Analysis of Provincial Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions Effect of West-to-East Gas Transmission Project: Based on PSM-DID Method
Abstract West-to-East gas transmission project (WEGTP) is a major energy construction programm in China. Evaluating its impacts on the energy consumption and carbon emissions(ECER) in involved provinces is of great significance for further achieve the goals of high-quality development. This paper takes WEGTP as a quasi-natural experiment, calculates the total energy consumption and carbon emissions by employing the provincial panel data of 1997-2017, and applies a counterfactual framework under Rubin Causal Model (RCM) to estimate the ECER policy effect of WEGTP Line I Subproject. It is found that WEGTP generates an overall carbon emissions reduction effect in the involved provinces. Further heterogeneity analysis points out that the project has an obvious energy conservation effect on the natural gas importer provinces, however the emissions reduction effect is not significant, while the project has significant positive effects on energy conservation and emissions reduction in the natural gas exporter provinces. Based on the results, WEGTP has played a long-term role in promoting energy structure optimization and carbon emissions reduction. It is still necessary to figure out the price mechanism of natural gas consumption, actively promote the structure of industrial, and meet the objective requirements of high-quality development with the actual effects of energy conservation and emissions reduction.