scholarly journals A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
Daniel Huppmann ◽  
Volker Krey ◽  
Keywan Riahi ◽  
Leon Clarke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Industrial System ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Near Term

<p>To understand how global warming can be kept well-below 2°C and even 1.5°C, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could transform in order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Such scenario are typically created with integrated assessment models that include a representation of the economy, and the energy, land-use, and industrial system. However, current climate change scenarios have a key weakness in that they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100 only. <br><br>This choice results in risky pathways that delay action and seemingly inevitably rely on large quantities of carbon-dioxide removal after mid-century. Here we propose a framework that more closely reflects the intentions of the UN Paris Agreement. It focusses on reaching a peak in global warming with either stabilisation or reversal thereafter. This approach provides a critical extension of the widely used Shared Socioecononomic Pathways (SSP) framework and reveals a more diverse picture: an inevitable transition period of aggressive near-term climate action to reach carbon neutrality can be followed by a variety of long-term states. It allows policymakers to explicitly consider near-term climate strategies in the context of intergenerational equity and long-term sustainability.</p>

scholarly journals Pathways of China's PM2.5 air quality 2015–2060 in the context of carbon neutrality

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Cheng ◽  
Dan Tong ◽  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Yu Lei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Air Pollution Control ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Clean Air ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Who Guideline

ABSTRACT Clean air policies in China have substantially reduced PM2.5 air pollution in recent years, primarily by curbing end-of-pipe emissions. However, further reaching the WHO guideline may instead depend upon the air quality co-benefits of ambitious climate action. Here, we assess pathways of Chinese PM2.5 air quality from 2015 to 2060 under a combination of scenarios which link Global and China's climate mitigation pathways (i.e. global 2°C- and 1.5°C-pathways, NDC pledges, and carbon neutrality goals) to local clean air policies. We find that China can achieve both its near-term climate goals (peak emissions) and PM2.5 air quality annual standard (35 μg/m3) by 2030 by fulfilling its NDC pledges and continuing air pollution control policies. However, the benefits of end-of-pipe control reductions are mostly exhausted by 2030, and reducing PM2.5 exposure of the majority of the Chinese population to below 10 μg/m3 by 2060 will likely require more ambitious climate mitigation efforts such as China's carbon neutrality goals and global 1.5°C-pathways. Our results thus highlight that China's carbon neutrality goals will play a critical role in reducing air pollution exposure to the WHO guideline and protecting public health.

scholarly journals The relationship between net GHG emissions and radiative forcing with an application to Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom M. L. Wigley
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Zero Point ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Global Warming Potentials ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement on climate; the main goal of which is to provide guidance on how “to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2”. Paraphrasing, Article 4.1 says that, to achieve this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG emissions fall to zero in the second half of this century. To aggregate net GHG emissions, 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used to convert non-CO2 emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. As a test case using methane, temperature projections using GWP-100 scaling are shown to be seriously in error. This throws doubt on the use of GWP-100 scaling to estimate net GHG emissions. An alternative method to determine the net-zero point for GHG emissions based on radiative forcing is derived. This shows that the net-zero point needs to be reached as early as 2036, much sooner than in the Article 4.1 window. Other scientific flaws in Article 4.1 that further undermine its purpose to guide efforts to achieve the Article 2 temperature targets are discussed.

Towards high-quality net-zero targets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
Andy Reisinger ◽  
Annette Cowie ◽  
Oliver Geden
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Special Report ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Goal

<p>With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 the world has decided that warming should be kept well below 2°C while pursuing a limit of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. The Paris Agreement also sets a net emissions reduction goal: in the second half of the century, the balance of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals should become net zero. Since 2018, in response to the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, a flurry of net zero target announcements has ensued. Many countries, cities, regions, companies, or other organisations have come forward with targets to reach net zero, or become carbon or climate neutral. These labels describe a wide variety of targets, and rarely detailed. Lack of transparency renders it impossible to understand their ultimate contribution towards the global goal. Here we present a set of key criteria that high-quality net zero targets should address. These nine criteria cover emissions, removals, timing, fairness and a long-term vision. Unless net zero targets provide clarity on these nine criteria, we may not know until it is too late whether the collective promise of net zero targets is adequate to meet the global goal of the Paris Agreement.</p>

THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE: A PSYCHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

2007 ◽  
Vol 35 (7) ◽  
pp. 889-902 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce E. Tonn ◽  
Fred Conrad
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Older Individuals ◽  
Exogenous Variables ◽  
Web Based ◽  
Psychological Analysis ◽  
The Future ◽  
Endogenous Variables ◽  
Near Term

In this paper, the relationships between three endogenous variables – thinking about, worrying about, and imagining the future – and the relationships between these variables and a rich set of exogenous variables were explored. Data were collected via a web-based survey using a sample of convenience; 572 individuals from 24 different countries completed the survey. The results suggest that respondents think about the near-term future frequently and about the long-term future not at all frequently. Additionally, individuals who are better able to imagine the future think about the future more than those who cannot imagine the future well. Those who worry more about the future tend to think more about the future than those who do not. Older individuals think about the future less than younger individuals even though age is not correlated with worrying about or imagining the future. Christians think more about the future than others although they also tend to worry less about the future. Secularists are less able to imagine the future. Individuals who are worried about major issues like global warming tend to think more about the future. The results suggest that training individuals to better imagine potential futures could give them more confidence to think more and worry less about their futures.

Systematic scenario process to support analysis of long-term emissions scenarios and transformation pathways for the IPCC WG3 6th Assessment Report

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward A. Byers ◽  
Keywan Riahi ◽  
Elmar Kriegler ◽  
Volker Krey ◽  
Roberto Schaeffer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Source Software ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Systematic Assessment ◽  
Climate Assessment ◽  
Transformation Pathways ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

<p>The assessment of long-term greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and societal transformation pathways is a key component of the IPCC Working Group 3 (WG3) on the Mitigation of Climate Change. A large scientific community, typically using integrated assessment models and econometric frameworks, supports this assessment in understanding both near-term actions and long-term policy responses and goals related to mitigating global warming. WG3 must systematically assess hundreds of scenarios from the literature to gain an in-depth understanding of long-term emissions pathways, across all sectors, leading to various levels of global warming. Systematic assessment and understanding the climate outcomes of each emissions scenario, requires coordinated processes which have developed over consecutive IPCC assessments. Here, we give an overview of the processes involved in the systematic assessment of long-term mitigation pathways as used in recent IPCC Assessments<sup>1</sup> and being further developed for the IPCC 6<sup>th</sup> Assessment Report (AR6). The presentation will explain how modelling teams can submit scenarios to AR6 and invite feedback to the process.</p><p>Following discussions amongst IPCC Lead Authors to define the scope of scenarios desired and variables requested, a call for scenarios to support AR6 was launched in September 2019. Modelling teams have registered and submitted scenarios through Autumn 2019 using a new and secure online submission portal, from which authorised Lead Authors can interrogate the scenarios interactively.</p><p>This analysis is underpinned by the open-source software pyam, a Python package specifically designed for analysis and visualisation of integrated assessment scenarios<sup>2</sup>. Submitted scenarios are automatically checked for errors and processed using a new climate assessment pipeline. The climate assessment involves infilling and harmonization<sup>3</sup> of emissions data, then the scenarios are processed through Simple Climate Models, using the OpenSCM framework<sup>4</sup>, to give probabilistic climate implications for each scenario – atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing and global mean temperature. The climate assessment accounts for updated climate sensitivity estimates from CMIP6 and WG1,s scenarios are categorized according to climate outcomes and distinguish between timing and levels of net-negative emissions, emissions peak and temperature overshoot. Scenarios are also categorized by other indicators, for consistent use across WG3 chapters, such as: population and GDP; Primary and Final energy use; and shares of renewables, bioenergy and fossil fuels.</p><p>The automated framework also facilitates bolt-on analyses, such as estimating the population impacted by biophysical climate impacts<sup>5</sup>, and estimates of avoided damages with the social cost of carbon<sup>6</sup>.</p><p>Upon publication of the WG3 AR6 report, all scenario data used in the WG3 Assessment will be publicly available on a Scenario Explorer, an online tool for interrogating and visualizing the data that supports the report. In combination, this framework brings new levels of consistency, transparency and reproducibility to the assessment of scenarios in IPCC WG3 and will be a key resource for the climate community in understanding the main drivers of different transformation pathways.</p><ol><li>Huppmman et al 2018, Nature Climate Change</li> <li>Gidden and Huppmann, 2019, Journal of Open Source Software</li> <li>Gidden et al 2018 Environ. Model. Softw</li> <li>Nicholls et al 2020</li> <li>Byers et al 2018 Environmental Research Letters</li> <li>Ricke et al 2018 Nature Climate Change</li> </ol>

US backsliding will drag on global climate progress

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Federal Support ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Climate Action

Subject The Paris Agreement and US withdrawal. Significance President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change on June 1, prompting criticism from around the world. While current pledges are unlikely to change and the agreement will not see flight or withdrawal by other countries, US withdrawal imperils the ability of the agreement’s structure to accelerate climate action to a scale necessary to meet its objective of limiting global warming to below 2 degrees centigrade by 2100. Impacts The US private sector and sub-national polities will increase their climate action, though the loss of federal support will still be felt. A future US administration could re-enter the agreement, but substantial momentum will be lost diplomatically in the intervening years. Calls for greater adaptation -- rather than mitigation -- funds from climate-vulnerable states will grow more strident.

scholarly journals Zero-emission public transit could be a catalyst for decarbonization of the transportation and power sectors

Clean Energy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 492-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Y Ku ◽  
Andrew de Souza ◽  
Jordan McRobie ◽  
Jimmy X Li ◽  
Jaimie Levin
Keyword(s):  
Public Transit ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Private Capital ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Electric Bus ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
Financing Risk ◽  
Zero Carbon ◽  
Near Term

Abstract Reaching carbon neutrality will require investment on an unprecedented scale. Here we suggest that there is an underappreciated opportunity to leverage public funds to mobilize private capital in support of these aims. We illustrate the point using examples from public transit. Although the fuelling energy requirements of public fleets represent a small fraction of the eventual total demand across the transportation sector, the predictable and long-term nature of the refuelling profiles can reduce the financing risk. With appropriate coordination across the energy supply chain, near-term investments can be used to support scale-up of wider efforts to decarbonize the transportation sector and electric grid. We present two examples from California—one related to overnight power for battery electric bus charging and the other related to medium-scale supply chains for zero-carbon hydrogen production—to illustrate how this might be achieved.

Prospects for climate change in 2021

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Better Than

Significance US re-entry into the Paris Agreement will signal renewed climate engagement by Washington. Prospects for climate cooperation are better than they seemed a year ago, with net-zero targets being more widely adopted, alongside long-term ambition statements. Credibility will depend on substantial changes in near-term climate policies and the pursuit of ‘green recoveries’.

scholarly journals Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (39) ◽  
pp. 10315-10323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Veerabhadran Ramanathan
Keyword(s):  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Risk Category ◽  
Cooling Trend ◽  
Low Probability ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Risk Categories ◽  
Current Risk ◽  
Dangerous Level

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (∼50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (<2050) and in the long term (2100): the carbon neutral (CN) lever to achieve zero net emissions of CO2, the super pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend.

scholarly journals The relationship between net GHG emissions and radiative forcing with an application to Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement

2021 ◽  
Vol 169 (1-2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom M. L. Wigley
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Zero Point ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Scaling Method ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Global Warming Potentials ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractThis paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement on climate; the main goal of which is to provide guidance on how “to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2”. Paraphrasing, Article 4.1 says that, to achieve this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG emissions fall to zero in the second half of this century. To aggregate net GHG emissions, 100-year global warming potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used to convert non-CO2 emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. The GWP-scaling method is tested using methane as an example. The temperature projections using GWP-100 scaling are shown to be seriously in error. This throws doubt on the use of GWP-100 scaling to estimate net GHG emissions. An alternative method to determine the net-zero point for GHG emissions based on radiative forcing is derived, where the net-zero point is identified with the maximum of GHG forcing. This shows that, to meet the Article 2 warming goal, the net-zero point for GHG emissions needs to be reached as early as 2036, much sooner than in the Article 4.1 window. Other scientific problems in Article 4.1 that further undermine its purpose to guide efforts to achieve the Article 2 temperature targets are discussed.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document