Wheat Price Volatility Over 140 Years: An Analysis of Daily Price Ranges

Abstract From the 1980s until the early 2000s, many developing governments adopted market liberalization policies due to relatively low agricultural prices and the implementation of structural programs by the IMF. Yet, a paradigm shift occurred with the emergence of the 2008 food crisis, which directed food-deficit governmental bodies to protectionist regimes supporting higher food self-sufficiency. Despite the importance of food autarky to shield domestic food markets, its effects have never been fully discussed in a formalized econometric framework. This article analyses wheat price volatility transmissions from global to local markets in 10 wheat importing countries, identifying the causality with conditional correlation functions (CCF), the degree of volatility transmissions using generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models with the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) specification and potential determinants with a panel analysis. The main findings reveal that a significant unidirectional Granger causality runs from international wheat price to local retail flour prices for wheat importing countries with an approximate five-month lag, the volatility correlations from international to local markets were strengthened around the period of the 2007–08 food crisis and a higher self-sufficiency rate plays a role in alleviating volatility passthroughs from international markets. This evidence that increasing the SSR of an agricultural commodity is effective in isolating the domestic market is valuable for policymakers in food importing countries. The primary beneficiaries of implementing the policy measure are risk-averse producers and consumers because their utility or welfare improves as the price volatility of foodstuffs declines.

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Predicting Stock Market Performance

Journal of Individual Differences ◽

10.1027/1614-0001/a000330 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 1-10

Author(s):

Thomas Plieger ◽

Thomas Grünhage ◽

Éilish Duke ◽

Martin Reuter

Keyword(s):

Stock Market ◽

Risk Taking ◽

Life Stress ◽

Price Volatility ◽

Individual Characteristics ◽

Self Report ◽

Financial Behavior ◽

Market Simulation ◽

Stock Market Performance ◽

Risk Taking Behavior

Abstract. Gender and personality traits influence risk proneness in the context of financial decisions. However, most studies on this topic have relied on either self-report data or on artificial measures of financial risk-taking behavior. Our study aimed to identify relevant trading behaviors and personal characteristics related to trading success. N = 108 Caucasians took part in a three-week stock market simulation paradigm, in which they traded shares of eight fictional companies that differed in issue price, volatility, and outcome. Participants also completed questionnaires measuring personality, risk-taking behavior, and life stress. Our model showed that being male and scoring high on self-directedness led to more risky financial behavior, which in turn positively predicted success in the stock market simulation. The total model explained 39% of the variance in trading success, indicating a role for other factors in influencing trading behavior. Future studies should try to enrich our model to get a more accurate impression of the associations between individual characteristics and financially successful behavior in context of stock trading.

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The effect of price volatility on decision making

PsycEXTRA Dataset ◽

10.1037/e722292011-084 ◽

2007 ◽

Author(s):

Dante Pirouz

Keyword(s):

Decision Making ◽

Price Volatility

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Can Bitcoin be the Future of Digital Payments?

Journal of Business and Economics ◽

10.15341/jbe(2155-7950)/06.10.2019/001 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (6) ◽

pp. 489-500

Author(s):

Andrea Valente ◽

◽

David Atkinson ◽

Keyword(s):

Price Volatility ◽

Global Scale ◽

White Paper ◽

Innovative Technology ◽

Policy Makers ◽

The Future ◽

Key Drivers ◽

Digital Payments ◽

Robust Regulation ◽

Stakeholder Acceptance

This study aimed to investigate the conditions in which Bitcoin has developed as a leading cryptocurrency and, according to Nakamoto (2008), could become an instrument for everyday payments around the world. In comparison to other digital payment solutions, Bitcoin is based on a peer-to-peer electronic cash system using “the blockchain”. This innovative technology allows for decentralised storage and movement of currency in a fully anonymous way, introducing advantageous methods for encrypted security and faster transactions (Hagiu & Beach, 2014). Scepticism regards Bitcoin’s foundation, energy consumption and price volatility, however, did not take long to arise (Holthaus, 2017). Ten years from its white paper release, Bitcoin is further supported by the same drivers which could sustain its growth as the future of digital payments (Russo, 2018). In order to investigate the key drivers and feasibility of acceptance, a London based survey was used to understand the desirability of Bitcoin as a day-to-day tool for digital payments. Additionally, this research analysed Bitcoin’s stakeholders and forecast drivers of sustainability for its application to become the future of the payment industry. A space which relies on policies that involve multiple layers of society, governments, regulators and tech-firms, all on a global scale. The findings confirmed how the increasing lack of trust of political and financial institutions, coupled with the increasing cases of data-breaches by tech-firms, encouraged over 70% of respondents to consider more decentralised and anonymous methods for their day-to-day actions; like payments. Policy makers need to cope with societies increasingly separating politically but gathering together digitally (LBS, 2017). For Bitcoin to truly establish itself as a global digital payment solution, key stakeholder acceptance must converge alongside the introduction of more robust regulation.

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Solar Renewable Energy Credit Price Volatility and Investment Returns: Have Policies Stranded Capital Investment?

Commonwealth ◽

10.15367/com.v19i1.135 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Somayeh Youssefi ◽

Patrick L. Gurian

Keyword(s):

Solar Energy ◽

Capital Investment ◽

Supply And Demand ◽

Price Volatility ◽

The United States ◽

Investment Model ◽

Capital Investments ◽

Demand Model ◽

Market Prices ◽

Investment Returns

Pennsylvania is one of a number of U.S. states that provide incentives for the generation of electricity by solar energy through Solar Renewal Energy Credits (SRECs). This article develops a return on investment model for solar energy generation in the PJM (mid-Atlantic) region of the United States. Model results indicate that SREC values of roughly $150 are needed for residential scale systems to break even over a 25-year project period at 3% interest. Market prices for SRECs in Pennsylvania have been well below this range from late 2011 through the first half of 2016, indicating that previous capital investments in solar generation have been stranded as a result of steep declines in the value of SRECs. A simple conceptual supply and demand model is developed to explain the sharp decline in market prices for SRECs. Also discussed is a possible policy remedy that would add unsold SRECs in a given year to the SREC quota for the subsequent year.

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