scholarly journals Impacts of compound hot–dry extremes on US soybean yields

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1371-1391
Author(s):  
Raed Hamed ◽  
Anne F. Van Loon ◽  
Jeroen Aerts ◽  
Dim Coumou
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Yield Variability ◽  
Critical Element ◽  
Early Season ◽  
Soybean Yield ◽  
Late Season ◽  
The Us ◽  
Dry Conditions

Abstract. The US agriculture system supplies more than one-third of globally traded soybean, and with 90 % of US soybean produced under rainfed agriculture, soybean trade is particularly sensitive to weather and climate variability. Average growing season climate conditions can explain about one-third of US soybean yield variability. Additionally, crops can be sensitive to specific short-term weather extremes, occurring in isolation or compounding at key moments throughout crop development. Here, we identify the dominant within-season climate drivers that can explain soybean yield variability in the US, and we explore the synergistic effects between drivers that can lead to severe impacts. The study combines weather data from reanalysis and satellite-informed root zone soil moisture fields with subnational crop yields using statistical methods that account for interaction effects. On average, our models can explain about two-thirds of the year-to-year yield variability (70 % for all years and 60 % for out-of-sample predictions). The largest negative influence on soybean yields is driven by high temperature and low soil moisture during the summer crop reproductive period. Moreover, due to synergistic effects, heat is considerably more damaging to soybean crops during dry conditions and is less problematic during wet conditions. Compounding and interacting hot and dry (hot–dry) summer conditions (defined by the 95th and 5th percentiles of temperature and soil moisture respectively) reduce yields by 2 standard deviations. This sensitivity is 4 and 3 times larger than the sensitivity to hot or dry conditions alone respectively. Other relevant drivers of negative yield responses are lower temperatures early and late in the season, excessive precipitation in the early season, and dry conditions in the late season. We note that the sensitivity to the identified drivers varies across the spatial domain. Higher latitudes, and thus colder regions, are positively affected by high temperatures during the summer period. On the other hand, warmer southeastern regions are positively affected by low temperatures during the late season. Historic trends in identified drivers indicate that US soybean production has generally benefited from recent shifts in weather except for increasing rainfall in the early season. Overall, warming conditions have reduced the risk of frost in the early and late seasons and have potentially allowed for earlier sowing dates. More importantly, summers have been getting cooler and wetter over the eastern US. Nevertheless, despite these positive changes, we show that the frequency of compound hot–dry summer events has remained unchanged over the 1946–2016 period. In the longer term, climate models project substantially warmer summers for the continental US, although uncertainty remains as to whether this will be accompanied by drier conditions. This highlights a critical element to explore in future studies focused on US agricultural production risk under climate change.

scholarly journals Impacts of hot-dry compound extremes on US soybean yields

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raed Hamed ◽  
Anne F. Van Loon ◽  
Jeroen Aerts ◽  
Dim Coumou
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Yield Variability ◽  
Soybean Yield ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Us ◽  
Dry Conditions

Abstract. The US agriculture system supplies more than one-third of globally-traded soybean and with 90 % of US soybean produced under rainfed agriculture, soybean trade is particularly sensitive to weather and climate variability. Average growing season climate conditions can explain about one-third of US soybean yield variability. Additionally, crops can be sensitive to specific short-term weather extremes, occurring in isolation or compounding at key moments throughout crop development. Here, we identify the dominant within-season climate drivers that can explain soybean yield variability in the US, and explore synergistic effects between drivers that can lead to severe impacts. The study combines weather data from reanalysis, satellite-based evapotranspiration and root-zone soil moisture with sub-national crop yields using statistical methods that account for interaction effects. Our model can explain on average about half of the year-to-year yield variability (60 % on all years and 40 % on out-of-sample predictions). The largest negative influence on soybean yields is driven by high temperature and low soil moisture during the summer crop reproductive period. Moreover, due to synergistic effects, heat is considerably more damaging to soybean crops during dry conditions, and less so during wet conditions. Compound and interacting hot and dry August conditions (defined by the 95th and 5th percentiles of temperature and soil moisture, respectively) reduce yields by 1.25 standard deviation. This sensitivity is, respectively, 6 and 3 times larger than the sensitivity to hot or dry conditions alone. Other important drivers of negative yield responses are lower evapotranspiration early in the season and lower minimum temperature late in the season, both likely reflecting an increased risk of frost. The sensitivity to the identified drivers varies across the spatial domain with higher latitudes, and thus colder regions, being less sensitive to hot-dry August months. Historic trends in identified drivers indicates that US soybean has generally benefited from recent shifts in weather. Overall warming conditions have reduced the risk of frost in early and late-season and potentially allowed for earlier sowing dates. More importantly, summers have been getting cooler and wetter over eastern US. Still, despite these positive changes, we show that the frequency of compound hot-dry August month has remained unchanged over 1946–2016. Moreover, in the longer term, climate models project substantially warmer summers for the continental US which likely creates risks for soybean production.

The relationship between extreme weather and low crop yields

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matias Heino ◽  
Weston Anderson ◽  
Michael Puma ◽  
Matti Kummu
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Yield Variability ◽  
Weather Events

<p>It is well known that climate extremes and variability have strong implications for crop productivity. Previous research has estimated that annual weather conditions explain a third of global crop yield variability, with explanatory power above 50% in several important crop producing regions. Further, compared to average conditions, extreme events contribute a major fraction of weather induced crop yield variations. Here we aim to analyse how extreme weather events are related to the likelihood of very low crop yields at the global scale. We investigate not only the impacts of heat and drought on crop yields but also excess soil moisture and abnormally cool temperatures, as these extremes can be detrimental to crops as well. In this study, we combine reanalysis weather data with national and sub-national crop production statistics and assess relationships using statistical copulas methods, which are especially suitable for analysing extremes. Further, because irrigation can decrease crop yield variability, we assess how the observed signals differ in irrigated and rainfed cropping systems. We also analyse whether the strength of the observed statistical relationships could be explained by socio-economic factors, such as GDP, social stability, and poverty rates. Our preliminary results indicate that extreme heat and cold as well as soil moisture abundance and excess have a noticeable effect on crop yields in many areas around the globe, including several global bread baskets such as the United States and Australia. This study will increase understanding of extreme weather-related implications on global food production, which is relevant also in the context of climate change, as the frequency of extreme weather events is likely to increase in many regions worldwide.</p>

scholarly journals Phenology dictates the import of climate change on geographic distributions of six co-occurring North American grasshoppers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nathan Lemoine
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Range Expansion ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Important Determinant ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Grasshopper Species ◽  
Early Season ◽  
Late Season ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Geographic Distributions

Throughout the last century, climate change has altered the geographic distributions of many species. Insects, in particular, vary in their ability to track changing climates, and it is likely that phenology is an important determinant of how well expands can either expand or shift their geographic distributions in response to climate change. Grasshoppers are an ideal group to test this hypothesis, given that co-occurring confamilial, and even congeneric, species can differ in phenology. Here, I tested the hypothesis that early- and late-season species should possess different range expansion potentials, as estimated by habitat suitability from ecological niche models. I used nine different modeling techniques to estimate habitat suitability of six grasshopper species of varying phenology under two climate scenarios for the year 2050. My results support the hypothesis that phenology is an important determinant of range expansion potential. Early-season species might shift northward during the spring, while the modeled geographic distributions of late-season species were generally constant under climate change, likely because they were pre-adapted to hot and dry conditions. Phenology might therefore be a good predictor of how insect distributions might change in the future, and conservation efforts might focus most heavily on early-season species that are most impacted by climate change.

The impacts of hot-dry compound extremes on US Soybean yields

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raed Hamed ◽  
Anne Van Loon ◽  
Jeroen Aerts ◽  
Dim Coumou
Keyword(s):  
Crop Yield ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Root Zone ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Yield Variability ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Us ◽  
Weather And Climate

<p>The US agriculture system supplies more than one third of globally traded soybean, of which 90% is produced under rainfed agriculture. This makes the commodity particularly sensitive to weather and climate variability. Previous research has shown that annually averaged climate conditions explain about a third of global crop yield variability. Additionally, although less studied so far, crops are sensitive to specific short-term weather conditions, isolated or co-occurring at key moments throughout the growing season. Here we aim to identify key within-season weather and climate variables that can explain soybean yield variability in the US while exploring synergies between drivers that can have compounding impacts. The study combines weather data from reanalysis and satellite-based evapotranspiration and root-zone soil moisture with sub-national crop yield estimates using statistical methods that account for interaction effects. We also analyze the historic changes in identified key driving conditions in order to explore the effects of current climatic trends on yields. Our preliminary results indicate positive yield response to higher minimum temperature early and late in the season whereas the largest effect on soybeans is driven by the harmful co-occurrence of high temperature and low moisture levels during the summer flowering period significantly reducing yields on average in the US  by one standard deviation. The magnitude of the response to climate drivers varies across the spatial domain highlighting the need to focus on local and season specific management strategies. On the bright side, recent trends in temperature have not increased the likelihood of low yields. This is because the overall warming conditions reduce the risk of frost early and late in the season. Conversely, a peculiar cooling trend during the summer period attributed to agricultural land use is beneficial for yields when crops are most sensitive to high temperatures. Our study provides a detailed understanding of the current relationship between climate and soybean yields in the US. This is particularly relevant for adaptation and mitigation strategies aimed at avoiding low yields in a context of increasing food demand and climate change.</p>

Woolly Cupgrass (Eriochloa villosa) Control in Corn (Zea mays) with Pendimethalin/Triazine Combinations and Cultivation

Weed Science ◽  
1989 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 405-411 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph F. Schuh ◽  
R. Gordon Harvey
Keyword(s):  
Zea Mays ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Corn Yield ◽  
Early Season ◽  
Late Season ◽  
Field Corn ◽  
Woolly Cupgrass ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Eriochloa Villosa ◽  
Adverse Environmental Conditions

In 1985, 1986, and 1987, pendimethalin at 1.7 kg ai/ha plus 2.2 kg ai/ha cyanazine, 2.2 kg ai/ha atrazine, or 1.1 kg/ha atrazine plus 1.1 kg/ha cyanazine was applied delayed preemergence, early postemergence, and postemergence with and without cultivation to evaluate woolly cupgrass control and corn injury. Results varied from year to year. Dry conditions in 1985 resulted in poorer woolly cupgrass control while cold and wet environments in 1987 resulted in corn injury and reduced yields from postemergence treatments containing cyanazine. Good early-season suppression of woolly cupgrass deteriorated to less than 75% control by the late-season evaluation in all experiments. The best woolly cupgrass control and highest corn yields were usually achieved when herbicide applications were followed by row cultivation. Corn yield increases averaged 28, 17, and 11% in 1985, 1986, and 1987, respectively, when a herbicide treatment was followed by row cultivation. Pendimethalin/triazine treatments followed with a row cultivation adequately suppressed woolly cupgrass in field corn, but adverse environmental conditions often reduced herbicide effectiveness or increased corn injury.

Moisture and humidity dependence of the above-ground cosmic-ray neutron intensity revised

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Markus Köhli ◽  
Jannis Weimar ◽  
Benjamin Fersch ◽  
Roland Baatz ◽  
Martin Schrön ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Count Rate ◽  
Cosmic Ray ◽  
Mathematical Treatment ◽  
Specific Response ◽  
Parameter Equation ◽  
Neutron Count ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
Humidity Dependence

<p>The novel method of Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) allows non-invasive soil moisture measurements at a hectometer scaled footprint. Up to now, the conversion of soil moisture to a detectable neutron count rate relies mainly on the equation presented by Desilets et al. (2010). While in general a hyperbolic expression can be derived from theoretical considerations, their empiric parameterisation needs to be revised for two reasons. Firstly, a rigorous mathematical treatment reveals that the values of the four parameters are ambiguous because their values are not independent. We find a 3-parameter equation with unambiguous values of the parameters which is equivalent in any other respect to the 4-parameter equation. Secondly, high-resolution Monte-Carlo simulations revealed a systematic deviation of the count rate to soil moisture relation especially for extremely dry conditions as well as very humid conditions. That is a hint, that a smaller contribution to the intensity was forgotten or not adequately treated by the conventional approach. Investigating the above-ground neutron flux by a broadly based Monte-Carlo simulation campaign revealed a more detailed understanding of different contributions to this signal, especially targeting air humidity corrections. The packages MCNP and URANOS were used to derive a function able to describe the respective dependencies including the effect of different hydrogen pools and the detector-specific response function. The new relationship has been tested at three exemplary measurement sites and its remarkable performance allows for a promising prospect of more comprehensive data quality in the future.</p>

scholarly journals Sampling density and date influence spatial representation of tree ring reconstructions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin T. Maxwell ◽  
Grant L. Harley ◽  
Trevis J. Matheus ◽  
Brandon M. Strange ◽  
Kayla Van Aken ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Tree Rings ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Ring Network ◽  
Tree Ring Data ◽  
The Us

Abstract. Our understanding of the natural variability of hydroclimate before the instrumental period (ca. 1900 in the United States; US) is largely dependent on tree-ring-based reconstructions. Large-scale soil moisture reconstructions from a network of tree-ring chronologies have greatly improved our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability in hydroclimate conditions, particularly extremes of both drought and pluvial (wet) events. However, certain regions within these large-scale reconstructions in the US have a sparse network of tree-ring chronologies. Further, several chronologies were collected in the 1980s and 1990s, thus our understanding of the sensitivity of radial growth to soil moisture in the US is based on a period that experienced multiple extremely severe droughts and neglects the impacts of recent, rapid global change. In this study, we expanded the tree-ring network of the Ohio River Valley in the US, a region with sparse coverage. We used a total of 72 chronologies across 15 species to examine how increasing the density of the tree-ring network influences the representation of reconstructing the Palmer Meteorological Drought Index (PMDI). Further, we tested how the sampling date influenced the reconstruction models by creating reconstructions that ended in the year 1980 and compared them to reconstructions ending in 2010 from the same chronologies. We found that increasing the density of the tree-ring network resulted in reconstructed values that better matched the spatial variability of instrumentally recorded droughts and to a lesser extent, pluvials. By sampling tree in 2010 compared to 1980, the sensitivity of tree rings to PMDI decreased in the southern portion of our region where severe drought conditions have been absent over recent decades. We emphasize the need of building a high-density tree-ring network to better represent the spatial variability of past droughts and pluvials. Further, chronologies on the International Tree-Ring Data Bank need updating regularly to better understand how the sensitivity of tree rings to climate may vary through time.

Seasonal ecosystem vulnerability to climatic anomalies in the Mediterranean

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Vogel
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Mediterranean Basin ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Western Mediterranean ◽  
Ecosystem Productivity ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Ecosystem Vulnerability ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Mediterranean Basin

<p>The ecosystems of the Mediterranean Basin are particularly prone to climate change and related alterations in climatic anomalies. The seasonal timing of climatic anomalies is crucial for the assessment of the corresponding ecosystem impacts; however, the incorporation of seasonality is neglected in many studies. We quantify ecosystem vulnerability by investigating deviations of the climatic drivers temperature and soil moisture during phases of low ecosystem productivity for each month of the year over the period 1999 – 2019. The fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR) is used as a proxy for ecosystem productivity. Air temperature is obtained from the reanalysis data set ERA5 Land and soil moisture and FAPAR satellite products are retrieved from ESA CCI and Copernicus Global Land Service, respectively. Our results show that Mediterranean ecosystems are vulnerable to three soil moisture regimes during the course of the year. A phase of vulnerability to hot and dry conditions during late spring to midsummer is followed by a period of vulnerability to cold and dry conditions in autumn. The third phase is characterized by cold and wet conditions coinciding with low ecosystem productivity in winter and early spring. These phases illustrate well the shift between a soil moisture-limited regime in summer and an energy-limited regime in winter in the Mediterranean Basin. Notably, the vulnerability to hot and dry conditions during the course of the year is prolonged by several months in the Eastern Mediterranean compared to the Western Mediterranean. Our approach facilitates a better understanding of ecosystem vulnerability at certain stages during the year and is easily transferable to other study areas and ecoclimatological variables.</p>

The Role of Eco-Friendly Soil Amendments Co-Application on the Performance of Lingrain (Linum Usitatissimum L.) Under Late-Season Irrigation Limitation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdieh Fallah ◽  
Reza Amirnia ◽  
Hashem Hadi ◽  
Abdollah Hassanzadeh-Ghorttapeh
Keyword(s):  
Green Manure ◽  
Trifolium Pratense ◽  
Synergistic Effects ◽  
Soil Amendments ◽  
Leaf Nitrogen ◽  
Plant Performance ◽  
Water Limitation ◽  
Late Season ◽  
Single Use

Abstract This study's main purpose was to investigate the probable amelioration of limited irrigation conditions by soil amendments for lingrain plants. The experiment was accomplished as a completely randomized factorial design along with three replications. The first factor was green manure (without (Gc) and with Trifolium pratense (Gr)), the second factor consisted of Rhizophagus irregularis mycorrhiza (Fm), vermicompost (Fv), both of mycorrhiza and vermicompost (Fm+v) and none of them (Fc), and also the third factor was irrigation regime (full irrigation and late-season water limitation). Green manure, vermicompost and mycorrhiza single-use enhanced the plant performance under water limitation conditions in comparison with the control. However, in the presence of vermicompost, along with green manure or mycorrhiza developed a positive synergistic effect on most of the traits. Combining green manure with the dual fertilizer (Fm+v) resulted in the vermicompost and mycorrhiza synergistic effects, especially under limited irrigation. Consequently, the triple fertilizer (Gr×Fm+v) experienced the highest amount of LRWC, root colonization, leaf nitrogen, chlorophyll a, chlorophyll b, carotenoids, antioxidant enzymes activity, grain yield and oil yield, which would lead to more resistance of plants to limited irrigation conditions.

Availability of existing early-season rice cultivars as resources for selecting high-yielding short-duration cultivars of machine-transplanted late-season rice

2019 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 218-226
Author(s):  
Jiana Chen ◽  
Min Huang ◽  
Fangbo Cao ◽  
Xiaohong Yin ◽  
Yingbin Zou
Keyword(s):  
Grain Yield ◽  
Short Duration ◽  
Good Yield ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Hunan Province ◽  
Rice Cultivars ◽  
Growth Duration ◽  
Yield Performance ◽  
Early Season ◽  
Late Season

AbstractHigh-yielding short-duration cultivars are required due to the development of mechanized large-scale double-season rice (i.e. early- and late-season rice) production in China. The objective of this study was to identify whether existing early-season rice cultivars can be used as resources to select high-yielding, short-duration (less than 115 days) cultivars of machine-transplanted late-season rice. Field experiments were conducted in Yongan, Hunan Province, China in the early and late rice-growing seasons in 2015 and 2016. Eight early-season rice cultivars (Liangyou 6, Lingliangyou 211, Lingliangyou 268, Xiangzaoxian 32, Xiangzaoxian 42, Zhongjiazao 17, Zhongzao 39, and Zhuliangyou 819) with growth durations of less than 115 days were used in 2015, and four cultivars (Lingliangyou 268, Zhongjiazao 17, Zhongzao 39, and Zhuliangyou 819) with good yield performance in the late season in 2015 were grown in 2016. All cultivars had a growth duration of less than 110 days when grown in the late season in both years. Zhongjiazao 17 produced the maximum grain yield of 9.61 Mg ha−1 with a daily grain yield of 108 kg ha−1 d−1 in the late season in 2015. Averaged across both years, Lingliangyou 268 had the highest grain yield of 8.57 Mg ha−1 with a daily grain yield of 95 kg ha−1 d−1 in the late season. The good yield performance of the early-season rice cultivars grown in the late season was mainly attributable to higher apparent radiation use efficiency. Growth duration and grain yield of early-season rice cultivars grown in the late season were not significantly related to those grown in the early season. Our study suggests that it is feasible to select high-yielding short-duration cultivars from existing early-season rice cultivars for machine-transplanted late-season rice production. Special tests by growing alternative early-season rice cultivars in the late season should be done to determine their growth duration and grain yield for such selection.

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