All Possible Wars? Toward a Consensus View of the Future Security Environment, 2001-2025

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam J. Tangredi
Keyword(s):  
Security Environment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Consensus View

Military Force Planning and National Security

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mackubin T. Owens
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Planning ◽  
National Security ◽  
Emerging Technologies ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Military Policy ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Force Structure ◽  
The Future ◽  
Force Planning

One component of military policy in particular lies at the very crossroads of strategic planning and structural arenas of policy. This is force planning, the interactive, intertemporal art intended to ensure that deficiencies in today’s force structure are being corrected while preparing for a future that may resemble the present or differ from it in unexpected ways. While force planners must think about what the future security environment might look like, what technologies might be available, and how future forces might leverage these emerging technologies to meet the challenges of a future security environment, they must always be cognizant of domestic structural factors. This chapter argues that a force planner must always be guided by a coherent strategic logic. Structural factors can never be eliminated, but a strong strategic rationale can minimize them.

INTEGRATING CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES ‒ NECESSARY ACTION TO INCREASE EFFECTIVENESS OF MILITARY ACTIONS

2021 ◽  
Vol 79 (2) ◽  
pp. 122-132
Author(s):  
Ionuţ CIORANU ◽  
Ion CHIORCEA
Keyword(s):  
Synergistic Action ◽  
Capability Development ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Efficient Integration ◽  
Development Processes ◽  
Lost Time ◽  
Uncertain Future

In the increasingly uncertain future conditions, because the lost time cannot be recovered, the only one within reach remains the future. Thus, defence planning is about planning for an uncertain future, about reducing the level of uncertainty, or about increasing the level of tolerance for uncertainty. Therefore, we consider that it is time to move on to prospective planning, to the management components reprioritization, with an emphasis on foresight, especially as we observe the security environment new specifics, in order to choose, develop and maintain those capabilities to meet current and future challenges. In this article we will analyze all these aspects, in an attempt to highlight the fact that the efficient integration of those elements, which lead to obtaining and maintaining optimal capabilities, must represent a synergistic action in order to increase the effectiveness of military actions.

The future of African security

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Emerson ◽  
Hussein Solomon
Keyword(s):  
Security System ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Viable Option ◽  
Global Security ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Unstable States

Africa is a security environment fraught with many dangers, but one too that presents great opportunities for addressing the most pressing global—and not just African—challenges. With more than its share of fragile, unstable states, impoverished societies, and endemic conflict, the continent was once seen almost exclusively as an incubator of instability and insecurity; a venue for addressing rising challenges and an exporter of global security threats. But this is no longer the case. Africa, like everywhere else in the world, is becoming increasingly integrated into a globalized security system, whereby Africans are just as vulnerable to threats emanating from outside the continent as they are from home-grown ones. Thus, Africa—and what happens there—matters more than ever. Simply ignoring it and hoping for the best through a policy of containment and isolation is not a viable option in today’s globalized and interdependent world.

The Future Security Environment in the Middle East: Conflict, Stability, and Political Change

2004 ◽  
Vol 83 (5) ◽  
pp. 180 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Carl Brown ◽  
Nora Bensahel ◽  
Daniel L. Byman
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Political Change ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Middle East Conflict ◽  
The Future

Air power and the future battlespace

2009 ◽  
Vol 113 (1139) ◽  
pp. 21-33
Author(s):  
C. J. M. Goulter
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
Military Force ◽  
National Strategy ◽  
Full Spectrum ◽  
Air Power ◽  
Inappropriate Use ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Strategic Direction ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Cold War

The aim of this paper is to consider the role of air power in the future, within the wider security environment and across the full spectrum of conflict. The key is to make some reasonable assumptions about the future strategic environment for the next ten to fifteen years, extrapolating from our experience since the end of the cold war and our existing knowledge of potential state threats and substate threats and challenges. One of our failings since the end of the cold war has been to focus on the operational level of war at the expense of thinking hard about national strategy. The formulation of national strategy is supposed to be directed by government, but if that government fails to provide strategic direction, as it has done over recent years, the result is short-termist perspectives, and a ‘hand to mouth’ approach to crisis management. This has been reinforced further by financial constraint and the electoral cycle. Ideally, a strategic perspective helps us not only to set our current age in a much wider context, thus preventing or making us less inclined to ‘knee-jerk’ reactions to single events, but it also assists in the making of correct judgements about the nature of a conflict or scenario, thus enabling us to apply the appropriate type of tool (air power or otherwise). History is littered with instances of the inappropriate use of military force, and air power is no exception, and we cannot afford nugatory manpower and material expenditure. The challenge is, therefore, enormous: to meet current commitments, while preparing for future possibilities.

scholarly journals EDITORIAL

2012 ◽  
pp. 9-10
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Security System ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
Defence Budget ◽  
Imple Mentation ◽  
The Future ◽  
Defence Strategy ◽  
The Republic

You are looking at this year’s second issue which is dedicated to the Slovenian national security system, the role of the armed forces within it, and their future. The authors of this issue primarily come from the areas of the military and defence. It may be a coincidence, but the Slovenian national security system, the Slovenian Armed Forces and their future seem to play a less important role in times of solving other more challenging issues and situations. The need for rationality, economy, innovativeness and the achievement of maximum possible impact with minimum resources used is understandable, yet the national security system, as an integral part of international security, may thus become very fragile and vulnerable. The French economist and statesman of the 17th century, Jean-Baptiste Colbert, believed that trade was the source of finance, while finance was the vital nerve of war. Is it possible to assume that the lack of trade, and thus finance, may lead to social unrest and, consequently, the destabilisation of the national security system? Constant cuts in the defence budget should not hinder thinking and writing about the future of the Slovenian national security system and its individual elements which include the defence system and the Slovenian Armed Forces. What are the challen- ges and opportunities? In the introduction, Lieutenant-General Ştefan Dănilă, Chief of the General Staff of the Romanian Armed Forces expresses his views on the Role and use of the armed forces in the future. His thoughts are published at the beginning of this issue to give readers the impression of how the future of the armed forces is viewed in the country about ten times larger than Slovenia. Pavel Vuk, Sašo Nacevski and Renata Vrtovšek address the Defence strategy in the hierarchy of strategic documents on national security of the Republic of Slovenia by carrying out a comparative analysis of defence strategies of six countries and pre- senting guidelines for the preparation of a new defence strategy of the Republic of Slovenia. Gregor Garb devotes his attention to the Role of financial resources in the imple- mentation of a modern security paradigm regarding defence in selected countries. He describes and compares guidelines for the funding of defence systems in five countries – the Republic of Slovenia and its neighbours. Ivan Žnidar acquaints readers with Transformation challenges to safety and security at Slovenian sea. He states that comprehensive approach, cooperation, coordination and integration of various services for safety at sea present some of the answers to the question of the rationalisation of the modern security environment. Boris Rutar presents the Human Terrain System in the case of Afghanistan. He informs readers of achievements and applicability as well as new opportunities for NATO members. Blažka Erznožnik writes about the Importance of security forces training for the stabilisation of Afghanistan: NATO literacy project and the role of the Slovenian Armed Forces. She believes that the elimination of illiteracy presents a perfectly obvious means of support that significantly contributes to the long-term stability of Afghanistan and exposes the social usefulness of the armed forces. To conclude, a country’s stability depends on its financial situation, which in turn affects its defence capability.

DESTABILIZING EUROPE: RUSSIA’S HYBRID WARFARE

2021 ◽  
pp. 5-29
Author(s):  
Borys Parakhonsky ◽  
Galina Yavorska
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International Security ◽  
The European Union ◽  
European Security ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

The European Union is in a political and security crisis. The crisis tends to become existential, which undermines the future of the EU as an integration project. The conflict of values between liberal democracy and authoritarianism is becoming an important factor in international security. Negative current trends in the international security environment increase risks for the EU. In its foreign policy the EU does not demonstrate the ability to speak with one voice. It does not support EU’s ambition to be a global international actor. Within the EU, centrifugal tendencies and Euroscepticism appear to be gaining ground. Among the destructive external and internal factors affecting European security, the hybrid threat posed by Moscow’s ambitious plans and aggressive actions is at the forefront. These actions are aimed at undermining democracies, international solidarity and security. Russia is systematically acting to destabilize the EU, using a set of means of destructive influence, trying to undermine European unity both externally and internally. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, operations in Syria and Libya, interference in domestic processes in the EU, etc., are exacerbating destructive trends in the European security environment. In this con- text, the EU faces the need to increase its resilience, as a tool to deter destructive actions of the Russian Federation and a means to mitigate their effect. The purpose of the article is to analyze the causes and consequences of Russia’s  hybrid influence against the EU, plus to identify the means of Russia’s destructive impact, such as the spread of misinformation, active special operations, energy pressure, etc. The article examines the imperatives of Russian foreign policy, the impact of the value crisis on the European project and its future, as well as obstacles to strategic dialogue between the EU and Russia. Europe returns to searching for its collective European identity, discussing revitalization of the global European narrative. Maintaining a system of liberal democratic values is a key precondition for the future of the EU in order to avoid the risk of disintegration of the European Union. Sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, its national security could be guaranteed only by full-fledged integration into the European political, economic and security space. Europe’s hesitations regarding the European perspective for Ukraine, which arise under pressure from the Kremlin and internal contradictions in the EU, negatively affect the security environment  in Europe.

The Future of Intelligence Outsourcing

2019 ◽  
pp. 194-224
Author(s):  
Damien Van Puyvelde
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Stable Pool ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
Essential Questions ◽  
Ebb And Flow

This chapter considers the outcome of the US government’s efforts to reform the accountability regime for intelligence contractors. The chapter shows that further efforts are and will be needed to continue fill accountability gaps and adapt the national intelligence effort to the security environment. To avoid past mistakes and provide greater coherence to this effort, adaptation should focus on three essential questions: What (not) to outsource? When to outsource? How to outsource? Answers to these questions emphasize the need for more coherent policies and planning in the domain of human resources, and in particular a more stable pool of government personnel to cope with the ebb and flow of intelligence requirements.

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