scholarly journals Will China's water resources be safe in 2030?

Water Policy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lishuo Guo ◽  
Lifang Wang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Resource Management System ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
The Status ◽  
Use Efficiency

Abstract This paper is distinct from existing studies on water resources carrying capacity which usually use dimensionless data to represent trend and status of water resources carrying capacity. Here, on the grounds of the most stringent water resource management system and following the principles of water determining population, water determining city scale, water determining production and so on, water resources carrying capacity prediction model was established. The water resources carrying capacity was represented by population, which can directly reflect the status of water resources. Under the rigid constraints of water use quantity and water use efficiency, six scenarios were set to predict China's maximum population in 2030. The results demonstrated that the maximum population in each scenario is close to 1.45 billion of National Population Development Plan. It means water resources rigid constraints can support population and economic growth at the socio-economic development current pace and path. Total water use quantity will not break through the limit of 800–900 billion m3 when achieving the expected goals of social and economic development, not even more than 700 billion m3. Meanwhile, in order to relieve water resources stress, to improve water resources carrying capacity, and to accelerate construction of a water-saving society, some suggestions were put forward.

scholarly journals An Improved Ecological Footprint Method for Water Resources Utilization Assessment in the Cities

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 503
Author(s):  
Hui Li ◽  
Fen Zhao ◽  
Chunhui Li ◽  
Yujun Yi ◽  
Jiuhe Bu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Use Efficiency ◽  
Per Capita

Economic development and increasing population density along the lower reaches of the Yellow river have challenged the river’s ability to meet human and ecological demand. The evaluation of the sustainability of water resources in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is of great significance for the achievement of high-quality development in the region. Based on an improved ecological footprint method considering soil water, the spatial and temporal evolution of the water resources ecological footprint and water resources carrying capacity and evaluates the utilization of water resources in the lower Yellow River are comprehensively evaluated. The results show that agricultural water consumption in the urban agglomerations in the lower reaches of the Yellow River occupies a major position in water consumption, accounting for more than 70%. In 2013–2017, the per capita water resources ecological footprint of the cities along the lower reaches of the Yellow River decreases every year, while the water resources carrying capacity is slightly fluctuating, but remains in a relatively stable state. The deficit situation has eased, falling by 54.52% in the past five years. The water use efficiency of the lower reaches of the Yellow River has increased every year, and the water resources conflict improved significantly, after the implementation of the new environmental policy in 2015. In terms of space, the cities with the smallest per capita ecological deficits include Zibo, Zhengzhou, and Laiwu City, and Dezhou, and Kaifeng and Binzhou City have the largest. Strict water resources management measures and water pollution prevention and control regulations should be formulated to improve the water use efficiency in these areas in order to solve the problem of water shortage.

scholarly journals Water Resources Carrying Capacity Analysis of YarLung Tsangpo River Basin (I)

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 1131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lili Wang ◽  
Zhonggen Wang ◽  
Xiaocong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Use Efficiency ◽  
Yarlung Tsangpo ◽  
Yarlung Tsangpo River

Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) analysis is critically important in providing guidance to the sustainable development strategies of the YarLung Tsangpo River Basin (YTRB) due to the conflicts among the ample water resources, low development level of society, and the fragile ecological environment. This study evaluated the scheduled developing mode of YTRB in the planning years from 2016 to 2030 with a WRCC system containing three components: a hydrological informatics modeling system (HIMS), water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) model, and an index evaluation system. The averaged WRCC index is 4.29, 1.19, and 0.06 for the planning years, and 2.61, 0.98, 0.05 for the baseline years for the three sub-basins. The water deficiency problem becomes more severe in the upper sub-basin and appears in the middle sub-basin with the WRCC index greater than 1, while the water resources are not fully utilized in the lower sub-basin in the planning years, with the WRCC index far less than 1. The GDP of the three sub-basins is greater in the planning years, with 2.25 × 108, 54.60 × 108, and 3.94 × 108 dollars year−1 than those in the baseline years with 1.97 × 108, 47.71 × 108, 3.43 × 108 dollars year−1. However, GDP per capita/cubic meter keeps decreasing due to the great population growth rate and non-enhanced water use efficiency. The sustainability index is 0.04, 0.23, and 0.47 in the planning years, which is lower than the 0.04, 0.31, and 0.50 in the baseline years. Therefore, the scheduled growth rates of the population, urbanization, and GDP are a developing mode with low sustainability and are not appropriate to be continued in the planning years. Further work is needed to identify a sustainable developing mode with a decreased population growth rate, enhanced water use efficiency in the economic system, and the optimized allocation of water resources distribution in the three sub-basins with hydraulic facilities.

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Carrying Capacity of Water Resources in Shanxi Province

2014 ◽  
Vol 641-642 ◽  
pp. 53-57
Author(s):  
Yang Liu ◽  
Hao Wang ◽  
Jian Hua Wang ◽  
Xiang Dong Chen ◽  
Jia Hong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Shanxi Province ◽  
Ahp Method ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Socio Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources Utilization

Based on adequate consideration of status of water resources utilization and socio-economic development in the Shanxi Provinces, the AHP method was used to calculate the weights of each index and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of water resource carrying capacity in the Shanxi Province was carried out from 2006 to 2011. The evaluation results indicated that the overall level of the water resources carrying capacity in Shanxi Province was contained in critical state, however, a steady rise.

The Research on the Process of Water Resources Carrying Capacity and the Countermeasures of Water Resources Exploitation and Utilization

2014 ◽  
Vol 1010-1012 ◽  
pp. 1064-1069 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guo Bin Ji ◽  
Yan Hua Wang ◽  
Fei Min Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
Comprehensive Analysis ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Exploitation And Utilization ◽  
The Status ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Resources Exploitation ◽  
Exact Definition

Based on the comprehensive analysis of domestic and foreign scholars on the status on the basis of the definition, the water resources carrying capacity, we put forward a more exact definition of the water resources carrying capacity and expound its connotation, by analyzing of the research on water resources carrying capacity and its development trend of the scholars at home and abroad for many years, we put forward the effective measures to deal with the water resources.

scholarly journals Study on Coupling Coordination Relationship Between Water Use Efficiency and Economic Development

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wen-Jie Xu ◽  
Xiao-Ping Zhang ◽  
Qian Xu ◽  
Hui-Ling Gong ◽  
Qing Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Use Efficiency ◽  
Water Use ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Development System ◽  
Two Systems ◽  
Use Efficiency ◽  
Jinan City ◽  
Coordination Degree

In order to realize the sustainable utilization of water resources and the sustainable development of economy, the evaluation index system of water use efficiency system and economic development system was constructed. Entropy weight method and comprehensive evaluation method were adopted to determine the index weights and conduct comprehensive evaluation for the two systems. The coupling coordination model was used to calculate the coupling degree, coordination degree and coupling coordination degree of the two systems. The annual coupling stage and coupling coordination intensity of the two systems were analyzed and determined. The results showed that the comprehensive evaluation values of both water use efficiency system and economic development system in Jinan City increased greatly from 2008 to 2017, and showed a changing trend of ups and downs. The two systems were in the antagonistic stage, and were gradually approaching the running-in stage, indicating that they were in the state of common development. The coupling coordination degree of the two systems gradually increased in waves, progressed from the moderately to the highly coordinated coupling. In the future, if the water control path appropriate to Jinan City can be explored actively, the water-saving kinetic energy of economic development can be increased constantly, and the linkage effect between economic development and water resources utilization can be given full play to, the two systems will be in the orbit with the benign interaction and healthy harmonious development.

scholarly journals A Three-Stage Hybrid Model for Space-Time Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity: A Case Study of Jilin Province, China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tong Liu ◽  
Xiaohua Yang ◽  
Leihua Geng ◽  
Boyang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Water Transfer ◽  
Jilin Province ◽  
Development Pattern ◽  
Industrial Water ◽  
Water Efficiency ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity

Water shortage, water pollution, shrinking water area and water mobility are the main contents of the water resources crisis, which are widespread in the social and economic development of Jilin Province. In this paper, a three-stage hybrid model integrating evaluation, prediction and regulation is constructed by combining the load-balance method and the system dynamics method. Using this model, the current states of water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) in 2017 and the trend of water demand/available from 2018 to 2030 were obtained. Using the orthogonal test method, the optimal combination program of agricultural and industrial water efficiency regulation and water resources allocation was selected. The results show that the pressure of the human–water resources system in Changchun, Liaoyuan and Baicheng is greater than the support, and the other six cities are not overloaded. The water demand in Jilin Province and its nine cities will increase from 2018 to 2030, if the current socio-economic development pattern is maintained. Therefore, we change the water quantity carrying capacity index by controlling agriculture, industrial water efficiency and trans-regional water transfer. Compared with 2015, among the optimal program obtained, the change range of the water use per 10,000 RMB of agricultural output is (−5%, 25%), and the water use per 10,000 RMB of industrial added value is (−45%, −35%), and the maximum water transfer is 1.5 billion m3 per year in 2030. This study analyzes the development pattern of WRCC in the process of water conservancy modernization in Jilin Province and provides reference for other provinces to make the similar plan.

Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Liao River Basin

2012 ◽  
Vol 212-213 ◽  
pp. 423-429
Author(s):  
Yu Juan Fu ◽  
Jun Shi He ◽  
Xu Dong Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Economic Benefit ◽  
Liaohe River ◽  
The Third ◽  
Theoretical System ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Ecological Water Requirement ◽  
Social And Economic Development

In order to discuss the water resources carrying capacity in Liaohe river basin, which is defined as the ultimate water resources carrying capacity, this paper mainly calculated the water resources threshold based on the lower and upper available water resources according to the minimum and appropriate ecological water requirement. Bring forth water resources carrying capacity threshold theoretical system, multi-objective algorithm is used to calculate the ultimate water resources carrying capacity for three different social and economic development projects, such as ‘ecological maintenance’, ‘ecological soundness’ and ‘ecological soundness with water saving’, and analyzed the calculation result with the characteristics of each city. The results showed that the water resources in Yingkou and Panjin have been overtaken, that in Shenyang and Anshan are over lifted to some extent and water resources in other cities still have some space to extract. Meanwhile, the ecological social and economic benefit of the third project is the best compared with the other two.

Application of Set Pair Analysis in Water Resources Carrying Capacity Assessment

2014 ◽  
Vol 1065-1069 ◽  
pp. 2999-3003
Author(s):  
Ying Qin Chen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Sustainable Use ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Evaluation Index System ◽  
Capacity Assessment ◽  
Set Pair Analysis ◽  
Water Resources Carrying Capacity ◽  
Pair Analysis

Water carrying capacity assessment is to reveal the relationship between water resources, population, and economy, fully use water resources, and make economic development go hand in hand with protection of water resources, which simultaneously promote sustainable social and economic development. Based on the analysis of water resources carrying capacity defined, according to the measure of the demand for sustainable use of water resources, using a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to construct water resources carrying ability evaluation index system with three aspects of socio-economic systems, environmental systems and water systems, gives the five evaluation criteria, proposed set pair analysis to evaluate it, analyze the advantages of set pair analysis, and finally select Gaochun as case study areas, provide a new method for the carrying capacity of water resources.

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