scholarly journals RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN MIDDLE AND LONG TERM VARIATIONS OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND CLIMATE INDEX

2012 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. I_971-I_976
Author(s):  
Yoichi SHIMADA ◽  
Keiko TAKAHASHI ◽  
Shigeaki SHIOTANI
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Climate Index ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Long Term Variations

scholarly journals Variability of the Winter Wind Waves and Swell in the North Atlantic and North Pacific as Revealed by the Voluntary Observing Ship Data

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (21) ◽  
pp. 5667-5685 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey K. Gulev ◽  
Vika Grigorieva
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Wind Wave ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
Wind Sea

Abstract This paper analyses secular changes and interannual variability in the wind wave, swell, and significant wave height (SWH) characteristics over the North Atlantic and North Pacific on the basis of wind wave climatology derived from the visual wave observations of voluntary observing ship (VOS) officers. These data are available from the International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) collection of surface meteorological observations for 1958–2002, but require much more complicated preprocessing than standard meteorological variables such as sea level pressure, temperature, and wind. Visual VOS data allow for separate analysis of changes in wind sea and swell, as well as in significant wave height, which has been derived from wind sea and swell estimates. In both North Atlantic and North Pacific midlatitudes winter significant wave height shows a secular increase from 10 to 40 cm decade−1 during the last 45 yr. However, in the North Atlantic the patterns of trend changes for wind sea and swell are quite different from each other, showing opposite signs of changes in the northeast Atlantic. Trend patterns of wind sea, swell, and SWH in the North Pacific are more consistent with each other. Qualitatively the same conclusions hold for the analysis of interannual variability whose leading modes demonstrate noticeable differences for wind sea and swell. Statistical analysis shows that variability in wind sea is closely associated with the local wind speed, while swell changes can be driven by the variations in the cyclone counts, implying the importance of forcing frequency for the resulting changes in significant wave height. This mechanism of differences in variability patterns of wind sea and swell is likely more realistic than the northeastward propagation of swells from the regions from which the wind sea signal originates.

A Stochastic Model for Long-Term Trends in Significant Wave Height With a CO2 Regression Component

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik Vanem
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Maritime Transportation ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
The North ◽  
Future Return ◽  
Long Term Trends

Bad weather and rough seas continue to be a major cause for ship losses and is thus a significant contributor to the risk to maritime transportation. This stresses the importance of taking severe sea state conditions adequately into account, with due treatment of the uncertainties involved, in ship design and operation. Hence, there is a need for appropriate stochastic models describing the variability of sea states. These should also incorporate realistic projections of future return levels of extreme sea states, taking into account long-term trends related to climate change and inherent uncertainties. The stochastic model presented in this paper allows for modelling of complex dependence structures in space and time and incorporation of physical features and prior knowledge, yet at the same time remains intuitive and easily interpreted. A regression component with CO2 as an explanatory variable has been introduced in order to extract and project long-term trends in the data. The model has been fitted by significant wave height data for an area in the North Atlantic ocean. The different components of the model will be outlined in the paper, and the results will be discussed.

Statistical Uncertainty in Long-Term Distributions of Significant Wave Height

1996 ◽  
Vol 118 (4) ◽  
pp. 284-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Guedes Soares ◽  
A. C. Henriques
Keyword(s):  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Fitting Procedure ◽  
The One ◽  
Homogeneous Data

This work examines some aspects involved in the estimation of the parameters of the probability distribution of significant wave height, in particular the homogeneity of the data sets and the statistical methods of fitting a distribution to data. More homogeneous data sets are organized by collecting the data on a monthly basis and by separating the simple sea states from the combined ones. A three-parameter Weibull distribution is fitted to the data. The parameters of the fitted distribution are estimated by the methods of maximum likelihood, of regression, and of the moments. The uncertainty involved in estimating the probability distribution with the three methods is compared with the one that results from using more homogeneous data sets, and it is concluded that the uncertainty involved in the fitting procedure can be more significant unless the method of moments is not considered.

scholarly journals Long-Term and Seasonal Trends in Global Wave Height Extremes Derived from ERA-5 Reanalysis Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 1015
Author(s):  
Alicia Takbash ◽  
Ian R. Young
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Extreme Value Analysis ◽  
Winter Storms ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Significant Wave

A non-stationary extreme value analysis of 41 years (1979–2019) of global ERA5 (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis) significant wave height data is undertaken to investigate trends in the values of 100-year significant wave height, Hs100. The analysis shows that there has been a statistically significant increase in the value of Hs100 over large regions of the Southern Hemisphere. There have also been smaller decreases in Hs100 in the Northern Hemisphere, although the related trends are generally not statistically significant. The increases in the Southern Hemisphere are a result of an increase in either the frequency or intensity of winter storms, particularly in the Southern Ocean.

Comparison of Bivariate Models of the Distribution of Significant Wave Height and Peak Wave Period

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catarina S. Soares ◽  
C. Guedes Soares
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Bivariate Normal Distribution ◽  
Wave Period ◽  
Peak Period ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
The North ◽  
Bivariate Models ◽  
The North Sea

This paper presents the results of a comparison of the fit of three bivariate models to a set of 14 years of significant wave height and peak wave period data from the North Sea. One of the methods defines the joint distribution from a marginal distribution of significant wave height and a set of distributions of peak period conditional on significant wave height. Other method applies the Plackett model to the data and the third one applies the Box-Cox transformation to the data in order to make it approximately normal and then fits a bivariate normal distribution to the transformed data set. It is shown that all methods provide a good fit but each one have its own strengths and weaknesses, being the choice dependent on the data available and applications in mind.

scholarly journals ON LONG-TERM STATISTICS FOR OCEAN AND COASTAL WAVES

1978 ◽  
Vol 1 (16) ◽  
pp. 2 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel K. Ochi
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Contingency Table ◽  
Statistical Properties ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
Coastal Waves ◽  
Normal Probability ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Confidence Domain

This paper discusses the statistical properties of long-term ocean and coastal waves derived from analysis of available data. It was found from the results of the analysis that the statistical properties of wave height and period obey the bi-variate log-normal probability law. The method to determine the confidence domain for a specified confidence coefficient is presented so that reliable information in severe seas where data are always sparse can be obtained from a contingency table. Estimation of the extreme significant wave height expected in the long-term is also discussed.

Increasing anthropogenic nitrogen in the North Pacific Ocean

Science ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 346 (6213) ◽  
pp. 1102-1106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Il-Nam Kim ◽  
Kitack Lee ◽  
Nicolas Gruber ◽  
David M. Karl ◽  
John L. Bullister ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Limited Region ◽  
The North ◽  
Term Change ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
Anthropogenic Nitrogen ◽  
The North Pacific

The recent increase in anthropogenic emissions of reactive nitrogen from northeastern Asia and the subsequent enhanced deposition over the extensive regions of the North Pacific Ocean (NPO) have led to a detectable increase in the nitrate (N) concentration of the upper ocean. The rate of increase of excess N relative to phosphate (P) was found to be highest (∼0.24 micromoles per kilogram per year) in the vicinity of the Asian source continent, with rates decreasing eastward across the NPO, consistent with the magnitude and distribution of atmospheric nitrogen deposition. This anthropogenically driven increase in the N content of the upper NPO may enhance primary production in this N-limited region, potentially leading to a long-term change of the NPO from being N-limited to P-limited.

Comparison Between a Fatigue Model for Voyage Planning and Measurements of a Container Vessel

2009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wengang Mao ◽  
Jonas W. Ringsberg ◽  
Igor Rychlik ◽  
Gaute Storhaug
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Damage ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Significant Wave Height ◽  
Route Planning ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Ongoing Research ◽  
Significant Wave ◽  
The North ◽  
Fatigue Damage Accumulation ◽  
Fatigue Model

This paper presents results from an ongoing research project which aims at developing a numerical tool for route planning of container ships. The objective with the tool is to be able to schedule a route that causes minimum fatigue damage to a vessel before it leaves port. Therefore a new simple fatigue estimation model, only using encountered significant wave height, is proposed for predicting fatigue accumulation of a vessel during a voyage. The formulation of the model is developed based on narrow-band approximation. The significant response height hs, is shown to have a linear relationship with its encountered significant wave height Hs. The zero up-crossing response frequency fz, is represented as the corresponding encountered wave frequency and is expressed as a function of Hs. The capacity and accuracy of the model is illustrated by application on one container vessel’s fatigue damage accumulation, for different voyages, operating in the North Atlantic during 2008. For this vessel, all the necessary data needed in the fatigue model, and for verification of it, was obtained by measurements. The results from the proposed fatigue model are compared with the well-known and accurate rain-flow estimation. The conclusion is that the estimations made using the current fatigue model agree well with the rain-flow method for almost all of the voyages.

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