scholarly journals FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI IMPOR GANDUM INDONESIA

Agro Ekonomi ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yogi Pradeksa ◽  
Dwidjono Hadi Darwanto ◽  
Masyhuri Masyhuri
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Wheat Flour ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
National Income ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Determinant Factors ◽  
Rice Prices

The purpose of this research are to determine the factors that influence the Indonesian wheat imports and the trend of Indonesian wheat imports. The method used in this research was descriptive analysis method using time series data from the years 1992 to 2011. The variables used are national income (GNP), population, international wheat prices, domestic rice prices, exchange rates, and the use of wheat flour by industry. The trend of import volume of wheat showed that there will be additional of import wheat volume around of 11.793 ton per year. Determinant factors which significantly affecting import volume of wheat are national income (GNP), population, international wheat prices and exchange rates, while the domestic rice prices and the use of wheat flour by industry had no significant effect on the volume of imports. 

scholarly journals Analysis of Cocoa Exchange Rates in Blitar Regency

2021 ◽  
Vol 04 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pawana Nur Indah ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Random Sampling ◽  
Sampling Method ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Purposive Sampling ◽  
Cocoa Farmers

Farmer's Exchange Rate (NTP) is a proxy indicator or indicator of the approach to the level of farmer welfare. The welfare of farmers can describe the purchasing power of farmers. The purpose of this study was to determine the level of welfare of cocoa farmers. This study used time series data from NTP with the base year of 2012 = 100 as the basis for calculating the years 2019 - 2020. The location of the study was determined by the purposive sampling method in The Blitar Regency which is the center of Cocoa. The sample was selected by purposive random sampling as many as 60 Cocoa Farmers. The NTP analysis method was carried out descriptively. The results showed that the exchange rate of Cocoa Farmers in 2020 increased by 1.20 percent from 100.54 in 2019 to 101.75 in 2019. This indicates that cocoa farmers in The Blitar district are experiencing a surplus or prosperity.

scholarly journals ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI IMPOR BERAS DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-201
Author(s):  
Yona Namira ◽  
Iskandar Andi Nuhung ◽  
Mudatsir Najamuddin
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
The Us ◽  
Rice Prices ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Spss Software

This study aims to 1) identify factors that affect the import of rice in Indonesia 2) analyze the influence of these factors on imports of rice in Indonesia. The data used in this research are time series data from 1994 to 2013 from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Commerce, National Logistics Agency (Bulog), and Bank Indonesia. Multiple linear regression through SPSS software version 21 was employed to analyze the data. The test results together indicated the variables of productions, consumptions, stocks of rice, domestic rice prices, international rice prices and the rupiah against the US dollar affect the imports of rice in Indonesia.

Descriptive analysis and earthquake prediction using boxplot interpretation of soil radon time series data

2019 ◽  
Vol 154 ◽  
pp. 108861 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleem Dad Khan Tareen ◽  
Malik Sajjad Ahmed Nadeem ◽  
Kimberlee Jane Kearfott ◽  
Kamran Abbas ◽  
Muhammad Asim Khawaja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Soil Radon

scholarly journals Application of GARCH Forecasting Method in Predicting The Number of Rail Passengers (Thousands of People) in Jabodetabek Region

2022 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 198-223
Author(s):  
Farin Cyntiya Garini ◽  
Warosatul Anbiya
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Seasonal Factors ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Over Time

PT. Kereta Api Indonesia and PT. KAI Commuter Jabodetabek records time series data in the form of the number of train passengers (thousand people) in Jabodetabek Region in 2011-2020. One of the time series methods that can be used to predict the number of train passengers (thousand people) in Jabodetabek area is ARIMA method. ARIMA or also known as Box-Jenkins time series analysis method is used for short-term forecasting and does not accommodate seasonal factors. If the assumption of residual homoscedasticity is violated, the ARCH / GARCH method can be used, which explicitly models changes in residual variety over time. This study aims to model and forecast the number of train passengers (thousand people) in Jabodetabek area in 2021. Based on data analysis and processing using ARIMA method, the best model is ARIMA (1,1,1) with an AIC value of 2,159.87 and with ARCH / GARCH method, the best model is GARCH (1,1) with an AIC value of 18.314. Forecasting results obtained based on the best model can be used as a reference for related parties in managing and providing public transportation facilities, especially trains.

scholarly journals DETERMINASI EKSPOR NON MIGAS INDONESIA KE JEPANG

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Soeharjoto Soeharjoto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Per Capita

<em></em><em><em>This study aims to determine the factors that affect Indonesia's non-oil exports to Japan. The variables used are imports, exchange rates, per capita income, inflation and non-oil exports of Indonesia to Japan</em>. <em>The analytical method used is regression analysis with data used for quarterly time series data from 2005-2016.</em> <em>The results are variable imports of raw and auxiliary materials, cycles, inflation, real Japanese GDP, and the population is able to explain Indonesia's non-oil exports to Japan by 31.3 percent. Imports, exchange rates, per capita income and inflation have a positive and significant effect on non-oil and gas exports to Japan.</em></em><em> </em>

scholarly journals PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE ANALISIS SPEKTRAL

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 183
Author(s):  
NI PUTU MIRAH SRI WAHYUNI ◽  
I WAYAN SUMARJAYA ◽  
I GUSTI AYU MADE SRINADI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Spectral Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Spectral Analysis Method ◽  
Large Peak ◽  
Analysis Of Time Series

The purpose of this research is the model of forecasting rainfall using spectral analysis method. To obtain complete information on characteristics of time series data we need to examine periodicity of the data. Examining the periodicity of time series data in the frequency domain is called spectral analysis. The results of spectral analysis show that periodogram is clearly dominated by a very large peak at frequency . This frequency corresponds to period of 12 cycle per month. Based on the results of analysis of time series data rainfall is SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 where the model can be written as The result indicates minimum rainfall happen in January and maximum rainfall happen in August.

scholarly journals Software Design Challenges in Time Series Prediction Systems Using Parallel Implementation of Artificial Neural Networks

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narayanan Manikandan ◽  
Srinivasan Subha
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Parallel Implementation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Artificial Neural

Software development life cycle has been characterized by destructive disconnects between activities like planning, analysis, design, and programming. Particularly software developed with prediction based results is always a big challenge for designers. Time series data forecasting like currency exchange, stock prices, and weather report are some of the areas where an extensive research is going on for the last three decades. In the initial days, the problems with financial analysis and prediction were solved by statistical models and methods. For the last two decades, a large number of Artificial Neural Networks based learning models have been proposed to solve the problems of financial data and get accurate results in prediction of the future trends and prices. This paper addressed some architectural design related issues for performance improvement through vectorising the strengths of multivariate econometric time series models and Artificial Neural Networks. It provides an adaptive approach for predicting exchange rates and it can be called hybrid methodology for predicting exchange rates. This framework is tested for finding the accuracy and performance of parallel algorithms used.

scholarly journals Analisis Efektifitas dan Efisiensi Pajak Daerah, Retribusi Daerah dan Kontribusinya Terhadap Pendapatan Asli Daerah Kota Bukittinggi

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 358-369
Author(s):  
Yenni Del Rosa ◽  
Ingra Sovita ◽  
Mohammad Abdilla
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Average Efficiency ◽  
Library Research ◽  
Quantitative Descriptive ◽  
Average Contribution

ABSTRACT The purpose of this study was to determine the effectiveness and efficiency ratios of local taxation, local user fees and the ratio of their contribution to the PAD of Bukittinggi in 2014 - 2018. The research data were time series data (secondary data) collected through library research and analyzed using quantitative descriptive analysis. The results showed the ratio of the effectiveness of the average local tax and the ratio of the average efficiency of the local tax of Bukittinggi 98.86% (classified as effective and efficient). The ratio of the effectiveness of the average regional retribution and the ratio of the average efficiency of the regional levy of the city of Bukittinggi 108.91% (classified as very effective and very efficient). The ratio of the average contribution of local taxes to the Bukittinggi municipal PAD 42.58% (quite good) and the ratio of the average contribution of the regional levies to the Bukittinggi city PAD 28.10% (classified as moderate). ABSTRAK Tujuan penelitian untuk mengetahui rasio efektifitas dan rasio efisiensi  pajak daerah, retribusi daerah dan rasio kontribusinya terhadap PAD kota Bukittinggi tahun 2014 – 2018. Data penelitian berupa data time series (data sekunder)  dikumpulkan melalui library research dan dianalisis menggunakan analisis deskriptif kuantitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan rasio efektifitas rata-rata pajak daerah dan rasio efisiensi rata-rata pajak daerah  kota Bukittinggi 98.86% (kategori efektif dan efisien). Rasio efektifitas rata-rata retribusi daerah dan rasio efisiensi rata-rata retribusi daerah kota Bukittinggi 108.91% (tergolong sangat efektif dan sangat efisien). Rasio kontribusi rata-rata pajak daerah terhadap PAD kota Bukittinggi 42.58% (cukup baik) dan rasio kontribusi rata-rata retribusi daerah terhadap PAD kota Bukittinggi 28.10% (sedang).  

scholarly journals Sub Sektor Pariwisata terhadap Pembangunan Daerah di Kabupaten Lumajang

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 51-56
Author(s):  
Herman Diartho Cahyo
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Local Revenue ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Data Analysis Method ◽  
Tourism Sector

This research is a Descriptive research which aims to find out how much the level of labor elasticity of tourism subsector in Lumajnag regency, to know contribution of tourism subsector to local revenue (PAD) in Lumajang Regency, and to know the growth of labor absorption in tourism sector in Lumajang regency. The type of data used in this research is secondary data in the form of time series data with the object of research on the tourism subsector in Lumajang District and data obtained from the Department of Tourism, Department of Manpower and Dinas revenue Lumajang District in 2011-2017. Data analysis method used in this research is elasticity and proportion analysis. The results of this study indicate that the ability of the tourism subsector is not much in the absorption of labor that is equal to -1.49 percent of the number of workers who have worked or categorized as inelastic. In addition, the tourism subsector also did not contribute a considerable amount during the period of 2011-2017 to the Regional Original Income of Lumajang Regency which averaged only 1.41 percent. Overall contribution or contribution given by the tourism sector from year to year during the period 2011-2017 tends to decrease.

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