1.5 To Stay Alive? AOSIS and the Long Term Temperature Goal in the Paris Agreement

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Benjamin ◽  
Adelle Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement

scholarly journals A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
Daniel Huppmann ◽  
Volker Krey ◽  
Keywan Riahi ◽  
Leon Clarke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Industrial System ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Near Term

<p>To understand how global warming can be kept well-below 2°C and even 1.5°C, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could transform in order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Such scenario are typically created with integrated assessment models that include a representation of the economy, and the energy, land-use, and industrial system. However, current climate change scenarios have a key weakness in that they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100 only. <br><br>This choice results in risky pathways that delay action and seemingly inevitably rely on large quantities of carbon-dioxide removal after mid-century. Here we propose a framework that more closely reflects the intentions of the UN Paris Agreement. It focusses on reaching a peak in global warming with either stabilisation or reversal thereafter. This approach provides a critical extension of the widely used Shared Socioecononomic Pathways (SSP) framework and reveals a more diverse picture: an inevitable transition period of aggressive near-term climate action to reach carbon neutrality can be followed by a variety of long-term states. It allows policymakers to explicitly consider near-term climate strategies in the context of intergenerational equity and long-term sustainability.</p>

scholarly journals The relationship between net GHG emissions and radiative forcing with an application to Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom M. L. Wigley
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Zero Point ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Global Warming Potentials ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement on climate; the main goal of which is to provide guidance on how “to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2”. Paraphrasing, Article 4.1 says that, to achieve this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG emissions fall to zero in the second half of this century. To aggregate net GHG emissions, 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used to convert non-CO2 emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. As a test case using methane, temperature projections using GWP-100 scaling are shown to be seriously in error. This throws doubt on the use of GWP-100 scaling to estimate net GHG emissions. An alternative method to determine the net-zero point for GHG emissions based on radiative forcing is derived. This shows that the net-zero point needs to be reached as early as 2036, much sooner than in the Article 4.1 window. Other scientific flaws in Article 4.1 that further undermine its purpose to guide efforts to achieve the Article 2 temperature targets are discussed.

scholarly journals The Paris Agreement: Historic Breakthrough or High Stakes Experiment?

Climate Law ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meinhard Doelle
Keyword(s):  
Kyoto Protocol ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Regime ◽  
Top Down ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Flexible Approach ◽  
Climate Negotiations ◽  
Loss And Damage ◽  
Self Differentiation

This article offers an overview of the two key outcomes of the 2015 Paris climate negotiations, the Paris cop decision, and the Paris Agreement. Collectively, they chart a new course for the un climate regime that started in earnest in Copenhagen in 2009. The Paris Agreement represents a path away from the top-down approach and rigid differentiation among parties reflected in the Kyoto Protocol, toward a bottom-up and flexible approach focused on collective long-term goals and principles. It represents an approach to reaching these long-term goals that is focused on self-differentiation, support, transparency, and review. The article highlights the key elements of the agreement reached in Paris, including its approach to mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, finance, transparency, and compliance.

Towards high-quality net-zero targets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
Andy Reisinger ◽  
Annette Cowie ◽  
Oliver Geden
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Special Report ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Goal

<p>With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 the world has decided that warming should be kept well below 2°C while pursuing a limit of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. The Paris Agreement also sets a net emissions reduction goal: in the second half of the century, the balance of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals should become net zero. Since 2018, in response to the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, a flurry of net zero target announcements has ensued. Many countries, cities, regions, companies, or other organisations have come forward with targets to reach net zero, or become carbon or climate neutral. These labels describe a wide variety of targets, and rarely detailed. Lack of transparency renders it impossible to understand their ultimate contribution towards the global goal. Here we present a set of key criteria that high-quality net zero targets should address. These nine criteria cover emissions, removals, timing, fairness and a long-term vision. Unless net zero targets provide clarity on these nine criteria, we may not know until it is too late whether the collective promise of net zero targets is adequate to meet the global goal of the Paris Agreement.</p>

scholarly journals The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2119) ◽  
pp. 20180066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dann Mitchell ◽  
Myles R. Allen ◽  
Jim W. Hall ◽  
Benito Muller ◽  
Lavanya Rajamani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Original Research ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
25Th Anniversary ◽  
Social Challenges ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Science Community ◽  
Warming World ◽  
The University

The much awaited and intensely negotiated Paris Agreement was adopted on 12 December 2015 by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The agreement set out a more ambitious long-term temperature goal than many had anticipated, implying more stringent emissions reductions that have been under-explored by the research community. By its very nature a multidisciplinary challenge, filling the knowledge gap requires not only climate scientists, but the whole Earth system science community, as well as economists, engineers, lawyers, philosophers, politicians, emergency planners and others to step up. To kick start cross-disciplinary discussions, the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute focused its 25th anniversary conference upon meeting the challenges of the Paris Agreement for science and society. This theme issue consists of review papers, opinion pieces and original research from some of the presentations within that meeting, covering a wide range of issues underpinning the Paris Agreement. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

scholarly journals Institutional “Paris Agreement Compatible” Mitigation Scenarios Evaluated Against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C Goal

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Brecha ◽  
Gaurav Ganti ◽  
Robin Lamboll ◽  
Zebedee Nicholls ◽  
Willion Hare ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
Private Companies ◽  
International Agencies ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
Nationally Determined Contributions ◽  
Short And Long Term

Abstract Since its adoption in 2015, governments, international agencies and private entities have increasingly recognized the implications of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C long-term temperature goal (LTTG) for greenhouse gas emissions reduction planning in both the near- and long-term. Governments have submitted or are preparing updates of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and are encouraged to submit long term low greenhouse gas development plans (Article 4 of the Agreement1), aimed at aligning short- and long-term strategies. The foundations on which country targets are based are guided, directly or indirectly, by a variety of sources of information judged to be authoritative, including scientific research institutes2, international agencies, or private companies. Importantly, such authoritative sources also affect planning and decision making by investors3 who aim to anticipate climate policies, and their decisions in turn can drive or hold back setting ambitious emissions-reduction targets.

Prospects for climate change in 2021

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Better Than

Significance US re-entry into the Paris Agreement will signal renewed climate engagement by Washington. Prospects for climate cooperation are better than they seemed a year ago, with net-zero targets being more widely adopted, alongside long-term ambition statements. Credibility will depend on substantial changes in near-term climate policies and the pursuit of ‘green recoveries’.

MECANISMO DE DESENVOLVIMENTO LIMPO (MDL) NO ESTADO DO MARANHÃO: POTENCIAL DA MATRIZ ELÉTRICA PARA NEGÓCIOS NO MERCADO DE CARBONO

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 118
Author(s):  
Carlos Alberto Lima Melo Junior ◽  
Teresa Cristina Rodrigues Dos Santos Franco ◽  
Jaiver Efren Jaimes Figueroa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Clean Development Mechanism ◽  
Wind Farms ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
The State ◽  
Ghg Emission ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Equivalent ◽  
Development Mechanism

<p>As Nações Unidas, desde 1972, vêm buscando solucionar o problema da mudança climática no planeta. Mais recentemente, em 2015, durante o “Acordo de Paris”, foram definidos objetivos de longo prazo para limitar as emissões de Gases do Efeito Estufa (GEEs). Para auxiliar os países integrantes da Convenção Quadro das Nações Unidas sobre Mudança do Clima (UNFCCC) no cumprimento dessas metas, foi criado o Mecanismo de Desenvolvimento Limpo (MDL). No trabalho apresentado, utilizou-se a chamada ACM0002, ferramenta do MDL, para estimar as reduções de  emissões de GEEs oportunizados por usinas eólicas que fazem parte da matriz elétrica Maranhense, bem como o potencial ainda a ser explorado com o crecimento da matriz até 2027. O valor estimado dessas reduções de emissões foi de 6,20 milhões de toneladas de dióxido de carbono equivalente. O estudo contribuiu com dados relevantes para o setor energético renovável, bem como para a gestão ambiental regional. Poderá, ainda,  auxiliar na implementação de novos projetos MDL no Estado do Maranhão.</p><p> </p><p><em>CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM) IN THE STATE OF MARANHÃO: POTENTIAL OF THE ELECTRIC MATRIX FOR BUSINESS IN THE CARBON MARKET</em></p><p>ABSTRACT</p><p>As a United Nations since 1972, it has been seeking to solve the problem of climate change on the planet. More recently, in 2015, during the “Paris Agreement”, long-term goals to limit green house gas (GHG) restrictions were considered. To assist the member countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) without meeting these goals, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) was created. In the work presented, the so-called ACM0002, a CDM tool, was used to estimate the GHG emission reductions provided by wind farms that are part of the Maranhense electrical matrix, as well as the potential yet to be explored with the matrix's growth until 2027. The estimated value of these use reductions was 6.20 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. The study contributed relevant data for the renewable energy sector as well as for regional environmental management. It also assisted in the implementation of new CDM projects in the state of Maranhão.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

Nature ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 573 (7774) ◽  
pp. 357-363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
Daniel Huppmann ◽  
Volker Krey ◽  
Keywan Riahi ◽  
Leon Clarke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement

scholarly journals Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (39) ◽  
pp. 10315-10323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Veerabhadran Ramanathan
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Cooling Trend ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Risk Categories ◽  
Current Risk ◽  
Dangerous Level

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO2, the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend.

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