospital(SCH) and to propose a clinical target volume (CTV) for additional radiotherapy Clinical Target Volume design following endoscopic submucosal dissection(ESD) in these patients. Methods From 2012 to 2017, consecutive patients with T1b TESCC patients who underwent complete resection in SCH were identified. The prevalence of lymph-node metastasis were assessed and evaluated whether these metastasis areas would be encompassed by our proposed CTV. We proposed lymph-node stations (JEOG) 101, 104, 105, 106, 107 for upper TESCC, lymph-node stations 106, 107, 108, 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10 for middle TESCC, and lymph-node stations110, 112, 1, 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 10 for lower TESCC. Results There were 240 patients (80.4% male) who met the inclusion criteria, with a mean age of 62 ± 7 years. Of the total, 27.1%(65/240) patients presented with lymph nodes metastasis. Single lymph-node and single station lymph-node metastasis among positive nodes patients were 63.1%(41/65) and 70.8%(46/65), respectively.Tumor length exceeding 20mm and poor tumor differentiation but not age, gender, tumor position and tumor thrombus were independently associated with the risk of nodal disease. Among positive nodes patients, 89.2% (58/65) lymph-node metastasis for T1b TESCC patients could be covered by proposed CTV. Conclusion Prevalence of lymph node metastasis is high in patients with T1b TESCC. It seemed additional radiotherapy after ESD for those patients with high risk factors is needed to prevent lymph node metastasis. Majority positive nodes area could be covered by our proposed CTV. However, the value of radiotherapy and the proposed CTV should be investigated in further prospective studies. Disclosure All authors have declared no conflicts of interest.


2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e18005-e18005
Author(s):  
Ping Jiang ◽  
Jing Cai ◽  
Xiaoqi He ◽  
Hongbo Wang ◽  
Weihong Dong ◽  
...  

e18005 Background: Evaluation the distribution of nodal metastases in the stage IB1 cervical cancer and the risk factors associated with pelvic lymph node metastasis (LNM) at each anatomic location. Methods: 728 patients with stage IB1 cervical cancer who underwent radical hysterectomies and systemic pelvic lymphadenectomies from January 2008 to December 2017 were retrospectively studied. All removed pelvic lymph nodes were pathologically examined, and the risk factors for LNM at the obturator, internal iliac, external iliac, and common iliac regions were evaluated by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Results: 20,134 lymph nodes were analysed with the average number of 27.80 (± SD 9.43) lymph nodes per patient. Nodal metastases were present in 266 (14.6%) patients. The obturator was the most common site for nodal metastasis (42.5%) followed by the internal iliac nodes (20.3%) and the external iliac nodes (19.9%), while the common iliac (9.8%) and parametrial (7.5%) nodes were the least likely to be involved. Tumor size more than 2 cm, histologically proven lymphovascular space involvement (LVSI) and parametrial invasion correlated independently significantly with the higher risk of the lymphatic metastasis. Obesity (BMI≥25) was independently significantly negatively correlated with the risk of lymphatic metastases. All the positive common iliac nodes were found in patients with tumors greater than 2 cm. The multivariate analysis showed that tumor size greater than 3 cm was associated with a 16.6-fold increase in the risk for common iliac LNM. Interestingly, tumor size was not an independent risk factor for pelvic LNM in the lower regions, i.e., the obturator, internal iliac and external iliac areas, where LVSI was the most significant predictor for LNM. In addition, parametrial invasion was related to external and internal iliac LNM; deep stromal invasion and age less than 50 years were associated with obturator LNM. Conclusions: The incidence of lymph node metastasis in patients with stage IB1 cervical cancer is low but prognostically relevant. The data offer the opportunity for tailored individual treatment in selected patients with small tumors and obesity.


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