Modelling the Impact of Personality on Individual Performance Behavior with a Time-Varying Mixture of Monotonic Random Effects

Fixed effects models are often useful in longitudinal studies when the goal is to assess the impact of teacher or school characteristics on student learning. In this article, I introduce an alternative procedure: adaptive centering with random effects. I show that this procedure can replicate the fixed effects analysis while offering several comparative advantages: the incorporation into standard errors of multiple levels of clustering; the modeling of heterogeneity of treatment effects; the estimation of effects of treatments at multiple levels; and computational simplicity. After illustrating these ideas in a simple setting, the article formulates a general linear model with adaptive centering and random effects and derives efficient estimates and standard errors. The results apply to studies that have an arbitrary number of nested and cross-classified factors such as time, students, classrooms, schools, districts, or states.

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Collective or Individual? What Types of Tourism Reduce Economic Inequality in Peripheral Regions?

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13094898 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (9) ◽

pp. 4898

Author(s):

Andrzej Tucki ◽

Korneliusz Pylak

Keyword(s):

Peripheral Region ◽

Time Varying ◽

Tourism Impacts ◽

Economic Distress ◽

Regional Inequalities ◽

Local Agriculture ◽

Northeastern Poland ◽

Per Capita ◽

The Impact

Regional inequalities are a major concern for governments and policymakers. There is no doubt that tourism impacts the reduction of inequalities, but this impact is not entirely clear. We consider this ambiguity to be related to both the level of study and type of accommodation. In the present study, we examine the inequality level measured by the Gini coefficient in 108 municipalities of the peripheral region of northeastern Poland from 2009 to 2018. We employ a directional spillover index to measure the impact of two accommodation types on tax incomes per capita. The empirical results indicate that collective accommodation-based tourism only reduced inequality during the financial crisis, while individual accommodation-based tourism started to reduce inequality from 2014, when Russian sanctions hit local agriculture and businesses. These results indicate that the role of accommodation types is time-varying and evident in measuring economic distress during and after shocks.

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Modeling regional impacts and resilience to water service disruptions in urban economies

Environment and Planning B Urban Analytics and City Science ◽

10.1177/2399808321998703 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 239980832199870

Author(s):

Sheree A Pagsuyoin ◽

Joost R Santos

Keyword(s):

Case Studies ◽

Large Scale ◽

Urban Region ◽

Economic Losses ◽

Drought Severity ◽

Severe Drought ◽

Time Varying ◽

National Capital Region ◽

Economic Sectors ◽

The Impact

Water is a critical natural resource that sustains the productivity of many economic sectors, whether directly or indirectly. Climate change alongside rapid growth and development are a threat to water sustainability and regional productivity. In this paper, we develop an extension to the economic input-output model to assess the impact of water supply disruptions to regional economies. The model utilizes the inoperability variable, which measures the extent to which an infrastructure system or economic sector is unable to deliver its intended output. While the inoperability concept has been utilized in previous applications, this paper offers extensions that capture the time-varying nature of inoperability as the sectors recover from a disruptive event, such as drought. The model extension is capable of inserting inoperability adjustments within the drought timeline to capture time-varying likelihoods and severities, as well as the dependencies of various economic sectors on water. The model was applied to case studies of severe drought in two regions: (1) the state of Massachusetts (MA) and (2) the US National Capital Region (NCR). These regions were selected to contrast drought resilience between a mixed urban–rural region (MA) and a highly urban region (NCR). These regions also have comparable overall gross domestic products despite significant differences in the distribution and share of the economic sectors comprising each region. The results of the case studies indicate that in both regions, the utility and real estate sectors suffer the largest economic loss; nonetheless, results also identify region-specific sectors that incur significant losses. For the NCR, three sectors in the top 10 ranking of highest economic losses are government-related, whereas in the MA, four sectors in the top 10 are manufacturing sectors. Furthermore, the accommodation sector has also been included in the NCR case intuitively because of the high concentration of museums and famous landmarks. In contrast, the Wholesale Trade sector was among the sectors with the highest economic losses in the MA case study because of its large geographic size conducive for warehouses used as nodes for large-scale supply chain networks. Future modeling extensions could potentially include analysis of water demand and supply management strategies that can enhance regional resilience against droughts. Other regional case studies can also be pursued in future efforts to analyze various categories of drought severity beyond the case studies featured in this paper.

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Coenzyme Q10 supplementation for prophylaxis in adult patients with migraine—a meta-analysis

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2020-039358 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. e039358

Author(s):

Suhairul Sazali ◽

Salziyan Badrin ◽

Mohd Noor Norhayati ◽

Nur Suhaila Idris

Keyword(s):

Random Effects ◽

Coenzyme Q10 ◽

Migraine Headache ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Adult Patients ◽

Control Group ◽

Cochrane Central Register ◽

Statistical Heterogeneity ◽

Coq10 Supplementation ◽

The Impact

ObjectiveTo determine the effects of coenzyme Q10 (CoQ10) for reduction in the severity, frequency of migraine attacks and duration of headache in adult patients with migraine.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis.Data sourcesCochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and Psychological Information Database (PsycINFO) from inception till December 2019.Study selectionAll randomised control trials comparing CoQ10 with placebo or used as an adjunct treatment included in this meta-analysis. Cross-over designs and controlled clinical trials were excluded.Data synthesisHeterogeneity at face value by comparing populations, settings, interventions and outcomes were measured and statistical heterogeneity was assessed by means of the I2 statistic. The treatment effect for dichotomous outcomes were using risk ratios and risk difference, and for continuous outcomes, mean differences (MDs) or standardised mean difference; both with 95% CIs were used. Subgroup analyses were carried out for dosage of CoQ10 and if CoQ10 combined with another supplementation. Sensitivity analysis was used to investigate the impact risk of bias for sequence generation and allocation concealment of included studies.ResultsSix studies with a total of 371 participants were included in the meta-analysis. There is no statistically significant reduction in severity of migraine headache with CoQ10 supplementation. CoQ10 supplementation reduced the duration of headache attacks compared with the control group (MD: −0.19; 95% CI: −0.27 to −0.11; random effects; I2 statistic=0%; p<0.00001). CoQ10 usage reduced the frequency of migraine headache compared with the control group (MD: −1.52; 95% CI: −2.40 to −0.65; random effects; I2 statistic=0%; p<0.001).ConclusionCoQ10 appears to have beneficial effects in reducing duration and frequency of migraine attack.PROSPERO registration numberCRD42019126127.

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The Impact of Participation in PPP Projects on Total Factor Productivity of Listed Companies in China

Sustainability ◽

10.3390/su13147603 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (14) ◽

pp. 7603

Author(s):

Xiangdong Liu ◽

Guangxi Cao

Keyword(s):

Total Factor Productivity ◽

High Speed ◽

Operation Mode ◽

Listed Companies ◽

Financing Constraints ◽

Eastern Region ◽

Time Varying ◽

Factor Productivity ◽

The Impact ◽

China’S Economy

The key to transforming China’s economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development is to improve total factor productivity (TFP). Based on the panel data of China’s listed companies participating in PPP (Public–Private Partnerships) projects from 2010 to 2019, this paper constructs the time-varying DID method to test the impact of participation in PPP projects on the company’s TFP empirically, explore the mechanism of the effect of participation in PPP projects on the company’s TFP, and then conduct heterogeneous analysis from four perspectives: region, industry, ownership form, and operation mode. The empirical results show that participation in PPP projects can significantly promote the growth of the company’s TFP, which mainly comes from the promotion of the innovation level of listed companies and the alleviation of financing constraints by participating in PPP projects. In addition, participation in PPP projects has a significant impact on TFP of listed companies in the eastern region, listed companies in the secondary and tertiary industries, state-owned listed companies, and listed companies participating in PPP projects under the BOT mode.

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Has tourism driven house prices in Germany? Time-varying evidence since 1870

Tourism Economics ◽

10.1177/13548166211008832 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 135481662110088

Author(s):

Sefa Awaworyi Churchill ◽

John Inekwe ◽

Kris Ivanovski

Keyword(s):

World War Ii ◽

Historical Data ◽

House Prices ◽

Housing Prices ◽

Time Varying ◽

Data Set ◽

Time Series Modelling ◽

The Impact ◽

Tourism Flows ◽

Non Parametric

Using a historical data set and recent advances in non-parametric time series modelling, we investigate the nexus between tourism flows and house prices in Germany over nearly 150 years. We use time-varying non-parametric techniques given that historical data tend to exhibit abrupt changes and other forms of non-linearities. Our findings show evidence of a time-varying effect of tourism flows on house prices, although with mixed effects. The pre-World War II time-varying estimates of tourism show both positive and negative effects on house prices. While changes in tourism flows contribute to increasing housing prices over the post-1950 period, this is short-lived, and the effect declines until the mid-1990s. However, we find a positive and significant relationship after 2000, where the impact of tourism on house prices becomes more pronounced in recent years.

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Does the Opening of High-Speed Railway Lines Reduce the Carbon Intensity of China’s Resource-Based Cities?

Energies ◽

10.3390/en14154648 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (15) ◽

pp. 4648

Author(s):

Zhipeng Tang ◽

Ziao Mei ◽

Jialing Zou

Keyword(s):

High Speed ◽

National Average ◽

Carbon Intensity ◽

Time Varying ◽

Low Carbon ◽

High Speed Railway ◽

Different Types ◽

Endogenous Selection ◽

Mode Of Development ◽

The Impact

The carbon intensity of China’s resource-based cities (RBCs) is much higher than the national average due to their relatively intensive mode of development. Low carbon transformation of RBCs is an important way to achieve the goal of reaching the carbon emissions peak in 2030. Based on the panel data from 116 RBCs in China from 2003 to 2018, this study takes the opening of high-speed railway (HSR) lines as a quasi-experiment, using a time-varying difference-in-difference (DID) model to empirically evaluate the impact of an HSR line on reducing the carbon intensity of RBCs. The results show that the opening of an HSR line can reduce the carbon intensity of RBCs, and this was still true after considering the possibility of problems with endogenous selection bias and after applying the relevant robustness tests. The opening of an HSR line is found to have a significant reducing effect on the carbon intensity of different types of RBC, and the decline in the carbon intensity of coal-based cities is found to be the greatest. Promoting migration of RBCs with HSR lines is found to be an effective intermediary way of reducing their carbon intensity.

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Are operating room distractions, interruptions, and disruptions associated with performance and patient safety? A systematic review and meta-analysis

International Journal for Quality in Health Care ◽

10.1093/intqhc/mzab068 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ryan D McMullan ◽

Rachel Urwin ◽

Peter Gates ◽

Neroli Sunderland ◽

Johanna I Westbrook

Keyword(s):

Patient Safety ◽

Operating Room ◽

Random Effects ◽

Team Performance ◽

Operative Time ◽

Meta Analysis ◽

Individual Performance ◽

Negative Effects ◽

Total Operative Time ◽

Operative Duration

Abstract Background The operating room (OR) is a complex environment in which distractions, interruptions, and disruptions (DIDs) are frequent. Our aim was to synthesise research on the relationships between DIDs and (a) operative duration, (b) team performance, (c) individual performance, and (d) patient safety outcomes; in order to better understand how interventions can be designed to mitigate the negative effects of DIDs. Methods Electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO) and reference lists were systematically searched. Included studies were required to report quantitative outcomes of the association between DIDs and team performance, individual performance, and patient safety. Two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion, assessed study quality, and extracted data. A random effects meta-analysis was performed on a subset of studies reporting total operative time and DIDs. Results Twenty-seven studies were identified. The majority were prospective observational studies (n=15), of moderate quality (n=15). DIDs were often defined, measured, and interpreted differently in studies. DIDs were significantly associated with: extended operative duration (n=8), impaired team performance (n=6), self-reported errors by colleagues (n=1), surgical errors (n=1), increased risk and incidence of surgical site infection (n=4), and fewer patient safety checks (n=1). A random effects meta-analysis showed that the proportion of total operative time due to DIDs was 22.0% (95% CI 15.7-29.9). Conclusion DIDs in surgery are associated with a range of negative outcomes. However, significant knowledge gaps exist about the mechanisms that underlie these relationships, as well as the potential clinical and non-clinical benefits that DIDs may deliver. Available evidence indicates that interventions to reduce the negative effects of DIDs are warranted, but current evidence is not sufficient to make recommendations about potentially useful interventions.

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The Dynamic Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Log Prices in China: An Analysis Based on the TVP-VAR Model

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12040449 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (4) ◽

pp. 449

Author(s):

Chenlu Tao ◽

Gang Diao ◽

Baodong Cheng

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Structural Changes ◽

Raw Materials ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Control Measures ◽

Var Model ◽

Time Varying ◽

Wood Industry ◽

The Impact

China’s wood industry is vulnerable to the COVID-19 pandemic since wood raw materials and sales of products are dependent on the international market. This study seeks to explore the speed of log price recovery under different control measures, and to perhaps find a better way to respond to the pandemic. With the daily data, we utilized the time-varying parameter autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model, which can incorporate structural changes in emergencies into the model through time-varying parameters, to estimate the dynamic impact of the pandemic on log prices at different time points. We found that the impact of the pandemic on oil prices and Renminbi exchange rate is synchronized with the severity of the pandemic, and the ascending in the exchange rate would lead to an increase in log prices, while oil prices would not. Moreover, the impulse response in June converged faster than in February 2020. Thus, partial quarantine is effective. However, the pandemic’s impact on log prices is not consistent with changes of the pandemic. After the pandemic eased in June 2020, the impact of the pandemic on log prices remained increasing. This means that the COVID-19 pandemic has long-term influences on the wood industry, and the work resumption was not smooth, thus the imbalance between supply and demand should be resolved as soon as possible. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the development of the domestic wood market and realize a “dual circulation” strategy as the pandemic becomes a “new normal”.

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The time-varying effects of oil prices on oil–gas stock returns of the fragile five countries

Financial Innovation ◽

10.1186/s40854-020-00224-y ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Begüm Yurteri Kösedağlı ◽

Gül Huyugüzel Kışla ◽

A. Nazif Çatık

Keyword(s):

Stock Returns ◽

Positive Impact ◽

Structural Break ◽

Oil Prices ◽

Time Varying ◽

Asset Pricing Model ◽

Daily Data ◽

Structural Break Test ◽

The Impact ◽

Oil Gas

AbstractThis study analyzes oil price exposure of the oil–gas sector stock returns for the fragile five countries based on a multi-factor asset pricing model using daily data from 29 May 1996 to 27 January 2020. The endogenous structural break test suggests the presence of serious parameter instabilities due to fluctuations in the oil and stock markets over the period under study. Moreover, the time-varying estimates indicate that the oil–gas sectors of these countries are riskier than the overall stock market. The results further suggest that, except for Indonesia, oil prices have a positive impact on the sectoral returns of all markets, whereas the impact of the exchange rates on the oil–gas sector returns varies across time and countries.

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