Atmospheric response to different sea surface temperatures in the Baltic Sea: coupled versus uncoupled regional climate model experiments

2005 ◽  
Vol 36 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 397-409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Kjellström ◽  
Ralf Döscher ◽  
H.E. Markus Meier
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Model System ◽  
Global Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
The Baltic

A climate change experiment with a fully coupled high resolution regional atmosphere–ocean model for the Baltic Sea is compared to an experiment with a stand-alone regional atmospheric model. Both experiments simulate 30-yr periods with boundary data from the same global climate model system. This particular global model system simulates very high sea surface temperatures during summer for the Baltic Sea at the end of this century under the investigated emission scenario. We show that the sea surface temperatures are less warm in the coupled regional model compared to the global model system and that this difference is dependent on the atmospheric circulation. In summers with a high NAO index and thereby relatively strong westerly flow over the North Atlantic the differences between the two models are small, while in summers with a weaker, more northerly flow over the Baltic Sea the differences are very large. The higher sea surface temperatures in the uncoupled experiment lead to an intensified hydrological cycle over the Baltic Sea, with more than 30% additional precipitation in summer taken as an average over the full 30-yr period and over the entire Baltic Sea. The differences are mostly local, over the sea, but there are differences in surrounding land areas.

Reconstructing Holocene palaeoenvironmental conditions in the Baltic: Palynological and biogeochemical data from the Landsort Deep (IODP Expedition 347, Site M0063)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich Kotthoff ◽  
Thorsten Bauersachs
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Anthropogenic Influence ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Baltic Region ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Ecosystem Changes

<p>Restricted basins, such as the Baltic Sea, experience particularly large impact from ongoing global climate change, including severe oxygen depletion, intensified stratification and increased water temperatures. This results in significant and lasting ecosystem alterations. IODP Expedition 347 recovered sediment cores from the Baltic Sea which allow reconstructions of such changes in an as yet unprecedented quality and resolution. We analysed Holocene sediments from the Landsort Deep (IODP Site M0063) using a combined palynological and biogeochemical approach in order to reconstruct palaeoclimate and associated terrestrial and marine ecosystem changes as well as identify anthropogenic influence in the Baltic region. Pollen are used as proxy for terrestrial vegetation changes, including agricultural activity indicated by the presence of cereals. Comparison of pollen data with organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts and other palynomorphs such as the algal taxa <em>Pediastrum</em>, <em>Botryococcus</em>, and <em>Radiosperma</em> from identical samples provides a direct land-sea comparison. These analyses are complemented with the reconstruction of sea surface temperatures (TEX<sup>L</sup><sub>86</sub>, LDI) and mean annual air temperatures (MBT<sup>’</sup><sub>5Me</sub>) in the Baltic Sea region. For the late to middle Holocene (~8000 to ~4000 years BP), our data imply a strong brackish-marine influence which decreases around 4000 years BP. A gradually increasing proportion of long-chain n-alkanes around this time indicates a stronger terrestrial influence. Increasing percentages of spruce (<em>Picea</em>) point to the immigration of this taxon in the central Baltic region. Warmth-loving tree taxa such as hazel (<em>Corylus</em>) imply warm conditions between ~5000 and 4000 years BP but subsequently their pollen percentages are decreasing in general. Otherwise our data indicate only minor terrestrial ecosystem changes until ca. 1000 years BP. The past ca. 1000 years witnessed increased agricultural activity, indicated by higher abundances of rye (<em>Secale</em>) pollen, and probably anthropogenically induced deforestation. This increase is paired with high percentages of the enigmatic palynomorph <em>Radiosperma corbiferum</em>. During the past 500 years sea surface temperatures increased significantly, culminating in values comparable to the Holocene Climatic Optimum. Generally, the most rapid changes in the terrestrial ecosystems seem to have happened during the past millennium under anthropogenic influence.</p>

scholarly journals Remote Sensing Supported Sea Surface pCO2 Estimation and Variable Analysis in the Baltic Sea

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 259
Author(s):  
Shuping Zhang ◽  
Anna Rutgersson ◽  
Petra Philipson ◽  
Marcus B. Wallin
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Chl A ◽  
Marginal Seas ◽  
The Baltic

Marginal seas are a dynamic and still to large extent uncertain component of the global carbon cycle. The large temporal and spatial variations of sea-surface partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in these areas are driven by multiple complex mechanisms. In this study, we analyzed the variable importance for the sea surface pCO2 estimation in the Baltic Sea and derived monthly pCO2 maps for the marginal sea during the period of July 2002–October 2011. We used variables obtained from remote sensing images and numerical models. The random forest algorithm was employed to construct regression models for pCO2 estimation and produce the importance of different input variables. The study found that photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) was the most important variable for the pCO2 estimation across the entire Baltic Sea, followed by sea surface temperature (SST), absorption of colored dissolved organic matter (aCDOM), and mixed layer depth (MLD). Interestingly, Chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a) and the diffuse attenuation coefficient for downwelling irradiance at 490 nm (Kd_490nm) showed relatively low importance for the pCO2 estimation. This was mainly attributed to the high correlation of Chl-a and Kd_490nm to other pCO2-relevant variables (e.g., aCDOM), particularly in the summer months. In addition, the variables’ importance for pCO2 estimation varied between seasons and sub-basins. For example, the importance of aCDOM were large in the Gulf of Finland but marginal in other sub-basins. The model for pCO2 estimate in the entire Baltic Sea explained 63% of the variation and had a root of mean squared error (RMSE) of 47.8 µatm. The pCO2 maps derived with this model displayed realistic seasonal variations and spatial features of sea surface pCO2 in the Baltic Sea. The spatially and seasonally varying variables’ importance for the pCO2 estimation shed light on the heterogeneities in the biogeochemical and physical processes driving the carbon cycling in the Baltic Sea and can serve as an important basis for future pCO2 estimation in marginal seas using remote sensing techniques. The pCO2 maps derived in this study provided a robust benchmark for understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of CO2 air-sea exchange in the Baltic Sea.

Variational assimilation of observation data in the mathematical model of the Baltic Sea dynamics

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Valeriy I. Agoshkov ◽  
Eugene I. Parmuzin ◽  
Vladimir B. Zalesny ◽  
Victor P. Shutyaev ◽  
Natalia B. Zakharova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Heat Flux ◽  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Satellite Observation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Variational Assimilation ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
The Mathematical Model

AbstractA mathematical model of the dynamics of the Baltic Sea is considered. A problem of variational assimilation of sea surface temperature (SST) data is formulated and studied. Based on variational assimilation of satellite observation data, an algorithm solving the inverse problem of heat flux restoration on the interface of two media is proposed. The results of numerical experiments reconstructing the heat flux functions in the problem of variational assimilation of SST observation data are presented. The influence of SST assimilation on other hydrodynamic parameters of the model is considered.

scholarly journals Changing seasonality of the Baltic Sea

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1009-1018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mati Kahru ◽  
Ragnar Elmgren ◽  
Oleg P. Savchuk
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Chlorophyll Concentration ◽  
Ecological Status ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Seasonal Cycles ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Several Variables ◽  
Satellite Sensors ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Increasing Trends

Abstract. Changes in the phenology of physical and ecological variables associated with climate change are likely to have significant effect on many aspects of the Baltic ecosystem. We apply a set of phenological indicators to multiple environmental variables measured by satellite sensors for 17–36 years to detect possible changes in the seasonality in the Baltic Sea environment. We detect significant temporal changes, such as earlier start of the summer season and prolongation of the productive season, in several variables ranging from basic physical drivers to ecological status indicators. While increasing trends in the absolute values of variables like sea-surface temperature (SST), diffuse attenuation of light (Ked490) and satellite-detected chlorophyll concentration (CHL) are detectable, the corresponding changes in their seasonal cycles are more dramatic. For example, the cumulative sum of 30 000 W m−2 of surface incoming shortwave irradiance (SIS) was reached 23 days earlier in 2014 compared to the beginning of the time series in 1983. The period of the year with SST of at least 17 °C has almost doubled (from 29 days in 1982 to 56 days in 2014), and the period with Ked490 over 0.4 m−1 has increased from about 60 days in 1998 to 240 days in 2013 – i.e., quadrupled. The period with satellite-estimated CHL of at least 3 mg m−3 has doubled from approximately 110 days in 1998 to 220 days in 2013. While the timing of both the phytoplankton spring and summer blooms have advanced, the annual CHL maximum that in the 1980s corresponded to the spring diatom bloom in May has now shifted to the summer cyanobacteria bloom in July.

Nemo-Nordic 2.0: Updated Baltic Sea model based on NEMO 4.0

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuomas Kärnä ◽  
Ida Ringgaard ◽  
Vasily Korabel ◽  
Adam Nord ◽  
Patrik Ljungemyr ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Inflow Event ◽  
Arkona Basin ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Marine Environment Monitoring ◽  
Monitoring Service

<p>We present Nemo-Nordic 2.0, the latest version of the operational marine forecasting model for the Baltic Sea used and developed in the Baltic Monitoring Forecasting Centre (BAL MFC) under the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). The most notable differences between Nemo-Nordic 2.0 and its predecessor Nemo-Nordic 1.0 are the switch from NEMO 3.6 to NEMO 4.0 and an increase in horizontal resolution from 2 to 1 nautical mile. In addition, the model's bathymetry and bottom friction formulation have been updated. The model configuration was specially tuned to represent Major Baltic Inflow events. Focusing on a 2-year validation period from October 1, 2014, covering one Major Baltic Inflow event, Nemo-Nordic 2.0 simulates Sea Surface Height (SSH) well: centralized Root-Mean-Square Deviation (CRMSD) is within 10 cm for most stations outside the Inner Danish Waters. CRMSD is higher at some stations where small-scale topographical features cannot be correctly resolved. SSH variability tends to be overestimated in the Baltic Sea and underestimated in the Inner Danish Waters. Nemo-Nordic 2.0 represents Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Salinity (SSS) well, although there is a negative bias around -0.5°C in SST. The 2014 Major Baltic Inflow event is well reproduced. The simulated salt pulse agrees well with observations in the Arkona basin and progresses into the Gotland basin in 3 to 4 months.</p>

Quantifying Teleconnection pathways leading to Low Rainfall anomalies during Boreal Summer in Indonesian Borneo

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Lam ◽  
Marlene Kretschmer ◽  
Samantha Adams ◽  
Alberto Arribas ◽  
Rachel Prudden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Causal Inference ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Rainfall Anomalies

<p>Teleconnections are sources of predictability for regional weather and climate, which can be represented by causal relationships between climate features in physically separated regions. In this study, teleconnections of low rainfall anomalies in Indonesian Borneo are analysed and quantified using causal inference theory and causal networks. Causal hypotheses are first developed based on climate model experiments in literature and then justified by means of partial regression analysis between NCEP reanalysis sea surface temperatures and climate indices (drivers) and rainfall data in Indonesian Borneo from various sources (target variable). We find that, as previous studies have highlighted, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a profound effect on rainfall in Indonesia Borneo, with positive Niño 3.4 index serving as a direct driver of low rainfall, also partially through reduced sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over Indonesian waters. On the other hand, while Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influences Indonesian Borneo rainfall through SSTs over the same area as a thermodynamic effect, its remaining effect has shifted at multidecadal timescale, opening the rooms for further research. This work informs the potential of a systematic causal approach to statistical inference as a powerful tool to verify and explore atmospheric teleconnections and enables seasonal forecasting to strengthen prevention and control of drought and fire multihazards over peatlands in the study region.</p><p>Keywords: Tropical teleconnections, Causal inference, Climate variability, Drought, Indonesia</p>

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Droughts ◽  
2016 ◽  
pp. 77-77
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Coupled Mode ◽  
Australian Region ◽  
Surface Temperatures
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