scholarly journals The Effects of Unstable Macroeconomic Indicators on Stock Price Behavior of Banking Sector in the Nigerian Stock Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-78
Author(s):  
Ibrahim Bello Abdullahi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Price Behavior ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Long Run

The research aimed to investigate the stock price behavior of banking sector in response to unstable macroeconomic variables in the Nigerian stock market. The research employed ex-post facto research design, and the data were subjected to Autoregressive Distributed Lag method of analysis to examine both the short and long run of the studied variables between 2009 and 2018. The findings reveal significant negative effects of interest rate and foreign reserves on the stock price behavior of the banking sector in the long run. Meanwhile, the inflation rate has a significant positive influence on stock price behavior. Then, the exchange rate is not statistically significant in influencing stock price behavior in the Nigerian stock market. It can be concluded that the stock price behavior of banking sector is influenced by foreign external reserve, interest rate, and inflation rate. It is recommended that the monetary policy rate should be reduced to decrease the cost of borrowing and enhance liquidity level in the stock market.

scholarly journals Effects of Exchange Rate and Inflation Rate on Stock Market Returns Volatility in India.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nenavath Sre ◽  
Suresh Naik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Abstract The paper investigates the effect of exchange and inflation rate on stock market returns in India. The study uses monthly, quarterly and annual inflation and exchange rate data obtained from the RBI and market returns computed from the Indian share market index from January, 2000 to June, 2020.The paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration technique and the error correction parametization of the ARDL model for investigating the effect on Indian Stock markets. The GARCH and its corresponding Error Correction Model (ECM) were used to explore the long- and short-run relationship between the India Stock market returns, inflation, and exchange rate. The paper shows that there exists a long term relationship but there is no short-run relationship between Indian market returns and inflation. But, there is periodicity of inflation monthly considerable long run and short-run relationship between them existed. The outcome also illustrates a significant short-run relationship between NSE market returns and exchange rate. The variables were tested for short run and it was significantly shown the positive effects on the stock market returns and making it a desirable attribute of which investors can take advantage of. This is due to the establishment of long-run effect of inflation and exchange rate on stock market returns.

Fisher Effect in Pakistan

1999 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Rational Expectation ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Complete Replacement ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fisher Hypothesis ◽  
Savings Rate

This paper attempts to test the validity of the Fisher Hypothesis (FH) in Pakistan by investigating the long-run relationship between interest rate and inflation rate applying cointegration analysis. The FH has serious implications for debtors and creditors in an inflation prone economy since inflationary expectations influence nominal interest rate. Moreover, the effectiveness of monetary policy and efficiency in banking sector has direct bearing on the long-run relationship between nominal interest rate and expected inflation rate. Inflationary expectation has been modeled using adaptive and rational expectation approaches and sensitivity of the result to expectation formation has been compared. The paper finds the long-run relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation rate and accepts the partial Fisher Hypothesis. This result suggests that interest rate does not fully cover or accurately anticipate inflation, which implies that bank deposits deteriorate over time. The result further implies that monetary policy may not be effective in such a situation and households’ savings rate may suffer a decline. The acceptance of partial Fisher Hypothesis in case of rational expectation suggests that the rate of interest does not reflect all relevant information and real interest rate does not exhibit random walk behaviour, which is indicative of inefficiency in banking sector. The analysis clearly shows the failure of interest rate as a hedge against inflation and as a predictor of inflation. Therefore, the paper recommends innovation and financial engineering for better alternative especially in banking. The paper also recommends the growth and encouragement of equity market vis-à-vis prevalent debt-biased market. Finally, the paper advocates the complete replacement of traditional credit-based banking by more efficient trade-based banking in Pakistan.

scholarly journals The Role of Gold Prices and Interest Rate in Stock Index: Insights from Vietnam by Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 178
Author(s):  
Le Thi Minh Huong ◽  
Phan Minh Trung
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study aimed to determine the impact of domestic gold prices, interest rates in the stock market index (VNI) in Vietnam for the period of January 2009 to December 2018. This study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to check the association of Independent variable gold prices and the interest rate on the dependent variable stock market index. The results show a close correlation together in the long-run. The Vietnam stock index is adversely affected by fluctuations in the credit market in the short-run. We observed that domestic gold prices and interest rates have one-way causal relations to the stock price index. Similarly, interest rates were causal for gold prices and still not yet had any particular direction. The adjustment in the short-run moves the long-run equilibrium, although the change is quite slow.

scholarly journals Do Interbank Interest Rates Matter for Stock Prices at Nepal Stock Exchange?

Pravaha ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-170
Author(s):  
Rajesh Gurung
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Bound Test

This study examines an auto-regressive distributed lag (ADRL) modeling approach to develop the relationship between the stock price and interest rate in the context of Nepal, using the monthly data for the period from July 1996 to January 2019. NEPSE Index in Nepal Stock Exchange Limited is used for the stock prices and interbank interest rate released in Quarterly Economic Bulletin of Nepal Rastra Bank is used for the interest rate. The bound test for co-integration and estimated negative coefficient of long-run regression results justified by the Error Correction Mechanisms (ECM) establishes a valid negative long-run association between the INTEREST and PRICE. This suggests important considerations for policies towards an interest rate stabilization for the stock price stability and further development of the stock market in Nepal.

scholarly journals How Does Stock Prices Respond to Various Macroeconomic Factors? A Case Study of Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 25-30
Author(s):  
Ayaz Khan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run

Over the time everything flourished, at the same token the interrelationship among the stock market prices, returns and macroeconomic factors got attendance of the researchers in the field of finance and economics around the world. In this respect current study is an attempt to investigate the response of various macroeconomic factors (GDP, Money Supply, inflation, exchange rate and Size of firm) toward stock market prices in case of Karachi stock exchange over a period of 1971 to 2012. The study utilizes Autoregressive Distributed lag model (ARDL) technique. The results shows that in long run each factor significantly contribute to the stock price while in shot run some factors were significant while some were not but the error correction term shows significant convergence toward equilibrium. The findings of study suggest that for smoothness of stock market the current factors must be targeted.

scholarly journals Impacts of Macroeconomy on Stock Market: Evidence from Pakistan

2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 140-146
Author(s):  
Farid Ullah ◽  
Ijaz Hussain ◽  
Abdur Rauf
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Association ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Span ◽  
Long Run

Stock market is a place where the securities of listed companies are traded and this can be affected by both macroeconomic and non-macroeconomic factors. The impacts of macroeconomic factors on stock market of Pakistan are investigated in the current study. For this purpose monthly data covering the period from January 2008 to December 2012 is used in this study while taking the three most important macroeconomic variables, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Inflation. Using the more advance Bound Testing Approach, a very strong long run cointegration is found amongst the variables taken for the study. In the long span of time, the results suggest that both Exchange Rate and Interest Rate have negative association with stock market of Pakistan while the Inflation Rate does not create such a condition that affect the stock market of Pakistan. Same results are found for the shorter version of time.

Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Prices in Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-65
Author(s):  
Bhim Prasad Panta
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run

Background: Stock market plays a crucial role in the financial system of a country. It can be viewed as a channel through which resources are properly channelized. It enables the governments and industry to raise long-term capital for financing new projects. The stock markets of developing economies are likely to be sensitive to various macro-economic factors such as GDP, imports, exports, exchange rates etc., when there is high demand on financial products, as a constituent of financial market, ultimately stock market needs to develop. Many factors can be a signal to stock market participants to expect a higher or lower return when investing in stock and one of these factors are macroeconomic variables and thus, macro-economic variables tend to effect on stock market development. Objective: This study examines the linkage between stock market prices (NEPSE index) and five macro-economic variables, namely; real GDP, broad money supply, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate using ARDL model and to explain the behavior of the Nepal Stock Exchange Index. Methods: The ECM which is delivered from ARDL model through simple linear transformation to integrate short run adjustments with long run equilibrium without losing long run information. The analysis has been done by using 25 years' annual data from 1994 to 2019. Findings: The result suggests that the fluctuation of Nepse Index in long run is strongly associated with broad money supply, interest rate, inflation, and exchange rate. Conclusion: Though Nepalese stock market is in primitive stage, broad money supply, interest rate, inflation and exchange rate are major factors affecting stock market price of Nepal. So, policies and strategies should be made and directed taking these in to consideration. Implication: The findings of research can be helpful to understand the behavior of Nepalese stock market and develop policies for market stabilization.

scholarly journals Determinants of Insurance Penetration in West African Countries: A Panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 350
Author(s):  
Odunayo Olarewaju ◽  
Thabiso Msomi
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
West African ◽  
Education Sector ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Insurance Penetration ◽  
The Government

This study analyses the long- and short-term dynamics of the determinants of insurance penetration for the period 1999Q1 to 2019Q4 in 15 West African countries. The panel auto regressive distributed lag model was used on the quarterly data gathered. A cointegrating and short-run momentous connection was discovered between insurance penetration along with the independent variables, which were education, productivity, dependency, inflation and income. The error correction term’s significance and negative sign demonstrate that all variables are heading towards long-run equilibrium at a moderate speed of 56.4%. This further affirms that education, productivity, dependency, inflation and income determine insurance penetration in West Africa in the long run. In addition, the short-run causality revealed that all the pairs of regressors could jointly cause insurance penetration. The findings of this study recommend that the economy-wide policies by the government and the regulators of insurance markets in these economies should be informed by these significant factors. The restructuring of the education sector to ensure finance-related modules cut across every faculty in the higher education sector is also recommended. Furthermore, Bancassurance is also recommended to boost the easy penetration of the insurance sector using the relationship with the banking sector as a pathway.

Value and Growth Stock Price Behavior during Stock Market Declines

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 41-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Folkinshteyn ◽  
Gulser Meric ◽  
Ilhan Meric
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Behavior

scholarly journals Factors Affecting the Performance of Kuwait Stock Market

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Ebrahim Merza ◽  
Sayed-Abbas Almusawi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Insurance Sector

<p>This paper aims at finding the effective factors that influence three sectors in Kuwait stock exchange market (KSE) in addition to the whole stock market. The three sectors are banking, real estate and insurance sectors. The paper measures KSE performance through the average share prices calculated on a quarterly basis starting from 2005 until first quarter of 2015. It is found that each sector behaves differently towards macroeconomic variables. The most important determinants for the KSE overall market performance were found to be gold price and the deposits rate. Individually, the banking sector is influenced by consumer price index, interest rate on loans, oil price and gold price. The insurance sector is influenced by money supply, residential real estate price and oil price. The real estate sector is influenced by the exchange rate with respect to US dollars, interest rate on loans, oil price and gold price.</p>

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