scholarly journals Assessment of future water availability under climate change, considering scenarios for population growth and ageing infrastructure

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erle Kristvik ◽  
Tone M. Muthanna ◽  
Knut Alfredsen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Distribution Systems ◽  
Water Distribution ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The City ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract Climate change is likely to cause higher temperatures and alterations in precipitation patterns, with potential impacts on water resources. One important issue in this respect is inflow to drinking water reservoirs. Moreover, deteriorating infrastructures cause leakage in water distribution systems and urbanization augments water demand in cities. In this paper, a framework for assessing the combined impacts of multiple trends on water availability is proposed. The approach is focused on treating uncertainty in local climate projections in order to be of practical use to water suppliers and decision makers. An index for water availability (WAI) is introduced to quantify impacts of climate change, population growth, and ageing infrastructure, as well as the effects of implementing counteractive measures, and has been applied to the city of Bergen, Norway. Results of the study emphasize the importance of considering a range of climate scenarios due to the wide spread in global projections. For the specific case of Bergen, substantial alterations in the hydrological cycle were projected, leading to stronger seasonal variations and a more unpredictable water availability. By sensitivity analysis of the WAI, it was demonstrated how two adaptive measures, increased storage capacity and leakage reduction, can help counteract the impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

2015 ◽  
Vol 366 ◽  
pp. 34-43 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Mondal ◽  
P. P. Mujumdar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Additional Stress ◽  
Hydrological Impacts ◽  
Regional Water ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

scholarly journals Ensemble Projections of Regional Climatic Changes over Ontario, Canada

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (18) ◽  
pp. 7327-7346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiuquan Wang ◽  
Guohe Huang ◽  
Jinliang Liu ◽  
Zhong Li ◽  
Shan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Data Portal

Abstract In this study, high-resolution climate projections over Ontario, Canada, are developed through an ensemble modeling approach to provide reliable and ready-to-use climate scenarios for assessing plausible effects of future climatic changes at local scales. The Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional modeling system is adopted to conduct ensemble simulations in a continuous run from 1950 to 2099, driven by the boundary conditions from a HadCM3-based perturbed physics ensemble. Simulations of temperature and precipitation for the baseline period are first compared to the observed values to validate the performance of the ensemble in capturing the current climatology over Ontario. Future projections for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s are then analyzed to help understand plausible changes in its local climate in response to global warming. The analysis indicates that there is likely to be an obvious warming trend with time over the entire province. The increase in average temperature is likely to be varying within [2.6, 2.7]°C in the 2030s, [4.0, 4.7]°C in the 2050s, and [5.9, 7.4]°C in the 2080s. Likewise, the annual total precipitation is projected to increase by [4.5, 7.1]% in the 2030s, [4.6, 10.2]% in the 2050s, and [3.2, 17.5]% in the 2080s. Furthermore, projections of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are developed to help understand the effects of global warming on extreme precipitation events. The results suggest that there is likely to be an overall increase in the intensity of rainfall storms. Finally, a data portal named Ontario Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP) is developed to ensure decision-makers and impact researchers have easy and intuitive access to the refined regional climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals TRANSFORMASI ADAPTASI BANGUNAN DI PERMUKIMAN INFORMAL TEPI SUNGAI KAHAYAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Nindita Kresna Murti ◽  
Atiek Suprapti ◽  
Agung Budi Sardjono
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Informal Settlements ◽  
Global Environment ◽  
River Bank ◽  
Building Adaptation ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
The City ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract: Many informal settlements in Indonesia have been unable to survive, this is due to changes that occur in the neighborhood. This change resulted in the not surviving of informal settlements, but this did not affect the informal settlements in the city of Palangkaraya, settlements on the banks of the Kahayan river were even more developed, and began to develop towards the mainland.As climate change and the global environment increase, there is a tendency for people to conceptualize adaptation in residential buildings as a process of survival and how adaptation is practiced by people who face the negative impacts of climate change, for example in informal settlements on the Kahayan river bank, where residents adapt to building their homes to be able to withstand environmental changes. Where the neighborhood is located there are tides of the river, as well as other environmental factorsThis study is to find out how the Kahayan River settlement communities can survive, with changes that occur in the environment by analyzing using 6 strategies in building adaptation, namely: Adjustable, Versatile, Refitable, Convertible, Scalable, and Movable (Robert Schmid, 2009). Adaptation that occurs in these settlements, namely on building houses that follow climate change, times, and the environment.Keyword: Informal Settlements, Kahayan River Edge, Adaptation, Transformation.Abstrak: Permukiman Informal di Indonesia banyak yang sudah tidak dapat bertahan, hal ini di karenakan adanya perubahan yang terjadi di lingkungan permukiman tersebut. Perubahan ini berakibat tidak bertahannya permukiman informal, namun hal ini tidak mempengaruhi permukiman informal di Kota Palangkaraya, permukiman yang berada di tepi sungai kahayan ini malah semakin berkembang, dan mulai berkembang menuju ke daratan.Seiring dengan meningkatnya perubahan iklim dan lingkungan global, ada kecenderungan masyarakat untuk membuat konsep adaptasi pada bangunan rumah tinggal sebagai proses untuk bertahan dan bagaimana adaptasi dipraktikkan oleh orang-orang yang menghadapi dampak negatif perubahan iklim, sebagai contoh pada permukiman informal yang berada di tepi sungai Kahayan, di mana warga beradaptasi pada bangunan rumah mereka untuk dapat bertahan terhadap perubahan lingkungan. Di mana lingkungan permukiman ini terdapat pasang surut air sungai, serta faktor lingkungan lainnya.Penelitian ini untuk mengetahui cara masyarakat permukiman tepi Sungai Kahayan dapat bertahan, dengan perubahan yang terjadi di lingkungan dengan menganalisa menggunakan 6 strategi dalam adaptasi bangunan, yaitu: Adjustable, Versatile, Refitable, Convertible, Scalable, dan Movable (Robert Schmid, 2009). Adaptasi yang terjadi pada permukiman ini, yaitu pada bangunan rumah yang mengikuti perubahan iklim, jaman, dan lingkungan.Kata Kunci: Permukiman Informal, Tepi  Sungai Kahayan, Adaptasi, Transformasi.

scholarly journals Variability of the water availability in a river lake system – A case study of Lake Symsar

2016 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela B. Kuriata-Potasznik ◽  
Sławomir Szymczyk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Retention ◽  
Water Exchange ◽  
Water Losses ◽  
Local Conditions ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Lake System ◽  
Catchment Areas ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIt is predicted that climate change will result in the diminution of water resources available both on global and regional scales. Local climate change is harder to observe and therefore, while counteracting its effects, it seems advisable to undertake studies on pertinent regional and local conditions. In this research, our aim was to assess the impact of a river and its catchment on fluctuations in the water availability in a natural lake which belongs to a post-glacial river and lake system. River and lake systems behave most often like a single interacting hydrological unit, and the intensity of water exchange in these systems is quite high, which may cause temporary water losses. This study showed that water in the analyzed river and lake system was exchanged approx. every 66 days, which resulted from the total (horizontal and vertical) water exchange. Also, the management of a catchment area seems to play a crucial role in the local water availability, as demonstrated by this research, where water retention was favoured by wooded and marshy areas. More intensive water retention was observed in a catchment dominated by forests, pastures and wetlands. Wasteland and large differences in the land elevation in the tested catchment are unfavourable to water retention because they intensify soil evaporation and accelerate the water run-off outside of the catchment. Among the actions which should be undertaken in order to counteract water deficiencies in catchment areas, rational use and management of the land resources in the catchment are most often mentioned.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of climate change on the freshwater availability of Kaduna River basin, Nigeria

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gloria C. Okafor ◽  
Kingsley N. Ogbu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
The Impact

AbstractChanges in runoff trends have caused severe water shortages and ecological problems in agriculture and human well-being in Nigeria. Understanding the long-term (inter-annual to decadal) variations of water availability in river basins is paramount for water resources management and climate change adaptation. Climate change in Northern Nigeria could lead to change of the hydrological cycle and water availability. Moreover, the linkage between climatic changes and streamflow fluctuations is poorly documented in this area. Therefore, this study examined temporal trends in rainfall, temperature and runoff records of Kaduna River basin. Using appropriate statistical tools and participatory survey, trends in streamflow and their linkages with the climate indices were explored to determine their amplifying impacts on water availability and impacts on livelihoods downstream the basin. Analysis indicate variable rainfall trend with significant wet and dry periods. Unlike rainfall, temperature showed annual and seasonal scale statistically increasing trend. Runoff exhibit increasing tendency but only statistically significant on annual scale as investigated with Mann–Kendall trend test. Sen’s estimator values stood in agreement with Mann–Kendall test for all variables. Kendall tau and partial correlation results revealed the influence of climatic variables on runoff. Based on the survey, some of the hydrological implications and current water stress conditions of these fluctuations for the downstream inhabitants were itemized. With increasing risk of climate change and demand for water, we therefore recommend developing adaptive measures in seasonal regime of water availability and future work on modelling of the diverse hydrological characteristics of the entire basin.

scholarly journals A comparison between direct and indirect frameworks to evaluate impacts of climate change on streamflows: case study of Karkheh River basin in Iran

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 652-674 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Nasseri ◽  
Banafsheh Zahraie ◽  
Leila Forouhar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽  
Group Method ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Karkheh River Basin ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract In this paper, two approaches to assess the impacts of climate change on streamflows have been used. In the first approach (direct), a statistical downscaling technique was utilized to predict future streamflows based on large-scale data of general circulation models (GCMs). In the second approach (indirect), GCM outputs were downscaled to produce local climate conditions which were then used as inputs to a hydrological simulation model. In this article, some data-mining methods such as model-tree, multivariate adaptive regression splines and group method of data handling were utilized for direct downscaling of streamflows. Projections of HadCM3 model for A2 and B2 SRES scenarios were also used to simulate future climate conditions. These evaluations were done over three sub-basins of Karkheh River basin in southwest Iran. To achieve a comprehensive assessment, a global uncertainty assessment method was used to evaluate the results of the models. The results indicated that despite simplifications included in the direct downscaling, this approach is accurate enough to be used for assessing climate change impacts on streamflows without computational efforts of hydrological modeling. Furthermore, comparing future climate projections, the uncertainty associated with elimination of hydrological modeling is estimated to be high.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impacts of climate change on maize production in the Wami Ruvu basin of Tanzania

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philbert Luhunga ◽  
Ladslaus Chang'a ◽  
George Djolov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Lower Altitude ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Maize Yields ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) assessment reports confirm that climate change will hit developing countries the hardest. Adaption is on the agenda of many countries around the world. However, before devising adaption strategies, it is crucial to assess and understand the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. In this study, the impact of climate change on rain-fed maize (Zea mays) production in the Wami-Ruvu basin of Tanzania was evaluated using the Decision Support System for Agro-technological Transfer. The model was fed with daily minimum and maximum temperatures, rainfall and solar radiation for current climate conditions (1971–2000) as well as future climate projections (2010–2099) for two Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. These data were derived from three high-resolution regional climate models, used in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment program. Results showed that due to climate change future maize yields over the Wami-Ruvu basin will slightly increase relative to the baseline during the current century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. However, maize yields will decline in the mid and end centuries. The spatial distribution showed that high decline in maize yields are projected over lower altitude regions due to projected increase in temperatures in those areas.

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