scholarly journals Phenology dictates the import of climate change on geographic distributions of six co-occurring North American grasshoppers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Lemoine
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Important Determinant ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Grasshopper Species ◽  
Early Season ◽  
Late Season ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Geographic Distributions

Throughout the last century, climate change has altered the geographic distributions of many species. Insects, in particular, vary in their ability to track changing climates, and it is likely that phenology is an important determinant of how well expands can either expand or shift their geographic distributions in response to climate change. Grasshoppers are an ideal group to test this hypothesis, given that co-occurring confamilial, and even congeneric, species can differ in phenology. Here, I tested the hypothesis that early- and late-season species should possess different range expansion potentials, as estimated by habitat suitability from ecological niche models. I used nine different modeling techniques to estimate habitat suitability of six grasshopper species of varying phenology under two climate scenarios for the year 2050. My results support the hypothesis that phenology is an important determinant of range expansion potential. Early-season species might shift northward during the spring, while the modeled geographic distributions of late-season species were generally constant under climate change, likely because they were pre-adapted to hot and dry conditions. Phenology might therefore be a good predictor of how insect distributions might change in the future, and conservation efforts might focus most heavily on early-season species that are most impacted by climate change.

scholarly journals Effects of Climatic Change on the Potential Distribution of Lycoriella Species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of Economic Importance

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 831
Author(s):  
Roberta Marques ◽  
Juliano Lessa Pinto Duarte ◽  
Adriane da Fonseca Duarte ◽  
Rodrigo Ferreira Krüger ◽  
Uemmerson Silva da Cunha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Greenhouse Production ◽  
Production Areas

Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g., mushrooms, strawberries, and nurseries). The current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade areas in countries across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under future climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in the distribution of these three species of Lycoriella. Stable environmental suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted in key countries (e.g., USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.

scholarly journals Impacts of compound hot–dry extremes on US soybean yields

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1371-1391
Author(s):  
Raed Hamed ◽  
Anne F. Van Loon ◽  
Jeroen Aerts ◽  
Dim Coumou
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Yield Variability ◽  
Critical Element ◽  
Early Season ◽  
Soybean Yield ◽  
Late Season ◽  
The Us ◽  
Dry Conditions

Abstract. The US agriculture system supplies more than one-third of globally traded soybean, and with 90 % of US soybean produced under rainfed agriculture, soybean trade is particularly sensitive to weather and climate variability. Average growing season climate conditions can explain about one-third of US soybean yield variability. Additionally, crops can be sensitive to specific short-term weather extremes, occurring in isolation or compounding at key moments throughout crop development. Here, we identify the dominant within-season climate drivers that can explain soybean yield variability in the US, and we explore the synergistic effects between drivers that can lead to severe impacts. The study combines weather data from reanalysis and satellite-informed root zone soil moisture fields with subnational crop yields using statistical methods that account for interaction effects. On average, our models can explain about two-thirds of the year-to-year yield variability (70 % for all years and 60 % for out-of-sample predictions). The largest negative influence on soybean yields is driven by high temperature and low soil moisture during the summer crop reproductive period. Moreover, due to synergistic effects, heat is considerably more damaging to soybean crops during dry conditions and is less problematic during wet conditions. Compounding and interacting hot and dry (hot–dry) summer conditions (defined by the 95th and 5th percentiles of temperature and soil moisture respectively) reduce yields by 2 standard deviations. This sensitivity is 4 and 3 times larger than the sensitivity to hot or dry conditions alone respectively. Other relevant drivers of negative yield responses are lower temperatures early and late in the season, excessive precipitation in the early season, and dry conditions in the late season. We note that the sensitivity to the identified drivers varies across the spatial domain. Higher latitudes, and thus colder regions, are positively affected by high temperatures during the summer period. On the other hand, warmer southeastern regions are positively affected by low temperatures during the late season. Historic trends in identified drivers indicate that US soybean production has generally benefited from recent shifts in weather except for increasing rainfall in the early season. Overall, warming conditions have reduced the risk of frost in the early and late seasons and have potentially allowed for earlier sowing dates. More importantly, summers have been getting cooler and wetter over the eastern US. Nevertheless, despite these positive changes, we show that the frequency of compound hot–dry summer events has remained unchanged over the 1946–2016 period. In the longer term, climate models project substantially warmer summers for the continental US, although uncertainty remains as to whether this will be accompanied by drier conditions. This highlights a critical element to explore in future studies focused on US agricultural production risk under climate change.

Woolly Cupgrass (Eriochloa villosa) Control in Corn (Zea mays) with Pendimethalin/Triazine Combinations and Cultivation

Weed Science ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 405-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph F. Schuh ◽  
R. Gordon Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Zea Mays ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Corn Yield ◽  
Early Season ◽  
Late Season ◽  
Field Corn ◽  
Woolly Cupgrass ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Eriochloa Villosa ◽  
Adverse Environmental Conditions

In 1985, 1986, and 1987, pendimethalin at 1.7 kg ai/ha plus 2.2 kg ai/ha cyanazine, 2.2 kg ai/ha atrazine, or 1.1 kg/ha atrazine plus 1.1 kg/ha cyanazine was applied delayed preemergence, early postemergence, and postemergence with and without cultivation to evaluate woolly cupgrass control and corn injury. Results varied from year to year. Dry conditions in 1985 resulted in poorer woolly cupgrass control while cold and wet environments in 1987 resulted in corn injury and reduced yields from postemergence treatments containing cyanazine. Good early-season suppression of woolly cupgrass deteriorated to less than 75% control by the late-season evaluation in all experiments. The best woolly cupgrass control and highest corn yields were usually achieved when herbicide applications were followed by row cultivation. Corn yield increases averaged 28, 17, and 11% in 1985, 1986, and 1987, respectively, when a herbicide treatment was followed by row cultivation. Pendimethalin/triazine treatments followed with a row cultivation adequately suppressed woolly cupgrass in field corn, but adverse environmental conditions often reduced herbicide effectiveness or increased corn injury.

scholarly journals Effects of climatic change on the potential distribution of Lycoriella species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of economic importance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberta Marques ◽  
Juliano Lessa Duarte ◽  
Adriane da Fonseca ◽  
Rodrigo F Krüger ◽  
Uemmerson Silva ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Greenhouse Production ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Production Areas

Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g. mushrooms, strawberry, and nurseries). Current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under climate change future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in distributions of these species of Lycoriella. Stable suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted for key countries (e.g. USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.

scholarly journals Effects of Climatic Change on the Potential Distribution of Lycoriella Species (Diptera: Sciaridae) of Economic Importance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberta Marques ◽  
Juliano Lessa Pinto Duarte ◽  
Adriane da Fonseca Duarte ◽  
Rodrigo Ferreira Krüger ◽  
Uemerson Silva da Cunha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Potential Range ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Greenhouse Production ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Production Areas

Lycoriella species (Sciaridae) are responsible for significant economic losses in greenhouse production (e.g. mushrooms, strawberry, and nurseries). Current distributions of species in the genus are restricted to cold-climate countries. Three species of Lycoriella are of particular economic concern in view of their ability to invade across the Northern Hemisphere. We used ecological niche models to determine the potential for range expansion under climate change future scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) in distributions of these species of Lycoriella. Stable suitability under climate change was a dominant theme in these species; however, potential range increases were noted for key countries (e.g. USA, Brazil, and China). Our results illustrate the potential for range expansion in these species in the Southern Hemisphere, including some of the highest greenhouse production areas in the world.

scholarly journals Mapping current and potential future distributions of the oak tree (Quercus aegilops) in the Kurdistan Region, Iraq

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nabaz R. Khwarahm
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Kurdistan Region ◽  
Oak Tree

Abstract Background The oak tree (Quercus aegilops) comprises ~ 70% of the oak forests in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI). Besides its ecological importance as the residence for various endemic and migratory species, Q. aegilops forest also has socio-economic values—for example, as fodder for livestock, building material, medicine, charcoal, and firewood. In the KRI, Q. aegilops has been degrading due to anthropogenic threats (e.g., shifting cultivation, land use/land cover changes, civil war, and inadequate forest management policy) and these threats could increase as climate changes. In the KRI and Iraq as a whole, information on current and potential future geographical distributions of Q. aegilops is minimal or not existent. The objectives of this study were to (i) predict the current and future habitat suitability distributions of the species in relation to environmental variables and future climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070); and (ii) determine the most important environmental variables controlling the distribution of the species in the KRI. The objectives were achieved by using the MaxEnt (maximum entropy) algorithm, available records of Q. aegilops, and environmental variables. Results The model demonstrated that, under the RCP2.6 2070 and RCP8.5 2070 climate change scenarios, the distribution ranges of Q. aegilops would be reduced by 3.6% (1849.7 km2) and 3.16% (1627.1 km2), respectively. By contrast, the species ranges would expand by 1.5% (777.0 km2) and 1.7% (848.0 km2), respectively. The distribution of the species was mainly controlled by annual precipitation. Under future climate change scenarios, the centroid of the distribution would shift toward higher altitudes. Conclusions The results suggest (i) a significant suitable habitat range of the species will be lost in the KRI due to climate change by 2070 and (ii) the preference of the species for cooler areas (high altitude) with high annual precipitation. Conservation actions should focus on the mountainous areas (e.g., by establishment of national parks and protected areas) of the KRI as climate changes. These findings provide useful benchmarking guidance for the future investigation of the ecology of the oak forest, and the categorical current and potential habitat suitability maps can effectively be used to improve biodiversity conservation plans and management actions in the KRI and Iraq as a whole.

scholarly journals Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Northward Range Expansion of Invasive Weeds in South Korea

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1604
Author(s):  
Sun Hee Hong ◽  
Yong Ho Lee ◽  
Gaeun Lee ◽  
Do-Hun Lee ◽  
Pradeep Adhikari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Southern Region ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Invasive Weeds ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Control And Management

Predicting the distribution of invasive weeds under climate change is important for the early identification of areas that are susceptible to invasion and for the adoption of the best preventive measures. Here, we predicted the habitat suitability of 16 invasive weeds in response to climate change and land cover changes in South Korea using a maximum entropy modeling approach. Based on the predictions of the model, climate change is likely to increase habitat suitability. Currently, the area of moderately suitable and highly suitable habitats is estimated to be 8877.46 km2, and 990.29 km2, respectively, and these areas are expected to increase up to 496.52% by 2050 and 1439.65% by 2070 under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 scenario across the country. Although habitat suitability was estimated to be highest in the southern regions (<36° latitude), the central and northern regions are also predicted to have substantial increases in suitable habitat areas. Our study revealed that climate change would exacerbate the threat of northward weed invasions by shifting the climatic barriers of invasive weeds from the southern region. Thus, it is essential to initiate control and management strategies in the southern region to prevent further invasions into new areas.

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