The impact of the climate change on discharge of Suir River Catchment (Ireland) under different climate scenarios

Abstract. The impact of climate change on local discharge variability is investigated in the Suir River Catchment which is located in the south-east of Ireland. In this paper, the Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model (RCA) is driven by different global climate data sets. For the past climate (1961–2000), the model is driven by ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40) data as well as by the output of the general circulation models (GCM's) ECHAM4 and ECHAM5. For the future simulation (2021–2060), the model is driven by two GCM scenarios: ECHAM4_B2 and ECHAM5_A2. To investigate the influence of changed future climate on local discharge, the precipitation of the model output is used as input for the HBV hydrological model. The calibration and validation results of our ERA-40 driven present day simulation shows that the HBV model can reproduce the discharge fairly well, except the extreme discharge is systematically underestimated by about 15–20%. Altogether the application of a high resolution regional climate model in connection with a conceptual hydrological model is capable of capturing the local variability of river discharge for present-day climate using boundary values assimilated with observations such as ERA-40 data. However, using GCM data to drive RCA and HBV suggests, that there is still large uncertainty connected with the GCM formulation: For present day climate the validation of the ECHAM4 and ECHAM5 driven simulations indicates stronger discharge compared to the observations due to overprediction of precipitation, especially for the ECHAM5 driven simulation in the summer season. Whereas according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario the discharge generally increases – most pronounced in the wet winter time, there are only slight increases in winter and considerable decreases in summer according to the ECHAM5_A2 scenario. This also leads to a different behaviour in the evolution of return levels of extreme discharge events: Strong increases according to the ECHAM4_B2 scenario and slight decreases according to the ECHAM5_A2 scenario.

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The impact of climate change on hydrological patterns in Czech headwater catchments

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions ◽

10.5194/hessd-7-1245-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 1245-1278 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

A. Benčoková ◽

P. Krám ◽

J. Hruška

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Annual Runoff ◽

Mean Flow ◽

Forested Catchments ◽

The Impact

Abstract. The aim of this study was to estimate the impacts of anticipated global climate change on runoff and evapotranspiration in small-forested catchments. The investigated Lysina and Pluhův Bor catchments are situated in the Slavkov Forest in the western part of the Czech Republic. To forecast hydrological patterns for the period 2071–2100, outputs from two general circulation models, HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, were downscaled by an RCAO (regional climate model) which ran the SRES emission scenarios A2 and B2 for each model. Bias-corrected RCAO daily outputs were used in combination with the hydrological model Brook90. Annual runoff is predicted to decline by 6–45%, and impacts on the distribution of monthly flow are predicted to be significant, with summer-autumn decreases of 29–96%, and winter increases of up to ~48% compared to mean flow from 1967–1990. Mean daily flows are estimated to decrease by 63–94% from August to November. These changes would have serious ecological consequences, since streams could regularly dry-up for short periods of time.

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Uncertainty of climate change and its impact on reference evapotranspiration in Rasht City, Iran

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2011.055 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 72-83 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Heerbod Jahanbani ◽

Lee Teang Shui ◽

Alireza Massah Bavani ◽

Abdul Halim Ghazali

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Model ◽

Reference Evapotranspiration ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Coupled Model ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Model Version ◽

The Impact

There are many factors of uncertainty regarding the impact of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The accuracy of the results is strictly related to these factors and ignoring any one of them reduces the precision of the results, and reduces their applicability for decision makers. In this study, the uncertainty related to two ETo models, the Hargreaves-Samani (HGS) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), and two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs), Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) climatic model and the Canadian Global Climate Model, version 3 (CGCM3) climatic model under climate change, was evaluated. The models predicted average temperature increases by 2010 to 2039 of 0.95 °C by the HadCM3 model and 1.13°C by the CGCM3 model under the A2 scenario relative to observed temperature. Accordingly, the models predicted average ETo would increase of 0.48, 0.60, 0.50 and 0.60 (mm/day) by 2010 to 2039 projected by four methods (by introducing the temperature of the HadCM3-A2 model and the CGCM3-A2 to ANN and HGS) relative to ETo of the observed period. The results showed that uncertainty of the AOGCMs is more than that of the ETo models applied in this study.

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Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2012.035 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 3 (3) ◽

pp. 207-224 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽

Tadashi Suetsugi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Assessment Tool ◽

Swat Model ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

River Catchment ◽

Calibration And Validation ◽

Daily Streamflow ◽

The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

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Simulation and analysis of the impact of projected climate change on the spatially distributed waterbalance in Thuringia, Germany

Advances in Geosciences ◽

10.5194/adgeo-21-33-2009 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 21 ◽

pp. 33-48 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

P. Krause ◽

S. Hanisch

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

General Circulation ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Actual Evapotranspiration ◽

Climate Data ◽

Runoff Generation ◽

Entire Area ◽

Spatially Distributed ◽

The Impact ◽

Conceptual Hydrological Model

Abstract. The impact of projected climate change on the long-term hydrological balance and seasonal variability in the federal German state of Thuringia was assessed and analysed. For this study projected climate data for the scenarios A2 and B1 were used in conjunction with a conceptual hydrological model. The downscaled climate data are based on outputs of the general circulation model ECHAM5 and provide synthetic climate time series for a large number of precipitation and climate stations in Germany for the time period of 1971 to 2100. These data were used to compute the spatially distributed hydrological quantities, i.e. precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and runoff generation with a conceptual hydrological model. This paper discusses briefly the statistical downscaling method and its validation in Thuringia and includes an overview of the hydrological model. The achieved results show that the projected climate conditions in Thuringia follow the general European climate trends – increased temperature, wetter winters, drier summers. But, in terms of the spatial distribution and interannual variability regional differences occur. The analysis showed that the general increase of the winter precipitation is more distinct in the mid-mountain region and less pronounced in the lowland whereas the decrease of summer precipitation is higher in the lowland and less distinct in the mid-mountains. The actual evapotranspiration showed a statewide increase due to higher temperatures which is largest in the summer period. The resulting runoff generation in winter was found to increase in the mid-mountains and to slightly decrease in the lowland region. In summer and fall a decrease in runoff generation was estimated for the entire area due to lower precipitation and higher evapotranspiration rates. These spatially differentiated results emphasize the need of high resolution climate input data and distributed modelling for regional impact analyses.

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On the potential use of glacier and permafrost observations for verification of climate models

Annals of Glaciology ◽

10.1017/s026030550001435x ◽

1997 ◽

Vol 25 ◽

pp. 400-406 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Martin Beniston ◽

Wilfried Haeberli ◽

Martin Hoelzle ◽

Alan Taylor

Keyword(s):

General Circulation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Model Performance ◽

Regional Climate Models ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Model Verification ◽

Dominant Feature

While the capability of global and regional climate models in reproducing current climate has significantly improved over the past few years, the confidence in model results for remote regions, or those where complex orography is a dominant feature, is still relatively low. This is, in part, linked to the lack of observational data for model verification and intercomparison purposes.Glacier and permafrost observations are directly related to past and present energy flux patterns at the Earth-atmosphere interface and could be used as a proxy for air temperature and precipitation, particularly of value in remote mountain regions and boreal and Arctic zones where instrumental climate records are sparse or non-existent. It is particularly important to verify climate-model performance in these regions, as this is where most general circulation models (GCMs) predict the greatest changes in air temperatures in a warmer global climate.Existing datasets from glacier and permafrost monitoring sites in remote and high altitudes are described in this paper; the data could be used in model-verification studies, as a means to improving model performance in these regions.

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An ensemble approach to assess hydrological models' contribution to uncertainties in the analysis of climate change impact on water resources

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences ◽

10.5194/hess-17-565-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 17 (2) ◽

pp. 565-578 ◽

Cited By ~ 106

Author(s):

J. A. Velázquez ◽

J. Schmid ◽

S. Ricard ◽

M. J. Muerth ◽

B. Gauvin St-Denis ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Resources ◽

Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Structural Complexity ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Hydrological Models ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Over the recent years, several research efforts investigated the impact of climate change on water resources for different regions of the world. The projection of future river flows is affected by different sources of uncertainty in the hydro-climatic modelling chain. One of the aims of the QBic3 project (Québec-Bavarian International Collaboration on Climate Change) is to assess the contribution to uncertainty of hydrological models by using an ensemble of hydrological models presenting a diversity of structural complexity (i.e., lumped, semi distributed and distributed models). The study investigates two humid, mid-latitude catchments with natural flow conditions; one located in Southern Québec (Canada) and one in Southern Bavaria (Germany). Daily flow is simulated with four different hydrological models, forced by outputs from regional climate models driven by global climate models over a reference (1971–2000) and a future (2041–2070) period. The results show that, for our hydrological model ensemble, the choice of model strongly affects the climate change response of selected hydrological indicators, especially those related to low flows. Indicators related to high flows seem less sensitive on the choice of the hydrological model.

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Building synergies in regional climate services for Southeast Asia: The ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP) workshop series.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-15094 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Gerald Lim ◽

Aurel Moise ◽

Raizan Rahmat ◽

Bertrand Timbal

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Data Analysis ◽

Southeast Asia ◽

Climate Model ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Early Warning Systems ◽

Climate Data ◽

Climate Services

Southeast Asia (SEA) is a rapidly developing and densely populated region that is home to over 600 million people. This, together with the region&#8217;s high sensitivity, exposure and low adaptive capacities, makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change and extremes such as floods, droughts and tropical cyclones. While the last decade saw some countries in SEA develop their own climate change projections, studies were largely uncoordinated and most countries still lack the capability to independently produce robust future climate information. Following a proposal from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Regional Association (RA) V working group on climate services, the ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP) workshop series was conceived in 2017 to bridge these gaps in regional synergies. The ARCDAP series has been organised annually since 2018 by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (hosted by Meteorological Service Singapore) with support from WMO through the Canada-funded Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (Canada-CREWS) initiative.This presentation will cover the activities and outcomes from the first two workshops, as well as the third which will be held in February 2020. The ARCDAP series has so far brought together representatives from ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), climate scientists and end-users from policy-making and a variety of vulnerability and impact assessment (VIA) sectors, to discuss and identify best practices regarding the delivery of climate change information, data usage and management, advancing the science etc. Notable outputs include two comprehensive workshop reports and a significant regional contribution to the HadEX3 global land in-situ-based dataset of temperature and precipitation extremes, motivated by work done with the ClimPACT2 software.The upcoming third workshop will endeavour to encourage the uptake of the latest ensemble of climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) using CMIP-endorsed tools such as ESMValTool. This will address the need for ASEAN climate change practitioners to upgrade their knowledge of the latest global climate model database. It is anticipated that with continued support from WMO, the series will continue with the Fourth workshop targeting the assessment of downscaling experiments in 2021.

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Interpreting Results from the NARCCAP and NA-CORDEX Ensembles in the Context of Uncertainty in Regional Climate Change Projections

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society ◽

10.1175/bams-d-17-0127.1 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 99 (10) ◽

pp. 2093-2106 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Ambarish V. Karmalkar

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North America ◽

General Circulation ◽

Climate Models ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Regional Climate Change ◽

Internal Variability ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Eastern United States ◽

The Impact

AbstractTwo ensembles of dynamically downscaled climate simulations for North America—the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) featuring simulations for North America (NA-CORDEX)—are analyzed to assess the impact of using a small set of global general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs) on representing uncertainty in regional projections. Selecting GCMs for downscaling based on their equilibrium climate sensitivities is a reasonable strategy, but there are regions where the uncertainty is not fully captured. For instance, the six NA-CORDEX GCMs fail to span the full ranges produced by models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) in summer temperature projections in the western and winter precipitation projections in the eastern United States. Similarly, the four NARCCAP GCMs are overall poor at spanning the full CMIP3 ranges in seasonal temperatures. For the Southeast, the NA-CORDEX GCMs capture the uncertainty in summer but not in winter projections, highlighting one consequence of downscaling a subset of GCMs. Ranges produced by the RCMs are often wider than their driving GCMs but are sensitive to the experimental design. For example, the downscaled projections of summer precipitation are of opposite polarity in two RCM ensembles in some regions. Additionally, the ability of the RCMs to simulate observed temperature trends is affected by the internal variability characteristics of both the RCMs and driving GCMs, and is not systematically related to their historical performance. This has implications for adequately sampling the impact of internal variability on regional trends and for using model performance to identify credible projections. These findings suggest that a multimodel perspective on uncertainties in regional projections is integral to the interpretation of RCM results.

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Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Probable Maximum Floods in a Tropical Catchment

10.21203/rs.3.rs-398782/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Saad Shauket Sammen ◽

Thamer A Mohammed ◽

Abdul Halim Ghazali ◽

Lariyah M Sidek ◽

Shamsuddin Shahid ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Flow ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Climate Model ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Extreme Rainfall ◽

Peninsular Malaysia ◽

Tropical Regions ◽

Hydraulic Infrastructure ◽

The Impact

Abstract Increased extreme rainfall due to climate change will increase the probable maximum flood (PMF) and pose a severe threat the critical hydraulic infrastructure like hydroelectric and flood protection dams. As the rainfall extremes in tropical regions are highly sensitive to global warming, increase PMF can be much higher in the tropics. A study has been conducted to assess the impact of climate change on PMF in a tropical catchment located in peninsular Malaysia. A lumped hydrological model, Mike NAM, is calibrated and validated with observed climate and inflow data of Tenmengor reservoir, located in the state of Perak of Peninsular Malaysia. Regional climate model projected rainfall is used to generate probable maximum precipitation (PMP) for future periods. The hydrological model is used to simulate PMF from PMP estimated for the historical and two future periods, early (2031−2045) and late (2060−2075). The results revealed the NAM model could simulate the river flow with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.74 and root mean square error of 0.51. The application of the model with projected rainfall revealed an increase in PMP by 162 to 507% and 259 to 487% during early and late periods for different return periods ranging from 5 to 1000 years. This would cause an increase in PMF by 48.9% and 122.6% during early and late periods. A large increase in PMF indicates the possibility of devastating floods in the study area due to climate change.

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The impact of global climate change on the characteristics of seasons in the Carpathian Basin

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1409 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Csenge Dian ◽

Rita Pongrácz ◽

Judit Bartholy ◽

Attila Talamon

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Model ◽

Heat Waves ◽

Global Climate ◽

Regional Climate ◽

Weather Conditions ◽

Carpathian Basin ◽

Data Series ◽

Heating And Cooling ◽

The Impact

Similarly to many other regions, warming and extreme weather conditions (e.g. related to temperature and precipitation) are expected to increase due to the effects of climate change in the Carpathian Basin during the 21st century. Consequently, as a result of the clearly detectable warming, the number of frost days in winter decreases and the summer heat waves become more frequent. The transition between winter and summer tends to become shorter and the inter-annual variability is likely to increase. The precise definition of the transition periods between the two extremes of the annual temperature course is very important for several disciplines, e.g. building energy design, where outdoor temperature is a key input to determine the beginning and end of heating and cooling periods. The aim of this research is to examine the possible transformation of the four seasons characteristics of the Carpathian Basin in details using various specific climate indexes (e.g. monthly percentiles, daily temperature fluctuation time series) based on the data of regional climate model simulations taking into account different future scenarios. For this purpose, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are compared to historical runs, and simulated temperature data series are analyzed for the middle and end of the century.

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