scholarly journals An Improved SEIR Model Considering the Impact of Contact-Restricting Policies: A Case Study of COVID-19 in Wuhan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Silu Chen ◽  
Jiangping Chen ◽  
Tianyou Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Population Activity ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Prediction And Prevention ◽  
The Government ◽  
Travel Decisions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Dynamic modeling of infectious disease can simulate transmission processes of COVID-19, a newly been found infectious respiratory disease that has a substantial impact on both people's health and social development, and therefore plays an important role in the prediction and prevention of epidemics. Although there are many models that can accurately represent the number of infected patients, the influence of human factors on the transmission of the virus has not been fully investigated. Here, by considering the influence of policies on restricting contact between people, we modified the SEIR infectious disease model and developed a new model called the Quarantine-considering SEIR model (hereafter referred to as Q-SEIR), combining with dynamic parameter, contact rate, obtained by machine learning method, we can represent the effects of human movement and contact behavior during the epidemic. The experimental results show that this method can effectively represent the effect of patterns of population activity on the development of the epidemic. On one hand, our research results provide guidance for the government before issuing measures to restrict the movement and socialization of people; and on the other hand, our findings help identify the development stage of the epidemic more clearly for the public as well as provide information for citizens’ travel decisions.

scholarly journals Effect of Physical Characteristics on Resident’s Satisfaction in a High-Density Area of Ilorin Metropolis

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 1001-1006
Author(s):  
Oluwole Titilayo Alabi ◽  
◽  
Sakariyau Jamiu Kayode ◽  
AbdulKadir Misbahu ◽  
Oluwadare Joel Olaifa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Factors ◽  
Housing Satisfaction ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Alternative Means ◽  
Socio Economic Variables ◽  
The Government ◽  
Household Heads ◽  
Social Amenities ◽  
The Impact

This study looked at the impact of a resident’s physical attributes on housing satisfaction in Ilorin to figure out how to uncover the significant relationship in Ilorin. The research took a quantitative method. A questionnaire was designed and distributed to 126 household heads, with 94 responses. Households were polled using systematic random sampling to collect information on socio-economic variables and housing satisfaction. To analyze the effect of variables, the data were subjected to descriptive statistics and linear regression using SPSS. The study found that physical factors have a substantial impact on home satisfaction in the studied area. The study discovered that toilet facilities, rendered and painted walls, tiles, a well-equipped kitchen, no finishing wall, electricity and generator as an alternative means of lighting a kitchen without modern facilities, concrete, and a pit toilet are all factors that influence residents’ satisfaction. It was also discovered that the most excellent mean score was for bathroom facilities, rendered and painted walls, and tiles. It was suggested that the government make the missing social amenities available and rehabilitate the deteriorating ones as urgent. To improve resident satisfaction in the study region, proper routine management of social amenities should be done.

Covid 19’s Effect on Mental Health

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 1885-1889
Author(s):  
Raj Laddha
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Negative Energy ◽  
New Disease ◽  
Coping With Stress ◽  
The People ◽  
The Government ◽  
To Come ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

At times when we are faced with uncertainty, fear of the unknown, anxiety about a new disease, and what could happen can be overwhelming and cause strong emotions, not just in adults but in children as well. Necessary government guidelines, such as social distancing, can make people feel isolated and lonely and can increase stress and anxiety. Though these actions are necessary to reduce the spread of COVID-19, healthily coping with stress will make you, the people you care about, and your community stronger. This prospective study is aimed to assess the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on mental health and to investigate how the community can remain happy. The one thing which is spreading faster than the infectious disease during the pandemic is the negative energy, with total confirmed cases touching 1 crore, millions of people losing their jobs, and many losing their beloved ones. Awareness regarding mental health is a must. During this phase, there is extremely minimal knowledge about the impact of such epidemics on community mental health. This gap in knowledge means we are less prepared, critically ill-equipped to support communities as we face unprecedented times. In situations like these, all of us have to come forward. It is our responsibility how we handle this, our include both the government and each and every citizen of the country.

scholarly journals The Impact of and Government Planning and Responses to Pandemics for People with Disability: A Rapid Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (12) ◽  
pp. 6505
Author(s):  
Adyya Gupta ◽  
Anne Kavanagh ◽  
George Disney
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
General Population ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Rapid Review ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
People With Disability ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Objective—To collate evidence on (1) the risk of infection for people with disability during infectious disease outbreaks and/or pandemics and (2) government responses and pandemic plans for people with disability. Methods—Through two rapid reviews, relevant peer-reviewed studies and grey literature published from 2002 onwards in the English language were identified. Data were synthesised narratively. Results—Aim 1: Of the 680 studies, two studies were included in the review. No grey literature was eligible for inclusion. The evidence regarding risk was inconclusive. Aim 2: Of the 50 studies, three peer-review studies, along with four government reports were included. The literature largely reported on measures being taken to maximise the prevention of transmission of COVID-19 for the general population, with only a few programs including people with disability. Conclusion—Overall, there is inconclusive evidence on the risk of infection for people with disability during infectious disease outbreaks and/or pandemics and the government preparedness and planning for disease outbreaks and/or pandemics largely exclude people with disability. From a population health perspective, during disease outbreaks and pandemics, including the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the general population, it is important for governments to include people with disability in their pandemic planning and response.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF DISCLAIMER DUE TO COVID-19 ON THE RELIGIOUS VALUE OF OFFICIAL WORKERS

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Siti Zakiyatul Fikriyah ◽  
Khoirul Mumtahanah ◽  
Khasiatun Amaliyah
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Influence Factors ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Social Changes ◽  
Working From Home ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Social Affairs

The Covid-19 virus is one type of infectious disease or infectious disease that emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019. And began to spread in Indonesia in March 2021. The increasing number of positive cases and deaths due to Covid-19 has led the government to implement several policies, namely restrictions on Large-Scale Social Affairs (PSBB) and working from home. This policy has a very big impact on employers because they experience enormous losses so that company leaders carry out layoffs (layoffs) on a large scale or on a large scale. The impact of the termination of employment is felt directly by the workers concerned. And social changes began to occur in workers who were laid off (changes in religiosity), such as what happened in Dongos Village, Kedung District, Jepara Regency. This study aims to see the impact and influence factors of layoffs due to Covid-19 on the religious level of workers who were laid off and who were not laid off. The method used is a combined research approach (quantitative and qualitative), using a questionnaire and direct interviews. The results obtained indicate that layoffs due to Covid-19 affect the level of religiosity of laid-off workers. Moreover, there is a difference in the level of religiosity between workers who were laid off and those who were not. The factors that influence the impact of layoffs due to Covid-19 on the level of worker religiosity are 1) Ideological, 2) Ritualistic, 3) Expressive, and 4) Consequences

scholarly journals Evaluating the Effectiveness of Regional Lockdown Policies in the Containment of Covid-19: Evidence from Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamza Umer ◽  
Muhammad Salar Khan
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Religious Congregations ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Jammu And Kashmir ◽  
The Government ◽  
Econometric Analyses ◽  
Gilgit Baltistan ◽  
The Impact

To slow down the spread of Covid-19, administrative regions within Pakistan imposed complete and partial lockdown restrictions on socio-economic activities, religious congregations, and human movement. Here we examine the impact of regional lockdown strategies on Covid-19 outcomes. After conducting econometric analyses (Regression Discontinuity and Negative Binomial Regressions) on official data from the National Institute of Health (NIH) Pakistan, we find that strategies did not lead to a similar level of Covid-19 caseload (positive cases and deaths) in all regions. In terms of reduction in the overall caseload (positive cases and deaths), compared to no lockdown, complete and partial lockdown were effective in four regions: Balochistan, Gilgit Baltistan (GB), Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). Contrarily, complete and partial lockdowns were ineffective in containing the virus in the Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) regions. A divided response of the government, a significant proportion of daily wagers, poor habitat conditions, religious gatherings, and public attitude towards the virus jointly contributed to the ineffectiveness of lockdowns in the three largest regions. The observed regional heterogeneity in the effectiveness of lockdowns advocates for careful use of lockdown strategies based on the political, demographic, socio-economic, and religious factors.

scholarly journals The Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on the First COVID-19 Epidemic Wave in South Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thabo Mabuka ◽  
Nesisa Ncube ◽  
Michael Ross ◽  
Andrea Silaji ◽  
Willie Macharia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
South African ◽  
African Population ◽  
South African Population ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Epidemic Wave ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
Excess Deaths

On the 5th of March 2020, South Africa reported its first cases of COVID-19. This signalled the onset of the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa. The response by the Government of South Africa to the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa was the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In this study, a semi-reactive COVID-19 model, the ARI COVID-19 SEIR model, was used to investigate the impact of NPIs in South Africa to understand their effectiveness in the reduction of COVID-19 transmission in the South African population. This study also investigated the COVID-19 testing, reporting, hospitalised cases and excess deaths in the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa.

The Impact of Movement Control Order on Rural Livelihood in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 55
Author(s):  
Mohd Azren Hassan ◽  
Nur Atiqah Anuar Zabidi ◽  
Hidayati Ramli ◽  
Adam Aruldewan S. Muthuveeran ◽  
Yusfida Ayu Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
Rural Area ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Government Intervention ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Financial Assets ◽  
Sustainable Livelihood ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
The Government ◽  
Control Order ◽  
The Impact

In 2020, the spread of Coronavirus (COVID-19) had a global impact on normal daily life. The Government of Malaysia officially declared the Movement Control Order (MCO), an official national lockdown, to reduce the virus’s spread. In the face of the unprecedented global health pandemic, Malaysia had struggled to protect its citizens’ welfare and livelihoods, particularly in the hardest-hit rural areas. Therefore, this study uses the sustainable livelihood approach (SLA) focusing on the aspect of financial assets and government intervention to enhance understanding on the vulnerability in rural area’s livelihood. Pasir Puteh, Kelantan was identified as the rural area for this study. The analysis was performed on a questionnaire survey based on convenience sampling of 62 respondents. Cross table analysis and a correlation test were used to examine the livelihood of the rural area concerning the financial assets, government intervention and vulnerability. The findings indicated that the MCO had a substantial impact on the rural area regarding the vulnerability toward the financial assets, such as employment status, job loss, increasing living costs, and an insufficient response to rural economic challenges. At the same time, there is no substantial government intervention in the welfare of rural areas. According to the results, the study concluded that the government should set up training courses to assist in the long-term recovery of rural areas due to the enforced lockdown, which has adversely affected rural livelihoods.

scholarly journals Exploring dependence of COVID-19 on environmental factors and spread prediction in India

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hemant Bherwani ◽  
Ankit Gupta ◽  
Saima Anjum ◽  
Avneesh Anshul ◽  
Rakesh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Environmental Parameters ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
The Government ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Behavioural Aspects ◽  
The Impact

Abstract COVID-19 has taken the world by storm, with the majority of nations still being challenged by the novel coronavirus. The present work attempts to evaluate the spread of COVID-19 in India using the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model to establish the impact of socio-behavioural aspects, especially social distancing. The impact of environmental factors like temperature and relative humidity (RH) using statistical methods, including Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and Pearson’s correlation, is also studied on numbers of COVID-19 cases per day. Here we report the resultant changes of lockdowns-unlocks initiated by the Government of India for COVID-19, as against the scenario of total lockdown. The phased unlocks and crowded gatherings result in an increase in the number of cases and stretch the mitigation timeline of COVID-19 spread, delaying the flattening of the curve. The SEIR model predictions have been fairly validated against the actual cases. The daily spread of COVID-19 cases is also fairly correlated with temperature in Indian cities, as supported by well-established causation of the role of higher temperatures in disrupting the lipid layer of coronavirus, but is greatly undermined by the key factor of social distancing and gets confounded with other multiple unknown co-varying environmental factors. However, the analysis couldn’t clearly establish the role of RH in affecting daily COVID-19 cases. Hence, it becomes essential to include environmental parameters into epidemiological models like SEIR and to systematically plan controlled laboratory experiments and modeling studies to draw conclusive inferences, assisting policymakers and stakeholders in formulating comprehensive action plans to alleviate the COVID-19 spread.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Effectiveness of Regional Lockdown Policies in the Containment of Covid-19: Evidence from Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamza Umer ◽  
Muhammad Salar Khan
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Significant Proportion ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Religious Congregations ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Jammu And Kashmir ◽  
The Government ◽  
Econometric Analyses ◽  
Gilgit Baltistan ◽  
The Impact

To slow down the spread of Covid-19, administrative regions within Pakistan imposed complete and partial lockdown restrictions on socio-economic activities, religious congregations, and human movement. Here we examine the impact of regional lockdown strategies on Covid-19 outcomes. After conducting econometric analyses (Regression Discontinuity and Negative Binomial Regressions) on official data from the National Institute of Health (NIH) Pakistan, we find that strategies did not lead to a similar level of Covid-19 caseload (positive cases and deaths) in all regions. In terms of reduction in the overall caseload (positive cases and deaths), compared to no lockdown, complete and partial lockdown were effective in four regions: Balochistan, Gilgit Baltistan (GB), Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). Contrarily, complete and partial lockdowns were ineffective in containing the virus in the Punjab, Sindh, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) regions. A divided response of the government, a significant proportion of daily wagers, poor habitat conditions, religious gatherings, and public attitude towards the virus jointly contributed to the ineffectiveness of lockdowns in the three largest regions. The observed regional heterogeneity in the effectiveness of lockdowns advocates for careful use of lockdown strategies based on the political, demographic, socio-economic, and religious factors.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Lock-down on COVID-19 Spread in Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Altahir A. Altahir ◽  
Nirbhay Mathur ◽  
Loshini Thiruchelvam ◽  
Ghulam E. Mustafa Abro ◽  
Syaimaa’ S. M. Radzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Formal Analysis ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Immature Stage ◽  
Epidemic Spread ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

AbstractAfter a breakdown notified in Wuhan, China in December 2019, COVID-19 is declared as pandemic diseases. To the date more than 13 million confirmed cases and more than half a million are dead around the world. This virus also attached Malaysia in its immature stage where 8718 cases were confirmed and 122 were declared as death. Malaysia responsibly controlled the spread by enforcing MCO. Hence, it is required to visualize the pattern of Covid-19 spread. Also, it is necessary to estimate the impact of the enforced prevention measures. In this paper, an infectious disease dynamic modeling (SEIR) is used to estimate the epidemic spread in Malaysia. The main assumption is to update the reproduction number Rt with respect to the implemented prevention measures. For a time-frame of five month, the Rt was assumed to vary between 2.9 and 0.3. Moreover, the manuscript includes two possible scenarios: the first will be the extension of the stricter measures all over the country, and the second will be the gradual lift of the lock-down. After implementing several stages of lock-down we have found that the estimated values of the Rt with respect to the strictness degree varies between 0.2 to 1.1. A continuous strict lock-down may reduce the Rt to 0.2 and accordingly the estimated active cases will be reduced to 20 by the beginning of September 2020. In contrast, the second scenario considers a gradual lift of the enforced prevention measures by the end of June 2020, here we have considered three possible outcomes according to the MCO relaxation. Thus, the estimated values of Rt = 0.7, 0.9, 1.1, which shows a rapid increase in the number of active cases. The implemented SEIR model shows a close resemblance with the actual data recorded from 10, March till 7, July 2020.Author summaryConceptualization, A.A.A; methodology, A.A.A, N.M; validation, A.A.A, N.M; formal analysis, A.A.A; investigation, N.M, A.A.A; resources, G.E.M.A, L.T; data collection, L.T, N.M; writing—original draft preparation, A.A.A, L.T, G.E.M.A, N.M; writing—review and editing, V.S.A, S.C.D, B.S.G, P.S, S.A.B.M.Z, N.M; visualization, N.M; supervision, V.S.A; project administration, V.S.A. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript

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