scholarly journals Worldwide inverse correlation between Bacille Calmette-Guérin immunization and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willis X. Li
Keyword(s):  
Confounding Factor ◽  
Inverse Correlation ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Capita Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has spread to all countries in the world after more than six months since it was first reported in late 2019, and different countries have been impacted differently. Correlation analysis between COVID-19 death numbers and different demographic and socioeconomic factors for all world countries (n=210) as of June 1, 2020, reveals that COVID-19 deaths per million population in a country significantly correlates with the country’s median age (r=0.48, p=4.8e-4) and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (r=0.55, p=4.14e-5), and inversely correlates with the country’s Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination rate (r=–0.63, p=9.9e-7). COVID-19 death is found not significantly associated, however, with a country’s policy stringency index, population density, extreme poverty rate, hospital beds availability per thousand people, and diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP3) immunization. Old age is likely a confounding factor for the correlation between COVID-19 and per capita GDP (r=0.66, p=2.3e-7). To control for possible confounding effects of age, countries with similar median age were grouped and analyzed. The inverse correlation between BCG vaccination rates and COVID-19 case (r=–0.338, p=0.0082) and death (r=–0.411, p=0.0011) remained significant among the top 61 countries with highest median age. The current study suggests that BCG might be protective against SARS-CoV-2 infection.

scholarly journals Worldwide inverse correlation between Bacille Calmette-Guérin immunization and COVID-19 mortality

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Willis X. Li
Keyword(s):  
Inverse Correlation ◽  
Poverty Rate ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Using Data

Abstract The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread to all countries in the world after more than half a year since it was first reported in late 2019, and different countries have been impacted differently. Multivariate statistical analyses were used to evaluate COVID-19 deaths and cases relative to nine other demographic and socioeconomic factors in all countries and regions of the world using data as of August 1, 2020. The factors analyzed in the study include a country’s total COVID-19 deaths and cases per million population, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), population density, virus tests per million population, median age, government response stringency index, hospital beds availability per thousand population, extreme poverty rate, Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination rate, and diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP3) immunization rate. The study reveals that COVID-19 deaths per million population in a country most significantly correlates, inversely, with the country’s BCG vaccination rate, and also significantly correlates a country’s per capita GDP and median age, while COVID-19 cases per million population significantly correlate with per capita GDP and tests per thousand population. This study contributes to a growing body of evidence supporting the notion that BCG vaccination may be protective against COVID-19 mortality.

Explore the Possible Impact of BCG Vaccination Policy on the Morbidity, Mortality, and Recovery Rates due to COVID-19 Infection. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue-Cune Chang
Keyword(s):  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The World ◽  
New Form ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Disease Specific

BACKGROUND The Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is the new form of an acute infectious respiratory disease and has quickly spread over most continents in the world. Recently, it has been shown that Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) might protect against COVID-19. This study aims to investigate the possible correlation between BCG vaccination and morbidity/mortality/recovery rate associated with COVID-19 infection. OBJECTIVE Our findings confirm that the BCG vaccination might protect against COVID-19 virus infection. METHODS Data of COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, recoveries, and population were obtained from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Accessed on 12 June, 2020). To have meaningful comparisons among countries’ mortality and recovery rates, we only choose those countries with COVID-19 infected cases at least 200. The Poisson regression and logistic regression were used to explore the relationship between BCG vaccination and morbidity, mortality and recovery rates. RESULTS Among those 158 countries with at least 200 COVID-19 infected cases, there were 141 countries with BCG vaccination information available. The adjusted rates ratio of COVID-19 confirmed cases for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination was 0.339 (with 95% CI= (0.338,0.340)). Moreover, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of death and recovery after coronavirus infected for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination were 0.258 (with 95% CI= (0.254,0.261)) and 2.151 (with 95% CI= (2.140,2.163)), respectively. CONCLUSIONS That data in this study show the BCG might provide the protection against COVID-19, with consequent less COVID-19 infection and deaths and more rapid recovery. BCG vaccine might bridge the gap before the disease-specific vaccine is developed, but this hypothesis needs to be further tested in rigorous randomized clinical trials. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT RR2-https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.14.20131268

scholarly journals The Effect of Vaccination Rates on the Infection of COVID-19 under the Vaccination Rate below the Herd Immunity Threshold

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 7491
Author(s):  
Yi-Tui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

Although vaccination is carried out worldwide, the vaccination rate varies greatly. As of 24 May 2021, in some countries, the proportion of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 has exceeded 50%, but in many countries, this proportion is still very low, less than 1%. This article aims to explore the impact of vaccination on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the herd immunity of almost all countries in the world has not been reached, several countries were selected as sample cases by employing the following criteria: more than 60 vaccine doses per 100 people and a population of more than one million people. In the end, a total of eight countries/regions were selected, including Israel, the UAE, Chile, the United Kingdom, the United States, Hungary, and Qatar. The results find that vaccination has a major impact on reducing infection rates in all countries. However, the infection rate after vaccination showed two trends. One is an inverted U-shaped trend, and the other is an L-shaped trend. For those countries with an inverted U-shaped trend, the infection rate begins to decline when the vaccination rate reaches 1.46–50.91 doses per 100 people.

Abstract P360: Hypertension Treatment Rates And Health Worker Density: An Analysis Of Worldwide Data

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 129 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajesh Vedanthan ◽  
Mondira Ray ◽  
Valentin Fuster ◽  
Ellen Magenheim
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Health Worker ◽  
World Bank ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Hypertension Treatment ◽  
Treatment Rate ◽  
Capita Gross Domestic Product ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

Introduction: Hypertension is the leading global risk for mortality and its prevalence is increasing in many low- and middle-income countries. Hypertension treatment rates are low worldwide, potentially in part due to insufficient human resources. However, the relationship between health worker density and hypertension treatment rates is unknown. Objective: To conduct an econometric analysis of the relationship between health worker density and hypertension treatment rates worldwide. Methods: Hypertension treatment rates were collected from published reports between 1980 and 2010. Data on health worker (physician and nurse) density were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO). Data for potential confounding variables--per capita gross domestic product, hospital bed density, burden of infectious diseases, land area and urban population--were obtained from WHO and World Bank databases. Potential interaction by per capita gross domestic product was evaluated. Multivariable logistic-logarithmic regression analysis was performed using Stata. Results: Full data were available from 146 countries spanning all World Bank income classification categories. Health worker density was significantly associated with hypertension treatment rate in the unadjusted model (beta = 0.23; p < 0.005). In the fully adjusted model, the association remained positive but was not statistically significant (beta = 0.30; p = 0.078) (Figure). Hypertension treatment rates were more strongly related to physician than nurse density (beta = 0.21 vs 0.08; p = 0.10 vs 0.49). Conclusion: Hypertension treatment rates across the world appear to be related to health worker density, although the relationship does not achieve strict statistical significance. Our results suggest that a 10% increase in health worker density is associated with a 2-3% increase in hypertension treatment rate. Given the global burden of hypertension and other chronic diseases, WHO guidelines for health workforce staffing may need to be reconsidered.

scholarly journals The Global Economy in the 21st Century: Will the Trends of the 20th Century Continue?

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (49) ◽  
pp. 62-72
Author(s):  
Stanisław Gomułka
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Capita Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
The World ◽  
Current Century ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Global Economic Growth

Abstract This paper compares three lists of basic ‘stylized facts’ of global economic growth and proposes a list of five ‘stylized trends’ that describe the main developments of the global economy in the 20th century. The author’s main purpose is to answer the question whether, in the light of the contemporary growth theory and demographic forecasts, these trends are likely to continue in the 21st century. Considering this theory, it is argued that the global economy rate of growth of the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to continue to be high in the first half of the current century, but decline significantly in the second half. This paper offers forecasts for the average growth rates during this century, and the levels by its end, of the per capita GDP for the technology frontier area (TFA) of the world, and for the countries outside the TFA. According to these forecasts, the strong divergence trend of the 19th and 20th centuries will be replaced by a strong convergence between the TFA and the other countries during the 21st century.

scholarly journals Bacille Calmette-Guérin Osteomyelitis of the Distal Radius in a Toddler

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-139
Author(s):  
Ji-Young Kim ◽  
Ji-In Jeon ◽  
Hak Chang
Keyword(s):  
Side Effects ◽  
Early Diagnosis ◽  
Clinical Features ◽  
Distal Radius ◽  
Rare Case ◽  
Proper Treatment ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The World

BCG (Bacille Calmette-Guérin) vaccine has been administered safely to billions of people all over the world. The Tokyo-172 strain has reported to have a lower virulence and side effects than other strains. BCG osteomyelitis of distal radius is a very rare but serious complication due to generalized dissemination of BCG. We report a rare case of BCG osteomyelitis of the distal radius in a 21-month-old girl who had no underlying disorders. Although uncommon, BCG osteomyelitis should be considered a possible complication of BCG vaccination under certain clinical features for early diagnosis and proper treatment.

scholarly journals Explore the Possible Impact of BCG Vaccination Policy on the Morbidity, Mortality, and Recovery Rates due to COVID-19 Infection

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan-Hsin Chang ◽  
Yue-Cune Chang
Keyword(s):  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The World ◽  
New Form ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Disease Specific

ABSTRACTBACKGROUNDThe Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is the new form of an acute infectious respiratory disease and has quickly spread over most continents in the world. Recently, it has been shown that Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) might protect against COVID-19. This study aims to investigate the possible correlation between BCG vaccination and morbidity/mortality/recovery rate associated with COVID-19 infection.METHODSData of COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, recoveries, and population were obtained from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Accessed on 12 June, 2020). To have meaningful comparisons among countries’ mortality and recovery rates, we only choose those countries with COVID-19 infected cases at least 200. The Poisson regression and logistic regression were used to explore the relationship between BCG vaccination and morbidity, mortality and recovery rates.RESULTSAmong those 158 countries with at least 200 COVID-19 infected cases, there were 141 countries with BCG vaccination information available. The adjusted rates ratio of COVID-19 confirmed cases for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination was 0.339 (with 95% CI= (0.338,0.340)). Moreover, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of death and recovery after coronavirus infected for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination were 0.258 (with 95% CI= (0.254,0.261)) and 2.151 (with 95% CI= (2.140,2.163)), respectively.CONCLUSIONSThat data in this study show the BCG might provide the protection against COVID-19, with consequent less COVID-19 infection and deaths and more rapid recovery. BCG vaccine might bridge the gap before the disease-specific vaccine is developed, but this hypothesis needs to be further tested in rigorous randomized clinical trials.

Explore the Possible Impact of BCG Vaccination Policy on the Morbidity, Mortality, and Recovery Rates due to COVID-19 Infection. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan-Hsin Chang ◽  
Yue-Cune Chang
Keyword(s):  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The World ◽  
New Form ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Disease Specific

UNSTRUCTURED BACKGROUND The Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is the new form of an acute infectious respiratory disease and has quickly spread over most continents in the world. Recently, it has been shown that Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) might protect against COVID-19. This study aims to investigate the possible correlation between BCG vaccination and morbidity/mortality/recovery rate associated with COVID-19 infection. METHODS Data of COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, recoveries, and population were obtained from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Accessed on 12 June, 2020). To have meaningful comparisons among countries mortality and recovery rates, we only choose those countries with COVID-19 infected cases at least 200. The Poisson regression and logistic regression were used to explore the relationship between BCG vaccination and morbidity, mortality and recovery rates. RESULTS Among those 158 countries with at least 200 COVID-19 infected cases, there were 141 countries with BCG vaccination information available. The adjusted rates ratio of COVID-19 confirmed cases for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination was 0.339 (with 95% CI= (0.338,0.340)). Moreover, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of death and recovery after coronavirus infected for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination were 0.258 (with 95% CI= (0.254,0.261)) and 2.151 (with 95% CI= (2.140,2.163)), respectively. CONCLUSIONS That data in this study show the BCG might provide the protection against COVID-19, with consequent less COVID-19 infection and deaths and more rapid recovery. BCG vaccine might bridge the gap before the disease-specific vaccine is developed, but this hypothesis needs to be further tested in rigorous randomized clinical trials. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT RR2-https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.14.20131268

scholarly journals A Short History of the BCG Vaccine

2021 ◽  
pp. 55-58
Author(s):  
Georgiana Bianca Constantin ◽  
Ionuţ Căluian
Keyword(s):  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Tuberculin Test ◽  
Bcg Vaccine ◽  
National Program ◽  
Short History ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The World ◽  
History Of ◽  
And Control

BCG vaccine continues to be controversial, live attenuated BCG is still the only vaccine in use which is able to prevent TB in humans. It is still difficult to determine which strain should be used and further detailed analysis of the genomics and immunogenicity of BCG sub-strains may provide an answer to this important question. The only vaccine available is the BCG (Bacille Calmette-Guerin), that has been used for about 100 years, with remarkable results. The majority of the world followed the lead of Europe and the WHO and introduced routine BCG vaccination according to various schedules. According to the Methodological Guide for the Implementation of the National Program for the Prevention, Surveillance and Control of Tuberculosis, BCG vaccination is indicated for all newborns, at the age of 2-7 days (if there are no contraindications), before discharge from maternity and without preliminary tuberculin test.

scholarly journals Modeling the Effect of Population-Wide Vaccination on the Evolution of COVID-19 Epidemic in Canada

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Intissar Harizi ◽  
Soulaimane Berkane ◽  
Abdelhamid Tayebi
Keyword(s):  
Vaccine Efficacy ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Daily Rate ◽  
The World ◽  
Additional State ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

AbstractPopulation-wide vaccination is critical for containing the COVID-19 pandemic when combined with effective testing and prevention measures. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak, several companies worked tirelessly for the development of an efficient vaccine that would put an end to this pandemic. Today, a number of COVID-19 vaccines have been approved for use by a number of national regulatory organizations. Vaccination campaigns have already started in several countries with different daily-vaccination rates depending on the country’s vaccination capacity. Therefore, we find it timely and extremely important to conduct a study on the effect of population-wide vaccination campaigns on the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic. To this end, we propose a new deterministic mathematical model to forecast the COVID-19 epidemic evolution under the effect of vaccination and vaccine efficacy. This model, referred to as SIRV, consists of a compartmental SIR (susceptible, infectious and removed) model augmented with an additional state V representing the effectively vaccinated population as well as two inputs representing the daily-vaccination rate and the vaccine efficacy. Using our SIRV model, we predict the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in Canada and its most affected provinces (Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba), for different daily vaccination rates and vaccine efficacy. Projections suggest that, without vaccination, 219, 000 lives could be lost across Canada by the end of 2021 due to COVID-19. The ongoing vaccination campaign across Canada seems to unfold relatively slowly at an average daily rate close to 1/2 vaccine per 1, 000 population. At this pace, we could be saving more than 77, 496 lives by the end of the year. Doubling the current vaccination efforts (1 vaccine per day per 1, 000 population) could be sufficient to save 125, 839 lives in Canada during the current year 2021. We would like to point out that our study assumes that the vaccine is perfectly safe without any short or long term side-effects. This study has been conducted independently at arm’s length from vaccine manufacturers, using the available data from Canada health services. This study can be easily adapted to other places in the world.

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