Simulated impact of climate change on hydrology of multiple watersheds using traditional and recommended snowmelt runoff model methodology

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 665-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emile Elias ◽  
Albert Rango ◽  
Caitriana M. Steele ◽  
John F. Mejia ◽  
Ruben Baca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Application ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Model ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

For more than two decades researchers have utilized the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) to test the impacts of climate change on streamflow of snow-fed systems. SRM developers recommend a parameter shift during simulations of future climate, but this is often omitted. Here we show the impact of this omission on model results. In this study, the hydrological effects of climate change are modeled over three sequential years with typical and recommended SRM methodology. We predict the impacts of climate change on water resources of five subbasins of an arid region. Climate data are downscaled to weather stations. Period change analysis gives temperature and precipitation changes for 55 general circulation models which are then subsampled to produce four future states per basin. Results indicate an increase in temperature between 3.0 and 6.2 °C and an 18% decrease to 26% increase in precipitation. Without modifications to the snow runoff coefficient (cS), mean results across all basins range from a reduction in total volume of 21% to an increase of 4%. Modifications to cS resulted in a 0–10% difference in simulated annual volume. Future application of SRM should include a parameter shift representing the changed climate.

scholarly journals Climate change and agricultural productivity in Brazil: future perspectives

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 581-602 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliano Assunção ◽  
Flávia Chein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Agricultural Productivity ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Perspectives ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractThis paper evaluates the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity. Cross-sectional variation in climate among Brazilian municipalities is used to estimate an equation in which geographical attributes determine agricultural productivity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predictions based on atmosphere–ocean, coupled with general circulation models (for 2030–2049), are used to simulate the impacts of climate change. Our estimates suggest that global warming under the current technological standards is expected to decrease the agricultural output per hectare in Brazil by 18 per cent, with the effects on municipalities ranging from−40 to+15 per cent.

scholarly journals The impact of the climate change on discharge of Suir River Catchment (Ireland) under different climate scenarios

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 387-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Wang ◽  
R. McGrath ◽  
T. Semmler ◽  
C. Sweeney ◽  
P. Nolan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of climate change on local discharge variability is investigated in the Suir River Catchment which is located in the south-east of Ireland. In this paper, the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA) is driven by different global climate data sets. For the past climate (1961–2000), the model is driven by ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40) data as well as by the output of the general circulation models (GCM's) ECHAM4 and ECHAM5. For the future simulation (2021–2060), the model is driven by two GCM scenarios: ECHAM4_B2 and ECHAM5_A2. To investigate the influence of changed future climate on local discharge, the precipitation of the model output is used as input for the HBV hydrological model. The calibration and validation results of our ERA-40 driven present day simulation shows that the HBV model can reproduce the discharge fairly well, except the extreme discharge is systematically underestimated by about 15–20%. Altogether the application of a high resolution regional climate model in connection with a conceptual hydrological model is capable of capturing the local variability of river discharge for present-day climate using boundary values assimilated with observations such as ERA-40 data. However, using GCM data to drive RCA and HBV suggests, that there is still large uncertainty connected with the GCM formulation: For present day climate the validation of the ECHAM4 and ECHAM5 driven simulations indicates stronger discharge compared to the observations due to overprediction of precipitation, especially for the ECHAM5 driven simulation in the summer season. Whereas according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario the discharge generally increases – most pronounced in the wet winter time, there are only slight increases in winter and considerable decreases in summer according to the ECHAM5_A2 scenario. This also leads to a different behaviour in the evolution of return levels of extreme discharge events: Strong increases according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario and slight decreases according to the ECHAM5_A2 scenario.

scholarly journals Effect of Climate Change on the Rainfall Trends: A case study of Pune, India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shalaka Shah ◽  
Shreenivas Londhe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Accurate Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Grid Points ◽  
The Impact

Abstract It is the need of the hour to predict the impact of climate change, especially rainfall on the future environmental conditions on local as well as global scales. The present work aims at studying the impact of climate change on the rainfall occurring over Pune, the eighth largest city in India. The General Circulation Models (GCMs) are predominantly used to obtain the climate data all over the globe, at various grid points, for past and future years. Rainfall values obtained from these grid points need to be downscaled to make them location specific. This study proposes a soft computing tool, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the purpose of downscaling. The rainfall data at 4 grid points surrounding Pune, was extracted from 5 different GCMs and given as input to ANN with observed rainfall as output, thus forming 5 models. For comparison, a pre-existing downscaling technique, Distribution based scaling (DBS) was used. The coefficient of correlation (r) showed that ANN was working better than DBS. The value of r for ANN was 0.73 for its least accurate model whereas DBS managed to reach 0.73 for its most accurate model. The future rainfall estimated with the help of the trained ANN models show an increase in mean rainfall over the Pune region by ∼2 – 15% and decrease in maximum rainfall by ∼40 – 65%. Peak prediction of rainfall simulated by ANN was not very accurate and hence there is still an opportunity for improvement which is the future scope of this study.

scholarly journals A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kleoniki Demertzi ◽  
Dimitris Papadimos ◽  
Vassilis Aschonitis ◽  
Dimitris Papamichail
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Natural Lakes ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers.

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

Beneficial impacts of climate change on pastoral and broadacre agriculture in cool-temperate Tasmania

2014 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 194 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. C. Phelan ◽  
D. Parsons ◽  
S. N. Lisson ◽  
G. K. Holz ◽  
N. D. MacLeod
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Elevated Atmospheric Co2

Although geographically small, Tasmania has a diverse range of regional climates that are affected by different synoptic influences. Consequently, changes in climate variables and climate-change impacts will likely vary in different regions of the state. This study aims to quantify the regional effects of projected climate change on the productivity of rainfed pastoral and wheat crop systems at five sites across Tasmania. Projected climate data for each site were obtained from the Climate Futures for Tasmania project (CFT). Six General Circulation Models were dynamically downscaled to ~10-km grid cells using the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model under the A2 emissions scenario for the period 1961–2100. Mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures at each site are projected to increase from a baseline period (1981–2010) to 2085 (2071–2100) by 2.3–2.7°C. Mean annual rainfall is projected to increase slightly at all sites. Impacts on pasture and wheat production were simulated for each site using the projected CFT climate data. Mean annual pasture yields are projected to increase from the baseline to 2085 largely due to an increase in spring pasture growth. However, summer growth of temperate pasture species may become limited by 2085 due to greater soil moisture deficits. Wheat yields are also projected to increase, particularly at sites presently temperature-limited. This study suggests that increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are likely to increase regional rainfed pasture and wheat production in the absence of any significant changes in rainfall patterns.

scholarly journals Simulation and analysis of the impact of projected climate change on the spatially distributed waterbalance in Thuringia, Germany

2009 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 33-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Krause ◽  
S. Hanisch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Actual Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Conceptual Hydrological Model

Abstract. The impact of projected climate change on the long-term hydrological balance and seasonal variability in the federal German state of Thuringia was assessed and analysed. For this study projected climate data for the scenarios A2 and B1 were used in conjunction with a conceptual hydrological model. The downscaled climate data are based on outputs of the general circulation model ECHAM5 and provide synthetic climate time series for a large number of precipitation and climate stations in Germany for the time period of 1971 to 2100. These data were used to compute the spatially distributed hydrological quantities, i.e. precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and runoff generation with a conceptual hydrological model. This paper discusses briefly the statistical downscaling method and its validation in Thuringia and includes an overview of the hydrological model. The achieved results show that the projected climate conditions in Thuringia follow the general European climate trends – increased temperature, wetter winters, drier summers. But, in terms of the spatial distribution and interannual variability regional differences occur. The analysis showed that the general increase of the winter precipitation is more distinct in the mid-mountain region and less pronounced in the lowland whereas the decrease of summer precipitation is higher in the lowland and less distinct in the mid-mountains. The actual evapotranspiration showed a statewide increase due to higher temperatures which is largest in the summer period. The resulting runoff generation in winter was found to increase in the mid-mountains and to slightly decrease in the lowland region. In summer and fall a decrease in runoff generation was estimated for the entire area due to lower precipitation and higher evapotranspiration rates. These spatially differentiated results emphasize the need of high resolution climate input data and distributed modelling for regional impact analyses.

scholarly journals Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 6569-6614 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Lauri ◽  
H. de Moel ◽  
P. J. Ward ◽  
T. A. Räsänen ◽  
M. Keskinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Cumulative Impacts ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change ◽  
Hydropower Reservoirs

Abstract. The transboundary Mekong River is facing two on-going changes that are estimated to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and the projected climate change is expected to alter the monsoon patterns and increase temperature in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on the hydrology of the Mekong within next 20–30 yr. We downscaled output of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) that were found to perform well in the Mekong region. For the simulation of reservoir operation, we used an optimisation approach to estimate the operation of multiple reservoirs, including both existing and planned hydropower reservoirs. For hydrological assessment, we used a distributed hydrological model, VMod, with a grid resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In terms of climate change's impact to hydrology, we found a high variation in the discharge results depending on which of the GCMs is used as input. The simulated change in discharge at Kratie (Cambodia) between the baseline (1982–1992) and projected time period (2032–2042) ranges from −11% to +15% for the wet season and −10% to +13% for the dry season. Our analysis also shows that the changes in discharge due to planned reservoir operations are clearly larger than those simulated due to climate change: 25–160% higher dry season flows and 5–24% lower flood peaks in Kratie. The projected cumulative impacts follow rather closely the reservoir operation impacts, with an envelope around them induced by the different GCMs. Our results thus indicate that within the coming 20–30 yr, the operation of planned hydropower reservoirs is likely to have a larger impact on the Mekong hydrograph than the impacts of climate change, particularly during the dry season. On the other hand, climate change will increase the uncertainty of the estimated hydropower impacts. Consequently, both dam planners and dam operators should pay better attention to the cumulative impacts of climate change and reservoir operation to the aquatic ecosystems, including the multibillion-dollar Mekong fisheries.

scholarly journals Accounting for uncertainty in assessing the impact of climate change on biodiversity hotspots in Spain

2019 ◽  
pp. 355-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Romero ◽  
J. Olivero ◽  
R. Real
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Biodiversity Hotspots ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Vertebrate Species ◽  
Taxonomic Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

Our limited understanding of the complexity of nature generates uncertainty in mathematical and cartographical models used to predict the effects of climate change on species’ distributions. We developed predictive models of distributional range shifts of threatened vertebrate species in mainland Spain, and in their accumulation in biodiversity hotspots due to climate change. We considered two relevant sources of climatological uncertainty that affect predictions of future climate: general circulation models and socio–economic scenarios. We also examined the relative importance of climate as a driver of species’ distribution and taxonomic uncertainty as additional biogeographical causes of uncertainty. Uncertainty was detected in all the forecasts derived from models in which climate was a significant explanatory factor, and in the species with taxonomic uncertainty. Uncertainty in forecasts was mainly located in areas not occupied by the species, and increased with time difference from the present. Mapping this uncertainty allowed us to assess the consistency of predictions regarding future changes in the distribution of hotspots of threatened vertebrates in Spain.

scholarly journals Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Measures for Maize Production in East Sikkim, India

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-27
Author(s):  
Proloy Deb ◽  
S. Babel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
North East ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

An investigation was carried out to assess the impacts of climate change on rainfed maize yield using a yield response to water stress model (AquaCrop) and to identify suitable adaptation options to minimize the negative impacts on maize yield in East Sikkim, North East India. Crop management and yield data was collected from the field experimental plots for calibration and validation of the model for the study area. The future climate data was developed for two IPCC emission scenarios A2 and B2 based on the global climate model HadCM3 with downscaling of climate to finer spatial resolution using the statistical downscaling model, SDSM. The impact study revealed that there is an expected reduction in maize yield of 12.8, 28.3 and 33.9% for the A2 scenario and 7.5, 19.9 and 29.9% for the B2 scenario during 2012-40, 2041-70 and 2071-99 respectively compared to the average yield simulated during the period of 1961-1990 with observed climate data. The maize yield of same variety under future climate can be maintained or improved from current level by changing planting dates, providing supplement irrigation and managing optimum nutrient.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 9(1) 2015, p.15-27

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