scholarly journals Does TB Vaccination Reduce COVID-19 Infection?: No Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity and Difference-in-Differences Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hiroaki Matsuura ◽  
Masao Fukui ◽  
Kohei Kawaguchi
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Community ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Universal Coverage ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Bacillus Calmette Guerin ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Cross Country

Abstract In the middle of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the BCG hypothesis, the prevalence and severity of the COVID-19 outbreak seems to be negatively correlated with whether a country has a universal coverage of pediatric Bacillus Calmette–Guérin (BCG) vaccination, has emerged and attracted the attention of scientific community and media outlets. However, all existing claims are based on cross-country correlations that do not exclude the possibility of spurious correlation. By merging country-age-level confirmed case statistics of COVID-19 from 17 countries with the start/termination years of pediatric universal BCG vaccination policy and age-specific BCG vaccination coverage, this paper examines the role of BCG vaccination in COVID-19 infection. Despite the cross-country evidence from the previous literature, the results of both regression discontinuity design and difference-in-differences approaches do not support the BCG hypothesis.The results of these previous studies are likely to suffer from spurious correlations.

scholarly journals Does TB Vaccination Reduce COVID-19 Infection? No Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Analysis

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masao Fukui ◽  
Kohei Kawaguchi ◽  
Hiroaki Matsuura
Keyword(s):  
Scientific Community ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Universal Coverage ◽  
Bacillus Calmette Guerin ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Spurious Correlation ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
Tuberculosis Disease

In the middle of the global COVID-19 pandemic, the BCG hypothesis, the prevalence and severity of the COVID-19 outbreak seems to be correlated with whether a country has a universal coverage of Bacillus-Calmette-Guérin (BCG), a vaccine for tuberculosis disease (TB), has emerged and attracted the attention of scientific community and media outlets. However, all existing claims are based on cross-country correlations that do not exclude the possibility of spurious correlation. We merged country-age-level case statistics with the start/termination years of BCG vaccination policy and conducted a regression discontinuity and difference-indifference analysis. The results do not support the BCG hypothesis.

The Partisan Logic of City Mobilization: Evidence from State Lobbying Disclosures

2020 ◽  
Vol 114 (3) ◽  
pp. 677-690
Author(s):  
JULIA A. PAYSON
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
The United States ◽  
State Legislators ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Municipal Governments ◽  
Local Officials

Why do local governments sometimes hire lobbyists to represent them in other levels of government? I argue that such mobilization efforts depend in part on the policy congruence between localities and their elected delegates in the legislature. I provide evidence consistent with this theory by examining how municipal governments in the United States respond to partisan and ideological mismatches with their state legislators—a common representational challenge. Using almost a decade of original panel data on municipal lobbying in all 50 states, I employ difference-in-differences and a regression discontinuity design to demonstrate that cities are significantly more likely to hire lobbyists when their districts elect non-co-partisan state representatives. The results are broadly consistent with a model of intergovernmental mobilization in which local officials purchase advocacy to compensate for the preference gaps that sometimes emerge in multilevel government.

scholarly journals The Effect of Public Insurance Coverage for Childless Adults on Labor Supply

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 124-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Dague ◽  
Thomas DeLeire ◽  
Lindsey Leininger
Keyword(s):  
Labor Supply ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Insurance Coverage ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Public Insurance ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Percent Decline ◽  
Rule Out

This study provides plausibly causal estimates of the effect of public insurance coverage on the employment of non-elderly, nondisabled adults without dependent children (“childless adults”). We take advantage of the sudden imposition of an enrollment cap in Wisconsin, comparing the labor supply of enrollees to eligible applicants placed on a waitlist using a regression discontinuity design and difference-in-differences methods. We find enrollment into public insurance leads to sizable and statistically meaningful reductions in employment, with an estimated effect size of just over 5 percentage points, a 12 percent decline. Confidence intervals rule out positive and large negative effects. (JEL G22, H75, I13, I18, I38, J22)

scholarly journals Political Dynasties and the Incumbency Advantage in Party-Centered Environments

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 706-712 ◽  
Author(s):  
JON H. FIVA ◽  
DANIEL M. SMITH
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Organizational Networks ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Level Data

A handful of recent studies have investigated the causal effect of incumbency on dynasty formation in candidate-centered electoral contexts. We use candidate-level data and a regression discontinuity design to estimate the incumbency advantage and its relation to dynasty formation in the party-centered, closed-list, proportional-representation setting of Norway. The results indicate that the incumbency advantage exists even in this party-centered environment; however, in contrast to recent findings for the United States and the Philippines, we find no evidence that incumbency is important to the formation of dynasties. This finding underscores the need for more research into the role of internal party organizational networks in the perpetuation of political dynasties.

Book Reviews

2011 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 722-724
Keyword(s):  
Impact Evaluation ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Harvard University ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Selection Methods ◽  
Evaluation Design ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Combining Methods

Rema Hanna of John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University reviews “Impact Evaluation in Practice” by Paul J. Gertler, Sebastian Martinez, Patrick Premand, Laura B. Rawlings, and Christel M. J. Vermeersch. The EconLit Abstract of the reviewed work begins “Presents an introduction to the topic of impact evaluation and its practice in development. Discusses why impact evaluation is important; determining evaluation questions; causal inference and counterfactuals; randomized selection methods; regression discontinuity design; difference-in-differences; matching; combining methods; evaluating multifaceted programs; operationalizing the impact evaluation design; choosing the sample; collecting data; and producing and disseminating findings. Glossary; index.”

scholarly journals Parliamentary Representation and the Normalization of Radical Right Support

2021 ◽  
pp. 001041402199715
Author(s):  
Vicente Valentim
Keyword(s):  
Social Norms ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Radical Right ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Political Preferences ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Radical Right Parties ◽  
Mode Study

How do stigmatized political preferences become normalized? I argue that the parliamentary representation of the radical right normalizes radical right support. Radical right politicians breach established social norms. Hence their supporters have an incentive to conceal that support. When the radical right enters parliament, however, its voters are likely to perceive that their views have been legitimized, becoming more likely to display their private preferences. I use three studies to test this argument. Study 1 employs a regression discontinuity comparing the underreport of voting for radical right parties (RRPs) above and below thresholds of parliamentary representation. Study 2 compares how much individuals report liking RRPs in post-electoral surveys depending on interview mode. Study 3 employs a difference-in-differences that looks into the underreport of UKIP vote before and after entering parliament. The results support the argument and highlight the role of political institutions in defining the acceptability of behaviors in society.

scholarly journals Association of BCG vaccination policy with prevalence and mortality of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Giovanni Sala ◽  
Tsuyoshi Miyakawa
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Confounding Factor ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Bacillus Calmette Guerin ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Beneficial Effects ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Linear Regression Modeling

AbstractThere is some evidence that tuberculosis vaccine bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) has non-specific beneficial effects against non-related infections. Here, we examined the possible association between BCG vaccination with prevalence and mortality by COVID-19 by using publicly available data of COVID-19 in 199 countries/regions and the BCG World Atlas. By using linear regression modeling, we found that the number of total cases and deaths per one million population were significantly associated with the country’s policy concerning BCG vaccine administration. The amount of variance in cases and deaths explained by BCG vaccination policy ranged between 12.5% and 38%. Importantly, this effect remained significant after controlling for the country’s life expectancy and the average temperature in February and March 2020, which themselves are significantly correlated with the cases and deaths indices, respectively. By contrast, the ratio between deaths and cases was weakly affected. This latter outcome suggested that BCG vaccination may have hindered the overall spread of the virus or progression of the disease rather than reducing mortality rates (i.e., deaths/cases ratio). Finally, by roughly dividing countries into three categories showing high, middle, or low growth rate of the cases, we found a highly significant difference between the slope categories among the BCG groups, suggesting that the time since the onset of the spread of the virus was not a major confounding factor. While this retrospective epidemiological study potentially suffers from a number of unknown confounding factors, these associations support the idea that BCG vaccination may provide protection against SARS-CoV-2, which, together with its proven safety, encourages consideration of further detailed epidemiological studies, large-scale clinical trials on the efficacy of this vaccine on COVID-19, and/or re-introduction of BCG vaccination practice in the countries which are currently devoid of the practice.

Methods Matter: p-Hacking and Publication Bias in Causal Analysis in Economics

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (11) ◽  
pp. 3634-3660 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abel Brodeur ◽  
Nikolai Cook ◽  
Anthony Heyes
Keyword(s):  
Publication Bias ◽  
Instrumental Variables ◽  
Regression Discontinuity ◽  
Causal Analysis ◽  
Randomized Control Trials ◽  
Regression Discontinuity Design ◽  
Hypothesis Tests ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Randomized Control ◽  
Economics Journals

The credibility revolution in economics has promoted causal identification using randomized control trials (RCT), difference-in-differences (DID), instrumental variables (IV) and regression discontinuity design (RDD). Applying multiple approaches to over 21,000 hypothesis tests published in 25 leading economics journals, we find that the extent of p-hacking and publication bias varies greatly by method. IV (and to a lesser extent DID) are particularly problematic. We find no evidence that (i) papers published in the Top 5 journals are different to others; (ii) the journal “revise and resubmit” process mitigates the problem; (iii) things are improving through time. (JEL A14, C12, C52)

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