scholarly journals Black carbon and dust alter the response of mountain snow cover under climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion REVEILLET ◽  
Marie Dumont ◽  
Simon Gascoin ◽  
Matthieu Lafaysse ◽  
Pierre Nabat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Social Ecological Systems ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
Surface Mineral ◽  
The Impact

Abstract By darkening the snow surface, mineral dust and black carbon (BC) deposition enhances snowmelt and triggers numerous feedbacks. Assessments of their long-term impact at the regional scale are still largely missing despite the environmental and socio-economic implications of snow cover changes. Here we show, using numerical simulations, that dust and BC deposition has advanced snowmelt by 17 days on average in the French Alps and the Pyrenees over the 1979–2018 period, with major implications for water availability. We demonstrate that the decrease in BC deposition since the 1980s moderates the impact of current warming on snow cover decline. Hence, accounting for changes in light-absorbing particles deposition is required to improve the accuracy of snow cover reanalyses and climate projections, that are crucial for better understanding the past and future evolution of mountain social-ecological systems.

Modulation of the snow cover changes in the French Alps and the Pyrenees by the deposition of light absorbing particles over the last 40 years 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Réveillet ◽  
Marie Dumont ◽  
Simon Gascoin ◽  
Matthieu Lafaysse ◽  
Pierre Nabat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Saharan Dust ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Dust Deposition ◽  
Economic Implications ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Dust Events ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

<p>By darkening the snow surface, mineral dust and black carbon (BC) deposition accelerate snowmelt and triggers numerous feedbacks. Assessments of their long-term impact at the regional scale are still largely missing despite the environmental and socio-economic implications of snow cover changes. Using detailed snowpack simulations, we show that dust and BC deposition advance snowmelt by 17 days on average in the French Alps and the Pyrenees over the 1979-2018 period, with major implications for water availability and ground temperature. The effect of BC compared to dust is generally prevailing except in the Southern Pyrenees more exposed to Saharan dust events. We also quantify a contribution of BC and dust deposition up to 30% to the variance of the snow melt-out date. Lastly, we demonstrate that the decrease in BC deposition since the 80's alleviated the impact of current warming on snow cover decline. Therefore, this study highlights the importance of accounting for the inter-annual fluctuations in light absorbing particles deposition to improve the accuracy of snow cover reanalyses and climate projections.</p>

Role of Saharan dust and black carbon deposition on snow cover in the French mountain ranges over the last 39 years.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marion Réveillet ◽  
Marie Dumont ◽  
Simon Gascoin ◽  
Pierre Nabat ◽  
Matthieu Lafaysse ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Carbon Deposition ◽  
Mineral Dust ◽  
Explicit Representation ◽  
Dust Deposition ◽  
Mountain Ranges ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
Snow Cover Duration ◽  
The Impact

<p>Light absorbing particles such as black carbon(BC) or mineral dust are known to darken the snow surface when deposited on the snow cover and amplify several snow-albedo feedbacks, drastically modifying the snowpack evolution and the snow cover duration. Mineral dust deposition on snow is generally more variablein time than black carbon deposition and can exhibit both a high inter and intra annual variability. In France, the Alps and the Pyrenees mountain ranges are affected by large dust deposition events originating from the Sahara . The aim of this study is to quantify the impact of these impurities on the snow cover variability over the last 39 years (1979-2018).</p><p>For that purpose, the detailed snowpack model Crocus with an explicit representation of impurities is forced by SAFRAN meteorological reanalysis and a downscaling of the simulated deposition fluxes from a regional climate model (ALADIN-Climate). Different simulations are performed: (i) considering dust and/or BC (i.e. explicit representation), (ii) without impurities and (iii) considering an implicit representation (i.e. empirical parameterization based on a decreasing law of the albebo with snow age).</p><p>Simulations are compared at point scale to the snow depth measured at more than 200 Meteo-France’s stations in each massif, and spatially evaluated over the 2000-2018 period in comparing thesnow cover area, snow cover duration and the Jacard index to MODIS snow products. Scores are generally better when considering the explicit representation of the impurities than when using the snow age as a proxy for light absorbing particles content.</p><p>Results indicate that dust and BC have a significant impact on the snow cover duration with strong variations in the magnitude of the impact from one year to another and from one location to another.We also investigate the contribution of light absorbing particles depositionto snow cover inter-annual variability based on statistical approaches.</p>

scholarly journals Growth response of temperate mountain grasslands to inter-annual variations in snow cover duration

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3885-3897 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Choler
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Primary Productivity ◽  
Growth Response ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Initial Growth ◽  
Annual Variations ◽  
Standing Biomass ◽  
Mountain Grasslands ◽  
Snow Cover Duration ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A remote sensing approach is used to examine the direct and indirect effects of snow cover duration and weather conditions on the growth response of mountain grasslands located above the tree line in the French Alps. Time-integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVIint), used as a surrogate for aboveground primary productivity, and snow cover duration were derived from a 13-year long time series of the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). A regional-scale meteorological forcing that accounted for topographical effects was provided by the SAFRAN–CROCUS–MEPRA model chain. A hierarchical path analysis was developed to analyze the multivariate causal relationships between forcing variables and proxies of primary productivity. Inter-annual variations in primary productivity were primarily governed by year-to-year variations in the length of the snow-free period and to a much lesser extent by temperature and precipitation during the growing season. A prolonged snow cover reduces the number and magnitude of frost events during the initial growth period but this has a negligible impact on NDVIint as compared to the strong negative effect of a delayed snow melting. The maximum NDVI slightly responded to increased summer precipitation and temperature but the impact on productivity was weak. The period spanning from peak standing biomass to the first snowfall accounted for two-thirds of NDVIint and this explained the high sensitivity of NDVIint to autumn temperature and autumn rainfall that control the timing of the first snowfall. The ability of mountain plants to maintain green tissues during the whole snow-free period along with the relatively low responsiveness of peak standing biomass to summer meteorological conditions led to the conclusion that the length of the snow-free period is the primary driver of the inter-annual variations in primary productivity of mountain grasslands.

Impact of regional climate model input and soil map resolution on projected winter wheat production in SW Germany

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian Gayler ◽  
Rajina Bajracharya ◽  
Tobias Weber ◽  
Thilo Streck
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Soil Map ◽  
Soil Information ◽  
The Impact

<p>Agricultural ecosystem models, driven by climate projections and fed with soil information and plausible management scenarios are frequently used tools to predict future developments in agricultural landscapes. On the regional scale, the required soil parameters must be derived from soil maps that are available in different spatial resolutions, ranging from grid cell sizes of 50 m up to 1 km and more. The typical spatial resolution of regional climate projections is currently around 12 km. Given the small-scale heterogeneity in soil properties, using the most accurate soil representation could be important for predictions of crop growth. However, simulations with very highly resolved soil data requires greater computing time and higher effort for data organization and storage. Moreover, the higher resolution may not necessarily lead to better simulations due to redundant information of the land surface and because the impact of climate forcing could dominate over the effect of soil variability. This leads to the question if the use of high-resolution soil data leads to significantly different predictions of future yields and grain protein trends compared to simulations in which soil data is adapted to the resolution of the climate input.</p><p>This study investigated the impact of weather and soil input on simulated crop growth in an intensively used agricultural region in Southwest Germany. For all areas classified as ‘arable land’ (CLC10), winter wheat growth was simulated over a 44-year period (2006 to 2050) using weather projections from three regional climate models and soil information at two spatial resolutions. The simulations were performed with the model system Expert-N 5.0, where the crop model Gecros was combined with the Richards equation and the CN turnover module of the model Daisy. Soil hydraulic parameters as well as initial values of soil organic matter pools were estimated from BK50 soil map information on soil texture and soil organic matter content, using pedo-transfer functions and SOM pool fractionation following Bruun and Jensen (2002). The coarser soil map is derived from BK50 soil map (50m x 50m) by selecting only the dominant soil type in a 12km × 12km grid to be representative for that grid cell. The crop model was calibrated with field data of crop phenology, leaf area, biomass, yield and crop nitrogen, which were collected at a research station within the study area between 2009 and 2018.</p><p>The predicted increase in temperatures during the growing season correlated with earlier maturity, lower yields and a higher grain protein content. The regional mean values varied by +/- 0.5 t/ha or +/-0.3 percentage points of protein content depending to the climate model used. On the regional scale, the simulated trends remained unchanged using high-resolution or coarse resolution soil data. However, there are strong differences in both the forecasted averages and the distribution of forecasts, as the coarser resolution captures neither the small-scale heterogeneity nor the average of the high-resolution results.</p>

scholarly journals Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information

2019 ◽  
Vol 475 (2225) ◽  
pp. 20190013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Theodore G. Shepherd
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Ethical Implications ◽  
Climate Change Information ◽  
The Impact

Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and what will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects of climate change, but is ineffective when it comes to aspects of climate change related to atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet, atmospheric circulation strongly mediates climate impacts at the regional scale. In this way, the confidence framework, which focuses on avoiding type 1 errors (false alarms), raises the prospect of committing type 2 errors (missed warnings). This has ethical implications. At the regional scale, however, where information on climate change has to be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability and exposure—most of which are highly uncertain—the societally relevant question is not ‘What will happen?’ but rather ‘What is the impact of particular actions under an uncertain regional climate change?’ This reframing of the question can cut the Gordian knot of regional climate change information, provided one distinguishes between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties—something that is generally not done in climate projections. It is argued that the storyline approach to climate change—the identification of physically self-consistent, plausible pathways—has the potential to accomplish precisely this.

scholarly journals The Influence of Remote Aerosol Forcing from Industrialized Economies on the Future Evolution of East and West African Rainfall

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (23) ◽  
pp. 8335-8354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire Scannell ◽  
Ben B. B. Booth ◽  
Nick J. Dunstone ◽  
David P. Rowell ◽  
Dan J. Bernie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
African Rainfall ◽  
Aerosol Emission ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Aerosol Emissions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Past changes in global industrial aerosol emissions have played a significant role in historical shifts in African rainfall, and yet assessment of the impact on African rainfall of near-term (10–40 yr) potential aerosol emission pathways remains largely unexplored. While existing literature links future aerosol declines to a northward shift of Sahel rainfall, existing climate projections rely on RCP scenarios that do not explore the range of air quality drivers. Here we present projections from two emission scenarios that better envelop the range of potential aerosol emissions. More aggressive emission cuts result in northward shifts of the tropical rainbands whose signal can emerge from expected internal variability on short, 10–20-yr time horizons. We also show for the first time that this northward shift also impacts East Africa, with evidence of delays to both onset and withdrawal of the short rains. However, comparisons of rainfall impacts across models suggest that only certain aspects of both the West and East African model responses may be robust, given model uncertainties. This work motivates the need for wider exploration of air quality scenarios in the climate science community to assess the robustness of these projected changes and to provide evidence to underpin climate adaptation in Africa. In particular, revised estimates of emission impacts of legislated measures every 5–10 years would have a value in providing near-term climate adaptation information for African stakeholders.

scholarly journals Future evolution of the Sahel precipitation zonal contrast in CESM1

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 2801-2821
Author(s):  
Paul-Arthur Monerie ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Marco Gaetani ◽  
Elsa Mohino ◽  
Buwen Dong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Western Sahel ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sahel Precipitation

Abstract The main focus of this study is the zonal contrast of the Sahel precipitation shown in the CMIP5 climate projections: precipitation decreases over the western Sahel (i.e., Senegal and western Mali) and increases over the central Sahel (i.e., eastern Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger). This zonal contrast in future precipitation change is a robust model response to climate change but suffers from a lack of an explanation. To this aim, we study the impact of current and future climate change on Sahel precipitation by using the Large Ensemble of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). In CESM1, global warming leads to a strengthening of the zonal contrast, as shown by the difference between the 2060–2099 period (under a high emission scenario) and the 1960–1999 period (under the historical forcing). The zonal contrast is associated with dynamic shifts in the atmospheric circulation. We show that, in absence of a forced response, that is, when only accounting for internal climate variability, the zonal contrast is associated with the Pacific and the tropical Atlantic oceans variability. However, future patterns in sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are not necessary to explaining the projected strengthening of the zonal contrast. The mechanisms underlying the simulated changes are elucidated by analysing a set of CMIP5 idealised simulations. We show the increase in precipitation over the central Sahel to be mostly associated with the surface warming over northern Africa, which favour the displacement of the monsoon cell northwards. Over the western Sahel, the decrease in Sahel precipitation is associated with a southward shift of the monsoon circulation, and is mostly due to the warming of the SST. These two mechanisms allow explaining the zonal contrast in precipitation change.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of the French Alps snow cover to the variation of climatic variables

1994 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 469-477 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Martin ◽  
E. Brun ◽  
Y. Durand
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Internal State ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Snow Model ◽  
Analysis System ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Data Period

Abstract. In order to study the sensitivity of snow cover to changes in meteorological variables at a regional scale, a numerical snow model and an analysis system of the meteorological conditions adapted to relief were used. This approach has been successfully tested by comparing simulated and measured snow depth at 37 sites in the French Alps during a ten year data period. Then, the sensitivity of the snow cover to a variation in climatic conditions was tested by two different methods, which led to very similar results. To assess the impact of a particular "doubled CO2" scenario, coherent perturbations were introduced in the input data of the snow model. It was found that although the impact would be very pronounced, it would also be extremely differentiated, dependent on the internal state of the snow cover. The most sensitive areas are the elevations below 2400 m, especially in the southern part of the French Alps.

scholarly journals Snow cover sensitivity to black carbon deposition in the Himalayas: from atmospheric and ice core measurements to regional climate simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 4237-4249 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ménégoz ◽  
G. Krinner ◽  
Y. Balkanski ◽  
O. Boucher ◽  
A. Cozic ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Core ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Short Wave ◽  
Wave Radiation ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Snow Cover Duration ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. We applied a climate-chemistry global model to evaluate the impact of black carbon (BC) deposition on the Himalayan snow cover from 1998 to 2008. Using a stretched grid with a resolution of 50 km over this complex topography, the model reproduces reasonably well the remotely sensed observations of the snow cover duration. Similar to observations, modelled atmospheric BC concentrations in the central Himalayas reach a minimum during the monsoon and a maximum during the post- and pre-monsoon periods. Comparing the simulated BC concentrations in the snow with observations is more challenging because of their high spatial variability and complex vertical distribution. We simulated spring BC concentrations in surface snow varying from tens to hundreds of μg kg−1, higher by one to two orders of magnitude than those observed in ice cores extracted from central Himalayan glaciers at high elevations (>6000 m a.s.l.), but typical for seasonal snow cover sampled in middle elevation regions (<6000 m a.s.l.). In these areas, we estimate that both wet and dry BC depositions affect the Himalayan snow cover reducing its annual duration by 1 to 8 days. In our simulations, the effect of anthropogenic BC deposition on snow is quite low over the Tibetan Plateau because this area is only sparsely snow covered. However, the impact becomes larger along the entire Hindu-Kush, Karakorum and Himalayan mountain ranges. In these regions, BC in snow induces an increase of the net short-wave radiation at the surface with an annual mean of 1 to 3 W m−2 leading to a localised warming between 0.05 and 0.3 °C.

scholarly journals Seasonal variation of ozone and black carbon observed at Paknajol, an urban site in the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (16) ◽  
pp. 22527-22566 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Putero ◽  
P. Cristofanelli ◽  
A. Marinoni ◽  
B. Adhikary ◽  
R. Duchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Black Carbon ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Number Concentration ◽  
Urban Site ◽  
Kathmandu Valley ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Aerosol Number Concentration ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The Kathmandu Valley in South Asia is considered as one of the global "hot spots" in terms of urban air pollution. It is facing severe air quality problems as a result of rapid urbanization and land use change, socioeconomic transformation and high population growth. In this paper, we present the first full year (February 2013–January 2014) analysis of simultaneous measurements of two short-lived climate forcers/pollutants (SLCF/P), i.e. ozone (O3) and equivalent black carbon (hereinafter noted as BC) and aerosol number concentration at Paknajol, in the center of the Kathmandu metropolitan city. The diurnal behavior of equivalent black carbon (BC) and aerosol number concentration indicated that local pollution sources represent the major contributions to air pollution in this city. In addition to photochemistry, the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and wind play important roles in determining O3 variability, as suggested by the analysis of seasonal diurnal cycle and correlation with meteorological parameters and aerosol properties. Especially during pre-monsoon, high values of O3 were found during the afternoon/evening; this could be related to mixing and entrainment processes between upper residual layers and the PBL. The high O3 concentrations, in particular during pre-monsoon, appeared well related to the impact of major open vegetation fires occurring at regional scale. On a synoptic-scale perspective, westerly and regional atmospheric circulations appeared to be especially conducive for the occurrence of the high BC and O3 values. The very high values of SLCF/P, detected during the whole measurement period, indicated persisting adverse air quality conditions, dangerous for the health of over 3 million residents of the Kathmandu Valley, and the environment. Consequently, all of this information may be useful for implementing control measures to mitigate the occurrence of acute pollution levels in the Kathmandu Valley and surrounding area.

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