scholarly journals The dominant role of East Asia warming in increasing tropical western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ping Zhao ◽  
Jing Xu ◽  
Johnny Chan ◽  
Ming Shi ◽  
Chi Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
East Asia ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
South Asian High ◽  
Asian Continent ◽  
Increasing Trend

Abstract The increase in intense tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) has often been linked to a warming ocean1-8. Here we show, however, that the TC intensity increasing trend in the tropical WNP during the past three decades are mainly related to the warming of the East Asian continent, especially a warming Tibetan Plateau (TP). The regional weak increasing trend of local sea surface temperature unlikely supplies the necessary energy for this increase in TC intensity. Instead, a weakened vertical wind shear (VWS) appears to be the main contributing factor. Through numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the warming TP strengthens the South Asian high-pressure system, which triggers a wave train toward the tropical WNP, subsequently modifying the upper- and lower-tropospheric zonal winds to reduce the VWS. Applying the high correlation between TC intensity and the local VWS to climate model projection results supports that TCs will likely become stronger, with a significantly increasing rate of 1.0 m s-1/10 years during 2021–2050, due to a further warming of the East Asian continent. Thus, the rims of East Asia and Southeast Asia could face an increasing risk of intense typhoons.

scholarly journals Future Change in Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific in CORDEX-East Asia Multi-RCMs Forced by HadGEM2-AO

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (16) ◽  
pp. 5053-5067 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyeonjae Lee ◽  
Chun-Sil Jin ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha ◽  
Minkyu Lee ◽  
Dong-Kyou Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
East Asia ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Cordex East Asia

AbstractFuture changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) are analyzed using four regional climate models (RCMs) within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for East Asia. All RCMs are forced by the HadGEM2-AO under the historical and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenarios, and are performed at about 50-km resolution over the CORDEX-East Asia domain. In the historical simulations (1980–2005), multi-RCM ensembles yield realistic climatology for TC tracks and genesis frequency during the TC season (June–November), although they show somewhat systematic biases in simulating TC activity. The future (2024–49) projections indicate an insignificant increase in the total number of TC genesis (+5%), but a significant increase in track density over East Asia coastal regions (+17%). The enhanced TC activity over the East Asia coastal regions is mainly related to vertical wind shear weakened by reduced meridional temperature gradient and increased sea surface temperature (SST) at midlatitudes. The future accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of total TCs increases significantly (+19%) because individual TCs have a longer lifetime (+6.6%) and stronger maximum wind speed (+4.1%) compared to those in the historical run. In particular, the ACE of TCs passing through 25°N increases by 45.9% in the future climate, indicating that the destructiveness of TCs can be significantly enhanced in the midlatitudes despite the total number of TCs not changing greatly.

scholarly journals Slowdown in the Decay of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones Making Landfall on the Asian Continent

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinjie Song ◽  
Philip J. Klotzbach ◽  
Haikun Zhao ◽  
Yihong Duan
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Relative Vorticity ◽  
Asian Continent ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Thermodynamic Variables ◽  
Dynamic Variables

This study finds an increasing trend in the decay timescale (τ) of western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TCs) making landfall on the Asian continent from 1966–2018. Statistical analysis of individual landfalling TCs shows that τ is significantly positively linked to soil wetness, 850-hPa relative vorticity and 200-hPa divergence, whereas it is weakly correlated with 700–500-hPa relative humidity and 850–200-hPa vertical wind shear. For TCs hitting southeastern China, the observed increasing τ is likely caused by enhanced 850-hPa vorticity and 200-hPa divergence. For TCs hitting southern China, increasing τ is likely driven by increased 850-hPa vorticity. By comparison, there are no significant trends in environmental variables over the eastern Indo-China Peninsula, and τ has not significantly changed in this region. Our results imply that the increasing τ of WNP landfalling TCs on the Asian continent are more likely caused by changes in dynamic variables than changes in thermodynamic variables.

scholarly journals Coupling Modes of Climatological Intraseasonal Oscillation in the East Asian Summer Monsoon

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (17) ◽  
pp. 6363-6382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zehao Song ◽  
Congwen Zhu ◽  
Jingzhi Su ◽  
Boqi Liu
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Anomaly ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract The present study used harmonic and multivariate empirical orthogonal function (MV-EOF) analyses to identify the existence of climatological intraseasonal oscillation (CISO) in the diabatic heating, precipitation, and circulation of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The strongest CISO signals are found in the north of the western North Pacific, possibly because of the horizontal gradient of diabatic heating induced by the seasonal land–sea thermal contrast. Further, the phase relationship between the diabatic heating components maintains the EASM CISO. The first two coupling modes of EASM CISO in the circulation are robust during May through August, with a period of 40–80 days, and exhibit phase locking to the stepwise establishment of the EASM, which reveals the coaction of the Mongolian cyclone (MC) around Lake Baikal at 850 hPa, the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) at 500 hPa, and the South Asian high (SAH) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) at 200 hPa. The first mode shows that the jointly enhanced MC, WNPSH, and SAH correspond to a tripole rainfall anomaly with strong mei-yu and baiu fronts over East Asia. The second mode, however, indicates the eastward and northwestward propagation of MC and WNPSH, respectively, with suppressed SAH, as well as a dipole rainfall anomaly over East Asia. Both the observations and numerical simulation verify the importance of daily diabatic heating and SST in maintaining the CISO modes over the WNP, where the condensation heating related to atmospheric forcing determines the local intraseasonal air–sea interaction.

scholarly journals Association of the Poleward Shift of East Asian Subtropical Upper-Level Jet with Frequent Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific in Summer

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (14) ◽  
pp. 5597-5603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xian Chen ◽  
Zhong Zhong ◽  
Wei Lu
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Teleconnection Pattern ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Upper Level Jet

The NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset and the tropical cyclone (TC) best-track dataset from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo Typhoon Center were employed in the present study to investigate the possible linkage of the meridional displacement of the East Asian subtropical upper-level jet (EASJ) with the TC activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). Results indicate that summertime frequent TC activities would create the poleward shift of the EASJ through a stimulated Pacific–Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern as well as the changed large-scale meridional temperature gradient. On the contrary, in the inactive TC years, the EASJ is often located more southward than normal with an enhanced intensity. Therefore, TC activities over the WNP are closely related to the location and intensity of the EASJ in summer at the interannual time scale.

scholarly journals Multidecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Western North Pacific

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3806-3820 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xidong Wang ◽  
Chunzai Wang ◽  
Liping Zhang ◽  
Xin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Trade Wind ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Multidecadal Variability ◽  
Heat Potential

Abstract This study investigates the variation of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and its relationship with large-scale climate variability. RI events have exhibited strikingly multidecadal variability. During the warm (cold) phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the annual RI number is generally lower (higher) and the average location of RI occurrence tends to shift southeastward (northwestward). The multidecadal variations of RI are associated with the variations of large-scale ocean and atmosphere variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), relative humidity (RHUM), and vertical wind shear (VWS). It is shown that their variations on multidecadal time scales depend on the evolution of the PDO phase. The easterly trade wind is strengthened during the cold PDO phase at low levels, which tends to make equatorial warm water spread northward into the main RI region rsulting from meridional ocean advection associated with Ekman transport. Simultaneously, an anticyclonic wind anomaly is formed in the subtropical gyre of the WNP. This therefore may deepen the depth of the 26°C isotherm and directly increase TCHP over the main RI region. These thermodynamic effects associated with the cold PDO phase greatly support RI occurrence. The reverse is true during the warm PDO phase. The results also indicate that the VWS variability in the low wind shear zone along the monsoon trough may not be critical for the multidecadal modulation of RI events.

scholarly journals Environmental Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (22) ◽  
pp. 5497-5509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerry Emanuel
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Strongly Correlated

Abstract Revised estimates of kinetic energy production by tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and western North Pacific are presented. These show considerable variability on interannual-to-multidecadal time scales. In the Atlantic, variability on time scales of a few years and more is strongly correlated with tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature, while in the western North Pacific, this correlation, while still present, is considerably weaker. Using a combination of basic theory and empirical statistical analysis, it is shown that much of the variability in both ocean basins can be explained by variations in potential intensity, low-level vorticity, and vertical wind shear. Potential intensity variations are in turn factored into components related to variations in net surface radiation, thermodynamic efficiency, and average surface wind speed. In the Atlantic, potential intensity, low-level vorticity, and vertical wind shear strongly covary and are also highly correlated with sea surface temperature, at least during the period in which reanalysis products are considered reliable. In the Pacific, the three factors are not strongly correlated. The relative contributions of the three factors are quantified, and implications for future trends and variability of tropical cyclone activity are discussed.

scholarly journals A Survey on the Relationship between Ocean Subsurface Temperature and Tropical Cyclone over the Western North Pacific

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Difu Sun ◽  
Junqiang Song ◽  
Kaijun Ren ◽  
Xiaoyong Li ◽  
Guangjie Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Subsurface Water ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between ocean subsurface temperature and tropical cyclone (TC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) is studied based on the TC best-track data and global reanalysis data during the period of 1948–2012. Here the TC frequency (TCF), lifespan, and genesis position of TCs are analysed. A distinctive negative correlation between subsurface water temperature and TCF is observed, especially the TCF in the southeastern quadrant of the WNP (0–15°N, 150–180°E). According to the detrended subsurface temperature anomalies of the 125 m depth layer in the main TC genesis area (0–30°N, 100–180°E), we selected the subsurface cold and warm years. During the subsurface cold years, TCs tend to have a longer mean lifespan and a more southeastern genesis position than the subsurface warm years in general. To further investigate the causes of this characteristic, the TC genesis potential indexes (GPI) are used to analyse the contributions of environmental factors to TC activities. The results indicate that the negative correlation between subsurface water temperature and TCF is mainly caused by the variation of TCF in the southeastern quadrant of the WNP, where the oceanic and atmospheric environments are related to ocean subsurface conditions. Specifically, compared with the subsurface warm years, there are larger relative vorticity, higher relative humidity, smaller vertical wind shear, weaker net longwave radiation, and higher ocean mixed layer temperature in the southeastern quadrant during cold years, which are all favorable for genesis and development of TC.

Evaluation of climatological tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific in the CORDEX-East Asia multi-RCM simulations

2015 ◽  
Vol 47 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 765-778 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Sil Jin ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha ◽  
Dong-Kyou Lee ◽  
Myoung-Seok Suh ◽  
Song-You Hong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
East Asia ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Tropical Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
Cordex East Asia

scholarly journals Comparison of Tropical Cyclone Activities over the Western North Pacific in CORDEX-East Asia Phase I and II Experiments

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (24) ◽  
pp. 10593-10607
Author(s):  
Minkyu Lee ◽  
Dong-Hyun Cha ◽  
Myoung-Seok Suh ◽  
Eun-Chul Chang ◽  
Joong-Bae Ahn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
East Asia ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Coastal Regions ◽  
Cordex East Asia

AbstractThis study evaluated tropical cyclone (TC) activity simulated by two regional climate models (RCMs) incorporated in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework with two different horizontal resolutions. Evaluation experiments with two RCMs (RegCM4 and MM5) forced by reanalysis data were conducted over the CORDEX-East Asia domain for phases I and II. The main difference between phases I and II is horizontal resolution (50 and 25 km). The 20-yr (1989–2008) mean performances of the experiments were investigated in terms of TC genesis, track, intensity, and TC-induced precipitation. In general, the simulated TC activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) varied depending on the model type and horizontal resolution. For both models, higher horizontal resolution improved the simulation of TC tracks near the coastal regions of East Asia, whereas the coarser horizontal resolution led to underestimated TC genesis compared with the best track data because of greater convective precipitation and enhanced atmospheric stabilization. In addition, the increased horizontal resolution prominently improved the simulation of TCs landfalling in East Asia and associated precipitation around coastal regions. This finding implies that high-resolution RCMs can improve the simulation of TC activities over the WNP (i.e., added value by increasing model resolution); thus, they have an advantage in climate change assessment studies.

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