scholarly journals Short-Term Interest Rate Estimation by Filtering in a Model Linking Inflation, the Central Bank and Short-Term Interest Rates

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1152
Author(s):  
Flavia Antonacci ◽  
Cristina Costantini ◽  
Marco Papi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Numerical Procedure ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Market Values ◽  
Joint Evolution

We consider the model of Antonacci, Costantini, D’Ippoliti, Papi (arXiv:2010.05462 [q-fin.MF], 2020), which describes the joint evolution of inflation, the central bank interest rate, and the short-term interest rate. In the case when the diffusion coefficient does not depend on the central bank interest rate, we derive a semi-closed valuation formula for contingent derivatives, in particular for Zero Coupon Bonds (ZCBs). By using ZCB yields as observations, we implement the Kalman filter and obtain a dynamical estimate of the short-term interest rate. In turn, by this estimate, at each time step, we calibrate the model parameters under the risk-neutral measure and the coefficient of the risk premium. We compare the market values of German interest rate yields for several maturities with the corresponding values predicted by our model, from 2007 to 2015. The numerical results validate both our model and our numerical procedure.

scholarly journals The Pure Expectations Theory and Quarterly Interest Rate Premiums

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 161
Author(s):  
Samih Antoine Azar
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Sampling Error ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Sample Bias ◽  
Conditional Tests ◽  
The Difference

The expectations theory posits that the long interest rate is an average of expected short term interest rates with the possibility of the existence of a risk premium. This paper looks upon fourteen samples of investments for which the difference in maturity is three months. All yields are actual yields and are adjusted to have the same maturities as the short rate. The evidence is strong for the pure expectations theory which predicts that the risk premiums are zero. This should not be surprising because the premium that we are looking for is merely 4 basis points per quarter. The contribution of this paper, besides giving support to the pure expectations theory, is to lay out the fundamental and basic methodology that one should follow in order to study other investments similar to ours. Both unconditional and conditional tests are performed. Because of sampling error and small-sample bias the unconditional tests may be preferable. 

Großbritannien – ein europäischer Spielverderber? Das britische Opting-Out aus ökonomischer Sicht

1996 ◽  
Vol 45 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Nölling
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
European Central Bank ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Economic Reason ◽  
Opting Out ◽  
European Central ◽  
The Uk

AbstractWith the beginning of EMU there will be only one monetary policy with a single short term interest rate. In order for common monetary policy to be successful EMU member states have to react similarly to monetary signals from the European Central Bank (ECB). Because of its unique sensitivity to short term interest rates, this would not be the case for the UK. If, for example, the ECB would raise the short term interest rates by an amount which is appropriate for countries like France and Germany, the UK might sink into recession. This shows that besides political reasons there is also an economic reason for the UK’s opting-out from EMU.

scholarly journals CANDIDE et la monnaie

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-103
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Aubry ◽  
Pierre Duguay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Structure Equations

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

Determinants of Treasury-LIBOR Swap Spreads

2005 ◽  
Vol 08 (04) ◽  
pp. 687-705 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. K. Malhotra ◽  
Vivek Bhargava ◽  
Mukesh Chaudhry
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Interest Rate Volatility ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Swap Spreads

Using data from the Treasury versus London Interbank Offer Swap Rates (LIBOR) for October 1987 to June 1998, this paper examines the determinants of swap spreads in the Treasury-LIBOR interest rate swap market. This study hypothesizes Treasury-LIBOR swap spreads as a function of the Treasury rate of comparable maturity, the slope of the yield curve, the volatility of short-term interest rates, a proxy for default risk, and liquidity in the swap market. The study finds that, in the long-run, swap spreads are negatively related to the yield curve slope and liquidity in the swap market. We also find that swap spreads are positively related to the short-term interest rate volatility. In the short-run, swap market's response to higher default risk seems to be higher spread between the bid and offer rates.

scholarly journals Journal of the History of Economic Thought Preprints - Limits to Arbitrage and Interest Rates: A Debate Between Keynes, Hawtrey and Hicks

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy BRILLANT
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Thought ◽  
History Of Economic Thought ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Business Cycle

This paper deals with a debate between Hawtrey, Hicks and Keynes concerning the capacity of the central bank to influence the short-term and the long-term rates of interest. Both Hawtrey and Keynes considered the central bank’s ability to influence short-term rates of interest. However, they do not put the same emphasis on the study of the long-term rates of interest. According to Keynes, long-term rates are influenced by future expected short-term rates (1930, 1936), whereas for Hawtrey (1932, 1937, 1938), long-term rates are more dependent on the business cycle. Short-term rates do not have much effect on long-term rates according to Hawtrey. In 1939, Hicks enters the controversy, giving credit to both Hawtrey’s and Keynes’s theories, and also introducing limits to the operations of arbitrage. He thus presented a nuanced view.

scholarly journals Does the Interest Rate Form Business Cycle?

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-34
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad ◽  
Abul Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Rate Form ◽  
The Interest Rate

Dynamic structural behavior of depositor, bank and borrower and the role of banks in forming business cycle are investigated. We test the hypothesis that does banks behavior make oscillations in the economy through the interest rate. By dichotomizing banking activities into two markets of deposit and loan, we show that these two markets have non-synchronized structures, and this is why the money sector fluctuation starts. As a result, the fluctuation is transmitted to the real economy through saving and investment functions. Empirical results assert that in the USA, the banking system creates fluctuations in the money sector and real economy as well through short-term interest rates

scholarly journals ENTERPRISE FINANCING BY MEANS OF CORPORATE BONDS TOOLKIT

2017 ◽  
pp. 57-67
Author(s):  
Mykola Stetsko
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Corporate Bonds ◽  
Synthesis Method ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Corporate Bond ◽  
Systematic Risks

Introduction. In contrast to the markets of developed countries, forming characteristic risk premium investment bonds in emerging markets, is that the greatest effect on the risk premium on bonds in countries such factor provides market liquidity in general and specific securities in particular. The second most significant factor influencing the risk premium is the risk of changing interest rates. The risk of default of issuers in such countries is also quite high, but the component of creditworthiness is less significant factor in the combination of systematic risks. Due to low sovereign ratings of Ukraine, the credit ratings of bonds of all domestic issuers have a speculative level. Owing to this fact, all of them can be classified as highly risky and, accordingly, highly profitable (HighYield Bonds). Purpose. The aim of the article is to reduce deficits in the scientific and methodological provision of the use of corporate bonds instruments on the basis of determining the determinants of the premium for the risk of investing in them. Method (methodology). To achieve the goal and solve the problems, the following methods have been used: method of analysis and synthesis, method of comparison and generalization; method of empirical research and factor analysis; method of system approach and strategy. Results. The research of the determinants of the risk premium is important, first of all, from the point of view of substantiating the technologies of reducing the cost of enterprises to capital. The key causes of underdevelopment of the domestic corporate bond market have been determined. We have identified factors that influence the spread of profitability and the value of bonds. They are the risk of default of the issuer and the potential of the enterprise development (credit component); base interest rate and long-term interest rates on the financial market (interest rate component); liquidity of the capital market (component of liquidity); the level of inflation and the development of economic conditions; information risks. It has been determined that in order to reduce the risk of investments in corporate bonds, it is necessary to implement at the regulatory level a set of measures to reduce overhead costs and increase the reliability of investments. The introduction of a safety covenant system can be defrined as one of such measures.

Central bank transparency, inflation targeting and monetary policy: a panel data approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (6) ◽  
pp. 1159-1174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Caldas Montes ◽  
Cristiane Gea
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Bank Transparency ◽  
Policy Interest

Purpose The evidence concerning the effects of the inflation targeting (IT) regime as well as greater central bank transparency on monetary policy interest rates is not conclusive, and the following questions remain open. What is the effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of monetary policy interest rate? Does central bank transparency affect the level of the monetary policy interest rate and its volatility? Are these effects greater in developing countries? The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the literature by answering these questions. Hence, the paper analyzes the effects of IT and central bank transparency on monetary policy. Design/methodology/approach The analysis uses a sample of 48 countries (31 developing) comprising the period between 1998 and 2014. Based on panel data methodology, estimates are made for the full sample, and then for the sample of developing countries. Findings Countries that adopt the IT regime tend to have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. The effect of adopting IT on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is smaller in developing countries. Besides, countries with more transparent central banks have lower levels of monetary policy interest rates, as well as lower interest rate volatility. In turn, the effect of central bank transparency on both the level and volatility of the basic interest rate is greater in developing countries. Practical implications The study brings important practical implications regarding the influence of both the IT regime and central bank transparency on monetary policy. Originality/value Studies have sought to analyze whether IT and central bank transparency are effective to control inflation. However, few studies analyze the influence of IT and central bank transparency on interest rates. This study differs from the few existing studies since: the analysis is done not only for the effect of transparency on the level of the monetary policy interest rate, but also on its volatility; the central bank transparency index that is used has never been utilized in this sort of analysis; and the study uses panel data methodology, and compares the results between different samples.

Interest Rates and Business Returns

2007 ◽  
Vol 201 ◽  
pp. 4-7
Author(s):  
Martin Weale
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Rate Increase ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Current Level ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Past ◽  
Financial Options ◽  
Very High ◽  
Business Returns

The July interest rate increase has taken the Bank of England's Base Rate to the highest value for six years. In figure 1 we show the forward estimates for the nominal short-term interest rate taken from the Bank of England's yield curve tables for both government debt and liabilities of commercial banks. These are in effect market forecasts of the short-term rate produced in the past. The graph shows that the market has been taken somewhat by surprise by rising short-term interest rates. Two years ago the market was forecasting a rate of around 4 per cent per annum for July 2007. Nor were the probabilities the market gave to an interest rate of 5.75 per cent per annum very high. Twelve months ago the market in financial options implied that the chance of the rate exceeding 5.66 per cent per annum was only 15 per cent. Even in January of this year the chance of it reaching its current level or higher was put at less than 25 per cent. The National Institute cannot claim a substantially better record at forecasting interest rates. We normally use market expectations, as calculated from the yield curve, to provide exogenous forecasts as input into our model in the short term.

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