Prospects for climate change in 2021

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Better Than

Significance US re-entry into the Paris Agreement will signal renewed climate engagement by Washington. Prospects for climate cooperation are better than they seemed a year ago, with net-zero targets being more widely adopted, alongside long-term ambition statements. Credibility will depend on substantial changes in near-term climate policies and the pursuit of ‘green recoveries’.

The future will be both better and worse than we imagine

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamsin Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Policies ◽  
The Future ◽  
Business As Usual ◽  
Better Than

<p>There is no longer such a thing as business as usual. We have put some climate policies in place, taking actions, making progress. Research shows the predicted warming in the year 2100 taking into account those policies: around 3.3 degrees of warming. And we also have pledges for what we intend to do, including those for the Paris Agreement. These would take us a little lower, to 3 degrees. You can watch how these predictions change, over the coming months and years.</p><p>The future, then, is already better than we imagined it would be, but still worse than we imagine it could be. And each new policy and pledge will bring the future further down the scale, towards the Paris Agreement targets of 2 and 1.5 degrees. There would still be serious consequences at this level of warming. But climate change is not something that is simply won or lost. It is an arc that we can choose to bend toward justice. We will all be both heroes <em>and</em> villains, and wake up the next day and be heroes again. We will create our story, word by word, deed by deed.</p>

Pandemic will not stop international climate action

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Business Cases ◽  
International Climate ◽  
Us Presidential Election ◽  
Global Carbon

Significance This has deprived social movements of opportunities to mobilise public opinion. However, a recent surge of major economies and businesses setting long-term ‘net zero’ emission targets offers hope that 2019 might have been the peak year for global carbon emissions. Impacts Campaigners will bring more litigation cases to press for more ambitious national policies. Carbon border pricing will become more attractive in higher-ambition jurisdictions, but it will also trigger geopolitical pushback. Efficiency investments in energy and transport will slow as demand falls and capital becomes tighter, affecting their business cases. A confirmed Biden win in yesterday’s US presidential election would see US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement reversed.

Impacts of Paris Agreement on Russian economy

2018 ◽  
pp. 76-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. A. Makarov ◽  
C. Henry ◽  
V. P. Sergey
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Climate Policies

The paper applies multiregional CGE Economic Policy Projection and Analysis (EPPA) model to analyze major risks the Paris Agreement on climate change adopted in 2015 brings to Russia. The authors come to the conclusion that if parties of the Agreement meet their targets that were set for 2030 it may lead to the decrease of average annual GDP growth rates by 0.2-0.3 p. p. Stricter climate policies beyond this year would bring GDP growth rates reduction in2035-2050 by additional 0.5 p. p. If Russia doesn’t ratify Paris Agreement, these losses may increase. In order to mitigate these risks, diversification of Russian economy is required.

Demobilisation will be a long-term challenge in Libya

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Many ◽  
Financial Arrangements

Significance Although a ceasefire has been in place since October 2020, very little has been done during that time to integrate or demobilise the many armed forces and groups that exist across the country. The obstacles are formidable. Impacts Significant demobilisation and reintegration will not happen in the near term. Local security will continue to rest on fragile political and financial arrangements between armed groups and governing authorities. The current high levels of oil and gas revenue will tend to discourage unrest.

Multiteam systems as integrated networks for engaging ambidexterity as dynamic capabilities

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin P. Dean
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Capabilities ◽  
Dynamic Environment ◽  
Task Demands ◽  
Organizational Level ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Integrated Networks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Systems Model ◽  
Near Term

PurposeThis inquiry aims to determine the features and mechanisms that specially enable a multiteam system (MTS) to develop ambidexterity that can deal effectively with rapid changes in dynamic environments. The MTS is an emerging organizational unit comprised of tightly integrated networks of teams that may originate from one or more firms. The inquiry also considered how an MTS can engage those features and mechanisms to maximize ambidexterity as dynamic capabilities for increased innovation and long-term adaptation under complex, volatile conditions.Design/methodology/approachThis conceptual inquiry integrates the emerging research on MTSs with theory and studies relating to ambidexterity and dynamic capabilities. This inquiry focuses on the attributes and linkages that specially characterize an MTS. It analyzes these to determine the key mechanisms and interactions enabling and engaging ambidexterity at MTS unit level.FindingsMTSs can engage powerful mechanisms for ambidexterity functioning as dynamic capabilities at meso-organizational level. The attributes and linkages that distinguish an MTS from other units enable it to deal effectively and efficiently with near-term task demands by simultaneously balancing the essential tasks of exploration and exploitation, and by being able to rapidly adapt by reconfiguring taskwork and reallocating resources as required for sustainable innovation and long-term success within a dynamic environment.Practical implicationsThis inquiry provides valuable insights for designing MTSs that are equipped with selected teams, flexible memberships, specialized skills and permeable interfaces. Autonomy for an MTS allows the unit to span internal and external organizational boundaries to gain access to new discoveries and to exchange information and material resources for increased innovation. Ambidexterity as dynamic capabilities facilitates exploitation of current resources by efficiently reconfiguring taskwork and reallocating materials for adaptation and competitive advantage.Originality/valueThis inquiry appears to represent the most integrative effort to examine the underexplored potential of MTSs for developing and engaging ambidexterity functioning as dynamic capabilities. The inquiry appears to be a first effort at articulating a concept of MTS ambidexterity distinct from organizational ambidexterity. The analysis synthesizes a systems model that guides organizational leaders and opens new opportunities for future research.

scholarly journals Climate Change in the Western Balkans and Eu Green Deal – Coherence, Challenges, and Perspective

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandi Knez ◽  
Snežana Štrbac ◽  
Iztok Podbregar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The State ◽  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Average Annual Temperature ◽  
Level Of Economic Development ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Background: The European Commission (EC), based on the European Green Deal (2019) and the Recovery plan for Europe (2021) envisages investing 30% of the budget in climate-related programs, projects, and initiatives, which clearly shows Europe's commitment to becoming the first climate-neutral region by 2050. Activities are also planned for countries that are not members of the European Union (EU), which requires complex changes in the field of legislation, strategic planning, implementation, and monitoring. To successfully plan short-term and long-term activities on these grounds, it is necessary to have a realistic picture of the state of climate change in each country - as they spill over into the entire region of Europe. The main objective of this paper is to present the state of climate change in six Western Balkans countries, of which only Croatia is a member of the EU, for the needs of planning activities and initial harmonization with the EU plan to reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 2050. Results: The main results of the research show that in all countries of the region, the average annual temperature increased by 1.2 °C compared to 1970, with stabilization and the beginning of the decline which can be expected around 2040. The main reasons for climate change in the region are: industry, energy, and heating sector based on coal exploitation, low energy efficiency, etc. Conclusions: It can be concluded that all countries of the Western Balkans have adopted (or are in the process of adopting) the necessary regulations and strategies towards climate change mitigation, but the implementation of specific activities is at a low level. The reasons for this most often lies in the insufficient commitment of decision-makers to make significant changes in the field of climate change transition (lower level of economic development, lack of investment, preservation of social peace). Finally, the paper provides an overview of climate change by country, scenario analysis, and policy recommendations.

scholarly journals A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
Daniel Huppmann ◽  
Volker Krey ◽  
Keywan Riahi ◽  
Leon Clarke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Industrial System ◽  
Carbon Neutrality ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Near Term

<p>To understand how global warming can be kept well-below 2°C and even 1.5°C, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could transform in order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Such scenario are typically created with integrated assessment models that include a representation of the economy, and the energy, land-use, and industrial system. However, current climate change scenarios have a key weakness in that they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100 only. <br><br>This choice results in risky pathways that delay action and seemingly inevitably rely on large quantities of carbon-dioxide removal after mid-century. Here we propose a framework that more closely reflects the intentions of the UN Paris Agreement. It focusses on reaching a peak in global warming with either stabilisation or reversal thereafter. This approach provides a critical extension of the widely used Shared Socioecononomic Pathways (SSP) framework and reveals a more diverse picture: an inevitable transition period of aggressive near-term climate action to reach carbon neutrality can be followed by a variety of long-term states. It allows policymakers to explicitly consider near-term climate strategies in the context of intergenerational equity and long-term sustainability.</p>

scholarly journals The relationship between net GHG emissions and radiative forcing with an application to Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tom M. L. Wigley
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Zero Point ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Test Case ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
Global Warming Potentials ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This paper provides an assessment of Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement on climate; the main goal of which is to provide guidance on how “to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2”. Paraphrasing, Article 4.1 says that, to achieve this end, we should decrease greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions so that net anthropogenic GHG emissions fall to zero in the second half of this century. To aggregate net GHG emissions, 100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWP-100) are commonly used to convert non-CO2 emissions to equivalent CO2 emissions. As a test case using methane, temperature projections using GWP-100 scaling are shown to be seriously in error. This throws doubt on the use of GWP-100 scaling to estimate net GHG emissions. An alternative method to determine the net-zero point for GHG emissions based on radiative forcing is derived. This shows that the net-zero point needs to be reached as early as 2036, much sooner than in the Article 4.1 window. Other scientific flaws in Article 4.1 that further undermine its purpose to guide efforts to achieve the Article 2 temperature targets are discussed.

Towards high-quality net-zero targets

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joeri Rogelj ◽  
Andy Reisinger ◽  
Annette Cowie ◽  
Oliver Geden
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Emissions Reduction ◽  
Special Report ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Net Zero ◽  
The World ◽  
Global Goal

<p>With the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015 the world has decided that warming should be kept well below 2°C while pursuing a limit of 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. The Paris Agreement also sets a net emissions reduction goal: in the second half of the century, the balance of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals should become net zero. Since 2018, in response to the publication of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, a flurry of net zero target announcements has ensued. Many countries, cities, regions, companies, or other organisations have come forward with targets to reach net zero, or become carbon or climate neutral. These labels describe a wide variety of targets, and rarely detailed. Lack of transparency renders it impossible to understand their ultimate contribution towards the global goal. Here we present a set of key criteria that high-quality net zero targets should address. These nine criteria cover emissions, removals, timing, fairness and a long-term vision. Unless net zero targets provide clarity on these nine criteria, we may not know until it is too late whether the collective promise of net zero targets is adequate to meet the global goal of the Paris Agreement.</p>

LNG use will be crucial to nations’ energy transitions

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Market Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Growth ◽  
Net Zero

Significance LNG is cleaner than most fossil fuels but still incompatible with net zero emissions. India, China and other Asian economies see LNG imports as a ready and economically viable means of displacing coal and oil use. Natural gas and then LNG demand will eventually peak as the energy transition accelerates over the next 20 years. Impacts LNG market growth will embed fossil fuel use and infrastructure in developing economies’ energy mixes. Recent market volatility and record spot LNG prices may reverse the trend of greater reliance on spot transactions than long-term contracts. Although the greenhouse gas (GHG) benefits of LNG use in transport are far from clear, it will gain market share in the next few years. LNG project developers will seek to cut GHG emissions from their projects to prolong LNG's attractiveness in the energy transition.

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