Linking atmospheric circulation to daily rainfall patterns across the Murrumbidgee River Basin

2003 ◽  
Vol 48 (7) ◽  
pp. 233-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.P. Charles ◽  
B.C. Bates ◽  
N.R. Viney
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
River Health ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

The hydrological cycle in Australia covers an extraordinary range of climatic and hydrologic regimes. It is now widely accepted that Australian hydrology is significantly different from all other regions and continents with the partial exception of southern Africa. Rainfall variability is very high in almost all regions with respect to amount and the lengths of wet and dry spells. These factors are keys to the behaviour and health of Australian aquatic ecosystems and water resources. Thus assessment of how rainfall may change under a potential future climate is critical. For a case study of the Murrumbidgee River Basin (MRB), a statistical downscaling model that links broad scale atmospheric circulation to multi-site, daily precipitation is assessed using observed data. This model can be driven with climate model simulations to produce rainfall scenarios at the scale required by impacts models. These can then be used in probabilistic risk assessments of climate change impacts on river health. These issues will be discussed in the context of assessing the potential impacts of precipitation changes due to projected climate change on river health.

scholarly journals Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 107-121
Author(s):  
Priscila Esposte Coutinho ◽  
Marcio Cataldi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Human Consumption ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Sao Francisco River ◽  
São Francisco River ◽  
The Impact

In the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have resulted in alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that take into account the impact of climate change on water availability are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, beyond being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation. This fact makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this study, a flow analysis for the head of the São Francisco river basin was performed between 2010 and 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Projections of future flow were performed for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the SMAP rain-flow model, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, we can observe that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin.

Climate change impacts on water resources in North African basins

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yves Tramblay ◽  
Denis Ruelland ◽  
Lahoucine Hanich ◽  
Zoubeida Bargaoui ◽  
Hammouda Dakhlaoui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
North Africa ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
North African ◽  
Surface Water Resources ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

<p>Countries in North Africa are facing water scarcity and a high inter-annual variability of precipitation. In this context, many dams have been built to collect surface water and improve the management of existing water resources. We present the main results of a recent MISTRALS-ENVIMED research project about the potential climate change impacts on water resources at the regional and basin scales. The project notably focuses on the uncertainties linked to the different components of the modelling chain required to produce hydrological scenarios. Climate change impacts on surface water resources are investigated using an ensemble of regional climate model simulations from the CORDEX experiment under different emission scenarios and different hydrological models, adapted to the context of data scarcity. Climate scenarios under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 over North Africa indicate a future decrease in precipitation together with an increase in temperature that could have significant impacts on water resources. Indeed, a future decrease of surface water availability is expected in all major dam catchments, with a stronger decline over Morocco.</p>

scholarly journals Future evolution and uncertainty of river flow regime change in a deglaciating river basin

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan D. Mackay ◽  
Nicholas E. Barrand ◽  
David M. Hannah ◽  
Stefan Krause ◽  
Christopher R. Jackson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flow Regime ◽  
River Basin ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Model Chain

Abstract. The flow regime of glacier-fed rivers are sensitive to climate change due to strong climate-cryosphere-hydrosphere interactions. Previous modelling studies have foccused on projecting changes in annual and seasonal flow magnitude, but neglect other changes in river flow regime that could also have socio-economic and environmental impacts. This study employs a more comprehensive, signature-based analysis of climate change impacts on the river flow regime for the deglaciating Virkisá river basin in southern Iceland. 25 metrics (signatures) are derived from 21st century projections of river flow time-series to evaluate changes in different characteristics (magnitude, timing and variability) of river flow regime over sub-daily to decadal timescales. The projections are produced by a model chain that links numerical models of climate and glacio-hydrology. Five components of the model chain including the emission scenario, numerical climate model, downscaling procedure, snow/ice melt model and runoff-routing model are perturbed to propagate their uncertainties through to the river discharge projections. The signature-based analysis indicates that glacier-fed rivers will exhibit changes in the magnitude, timing and variability of river flows over a range of timescales in response to climate change. For most signatures there is high confidence in the sign of change, but the magnitude of change is uncertain and varies substantially across the different signatures. A decomposition of the projection uncertainties using analysis of variance (ANOVA) shows that all five perturbed model chain components contribute to projection uncertainty, but their relative contributions vary across the signatures (characteristic and timescale) of river flow. Signature-based decompositions of projection uncertainty can be used to better design impact studies to provide more robust projections.

Climate change and water resources in the Lower Mekong River Basin: putting adaptation into the context

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-117 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Keskinen ◽  
S. Chinvanno ◽  
M. Kummu ◽  
P. Nuorteva ◽  
A. Snidvongs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Adaptation ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Mekong River Basin ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales

Adaptation to climate change has become one of the focal points of current development discussion. This article summarises the findings from a multidisciplinary research project looking at climate change impacts and adaptation in the Mekong River Basin in Southeast Asia. The research highlights the central role that the hydrological cycle has in mediating climate change impacts on ecosystems and societies. The findings indicate that climate change should not be studied in isolation, as there are several other factors that are affecting the hydrological cycle. In the Mekong, the most important such factor is the on-going hydropower development that is likely to induce changes at least as radical as climate change, but with shorter timescales. The article concludes that climate change adaptation should broaden its view to consider environmental changes likely to occur due to different factors at various spatial and temporal scales. It is also important to recognise that climate change adaptation is a dynamic, development-orientated process that should consider also broader socio-political context. To enable this, we propose that an area-based adaptation approach should be used more actively to complement the dominant sector-based approaches.

scholarly journals Evaluation of General Circulation Models over the Upper Ouémé River Basin in the Republic of Benin

Hydrology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
André Attogouinon ◽  
Agnidé E. Lawin ◽  
Jean-François Deliège
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Data Set

This study assessed the performance of eight general circulation models (GCMs) implemented in the upper Ouémé River basin in Benin Republic (West Africa) during the Fifth Assessment Report on Climate Change. Historical rainfall simulations of the climate model of Rossby Regional Centre (RCA4) driven by eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) GCMs over a 55-year period (1951 to 2005) are evaluated using the observational data set. Apart from daily rainfall, other rainfall parameters calculated from observed and simulated rainfall were compared. U-test and other statistical criteria (R2, MBE, MAE, RMSE and standard of standard deviations) were used. According to the results, the simulations correctly reproduce the interannual variability of precipitation in the upper Ouémé River basin. However, the models tend to produce drizzle. Especially, the overestimation of April, May and November rains not only explains the overestimation of seasonal and annual cumulative rainfall but also the early onset of the rainy season and its late withdrawal. However, we noted that this overestimation magnitude varies from one model to another. As for extreme rainfall indices, the models reproduced them poorly. The CanESM2, CNRM-CM5 and EC-EARTH models perform well for daily rainfall. A trade-off is formulated to select the common MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-ESM2M, NorESM1-M and CanESM2 models for different rainfall parameters for the reliable projection of rainfall in the area. However, the MPI-ESM-LR model is a valuable tool for studying future climate change.

scholarly journals UNCERTAINTY OF CLIMATE PROJECTIONS AND AN APPROACH UTILIZING CLIMATE MODEL OUTPUTS FOR HYDROLOGIC COMPUTATION IN THE BA RIVER BASIN

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (6) ◽  
pp. 732
Author(s):  
Anh Thi Van Vu ◽  
Thuc Tran ◽  
Minh Truong Ha ◽  
Lanh Thi Minh Pham
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Basin Scale

A top-down approach begins with Global Climate Models (GCMs) is a common method for assessing climate change impacts on water resources in river basins. To overcome the coarse resolution of GCMs, dynamic downscaling by regional climate models (RCMs) with bias-correction procedures is utilized with the aim to reflect the meteorological features at the river basin scale. However, the results still entail large uncertainties. This paper examines the ability to capture the observed baseline temperature and precipitation (1986-2005) in the Ba River Basin from GCM outputs, RCM outputs, bias-corrected GCM outputs and bias-corrected RCM outputs by analyzing statistical indicators between historical simulations and observed data in 4 temperature and 6 rainfall stations. Bias-corrected results of both GCM and RCM have significantly smaller errors compared to the unbias-corrected ones. The uncertainty of future climate projection for the mid and late 21th century of the bias-corrected GCMs and RCMs are evaluated. It is found that there is still uncertainty in projected results. A concept of “Decision-Scaling” which combines top-down and bottom-up approaches is proposed to assess the climate change impacts on hydrological system to take into account uncertainties of climate projections by models.

Assessment of climate change impacts on water balance and hydrological extremes in Bang Pakong-Prachin Buri river basin, Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 186 ◽  
pp. 109544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thundorn Okwala ◽  
Sangam Shrestha ◽  
Suwas Ghimire ◽  
S. Mohanasundaram ◽  
Avishek Datta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Hydrological Extremes
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