A Mathematical Modelling System for Flood Forecasting

1984 ◽  
Vol 15 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 305-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Jønch-Clausen ◽  
J. Chr. Refsgaard
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modelling ◽  
Real Time ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Reservoir Operations ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Damodar River ◽  
Modelling System

In this paper comprehensive simulation models are presented which can forecast the streamflow in real time at various points in river systems and provide a tool for identifying improvements of the reservoir operations during flood situations while taking into consideration the conditions downstream. The mathematical modelling has involved rainfall-runoff predictions as well as flood routing. The application of the modelling system to a part of the 22,000 square kilometres Damodar River Catchment located in Bihar and West Bengal in India, is described.

scholarly journals A stochastic space-time rainfall forecasting system for real time flow forecasting II: Application of SHETRAN and ARNO rainfall runoff models to the Brue catchment

2000 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 617-626 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Mellor ◽  
J. Sheffield ◽  
P. E. O’Connell ◽  
A. V. Metcalfe
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Flood Warning ◽  
Distributed Modelling ◽  
Time Flow ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Modelling System

Abstract. Key issues involved in converting MTB ensemble forecasts of rainfall into ensemble forecasts of runoff are addressed. The physically-based distributed modelling system, SHETRAN, is parameterised for the Brue catchment, and used to assess the impact of averaging spatially variable MTB rainfall inputs on the accuracy of simulated runoff response. Averaging is found to have little impact for wet antecedent conditions and to lead to some underestimation of peak discharge under dry catchment conditions. The simpler ARNO modelling system is also parameterised for the Brue and SHETRAN and ARNO calibration and validation results are found to be similar. Ensemble forecasts of runoff generated using both SHETRAN and the simpler ARNO modelling system are compared. The ensemble is more spread out with the SHETRAN model, and a likely explanation is that the ARNO model introduces too much smoothing. Nevertheless, the forecasting performance of the simpler model could be adequate for flood warning purposes. Keywords: SHETRAN, ARNO, HYREX, rainfall-runoff model, Brue, real-time flow forecasting

Modifications of rainfall runoff and decision finding models for on-line simulation in real time control

1999 ◽  
Vol 39 (9) ◽  
pp. 201-207
Author(s):  
Andreas Cassar ◽  
Hans-Reinhard Verworn
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Urban Drainage ◽  
Rain Event ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Real Time Control ◽  
Design Storm ◽  
Time Control ◽  
Timing Data ◽  
On Line ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model

Most of the existing rainfall runoff models for urban drainage systems have been designed for off-line calculations. With a design storm or a historical rain event and the model system the rainfall runoff processes are simulated, the faster the better. Since very recently, hydrodynamic models have been considered to be much too slow for real time applications. However, with the computing power of today - and even more so of tomorrow - very complex and detailed models may be run on-line and in real time. While the algorithms basically remain the same as for off-line simulations, problems concerning timing, data management and inter process communication have to be identified and solved. This paper describes the upgrading of the existing hydrodynamic rainfall runoff model HYSTEM/EXTRAN and the decision finding model INTL for real time performance, their implementation on a network of UNIX stations and the experiences from running them within an urban drainage real time control project. The main focus is not on what the models do but how they are put into action and made to run smoothly embedded in all the processes necessary in operational real time control.

scholarly journals Rainfall-Runoff Modeling Using the HEC-HMS Model for the Al-Adhaim River Catchment, Northern Iraq

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Ahmed Naseh Ahmed Hamdan ◽  
Suhad Almuktar ◽  
Miklas Scholz
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Information Systems ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Curve Number ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Time Step ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Northern Iraq

It has become necessary to estimate the quantities of runoff by knowing the amount of rainfall to calculate the required quantities of water storage in reservoirs and to determine the likelihood of flooding. The present study deals with the development of a hydrological model named Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS), which uses Digital Elevation Models (DEM). This hydrological model was used by means of the Geospatial Hydrologic Modeling Extension (HEC-GeoHMS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to identify the discharge of the Al-Adhaim River catchment and embankment dam in Iraq by simulated rainfall-runoff processes. The meteorological models were developed within the HEC-HMS from the recorded daily rainfall data for the hydrological years 2015 to 2018. The control specifications were defined for the specified period and one day time step. The Soil Conservation Service-Curve number (SCS-CN), SCS Unit Hydrograph and Muskingum methods were used for loss, transformation and routing calculations, respectively. The model was simulated for two years for calibration and one year for verification of the daily rainfall values. The results showed that both observed and simulated hydrographs were highly correlated. The model’s performance was evaluated by using a coefficient of determination of 90% for calibration and verification. The dam’s discharge for the considered period was successfully simulated but slightly overestimated. The results indicated that the model is suitable for hydrological simulations in the Al-Adhaim river catchment.

scholarly journals SHETRAN and HEC HMS Model Evaluation for Runoff and Soil Moisture Simulation in the Jičinka River Catchment (Czech Republic)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 872
Author(s):  
Vesna Đukić ◽  
Ranka Erić
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Hydrological Variable ◽  
Model Structures

Due to the improvement of computation power, in recent decades considerable progress has been made in the development of complex hydrological models. On the other hand, simple conceptual models have also been advanced. Previous studies on rainfall–runoff models have shown that model performance depends very much on the model structure. The purpose of this study is to determine whether the use of a complex hydrological model leads to more accurate results or not and to analyze whether some model structures are more efficient than others. Different configurations of the two models of different complexity, the Système Hydrologique Européen TRANsport (SHETRAN) and Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS), were compared and evaluated in simulating flash flood runoff for the small (75.9 km2) Jičinka River catchment in the Czech Republic. The two models were compared with respect to runoff simulations at the catchment outlet and soil moisture simulations within the catchment. The results indicate that the more complex SHETRAN model outperforms the simpler HEC HMS model in case of runoff, but not for soil moisture. It can be concluded that the models with higher complexity do not necessarily provide better model performance, and that the reliability of hydrological model simulations can vary depending on the hydrological variable under consideration.

Development of a Real-Time Flood Forecasting System by Hydraulic Flood Routing

2001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joo Heon Lee ◽  
Do Hun Lee ◽  
Sang Man Jeong ◽  
Eun Tae Lee
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Flood Routing ◽  
Forecasting System

RTCONTACT: An Efficient Wheel-Rail Contact Algorithm for Real-Time Dynamic Simulations

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Bosso ◽  
A. Gugliotta ◽  
N. Zampieri
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Computational Efficiency ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Experimental Tests ◽  
Contact Forces ◽  
Dynamic Simulations ◽  
Time Dynamic ◽  
Contact Algorithm ◽  
Complex Simulation ◽  
Precise Representation

Determination of contact forces exchanged between wheel and rail is one of the most important topics in railway dynamics. Recent studies are oriented to improve the existing contact methods in terms of computational efficiency on one side and on the other side to develop more complex and precise representation of the contact problem. This work shows some new results of the contact code developed at Politecnico di Torino identified as RTCONTACT; this code, which is an improvement of the CONPOL algorithm, is the result of long term activities, early versions were used in conjunction with MBS codes or in Matlab® environment to simulate vehicle behaviour. The code has been improved also using experimental tests performed on a scaled roller-rig. More recently the contact model was improved in order to obtain a higher computational efficiency that is a required for the use inside of a Real Time process. Benefit of a Real Time contact algorithm is the possibility to use complex simulation models in diagnostic or control systems in order to improve their performances. This work shows several comparisons of the RTCONTACT contact code respect commercial codes, standards and benchmark results.

scholarly journals CLASSIC: a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff modelling system

2007 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 516-531 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Crooks ◽  
P. S. Naden
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Digital Terrain Model ◽  
Flood Frequency ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Terrain Model ◽  
Flow Duration Curves ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Modelling System

Abstract. This paper describes the development of a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall–runoff model, originally formulated to simulate impacts of climate and land-use change on flood frequency. The model has component modules for soil moisture balance, drainage response and channel routing and is grid-based to allow direct incorporation of GIS- and Digital Terrain Model (DTM)-derived data sets into the initialisation of parameter values. Catchment runoff is derived from the aggregation of components of flow from the drainage module within each grid square and from total routed flow from all grid squares. Calibration is performed sequentially for the three modules using different objective functions for each stage. A key principle of the modelling system is the concept of nested calibration, which ensures that all flows simulated for points within a large catchment are spatially consistent. The modelling system is robust and has been applied successfully at different spatial scales to three large catchments in the UK, including comparison of observed and modelled flood frequency and flow duration curves, simulation of flows for uncalibrated catchments and identification of components of flow within a modelled hydrograph. The role of such a model in integrated catchment studies is outlined.

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