scholarly journals Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (39) ◽  
pp. 10315-10323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Veerabhadran Ramanathan
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Cooling Trend ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Risk Categories ◽  
Current Risk ◽  
Dangerous Level

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO2, the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend.

scholarly journals A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
Daniel Huppmann ◽  
Volker Krey ◽  
Keywan Riahi ◽  
Leon Clarke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Industrial System ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Near Term

&lt;p&gt;To understand how global warming can be kept well-below 2&amp;#176;C and even 1.5&amp;#176;C, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could transform in order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Such scenario are typically created with integrated assessment models that include a representation of the economy, and the energy, land-use, and industrial system. However, current climate change scenarios have a key weakness in that they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100 only. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;This choice results in risky pathways that delay action and seemingly inevitably rely on large quantities of carbon-dioxide removal after mid-century. Here we propose a framework that more closely reflects the intentions of the UN Paris Agreement. It focusses on reaching a peak in global warming with either stabilisation or reversal thereafter. This approach provides a critical extension of the widely used Shared Socioecononomic Pathways (SSP) framework and reveals a more diverse picture: an inevitable transition period of aggressive near-term climate action to reach carbon neutrality can be followed by a variety of long-term states. It allows policymakers to explicitly consider near-term climate strategies in the context of intergenerational equity and long-term sustainability.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals A continued role of short-lived climate forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 977-993
Author(s):  
Marianne T. Lund ◽  
Borgar Aamaas ◽  
Camilla W. Stjern ◽  
Zbigniew Klimont ◽  
Terje K. Berntsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Impact ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Detailed Knowledge ◽  
Agriculture Waste ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Temperature Responses

Abstract. Mitigation of non-CO2 emissions plays a key role in meeting the Paris Agreement ambitions and sustainable development goals. Implementation of respective policies addressing these targets mainly occur at sectoral and regional levels, and designing efficient mitigation strategies therefore relies on detailed knowledge about the mix of emissions from individual sources and their subsequent climate impact. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of near- and long-term global temperature responses to emissions of CO2 and individual short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from 7 sectors and 13 regions – for both present-day emissions and their continued evolution as projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). We demonstrate the key role of CO2 in driving both near- and long-term warming and highlight the importance of mitigating methane emissions from agriculture, waste management, and energy production as the primary strategy to further limit near-term warming. Due to high current emissions of cooling SLCFs, policies targeting end-of-pipe energy sector emissions may result in net added warming unless accompanied by simultaneous methane and/or CO2 reductions. We find that SLCFs are projected to play a continued role in many regions, particularly those including low- to medium-income countries, under most of the SSPs considered here. East Asia, North America, and Europe will remain the largest contributors to total net warming until 2100, regardless of scenario, while South Asia and Africa south of the Sahara overtake Europe by the end of the century in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. Our dataset is made available in an accessible format, aimed also at decision makers, to support further assessment of the implications of policy implementation at the sectoral and regional scales.

Prospects for climate change in 2021

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Better Than

Significance US re-entry into the Paris Agreement will signal renewed climate engagement by Washington. Prospects for climate cooperation are better than they seemed a year ago, with net-zero targets being more widely adopted, alongside long-term ambition statements. Credibility will depend on substantial changes in near-term climate policies and the pursuit of ‘green recoveries’.

scholarly journals Implementasi Strategi Mitigasi Framework NIST untuk Sistem Informasi PMB Universitas AMIKOM Yogyakarta

Respati ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eli Pujastuti
Keyword(s):  
Human Error ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Internet Connection ◽  
High Category ◽  
A Value ◽  
Risk Categories

INTISASIUniversitas AMIKOM mengembangkan sistem yang membantu pelayanan pembayaran  registrasi mahasiswa baru bernama smart PMB. Pengguna smart PMB adalah panitia PMB seksi bendahara yang kurang lebih terdiri dari 5 orang karyawan. Anggota seksi bendahara tiap tahunnya bisa berubah. Penggunaan smart PMB mungkin akan menimbulkan kekeliruan. Hasil penelitian sebelumnya ditemukan bahwa adanya  temuan risiko sekaligus mitigasinya yaitu 1. Kategori risiko tinggi yaitu koneksi internet yang tiba-tiba hilang dan secara otomatis mengganggu operasional smart PMB, penanggulangan terhadap risiko tsb adalah dengan berfokus pada perbaikan infrastruktur jaringan internet dan cadangannya 2. Kategori risiko sedang yaitu komputer yang lambat, dan Human Error. Langkah penanggulangan untuk meminimalisir risiko tsb yaitu fokus pada penambahan hardware pendukung seperti UPS, Harddisk dan membuat SOP untuk meminimalisir human error. 3. Kategori risiko rendah yaitu Laporan yang tidak valid. Strategi mitigasi yang diambil adalah dengan berfokus pada perbaikan software smart PMB dan pembuatan aturan pada kasus tertentu. Penelitian ini bermaksud memberikan analisis setelah strategi mitigasi dan rekomendasi pada penelitian berikutnya diimplamentasikan. Hasil dari penelitian ini adalah dokumentasi implementasi dari perbaikan yang sudah dijalankan oleh staff PMB. Hasilnya temuan berhasil ditanggulangi oleh mitigasi bencana, seluruh rekomendasi dijalankan sesuai dengan temuan. Penilaian risiko tiap bagian menjadi berkurang, sudah tidak ada lagi kategori tinggi (high). Kegagalan operasional smart PMB menurun tingkat risikonya menjadi medium dengan nilai 21. Komputer yang lambat sebelumnya masuk dalam kategori tinggi, berubah menjadi kategori risiko rendah. Koneksi internet yang tiba-tiba hilang menjadi lebih stabil terbukti dengan menurunnya status kategori menjadi medium, sebelumnya tinggi. Human Error dari medium menjadi rendah dengan diadakannya pelatihan untuk staff, laporan yang tidak valid yang tadinya ada pada kategori rendah tetap ada pada kategori yang sama namun nilai risikonya menurun, yaitu sebelum implementasi  memiliki nilai 8 sekarang berubah menjadi 4. Kata kunci— Implementasi, framework NIST, manajemen risiko, sistem informasi ABSTRACTAMIKOM University developed a system that helps payment services for new student registrations called smart PMB. Smart PMB users are the PMB treasurer committee section which consists of more than 5 employees. Members of the treasury section each year can change. The use of smart PMB might cause errors. The results of previous studies found that the existence of risk findings as well as mitigation are: 1. High risk categories: internet connection that suddenly disappears and automatically disrupts smart PMB operations, the risk mitigation is by focusing on improving internet network infrastructure and its reserves 2. Medium risk categories : Slow computer, and Human Error. Countermeasures to minimize the risk are focused on adding supporting hardware such as UPS, hard disk and making SOPs to minimize human error. 3. Low risk category: invalid report. The mitigation strategy taken is to focus on improving Smart PMB software and making rules in certain cases. This Study aims to implement the previous research’s mitigation strategies and recommendations. The results of this study are documentation of the implementation of improvements that have been carried out by PMB staff. As a result the findings were successfully overcome by disaster mitigation, all recommendations were carried out in accordance with the findings. Assessment of the risk of each part is reduced, there is no longer a high category. Smart PMB's operational failure decreased its risk level to medium with a value of 21. Computers that were previously slow in the high category changed to low risk categories. An internet connection that suddenly disappeared became more stable as evidenced by the decline in category status to medium, previously high. Human Error from medium becomes low with training for staff, invalid reports that were in the low category still in the same category but the risk value decreases, ie before the implementation has a value of 8 it now changes to 4Kata kunci—  NIST, Implementation, Risk Manajemen, Information System

scholarly journals A continued role of Short-Lived Climate Forcers under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marianne T. Lund ◽  
Borgar Aamaas ◽  
Camilla W. Stjern ◽  
Zbigniew Klimont ◽  
Terje K. Berntsen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Impact ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Detailed Knowledge ◽  
Agriculture Waste ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Temperature Responses

Abstract. Mitigation of non-CO2 emissions plays a key role in meeting the Paris Agreement ambitions and Sustainable Development Goals. Implementation of respective policies addressing these targets mainly occur at sectoral and regional levels and designing efficient mitigation strategies therefore relies on detailed knowledge about the mix of emissions from individual sources and their subsequent climate impact. Here we present a comprehensive dataset of near- and long-term global temperature responses to emissions of CO2 and individual short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) from 7 sectors and 13 regions – for present-day emissions and their continued evolution as projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. We demonstrate the key role of CO2 in driving both near- and long-term warming, and restate the importance of mitigating methane emissions, from agriculture, waste management and energy productions, as the primary strategy to further limit near-term warming. Due to high current emissions of cooling SLCFs, policies targeting end-of-pipe energy sector emissions may result in net added warming unless accompanied by simultaneous methane and/or CO2 reductions. East Asia, North America and Europe remain the largest contributors to total net warming until 2100, regardless of scenario, while South Asia and Africa south of the Sahara overtakes Europe by the end of the century in SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5. We find that SLCFs will continue to play a role in many regions, particularly those including low- to medium-income countries, under most of the SSPs considered here. Our dataset is made available in an accessible format, aiming also at decision-makers, to support further studies into the implications of policy implementation at the sectoral and regional scales.

The foundations of peaceful coexistence after the war ... Mosul is a model

2019 ◽  
pp. 178
Author(s):  
Omar Hashim Thanon
Keyword(s):  
Ethnic Diversity ◽  
Psychological Consequences ◽  
Peaceful Coexistence ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Mass Displacement ◽  
The Common ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Post War ◽  
Common Destiny

Since peaceful coexistence reflects in its various aspects the concept of harmony between the members of the same society with their different national, religious and sectarian affiliations, as well as their attitudes and ideas, what brings together these are the common bonds such as land, interests and common destiny. But this coexistence is exposing for crises and instability and the theft of rights and other that destroy the communities with their different religious, national, sectarian, ethnic aspects, especially if these led to a crisis of fighting or war, which produces only destruction and mass displacement, ttherefore, the process of bridging the gap between the different parts of society in the post-war phase through a set of requirements that serve as the basis for the promotion of peaceful coexistence within the same country to consolidate civil and community peace in order to create a general framework and a coherent basis to reconstruct the community again.      Hence the premise of the research by asking about the extent of the possibility and ability of the community of religious and ethnic diversity, which has been exposed to these crises, which aimed at this diversity, basically to be able to rise and re-integrate within the same country and thus achieve civil and community peace, and Mosul is an example for that, the negative effects of the war and the accomplices of many criminal acts have given rise to hatred and fear for all, leading to the loss of livelihoods, which in the long term may have devastating social and psychological consequences.        To clarify all of this, the title of the first topic was a review of the concept and origin of peaceful coexistence. While the second topic dealt with the requirements of peaceful coexistence and social integration in Mosul, the last topic has identified the most important challenges facing the processes of coexistence and integration in Mosul. All this in order to paint a better future for the conductor at all levels in the near term at the very least to achieve the values of this peaceful coexistence, especially in the post-war period.

Model for assigning security objects to a specific risk category in the field of fire safety

2020 ◽  
Vol 90 ◽  
pp. 19-31
Author(s):  
D. V. Zobkov ◽  
◽  
A. A. Poroshin ◽  
A. A. Kondashov ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Adverse Effects ◽  
Fire Safety ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Fire Hazard ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Acceptable Risk ◽  
Individual Object ◽  
Safety Requirements ◽  
Risk Categories

Introduction. A mathematical model is presented for assigning protection objects to certain risk categories in the field of fire safety. The model is based on the concepts of the probability of adverse effects of fires causing harm (damage) of various extent and severity to the life or health of citizens, and the acceptable risk of harm (damage) from fires. Goals and objectives. The purpose of the study is to develop the procedure for assigning protection objects to a certain category of risk of harm (damage) based on estimates of the probability of fires with the corresponding severity consequences, to determine the acceptable level of risk of harm (damage) due to the fires, to calculate and develop numerical values of criteria for assigning objects of protection to the appropriate risk categories. Methods. The boundaries of the intervals corresponding to certain risk categories are determined by dividing the logarithmic scale of severity of adverse effects of fires into equal segments. Classification methods are used to assign objects of protection to a specific risk category. Results and discussion. Based on the level of severity of potential negative consequences of a fire, risk categories were determined for groups of protection objects that are homogeneous by type of economic activity and by functional fire hazard classes. The risk category for each individual object of protection is proposed to be determined using the so-called index of "identification of a controlled person" within a group of objects that are homogeneous by type of economic activity and class of functional fire hazard. Depending on the risk category, the periodicity of planned control and supervision measures in relation to the specific object of protection under consideration is determined, taking into account its socio-economic characteristics and the state of compliance with fire safety requirements by the controlled person. Conclusions. To develop criteria for classifying protection objects that are homogeneous in terms of economic activity and functional fire hazard classes, the probability of negative consequences of fires, that are causing harm (damage) of various extent and severity to the life or health of citizens, and the acceptable risk of causing harm (damage) as a result of fires, is used. The risk category for each individual object of protection is determined taking into account socio-economic characteristics of the object that affect the level of ensuring its fire safety, as well as the criteriaof integrity of the subordinate person that characterize the probability of non-compliance with mandatory fire safety requirements at the object of protection. Calculations are made and numerical values of criteria for assigning protection objects that are homogeneous in terms of economic activity and functional fire hazard classes to a certain category of risk are proposed. Key words: object of protection, probability of fire, acceptable level of risk, risk category, dangerous factor of fire, death and injury of people.

Is 3 years adequate for tracking completely occluded coiled aneurysms?

2020 ◽  
Vol 133 (3) ◽  
pp. 758-764
Author(s):  
Eung Koo Yeon ◽  
Young Dae Cho ◽  
Dong Hyun Yoo ◽  
Su Hwan Lee ◽  
Hyun-Seung Kang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
De Novo ◽  
Careful Monitoring ◽  
Surveillance Period ◽  
Radiological Data ◽  
De Novo Aneurysm ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Annual Risk

OBJECTIVEThe authors conducted a study to ascertain the long-term durability of coiled aneurysms completely occluded at 36 months’ follow-up given the potential for delayed recanalization.METHODSIn this retrospective review, the authors examined 299 patients with 339 aneurysms, all shown to be completely occluded at 36 months on follow-up images obtained between 2011 and 2013. Medical records and radiological data acquired during the extended monitoring period (mean 74.3 ± 22.5 months) were retrieved, and the authors analyzed the incidence of (including mean annual risk) and risk factors for delayed recanalization.RESULTSA total of 5 coiled aneurysms (1.5%) occluded completely at 36 months showed recanalization (0.46% per aneurysm-year) during the long-term surveillance period (1081.9 aneurysm-years), 2 surfacing within 60 months and 3 developing thereafter. Four showed minor recanalization, with only one instance of major recanalization. The latter involved the posterior communicating artery as an apparent de novo lesion, arising at the neck of a firmly coiled sac, and was unrelated to coil compaction or growth. Additional embolization was undertaken. In a multivariate analysis, a second embolization for a recurrent aneurysm (HR = 22.088, p = 0.003) independently correlated with delayed recanalization.CONCLUSIONSAlmost all coiled aneurysms (98.5%) showing complete occlusion at 36 months postembolization proved to be stable during extended observation. However, recurrent aneurysms were predisposed to delayed recanalization. Given the low probability yet seriousness of delayed recanalization and the possibility of de novo aneurysm formation, careful monitoring may be still considered in this setting but at less frequent intervals beyond 36 months.

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