Growth Differentiation Factor-15 is a Biomarker for All-cause Mortality but Less Evident for Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Prospective Study
Abstract Background Previous studies have proposed growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) as a predictor of adverse cardiovascular outcomes and mortality. The present study aimed to determine if such associations remain after accounting for markers of inflammation and cardiac dysfunction as well as death as a competing risk. Methods Plasma GDF-15 levels and cardiovascular risk factors were measured in individuals without cardiovascular diseases (n = 4,518, aged 57.4 ± 5.96 years, 39.2% men), who participated in Malmö Diet and Cancer-Cardiovascular Cohort during 1991–1994 and were followed up for more than 20 years. Incidence of coronary events, ischemic stroke, cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality was studied in relation to GDF-15 using Cox proportional hazards regression, with adjustment for potential confounders including high sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP). Confounding from death as competing risk was carefully checked using the Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard model. Results During follow-up, 473 coronary events, 366 ischemic stroke, 405 cardiovascular deaths, and 1,445 all-cause deaths occurred. The associations of GDF-15 with coronary events, ischemic stroke, or cardiovascular mortality were attenuated and non-significant after adjusting for NT-proBNP or controlling for death from other causes as a competing risk. All-cause mortality remained significantly related to GDF-15. After multivariate adjustment, the hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for all-cause mortality was 1.60 (1.34, 1.91), in the top compared with the bottom quartile of GDF-15. Conclusions GDF-15 concentration is a robust biomarker for all-cause mortality but less reliable for coronary event, ischemic stroke or cardiovascular mortality.