scholarly journals Assessing the impacts of climate change on drought-prone regions in Bhima sub-basin (India) using the Standard Precipitation Index

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajashekhar S. Laddimath ◽  
Nagraj S. Patil ◽  
P. S. Rao ◽  
Nagendra
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Anthropogenic Activity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Standard Precipitation Index ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Rapid Urbanization

Abstract In Bhima sub-basin, the water sector is at high demand and in critical stress due to rapid urbanization. The past few decades witnessed extreme events and seasonal shifts due to anthropogenic activity triggered climate change. Thus, to evaluate the variability of extreme events, assessing the historical and future trends of precipitation in climate change scenarios is vital for making comprehensive mitigation and adaptation strategies. This paper examines the drought-prone regions by studying spatio-temporal variation of drought scenarios using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Change factor method is used to downscale precipitation data from general circulation model (GCM) outputs under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios to project future downscaled precipitation, to be input to examine the drought for 12 months. GCM and scenario uncertainty in climate change impact assessments are examined using box-whisker plots. Temporal variation for 12-month SPI shows significant changes over RCP scenarios. For the beginning of the period, 2021 precipitation is scanty for RCP 2.6 and 4.5 scenarios. Mild to moderate and severe drought events for the RCP 2.6 scenario are more predominant. Severe drought events under the RCP 6.0 scenario dominates over others. Lastly, the inconsistent pattern of drought events for RCP 8.5 is reported.

scholarly journals Nicho ecológico actual y futuro de la Leishmaniasis (Kinetoplastida: Trypanosomatidae) en la región Neotropical

2016 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
David A. Moo-Llanes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Visceral Leishmaniasis ◽  
Complex Disease ◽  
Protozoan Parasite ◽  
Neotropical Region ◽  
World Health ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables ◽  
Health Organization

The leishmaniasis is a complex disease system, caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania and transmitted to humans by the vector Lutzomyia spp. Since it is listed as a neglected disease according to the World Health Organization, the aim of this study was to determine the current and future niche of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in the Neotropical region. We built the ecological niche model (ENM) of cutaneous (N= 2 910 occurrences) and visceral (N= 851 occurrences) leishmaniasis using MaxEnt algorithm. Nine bioclimatic variables (BIO1, BIO4, BIO5, BIO6, BIO7, BIO12, BIO13, BIO14, BIO15 (downloaded from the Worldclim) and disease occurrences data were used for the construction of ENM for three periods (current, 2050 and 2070) and four climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 y 8.5). We analyzed the number of pixels occupied, identity niche, modified niche (stable, loss, and gain) and seasonality. Our analyses indicated the expansion for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), a comparison for visceral leishmaniasis (VL). We rejected the null hypothesis of niche identity between CL and VL with Hellinger’s index = 0.91 (0.92-0.98) and Schoener’s Index = 0.67 (0.85-1.00) but with an overlap niche of 56.3 %. The differences between the two leishmaniasis types were detected in relation to RCP scenarios and niche shifts (area gained / loss). Seasonality was more important for CL. We provided a current picture of CL and VL distributions and the predicted distributional changes associated to different climate change scenarios for the Neotropical region. We can anticipate that increasing range is likely although it will depend locally on the future trends in weather seasonality.

scholarly journals Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2450 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noora Veijalainen ◽  
Lauri Ahopelto ◽  
Mika Marttunen ◽  
Jaakko Jääskeläinen ◽  
Ritva Britschgi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Impact

Severe droughts cause substantial damage to different socio-economic sectors, and even Finland, which has abundant water resources, is not immune to their impacts. To assess the implications of a severe drought in Finland, we carried out a national scale drought impact analysis. Firstly, we simulated water levels and discharges during the severe drought of 1939–1942 (the reference drought) in present-day Finland with a hydrological model. Secondly, we estimated how climate change would alter droughts. Thirdly, we assessed the impact of drought on key water use sectors, with a focus on hydropower and water supply. The results indicate that the long-lasting reference drought caused the discharges to decrease at most by 80% compared to the average annual minimum discharges. The water levels generally fell to the lowest levels in the largest lakes in Central and South-Eastern Finland. Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts. Severe drought would have a significant impact on water-related sectors, reducing water supply and hydropower production. In this way drought is a risk multiplier for the water–energy–food security nexus. We suggest that the resilience to droughts could be improved with region-specific drought management plans and by including droughts in existing regional preparedness exercises.

scholarly journals Flood risk assessment methodology for planning under climate change scenarios and the corresponding change in land cover

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1370-1382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Asma Hanif ◽  
Ashwin Dhanasekar ◽  
Anthony Keene ◽  
Huishu Li ◽  
Kenneth Carlson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Army Corps ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Time Frames

Abstract Projected climate change impacts on the hydrological regime and corresponding flood risks were examined for the years 2030 (near-term) and 2050 (long-term), under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 (moderate) and 8.5 (high) emission scenarios. The United States Army Corps of Engineers' (USACE) Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System was used to simulate the complete hydrologic processes of the various dendritic watershed systems and USACEs' Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System hydraulic model was used for the two-dimensional unsteady flow flood calculations. Climate projections are based on recent global climate model simulations developed for the International Panel on Climate Change, Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. Hydrographs for frequent (high-recurrence interval) storms were derived from 30-year historical daily precipitation data and decadal projections for both time frames and RCP scenarios. Since the climate projections for each scenario only represented ten years of data, 100-year or 500-year storms cannot be derived. Hence, this novel approach of identifying frequent storms is used as an indicator to compare across the various time frames and climate scenarios. Hydrographs were used to generate inundation maps and results are used to identify vulnerabilities and formulate adaptation strategies to flooding at 43 locations worldwide.

scholarly journals Using the UKCP09 probabilistic scenarios to model the amplified impact of climate change on drainage basin sediment yield

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (11) ◽  
pp. 4401-4416 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. J. Coulthard ◽  
J. Ramirez ◽  
H. J. Fowler ◽  
V. Glenis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Baseline Values ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Emissions Scenario

Abstract. Precipitation intensities and the frequency of extreme events are projected to increase under climate change. These rainfall changes will lead to increases in the magnitude and frequency of flood events that will, in turn, affect patterns of erosion and deposition within river basins. These geomorphic changes to river systems may affect flood conveyance, infrastructure resilience, channel pattern, and habitat status as well as sediment, nutrient and carbon fluxes. Previous research modelling climatic influences on geomorphic changes has been limited by how climate variability and change are represented by downscaling from global or regional climate models. Furthermore, the non-linearity of the climatic, hydrological and geomorphic systems involved generate large uncertainties at each stage of the modelling process creating an uncertainty "cascade". This study integrates state-of-the-art approaches from the climate change and geomorphic communities to address these issues in a probabilistic modelling study of the Swale catchment, UK. The UKCP09 weather generator is used to simulate hourly rainfall for the baseline and climate change scenarios up to 2099, and used to drive the CAESAR landscape evolution model to simulate geomorphic change. Results show that winter rainfall is projected to increase, with larger increases at the extremes. The impact of the increasing rainfall is amplified through the translation into catchment runoff and in turn sediment yield with a 100% increase in catchment mean sediment yield predicted between the baseline and the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario. Significant increases are shown between all climate change scenarios and baseline values. Analysis of extreme events also shows the amplification effect from rainfall to sediment delivery with even greater amplification associated with higher return period events. Furthermore, for the 2070–2099 High emissions scenario, sediment discharges from 50-yr return period events are predicted to be 5 times larger than baseline values.

Assessing the spatio-temporal variation and uncertainty patterns of historical and future projected water resources in China

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 302-316
Author(s):  
Qiuan Zhu ◽  
Hong Jiang ◽  
Changhui Peng ◽  
Jinxun Liu ◽  
Xiuqin Fang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temporal Variation ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variation ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Future Period ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Model ◽  
The Future

The spatial and temporal variation and uncertainty of precipitation and runoff in China were compared and evaluated between historical and future periods under different climate change scenarios. The precipitation pattern is derived from observed and future projected precipitation data for historical and future periods, respectively. The runoff is derived from simulation results in historical and future periods using a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) forced with historical observed and global climate models (GCMs) future projected climate data, respectively. One GCM (CGCM3.1) under two emission scenarios (SRES A2 and SRES B1) was used for the future period simulations. The results indicated high uncertainties and variations in climate change effects on hydrological processes in China: precipitation and runoff showed a significant increasing trend in the future period but a decreasing trend in the historical period at the national level; the temporal variation and uncertainty of projected precipitation and runoff in the future period were predicted to be higher than those in the historical period; the levels of precipitation and runoff in the future period were higher than those in the historical period. The change in trends of precipitation and runoff are highly affected by different climate change scenarios. GCM structure and emission scenarios should be the major sources of uncertainty.

scholarly journals Phenology of Tempranillo and Cabernet-Sauvignon varieties cultivated in the Ribera del Duero DO: observed variability and predictions under climate change scenarios

OENO One ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Concepción Ramos ◽  
Gregory V Jones ◽  
Jesús Yuste
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Cabernet Sauvignon ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Wine Quality ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Aim: This research examined relationships between grapevine phenology and climate in the Ribera del Duero DO (Spain). The observed varieties included Tempranillo, the main variety planted in the region, and Cabernet-Sauvignon.Methods and Results: Phenological events for stages C (budbreak), I (bloom), M (véraison) and N (maturity) were analyzed for 2004-2015. Dormant period chilling and late winter heating requirements to initiate growth were evaluated and accumulated temperature (growing degree days-GDD) prior to each phenological event and in between events were examined for the role they play in influencing growth timing. The results were then used to examine future phenological changes due to climate change using eight models integrated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios – RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 – for 2030, 2050, and 2070. Accumulated temperatures after March 20th become important for initiating phenology and are strongly correlated to all growth events. The influence of water availability between budbreak and bloom and between bloom and véraison on phenological timing was also confirmed.Conclusions: The projections showed that for the RCP4.5 emission scenario, budbreak is predicted earlier by approximately 2 days for 2030, 3 days for 2050 and 5 days for 2070, while bloom is predicted to be 3 to 8 days earlier and véraison 6 to 19 days earlier for the same time periods. For the RCP8.5 emission scenario, budbreak is modeled to take place about 3 days, 5 days and 9 days earlier, respectively for 2030, 2050 and 2070. Bloom is predicted to occur about 5, 10 and 16 days earlier; véraison is predicted earlier by 10 days for 2030, 19 days for 2050, and 28 days for 2070. Maturity and the timing of harvest could be up to 23 days earlier under the RCP4.5 emission scenario and up to 35 days earlier under the RCP8.5 emission scenario. Compared to Cabernet-Sauvignon, Tempranillo exhibited greater phenological sensitivity to temperature changes in the observed time period that is likely to continue into the future with greater changes to earlier growth events projected. This sensitivity could be problematic for the region due to the variety’s historic importance and points to the need to examine adaptive measures that can help growers to respond to projected changes in climate.Significance and impact of the study: The projected climate changes in the future indicate the potential for significant changes in the phenology of Tempranillo in the Ribera del Duero DO, Spain. Given that this variety has the largest contribution and importance in this region, these changes could have impacts on wine quality, indicating the need of establishing strategies to reduce or mitigate the impact from future changes in climate.

scholarly journals Importance of Protection Service Against Erosion and Storm Events Provided by Coastal Ecosystems Under Climate Change Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacinto Cunha ◽  
Fábio Santos Cardona ◽  
Ana Bio ◽  
Sandra Ramos
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Northern Coast ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Property Damage ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Coastal Habitats ◽  
Trade Offs

Increasing sea level rise (SLR), and frequency and intensity of storms, paired with degrading ecosystems, are exposing coastal areas to higher risks of damage by storm events. Coastal natural habitats, such as dunes or saltmarshes, can reduce exposure of coastlines to these events and help to reduce the impacts and the potential damage to coastal property. The goal of our study was to evaluate the current vulnerability of the Portuguese northern coast to erosion and flooding caused by extreme events and to assess the contribution of natural habitats in reducing both vulnerability and property damages considering SLR scenarios. The Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) Coastal Vulnerability model was used to produce an Exposure Index (EI) for the northern Portuguese coastline, for the current situation, and for future International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, considering the presence and absence of coastal habitats. Results showed an increase in exposure with rising sea levels and expansion of high vulnerability areas. Coastal habitats contributed to a 28% reduction of high exposed segments for the Current scenario, corresponding to a potential reduction of coastal property damage of 105 M€ during extreme events. For the SLR scenarios, coastal habitats could potentially reduce the amount of property damage by 190 M€ in 2050 and 285 M€ in 2100, considering RCP8.5 projections. This study highlighted the importance of natural habitats in protecting vulnerable coastlines and reducing the potential damages to properties from flooding. Such results can be incorporated in management plans and support decision-making toward implementing an ecosystem-based approach to increase the resilience of coastal communities to cope with future environmental changes.

scholarly journals Contructing Climate Change Scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (1S) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mai Van Khiem
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Annual Average Temperature

Abstract: This article presents the results of constructing climate change scenarios for Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC)based on the climate change scenarios of Vietnam published in 2016 by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment. Four high- resolution regional climate models include CCAM, clWRF, PRECIS, RegCM were used to downscale results of global climate models. The results show that the annual average temperature in HCMC tends to increase in the future compared to the baseline period 1986-2005, the increase depends on each RCP scenario. By the end of the century, the annual average temperature in HCMC had an increase of about 1.7÷1.9°C under the RCP4.5 scenario and 3.2÷3.6°C under RCP8.5.Meanwhile, annual rainfall in HCMC tends to increase in most periods under both of RCP scenarios. By the end of the century, annual rainfall in HCMC increases from 15% to 25% in the RCP4.5 scenario and 20-25% in the RCP8.5 scenario. Annual rainfall in coastal areas increases more than inland areas. Keyword: Climate change scenarios, Ho Chi Minh city

scholarly journals Local patterns and trends of the Standard Precipitation Index in southern Portugal (1940–1999)

2011 ◽  
Vol 30 ◽  
pp. 11-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. C. Costa
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Geostatistical Simulation ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Standard Precipitation Index ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Spatial Homogeneity ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Geostatistical Approach

Abstract. This paper analyzes the yearly changes in precipitation from 1940 to 1999 on local and regional scales over the southern region of continental Portugal, which has large areas threatened by desertification. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) time series with the 12-month time scale is calculated for 43 meteorological stations. A geostatistical approach is used to evaluate the temporal dynamics of the spatial patterns of precipitation. The spatial homogeneity of the SPI is evaluated for each decade. Afterwards, a geostatistical simulation algorithm (direct sequential simulation) is used to produce 100 equiprobable maps of the SPI for each year. This gridded data set (6000 maps with 800 m × 800 m grid cells) is then used to produce yearly scenarios of the SPI from 1940 to 1999, and uncertainty evaluations of the produced scenarios. The linear trend of SPI values over the sixty years period is calculated at each grid cell of the scenarios' maps using a nonparametric estimator. Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney one-sided tests are used to compare the local median of the SPI in 1940/1969 with its median in 1970/1999. Results show that moderate drought conditions occur frequently over the study region, except in the northwest coast. Severe drought frequency patterns are found in areas of the centre and southeast regions. A significant trend towards drying occurs in the centre region and in the northeast. Considering the amount of water consumption and irrigation already required in some municipalities, water shortage due to drought is a viable threat in most of the Alentejo region if those local trends persist.

scholarly journals Reliability Assessment of Agricultural Reservoirs for Water Supply under Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-60
Author(s):  
Dasang Ko ◽  
Yeongcheol Joo ◽  
Taesam Lee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
The Future ◽  
Storage Rate ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Agricultural Areas

Recently, the frequency of drought occurrence and the resulting damage has increased due to climate change. Frequent severe droughts induce water shortages in agricultural reservoirs. The role of drought monitoring and prediction is critical for mitigating the effects of severe drought in agricultural areas. In this study, a compound standardized storage and precipitation index (CSSPI) was developed that adapted the existing drought index-the standardized precipitation index (SPI)-by adding hydrological data on storage rate. Furthermore, the future storage rate was simulated using autoregressive models (AR) to estimate the future CSSPI. A dataset containing records of reservoirs and precipitation at the three areas of Jungbu, Youngnam, and Honam was applied to estimate the current and future status of the CSSPI. The results indicate that the CSSPIs generated accurately present the past pattern of the observed data and that they can be considered as inputs for predicting future drought conditions.

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